Liquidity Shocks Across Global Markets

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Daily briefing on global market sell-offs, SpaceX liquidity shocks, Iran sanction waivers, and shifting AI sentiment.

Main Agenda

We enter Tuesday morning with a dramatic global sell-off wave. First: The Asian front is showing a sell-off unseen in recent months. South Korea’s Kospi hit circuit breakers at the open at -9.25%, closing at -6%. Kosdaq was down -6.27%. The index, which hit a new record close on Monday (9,110), crashed sharply overnight. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were each down -5%+, reflecting a sharp profit-taking wave in the AI supply chain that has carried the year-long rally. On Monday, SK Hynix briefly surpassed Samsung as South Korea’s most valuable company. The Nikkei fell -3.25% to 70,003, snapping an eight-session winning streak (following Monday’s record high above 72,000). The Topix fell -0.79%. US futures are also down: S&P -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.99%, Dow -55 points. Hang Seng -1.97%, Shanghai CSI 300 -1.55%.

Second, SpaceX’s dramatic drop: It fell -16% to $154.60 on Monday, marking its third consecutive negative session. Down a total of -23% in three days, $600 billion in market value evaporated—equivalent to nearly half of Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization. SpaceX had a valuation of $2.5 trillion a week ago; it is now slightly over $2 trillion. The trigger: the company announced a bond issuance of at least $20 billion, its first time ever entering the debt markets. The purpose: to finance the AI infrastructure investment related to xAI, which it acquired in February. SpaceX chose debt over new equity to prevent share dilution. The company also reported a $100.8 billion cash position, just a few weeks after its IPO. The Hyperliquid SpaceX futures contract fell an additional -15% on Tuesday to around $151. Ark Invest bought $32.5 million worth of SpaceX shares during the dip. It is now the fourth-largest holding in the ARKK ETF with a 4.46% weight. Cathie Wood’s 2030 base-case valuation for SpaceX is $2.5 trillion, and the bull case is $3.1 trillion. Structural note: SpaceX trades as a “thin float stock” with low liquidity and large movements. The 16% single-session drop reflects this structural fragility.

Third, a sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven. Monday numbers: Alphabet -5% (worst daily performance of the year: brain drain concerns triggered by two top AI researchers leaving for competitors), Amazon -5%, Microsoft -3.18% (trading at $367 today), Meta -2%, NVDA -0.97% ($208.65, still #1 with a $5.05 trillion market cap). AMD +2.65% (counter-trend), TSLA +1.14%. Communication Services was the leading losing sector at -3.83%, followed by Consumer Discretionary at -2.33%. Seven sectors remain green, led by Real Estate +1.38%, Energy +1.24%, and Healthcare +0.87%. Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders noted: “Retail investors are still interested in AI and tech, they just aren’t as active in individual stocks as before. There is a rotation toward ETFs.”

Fourth, Greenspan has passed away. Wall Street legend and former Fed Chairman (1987-2006) Alan Greenspan passed away at the age of 100. Known as the “Maestro,” Greenspan anticipated the dot-com bubble early with his 1996 warning of “irrational exuberance”—a warning proven right when the bubble burst four years later. The question of how long the AI craze will last this time is now preoccupying Wall Street.

Fifth, the US has suspended Iran sanctions for 60 days (the Treasury granted a waiver until August 21). Brent is under $77,47, and WTI is under $72,76. Finally, Starmer resigned on Monday. Burnham could become Prime Minister by mid-July.

Macro Framework

Iran Sanction Waivers: Economic Relief Officially Begins

The US Treasury issued a 60-day license late Monday night, permitting the sale, production, and delivery of oil and related products to Iran until August 21. Imports of Iranian crude oil into the US are also permitted, and payments can be made in dollars. This marks the first concrete economic step of the Lake Lucerne agreement. Vance stated, “Tehran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country, and mechanisms are being established to handle frozen assets abroad and manage the ceasefire.” A key detail: under a process developed by White House representative Jared Kushner, frozen Iranian funds will be controlled by the US and Qatar and can only be used for purchasing US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Trump stated: “The money we released will go to our farmers.” However, Central Bank of Iran Governor Hemmati stated there is no such obligation and that frozen funds can be used for non-sanctioned goods. This shows that divergence on the agreement’s implementation persists. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said: “We have not yet discussed nuclear issues or made new commitments.” In other words, Vance’s optimistic tone and Tehran’s more cautious approach are moving in parallel. Trump noted in a press release: “If Iran does not fulfill its commitments or behave well, I will do whatever I need to do.” Technical talks will continue throughout the week in Bürgenstock. On the Lebanon-Israel front, the new ceasefire has been partially implemented since Friday, though Israel stated it will maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon.

Yen Breaches 161: The 1986 Threshold is Historically Very Close

On the FX front, the yen breached a critical band: USD/JPY is trading at 161.69. Crossing the 161.96 threshold would mark the weakest level since 1986, a 40-year historical low. The current level is just 27 pips away from that threshold. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama repeated the rhetoric of being “ready to intervene at the appropriate timing,” but the market is pricing in that interventions are ineffective. The 2-year Treasury yields 4.23%, and hawkish Fed expectations continue to pressure the yen. The Yuan front is also tense: USD/CNH is at 6.7855, with the Chinese yuan weakening -2.75% year-to-date. Sterling is at $1.3231, amid cautious optimism regarding the Burnham transition. OCBC commented: “Burnham will comply with the current fiscal framework; implementation will be key.”

Greenspan’s Passing and the Parallel to AI Exuberance

The passing of Alan Greenspan at age 100 marks a symbolic moment. Greenspan served as Fed Chairman from 1987 to 2006, the longest-serving head before Ben Bernanke. His warning of “irrational exuberance” in the stock market during a December 1996 speech is famous, a signal given four years before the dot-com bubble burst. Now, markets are asking a parallel question: how long can the AI rally last? Last week’s warning from Buffett, NVDA’s valuation above $5T, SpaceX’s -23% drop 23 days post-IPO, and the Mag7 sell-off highlight how pressing this question has become. Greenspan’s legacy also includes a “cards close to the chest” policy communication philosophy. Warsh dramatically shortened the CFTC statement this week, triggering commentary of a “return to the Greenspan days.” Structural commentary: The Greenspan era was a paradigm of minimal communication + free markets; Warsh is moving in the same direction but with a hawkish tone. This is negative for risk assets in the short term but positive for central bank independence in the medium term.

Starmer Resigns, the Burnham Path: Uncertainty for Sterling

A historic transition in UK politics: Keir Starmer resigned on Monday. He could not withstand the pressure following Andy Burnham’s Makerfield election victory. Burnham was sworn in as an MP on Monday and could become Prime Minister by mid-July (barring a leadership race deadlock). Nominations open on July 9. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting also backed Burnham, easing concerns of a long and divisive leadership contest. This occurs on the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum (June 23, 2016). Britain will see its seventh Prime Minister in 10 years, a Japan-like “revolving door” position. Sterling and gilts remain stable for now. Investors will closely watch Burnham’s policy direction, as details remain scarce so far. Critical issues include managing the debt burden and reviving stagnant growth. Burnham has previously advocated for strict regulation in AI, Big Tech, and other sectors, which could pose a medium-term risk factor for British tech stocks.

This Week: Heavy Data and Earnings Calendar

The week ahead features a highly packed calendar. Today (Tuesday): US, UK, and Eurozone PMI data (purchasing managers’ index: new orders, employment plans). Earnings from Carnival, FedEx, Cerebras, KB Home, and Korn Ferry. The MSCI annual market classification review: South Korea wants to enter the Developed Markets watch list, while Indonesia is at risk of being downgraded from Emerging to Frontier Market. The structural risk for Turkey has been monitored since last week. Wednesday: Micron earnings (a critical test for the AI supply chain: the stock is +300%+ year-to-date, briefly touching a $1 trillion market cap). Thursday: May reading of the PCE inflation data (the Fed’s favorite), expected to rise above April’s 3.8%. Earnings from McCormick, Darden, BlackBerry, Commercial Metals, and Winnebago.

Crypto

BTC is trading around $62,900 this morning, down -1.69% daily and -5.29% weekly. It kept pace with the Asian tech sell-off but did not decouple dramatically. SpaceX lost $600 billion in market cap over three days, nearly half of Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion market value. Over the same period, BTC fell less than 1%. Other major cryptos saw broad selling: ETH $1,689, SOL $70, XRP $1.11. DOGE is -8.31% over 7 days, and HYPE is -11.26% over 7 days (the previous week’s star performer fell sharply). The heaviest loss came from ZEC at -19.27% weekly: selling continues following the privacy pool bug opened at the end of May and the Anthropic Opus 4.8 discovery. Tron is the sole positive outlier (+1.3% daily, +4.21% weekly), maintaining its defensive positioning.

The SpaceX-BTC comparison offers a structural lesson: SpaceX trades on a thin float, meaning small liquidity leads to large movements. The BTC market is deeper and more liquid, absorbing the same week smoothly. However, both are driven by the same engine: AI risk appetite. Monday’s drop wasn’t limited to SpaceX; the Nasdaq fell -1.32%, and Alphabet and Amazon also slid as investors questioned whether investments by AI mega-caps would pay off. AI risk appetite helped crypto recover this month; deeper cracks on this front could erode the demand base supporting BTC. Conversely, oil is a counter-factor: the Lake Lucerne process is progressing, the US issued a 60-day license, and Brent is under $78. Cheaper oil softens the inflationary pressures keeping the Fed hawkish, providing a slow tailwind for risk assets. Caught between these two forces—the shaking AI trade and the easing oil picture—BTC is drifting toward the lower end of the range it held all month.

Three macro triggers for the next four weeks: (1) July 2 US June employment report—a direct test of how well hiring is holding up. (2) July 14 Consumer Price Index—the core inflation gauge, checking if price growth is truly easing toward the target. (3) The mid-to-late July start of Q2 corporate earnings—beginning with banks and concluding with forward guidance from major AI companies. Two crypto-specific warning signs: First, the Coinbase premium (the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other venues—a rough indicator of US institutional demand) widened downward. This indicates weak US institutional buying. Second, Strategy’s STRC preferred stock fell even further from last week’s record lows, briefly dipping below $84 on Tuesday. Bitfire noted: “There is no immediate blow-up risk, but the uncertainty surrounding Strategy regarding ‘what if they are forced to sell?’ is real and keeping sentiment suppressed.” For Bitcoin, the critical level remains the same one that defined June: a clear breach of the $59-60K floor formed earlier this month will signal that the sell-off has entered a new phase.

Commodity Environment

The oil front continues its sharp decline. Brent is at $77.47 (closed Monday down -3%, with an additional -1.65% today), and WTI is at $72.76 (-1.77% daily). Brent is -36% from its conflict peak and -27% monthly. The trigger is three-layered: (1) The US Treasury issued a 60-day waiver license: Iranian oil is officially back in the market. (2) Tanker traffic revived in Hormuz: 20+ tankers passed on Monday. (3) Citi noted: “The extreme oversupply is clearing out.” Insurers still demand high war risk premiums, maintaining the stance that this is a “fragile relief, not a return to normalization.” For the Strait of Hormuz, the Omani Foreign Minister confirmed a commitment to international law and toll-free safe passage (negotiations with Iran are ongoing). The warning from Quantum Strategy is crucial: “The supply abundance stems from inventory liquidation rather than a production recovery; once stockpiles run dry, the market will be left short.” Structural range: $75-82; if broken, sub-$70; if the deal collapses, a $90+ reflex bounce.

A dramatic picture on the precious metals front. Gold is at $4,113 (-1.90% daily), down -4.61% weekly. The combination of Friday’s hawkish Fed pivot + the US dollar resurgence continues. Silver is at $62.26 (-4.27% daily), a sharp -11.03% drop weekly, signaling panic across the industrial metals front. Copper is at $6.27 (-2.37% daily). Palladium held up relatively well ($1,293, -1% daily). Structural commentary: The trio of pressure on non-yielding assets + US dollar strength is severely negative for gold and silver. As long as the Fed maintains its hawkish tone, the structural positive channel for metals remains closed. If Thursday’s PCE data comes in below expectations, a rebound for gold is possible. If it comes in hot, a test below $4,000 is highly probable.

The agricultural front is in upward momentum. Cocoa exploded to $4,621 (+9.06% daily), +14.44% weekly, and +45.31% over 3 months (a dramatic recovery). Coffee is at $267 (-0.30% daily but +5.78% weekly). Wheat is at $602 (-0.82% daily but +0.63% weekly). All three commodities confirmed the Long positions from previous weeks: decoupled from the macro, moving on their own momentum. Structural supply concerns in Cocoa (West African weather conditions, Ghana production issues) remain supportive. Today’s Chevron-Microsoft deal provides an additional positive driver: Chevron will power the Project Kilby data center in West Texas under a 20-year natural gas agreement with Microsoft (2.7 GW: equivalent to 2 million households). It will begin supplying power in 2028. GE Vernova will supply large gas turbines, and Caterpillar will also provide turbines. Microsoft plans $190 billion in capex for 2026 (+61% compared to 2025). This demonstrates that AI infrastructure demand is structurally drawing on traditional energy sources like natural gas and nuclear (the Three Mile Island restart).

This Week’s Calendar

Date	Day	Development
June 23	Tuesday	US/UK/Eurozone PMI
June 23	Tuesday	MSCI: South Korea (DM watchlist?)
June 24	Wednesday	Micron earnings (AI supply test)
June 25	Thursday	US May PCE inflation (Fed favorite)
June 26	Friday	Rebalancing peak ahead of the final Q2 trading day
July 2	Thursday	US June employment report (Bitfire warning)
July 14	Monday	US CPI inflation (next big test)