Global Market Analysis: Dual-Channel AI Surges, Hormuz Unclogs, and the Critical PCE Test

Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Daily briefing on Micron’s historic AI margins, the critical macro PCE test, easing Hormuz tensions, and structural crypto stress.

Main Agenda

Thursday morning opens with dramatic developments on two parallel tracks. First, on the AI front, Micron reported historic earnings: its gross margin hit 84.9%, vastly outperforming the previous quarter’s 74.9% and the 39% recorded a year ago. This makes it Wall Street’s new margin king, leaving Nvidia at 75% and Meta at 81.9% in the rearview mirror. The stock jumped +15% in after-hours trading. Revenue came in at $41.46 billion (vs. expectations of $35.84 billion), with an EPS of $25.11 (vs. expectations of $20.78). Quarterly revenue more than quadrupled from $9.3 billion a year earlier. Q4 guidance is set at $50 billion (compared to $11.3 billion last year and analyst expectations of $43.58 billion). Data center revenue surged more than sevenfold from $1.53B to $11.5B. Cloud memory jumped more than +300% to $13.77B. The mobile and client business segment expanded by +250% to reach $11.52 billion. The company signed “16 long-term customer agreements” (spanning 3–5 years) with data center operators and automotive manufacturers, representing a financial commitment of $22 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated: “Our customers recognize that significant time is required to resolve memory and storage supply deficits; we expect gradual improvement by 2028.” These results are highly likely to reverse Tuesday’s chip sell-off, offering a definitive answer to whether AI investment is structural.

Second, a parallel development emerged from the Asian AI sector: South Korea’s SK Hynix filed for a Nasdaq ADR listing valued at $29.4 billion. This marks the second-largest US listing in history after SpaceX (which holds the record with an $85.7 billion IPO). SK Hynix briefly flipped Samsung Electronics on Monday to become Seoul’s most valuable company. Its shares soared +11% in today’s Asian session. Combined with Micron’s results, this reinforces the structurally positive outlook for AI memory demand. Qualcomm also jumped +15% upon announcing its Dragonfly C1000 CPU (designed for data centers and agentic AI applications, which Meta will begin deploying in 2028).

Third, oil has retreated to pre-war levels. WTI fell below $69.40, dipping under $70 for the first time since March. Brent slid to $72.51 (-1.67% daily), marking a sharp weekly drop of -9%. More than 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels of crude oil have exited the Strait of Hormuz, with most bound for Asian destinations by early August. Non-Iranian vessels that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for three months are finally moving. Citi’s forecast revision is critical: “A major de-escalation is our base case; we expect Brent to fall to $60–65 within 6–12 months. As Hormuz flows normalize, prices should decline.” However, risks linger: Iran’s IRGC Navy issued a warning on Thursday stating, “Only routes designated by Tehran are permitted; vessels violating the rules will face action.”

Fourth, BTC dropped to $59,175 yesterday, hitting its lowest point since early June. The bear market low flagged in Wintermute’s Tuesday note was tested exactly. Approximately $1 billion in leveraged positions across major cryptocurrencies were liquidated, with BTC alone accounting for $430 million in long liquidations. ETH, SOL, and tokens associated with Micron/Sandisk fell in tandem. Micron’s subsequent earnings stabilized the AI trade, pulling BTC back up to $61,500. It is currently hovering around $60,800, down -10% from the weekly peak of $65,500. The collapse of the AI trade dragged crypto down on Monday, and now that very same trade has revived it, demonstrating an ongoing structural, bidirectional relationship.

Fifth, the Trump-Iran rhetoric persists. Trump claimed, “Iran informed me that there will be no tolls, insurance premiums, or any fees for the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that “unfrozen Iranian assets will be used to purchase US agricultural products” (a statement confirmed by Bessent). However, officials in Tehran flatly rejected this on Tuesday, stating, “Washington cannot dictate how we spend our assets. Agricultural purchases will be based on price and quality, not on conditions imposed by the US.” The White House sent an $87.6 billion supplemental budget request to Congress for the Iran conflict and farm aid, which Democrats immediately opposed. Meanwhile, Europe is facing a record-breaking heatwave; 68,000 homes in France lost power, and schools and transport networks were disrupted across the UK, Germany, and Switzerland. The EU’s Copernicus agency warned: “Europe has been warming at twice the global average rate since the 1980s.”

Macro Framework

PCE Today at 15:30: Testing the Fed’s Hawkish Stance

Today’s primary macro test is the PCE inflation data—the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Headline PCE for May is expected at 4.1% year-over-year, which would mark the highest level since April 2023 and sit well above the Fed’s 2% target. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) is projected at 3.3–3.4%, the highest since October 2023.

Potential Scenarios:

1. Hot Core PCE: This would reinforce expectations of Fed interest rate hikes, driving the dollar index (currently at its highest since April 2025) even higher, while putting pressure on equities and crypto. Fed funds futures have fully priced in a 25bp hike for September, with 43bp priced in for the year.
2. Cool Core PCE: This would ease inflation anxieties, slow down the DXY rally, and open the door for a relief rally in BTC and equities.

Crucial Note: The May PCE data is backward-looking and may still carry traces of the energy shock experienced during the Iran conflict. The market, however, looks ahead—and oil prices have already returned to pre-war levels.

The dollar index stands at 100.9, its highest since April 2025, while the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.23%. This exerts additional pressure on crypto: a strong dollar makes dollar-priced assets (including BTC) more expensive for foreign buyers.

Hormuz Traffic Normalizes, but Iranian Risks Linger

Physical normalization in the Strait of Hormuz is progressing. More than 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels of crude oil departed the strait following the US-Iran agreement. Non-Iranian vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf for three months are moving out in phases. The evacuation plan for over 11,000 mariners, announced by the IMO on Tuesday, has been put into action.

The statement from Tehran’s IRGC Navy remains a key variable: “Safe passage will only be permitted through routes designated by Tehran; vessels breaking the rules will face action.” This indicates that Iran maintains its emphasis on sovereignty regarding the implementation of the agreement. Furthermore, Iran’s rejection of the Trump-Bessent claim that “unfrozen assets will be used for US agricultural products” represents a core point of friction in the MoU’s execution. This is likely to remain a source of tension in the remaining weeks of the 60-day roadmap. Citi’s base case remains intact: “A major de-escalation has occurred. We expect Brent to fall into the $60–65 band within 6–12 months. As Hormuz flows normalize, the temporary summer rally should fade.”

Asia’s Dual Channels: Relief Rally vs. Hong Kong Weakness

Asian markets experienced a powerful relief rally this morning on the back of Micron’s earnings and the SK Hynix listing announcement. The Nikkei jumped +4.89% to close at a record high of 72,556 (surpassing Monday’s peak of 72,353). The Kospi rallied +6.30% to 9,004, staging a V-shaped recovery from Tuesday’s -9.25% plunge, clawing back half its losses in two days after circuit breakers were triggered. Samsung added +4% (after touching +10% intraday), and SK Hynix surged +11%.

In China, the picture was different: Shanghai ticked up a mere +0.10%, while the Hang Seng fell -1.64% to 23,028, logging a weekly loss of -3.75%. This divergence is critical: AI supply chain nations (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) are rallying due to the Micron effect, whereas China (Hang Seng) remains weighed down by domestic consumption pressures despite headlines out of the “Summer Davos.” The Chinese yuan continues to weaken, with USDCNH at 6.8045 (+0.21% daily), while the ASX 200 slid -0.67%. Structurally speaking, the AI growth narrative remains intact, and the softening of Chinese commodities is providing a layer of resilience following Tuesday’s crisis. European markets closed mixed: the DAX shed -0.62%, the FTSE100 gained +0.31%, and the CAC40 rose +0.54%. The BIST100 dropped -1.43% to 14,331, reflecting a combination of Turkey-specific MSCI risk and broader global uncertainty.

Yen at 161.81: Just 15 Pips Away from the 1986 Threshold

The FX market remains the epicenter of structural stress. USDJPY is trading at 161.81, sitting just 15 pips away from the critical 161.96 threshold. Breaching this level would mark the yen’s weakest performance since 1986—a 40-year low. Tokyo continues to issue verbal intervention warnings, but the market is largely brushing them aside. With the 2-year US Treasury yield at 4.23%, the Fed’s hawkish posture keeps structural pressure squarely on the yen. The dollar index rests at 100.9, its highest since April 2025. EURUSD is at 1.1366 (-1.23% weekly), and GBPUSD is at 1.3176 (-0.94% weekly), as Sterling maintains a cautious stance regarding the Burnham transition. The yuan is softening further, with USDCNH at 6.8045 (+0.70% weekly), which may be a quiet, managed devaluation responding to Chinese export pressures. The AUDUSD dropped sharply to 0.6897 (-1.74% weekly), as commodity currencies feel the weight of oil’s decline.

Crypto

BTC is trading at $61,681 this morning. It dipped to $59,175 overnight before recovering to $61,500. It remains down -10% from Monday’s peak of $65,500. Liquidation analysis reveals structural stress: yesterday’s drop triggered $1 billion in total crypto liquidations, with $430 million in long liquidations on BTC alone. According to CoinGlass data, $1.6 billion in leveraged long positions are clustered just below $58,000; breaking this level could accelerate the downward momentum. Whale selling is structural: Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold 45,074 BTC over the last 8 days, highlighting the scale of institutional de-risking.

For BTC, the critical support levels to watch are:

• $59,000: The new “line in the sand.” Support held here twice over the last two weeks (June 5 and overnight). The June 5 sell-off bounced from $59K, sparking a relief rally to $67K.
• $61,800–$62,000: A heavy cluster of sell orders. This zone will either spark a short squeeze on an upward break or act as a rejection point.

Historical data indicates that the last three times BTC fell to its 200-week moving average, it faced prolonged periods of weakness—lasting roughly 9 months in 2015, 6 months in 2018, and over 6 quarters post-2022. Following this pattern, a “crypto winter” looks more probable than a rapid V-shaped relief rally. If support fails, $55,000 becomes the target for the next cyclical low.

BTC faces a three-layered combination of pressures:

1. Spot BTC ETFs recorded their 6th consecutive week of net outflows, hitting a record cumulative exit of over $6 billion in 30 days. This indicates institutional de-risking by the exact group of buyers that drove the initial cycle.
2. The macro backdrop of a hawkish Fed coupled with a dominant US dollar.
3. The June 30 quarterly options expiry, which carries a notional value of $10.6 billion and is keeping the market highly volatile.

Until net flows reverse cleanly, relief rallies are likely to sell off. Today’s PCE print and next Friday’s options expiry serve as the two major tests. On a positive note, the stabilization of the AI trade via Micron, SK Hynix, and Qualcomm could provide medium-term support for BTC, as structural AI risk appetite feeds positively back into crypto demand.

Commodity Environment

The oil market has fully retraced to pre-war levels, with Brent at $72,64 and WTI at $69,60. WTI dipped below $70 for the first time since March, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in February. The structural recovery signal is built on three layers:

1. More than 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels of oil have cleared Hormuz, arriving in Asia by early August.
2. The US Treasury’s 60-day sanctions waiver is active.
3. Citi’s base case targets Brent at $60–65 within 6–12 months.

Energy equities are reflecting this shift, with XOM down -2.03% daily ($136,90) and CVX losing -2.57% daily ($171,45) as oil majors experience a sell-off. Nonetheless, the IRGC Navy’s warning that “only our routes are permitted” keeps a residual risk premium alive. Trump’s threats toward the DOJ are largely symbolic, but downward pressure on retail pump prices could persist. The upcoming OPEC+ September meeting will be pivotal; if production discipline falters, oil could test the $60 range.

Precious metals suffered dramatic declines. Gold is trading at $3,991, undergoing a critical test below the $4,000 mark. Silver dropped to $57,11, as panic takes on a structural character across industrial metals. Copper lost its grip on the $6 threshold, sliding to $5,98, while Palladium sits at $1,169. Structurally, the headwind of non-yielding assets, a hawkish Fed, and a surging dollar has firmly shut down the positive channel for gold. Today’s PCE print will dictate the next leg: a cool reading could spark a relief bounce for gold, while a hot print could pave the way toward $3,800. Silver’s -14% weekly drop places it among its worst weekly losses since the 2008 financial crisis.

Agricultural commodities have completely decoupled from the rest of the asset class. Cocoa reached $4,902; its RSI is in overbought territory at 74.13, yet momentum remains exceptionally strong. The structural drivers for cocoa include ongoing West African weather issues, production bottlenecks in Ghana, and a heavy accumulation of speculative long positions. Coffee stands at $291,55, experiencing a minor intraday pullback while retaining its structural upside. Wheat is consolidating near the 600 level at $595.50. The agricultural complex is entirely ignoring the broader macroeconomic narrative, moving strictly on its own supply and demand dynamics.

Equities Front

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P ticking down -0.10% (to 7,358), the Nasdaq dropping -0.43%, and the Dow gaining +0.35%. The Russell 2000 edged up +0.37%, while the VIX retreated -4.41% to 18.63. The markets found their footing after Tuesday’s semiconductor sell-off. Following Micron’s blockbuster earnings report, its stock jumped +15% in after-hours trading, which boosted Nasdaq 100 futures by +1.8% ahead of Thursday’s opening.

This momentum echoed globally: SK Hynix gained +11% in Asia, Samsung added +4%, and the Kospi surged +6.30%. Wednesday’s close saw Nvidia at $199 (-0.52%), stubbornly holding below $200, while oil majors faced selling pressure (XOM -2.03%, CVX -2.57%). For today and tomorrow, the combined impact of Qualcomm’s Dragonfly C1000 ecosystem rollout and SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR application could catalyze a sector-wide rally across the AI supply chain. The structural question remains: how sustainable is this momentum if the PCE print comes in hot?

Looking ahead to next week, Alphabet’s inclusion in the Dow on June 29 (replacing Verizon) introduces an explicit index rotation dynamic. Cerebras (CBRS) managed a +5% recovery after tumbling -11% in Tuesday’s after-hours session; fears surrounding its Q2 gross margin guidance hit of 36–38% have stabilized, though the broader debate over AI chip competition continues.

Remaining Weekly Calendar & Upcoming Week

Date	Day	Event
June 25	Thursday	US May PCE at 15:30 TSİ (Expected: Headline 4.1%, Core 3.3–3.4%)
June 25	Thursday	Earnings: McCormick, Darden, BlackBerry, Commercial Metals
June 26	Friday	Deribit quarterly options expiry ($10.6 billion notional value)
June 26	Friday	Peak rebalancing ahead of Q2’s final trading days | FedEx Freight earnings
June 29	Monday	Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow Jones | New index rotation begins
June 30	Tuesday	Final trading day of Q2 | Quarter-end institutional flows
July 2	Thursday	US June Employment Report (Bitfire Warning)