CPI Aftermath, Iran Escalation & SpaceX IPO Fever: Markets Search for Direction

Thursday, June 11, 2026 | Daily briefing on CPI fallout, Middle East escalation, SpaceX’s record IPO, and crypto market weakness.

Main Theme

Four major themes are driving markets today.

First, the U.S. May CPI report came in hot on the surface but mixed beneath the headline. Annual inflation rose 4.2% year-over-year, matching consensus and marking the fastest pace since April 2023. Monthly CPI increased 0.5%, while core CPI rose only 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% expectation. Core inflation remained at 2.9% annually.

The message from the report is clear: more than 60% of inflation came from energy prices, which surged 3.9% during the month. The Iran conflict is driving oil prices higher, oil is feeding inflation, and inflation is now testing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

President Trump responded on social media, stating that he “loves the inflation” and argued that prices would fall dramatically once the war ends. Markets immediately interpreted the data in two different ways: the hot headline supports a hawkish Fed outlook, while the softer core reading supports a more dovish interpretation.

Second, Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff on Wednesday. The Dow Jones fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq lost 1.98%, and the S&P 500 declined 1.62%.

Oracle dropped more than 10% after hours after announcing plans to raise an additional $20 billion to finance AI infrastructure expansion. Semiconductor stocks remain under structural pressure.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is expected to price its IPO tonight. According to Bloomberg, demand exceeds available shares by roughly four times, with some institutional entities reportedly submitting orders worth as much as $10 billion.

Third, the U.S. military campaign against Iran intensified. CENTCOM announced multiple “self-defense strikes” against Iranian targets, while Iranian state media claimed missile and drone attacks against U.S. vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also revealed that he had authorized a covert operation last month that helped more than 200 commercial ships and over 100 million barrels of oil transit through Hormuz. The statement aligns with earlier JPMorgan estimates suggesting that roughly 2 million barrels per day were moving through the region via tankers operating with disabled transponders.

Iranian military officials declared Hormuz closed to all vessels, while CENTCOM countered that commercial traffic continues to pass through the strait.

Oil prices moved higher again:

• Brent Crude: +2.52% to $95.45
• WTI Crude: +2.94% to $92.68

Fourth, investors are awaiting today’s ECB policy decision. Markets expect the first ECB rate hike since September 2023. Bond traders are increasingly pricing higher global borrowing costs, while the MSCI ACWI has fallen to its lowest level since May 5.

Macro Framework

CPI Structure: Hot Headline, Soft Core

The composition of the May CPI report may be more important than the headline itself.

Key figures:

• Headline CPI: +4.2% YoY
• Monthly CPI: +0.5%
• Energy Inflation: +3.9% MoM
• Core CPI: +0.2% MoM
• Core CPI: +2.9% YoY

Energy accounted for more than 60% of the monthly inflation increase, largely reflecting the impact of the Iran conflict and disruptions around Hormuz.

For the Federal Reserve, the report supports two competing narratives:

Hawkish Interpretation

Headline inflation is accelerating again, suggesting the energy shock is no longer temporary and may begin influencing inflation expectations.

Dovish Interpretation

Core inflation remains contained, indicating that price pressures remain concentrated in energy rather than broadening across the economy.

The June 16–17 FOMC meeting will determine which interpretation dominates policy.

Markets currently expect no rate change, with prediction markets assigning more than a 95% probability to a hold decision.

The key variable is Kevin Warsh’s tone.

A “higher-for-longer” message would likely push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. A more balanced and data-dependent approach could trigger a relief rally in both equities and crypto.

Wirex Trading Head Yves Renno summarized the situation:

“All eyes are on the June 16–17 Fed meeting. Warsh’s tone will determine whether Bitcoin moves toward $68,000–$72,000 or breaks below $60,000.”

Wednesday’s Wall Street Selloff: Dow Loses 953 Points

U.S. markets experienced a broad risk-off session.

Performance:

• Dow Jones: -1.87% (-953 points)
• Nasdaq: -1.98%
• S&P 500: -1.62%

The main catalysts were the hotter headline CPI reading and Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward Iran.

Semiconductor stocks continued to struggle:

• Broadcom: -18.6% weekly
• Coherent: -11.4% weekly
• Applied Optoelectronics: -17.2% weekly

Oracle added further pressure after announcing plans to borrow an additional $20 billion to fund AI infrastructure projects.

The market interpreted the move as evidence that financing the AI buildout is becoming increasingly expensive.

The AI supply chain is now being forced to absorb a “higher-cost capital” environment.

Asian markets followed Wall Street lower overnight:

• MSCI Asia Pacific: -0.8%
• Lowest level in three weeks

U.S.–Iran Tensions: Diplomacy Remains Stalled

Trump’s mixed messaging has reached a new extreme.

After suggesting earlier this week that a deal could be reached within “two or three days,” he later stated that the U.S. would “hit Iran hard again today.”

CENTCOM confirmed new military operations, describing them as defensive multi-target strikes.

Iranian state media reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks against U.S. ships, highlighting the increasingly direct nature of the confrontation.

Trump’s revelation that the U.S. secretly facilitated the movement of over 100 million barrels of oil and more than 200 commercial vessels through Hormuz may prove particularly significant for energy markets.

Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon noted:

“The oil market is better positioned than in previous crises due to record U.S. crude exports, softer Chinese demand, and alternative export routes outside Hormuz. However, the probability of a near-term diplomatic resolution has declined, leaving prices vulnerable to sharp swings.”

Prediction markets increasingly reflect this reality.

Polymarket now assigns only a 35% probability that the Iran conflict ends before the end of 2026, down from 58% in April.

Markets are gradually beginning to price a prolonged conflict scenario.

SpaceX Prices Tonight: $1.8 Trillion and Four Times Oversubscribed

SpaceX is expected to price its IPO tonight and begin trading tomorrow.

Current expectations:

• Share Price: $135
• Valuation: $1.77–1.80 trillion
• Oversubscription: Approximately 4x

Bloomberg reports that some institutional buyers have submitted bids worth up to $10 billion.

Demand remains extremely strong.

However, investors face an important question: can these AI-related mega-IPOs continue satisfying the market’s enormous growth expectations?

The IPO pipeline is rapidly expanding:

• SpaceX: ~$1.8 trillion valuation
• OpenAI: ~$850 billion valuation
• Anthropic: ~$965 billion valuation

History provides a cautionary signal.

Many of the largest IPOs in history—including Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, and Visa—arrived close to major market turning points.

If SpaceX prices well above expectations, it would reinforce the AI boom narrative. If pricing weakens or demand softens, investors may begin viewing it as a “top-of-cycle” signal.

ECB Rate Decision and Nvidia Senate Testimony

Today’s calendar remains packed with market-moving events.

ECB Rate Decision (15:15 TRT)

Markets expect the ECB’s first rate increase since September 2023.

European inflation remains sticky, with core inflation holding around 2.7%–2.8%.

Higher European rates would add another layer of pressure to global borrowing costs and risk assets.

Nvidia CEO Senate Testimony

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

Key topics include:

• Nvidia’s China business
• Compliance with U.S. export restrictions
• Broader U.S.-China technology tensions

The hearing could generate significant volatility for Nvidia and the broader AI sector.

U.S. PPI Report

Consensus expectations:

• Producer Price Index: +6.4% YoY

Crypto

Following yesterday’s CPI release, today’s PPI report will provide additional insight into inflation pressures at the producer level.

Bitcoin trades around $62,624.

BTC is approaching its 200-week moving average, one of the most important long-term support indicators monitored by long-term investors.

Valuation models currently place Bitcoin within the lowest 10% of its historical valuation range, territory typically associated with the later stages of major bear markets.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 9, deep within extreme fear territory.

For comparison:

• One week ago: 11
• One month ago: 48

Such readings often appear after most panic-driven selling has already occurred.

However, historical bear markets frequently transition into lengthy periods of sideways consolidation before recovery begins.

The structural challenge facing Bitcoin has two components:

ETF Demand Continues to Deteriorate

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $213.85 million in net outflows on Wednesday.

Total outflows since the second week of May now exceed $5.72 billion.

Corporate Treasury Demand Is Slowing

Glassnode data shows that Digital Asset Treasury companies, which were previously purchasing more than $500 million worth of Bitcoin daily during April and May, have significantly reduced purchases this month.

According to Glassnode:

“As Bitcoin fell from $74,000 to $60,000, net inflows from corporate treasury firms declined sharply, with daily purchases falling to a fraction of previous levels.”

This suggests that Strategy’s purchases alone are no longer sufficient to offset the broader decline in institutional demand.

Additional pressure comes from regulation.

Prediction markets tracking the U.S. Clarity Act now assign only a 48% probability of passage in 2026, down from 62% earlier this week.

Macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and institutional demand are all weakening simultaneously.

Another important signal is that both Bitcoin and gold continue to decline together.

Gold trades around $4,087 after breaking below a key $4,300 support zone.

Because neither asset generates yield, both remain highly sensitive to expectations of higher interest rates.

This continues to weaken Bitcoin’s “macro hedge” narrative.

Ethereum trades near $1,647, revisiting February lows, while HYPE remains one of the weakest major assets, down 21% on the week.

Bitcoin dominance remains below 58%, its lowest level since September, suggesting capital is leaving the crypto sector entirely rather than rotating into altcoins.

Potential positive catalysts include:

• Soft core inflation
• Strong SpaceX IPO demand
• A balanced Fed message from Warsh

Key risks remain:

• Record ETF outflows
• Weakening corporate treasury demand
• Hormuz-related geopolitical risks
• Potentially hawkish Fed communication

This Week and Next Week’s Calendar

Date	Day	Event
June 11	Thursday	ECB Rate Decision (15:15 TRT) – U.S. PPI Report – Nvidia CEO Senate Testimony – SpaceX IPO Pricing
June 12	Friday	SpaceX Trading Debut (Approx. $1.8T valuation) – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Consensus: 46)
June 16-17	Monday-Tuesday	FOMC Meeting – First meeting under Warsh – Markets expect no rate change
Ongoing	Ongoing	U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation -Trump’s “hit harder today” rhetoric – Ongoing Hormuz crisis
Ongoing	Ongoing	Bitcoin Defending Its 200-Week Moving Average – Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 9 (Extreme Fear)
Ongoing	Ongoing	Oracle’s $20B AI Financing Plan – Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX IPO pipeline expands