Global Markets Briefing: Oil Surges Past $100 as Bond and Tech Sell-Offs Deepen

Friday, July 24, 2026 | Daily briefing on Red Sea supply shocks, inflation fears, tech cash burn, and Bitcoin’s decoupling.

Market Summary

Brent Crude surpassed $100. Following the Houthis hitting two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, prices jumped 7% yesterday to close at $100.69—the first time above $100 since May 26. Trading around $101 this morning, oil is up 14.6% weekly and 36% monthly. Only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest count since May 7. The risk of supply disruption facing the market is at its highest level of the entire war.

The bond market was shaken by inflation fears. The US 10-year yield rose to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025; the 30-year approached a 19-year peak at 5.17% and remains above 5% for its longest stretch since 2007. The probability of a Fed rate hike next week rose to one-in-three; a week ago, no rate hike was expected. Two hikes are now fully priced in by January.

AI spending delivered its first major bill. Following cash burn at Alphabet and Tesla, the ‘Magnificent Seven’ fell 4.8% yesterday, wiping out $797 billion in market capitalization—their worst day since the April 2025 tariff sell-off. Tesla fell 14.5%, Alphabet dropped 7%. The group of seven is now 11% below its late-May record high, with two trillion dollars eroded.

Bitcoin decoupled during this storm. Trading around $65,300, its daily loss was under 1%, with a weekly gain of over 2%. Moving in the shadow of chip stocks for months, this could be the first signal of a breakup for Bitcoin; however, because mining companies have transformed into AI data center operators, it is too early to say the link is permanently broken.

New tariffs came into force. Citing Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the US Trade Representative imposed tariffs between 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners over forced labor concerns, covering 99.4% of US imports. Australia, China, Singapore, and South Korea fall into the 12.5% bracket; Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia, and India are in the 10% bracket. Most partners rejected the justification but announced no retaliation.

Intel provided the night’s only bright spot: Revenue increased 25% to $16.1 billion, its fastest growth since 2011; the stock rose 4–9% after hours. But Asia didn’t even buy this. The KOSPI fell 5–6% today (triggering a sell-side circuit breaker), and the Nikkei slipped 2.8%. News that SK Hynix’s ADR conversion quota was filled closed the arbitrage window, sending the stock down 3.5%.

Main Agenda

Brent Surpasses $100: Following the announcement that the Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, Brent rose 7% to close at $100.69, breaking above $100 for the first time since May 26 and touching $102 intraday. Trading around $101 this morning, it is heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The weekly increase stands at 14.6% and the monthly gain at 36%; throughout July, oil prices have climbed nearly 40%. WTI hit $91.20, its highest level since June 11, with a weekly gain of 11.8%.

What is driving prices now is no longer a threat, but measurable disruption. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, only one tanker passed through Hormuz on Thursday—the lowest figure recorded since May 7. In the Red Sea, the pipeline and terminal route used by Saudi Arabia to bypass Hormuz is under threat. The potential supply disruptions facing the market are the largest seen throughout the war; oil flows through Hormuz have essentially dried up, and there are clear risks to Saudi flows through the Red Sea.

A third front has quietly opened: Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced that companies temporarily curbed production following suspected drone strikes targeting the main export terminal on the Black Sea. One source noted that production at the country’s largest field dropped by more than half. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium carries approximately 2% of global daily crude supply. As long as transport disruptions persist and tensions do not ease, prices are likely to remain around or above $100.

On the military side, the US struck Iran for the 13th consecutive night, and Trump stated he would hold Iran responsible for the Red Sea attacks, promising “severe military punishment.” War powers debates in Congress also ended in division: The House of Representatives passed a resolution requiring Trump to withdraw forces by a vote of 214 to 208; hours later, the Senate rejected its own version 49 to 47.

The Inflation Question Reopened, Bonds Priced It Harshly. Oil’s return to triple digits reversed the optimism seen in June data overnight. The US 10-year yield rose to 4.71%, its highest level since January 2025, rising roughly 17 basis points over the week. The 30-year yield stands at 5.17%, just below its 19-year peak of 5.20%, and remains above 5% for its longest stretch since 2007. Benchmark borrowing costs in Europe climbed to levels not seen since 2011.

Interest rate expectations transformed completely within a single week: The market now assigns a one-in-three probability to a Fed rate hike next week and fully prices in two moves by January. Two of the world’s busiest maritime corridors are under threat in the same month, and markets are only just beginning to figure out what this means; the ceasefire has collapsed, oil is back above $100, and the decline that gave the Fed breathing room may already be reversing. Rather than a short-lived spike, this represents a genuine reopening of the inflation question.

However, it is not just oil straining the bond market; massive credit demand emerging to finance AI investments is also pushing rates higher. The ECB held rates steady yesterday, but Lagarde warned that new conflicts in the Middle East and the rebound in oil pose upside risks to the eurozone inflation outlook; the market is pricing in a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike in September. Today’s PMI data releases are critical: A positive surprise in US data could push the probability of a July rate hike to 50%.

The Magnificent Seven’s Worst Day: $797 Billion Evaporated. Weeks of accumulating anxiety over AI spending erupted yesterday. Results announced by Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday evening intensified concerns that Big Tech is pouring money into infrastructure at a rate that returns cannot justify. The group fell 4.8% in a single day, erasing $797 billion in market value—their worst day since the April 2025 tariff sell-off. The group is now 11% below its late-May record high, with two trillion dollars in value erased since that peak.

Tesla fell 14.5%, marking its worst day since March 2025, while Alphabet dropped 7%, recording its steepest daily decline since May 2025. On the index side, the S&P 500 fell 1.21% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.15%—both posting their worst performances since June 23. The Dow fell in five out of six days, losing 1%.

The core issue here is more than earnings disappointment. Cheap open-source models emerging from China and signs that companies are being more frugal with AI service spending had already revived questions regarding return on investment. Alphabet raising its annual investment target to $205 billion and Musk declaring 2026 a “massive investment year” forced these questions to be asked loudly.

The only positive news of the night came from Intel: Revenue grew 25% to $16.1 billion, its fastest quarterly growth since 2011. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 42 cents, beating expectations, and the stock rose after hours. However, even this result failed to halt the chip sell-off in Asia—the best detail illustrating the market’s mood. On the Google front, a second piece of negative news arrived from Brussels: EU regulators issued the company its first fine under the Digital Markets Act—890 million euros—for favoring its own services.

New Tariffs Citing Forced Labor: 60 Countries, 99% of Trade. The US Trade Representative imposed tariffs on 60 economies on Thursday based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing these countries’ failure to enforce bans on goods produced with forced labor. The new tariffs replace the 10% global tariff introduced as a stopgap measure after the Supreme Court found emergency-power-based tariffs unlawful in February, which expired today.

An assessment by the Peterson Institute highlights the core of the matter: This is not an enforcement of labor standards, but rather a mechanism to externalize the US import ban on Chinese goods and an attempt to re-establish the tariff regime invalidated by the court.

Reactions from countries were firm but measured; none announced retaliatory measures. Australian Trade Minister Farrell called the tariffs unjustified and incompatible with the free trade agreement, demanding their removal and reminding that his country possesses some of the world’s strongest measures against forced labor. Brazil, placed in the 12.5% bracket, called the decision arbitrary; President Lula stated they were open to negotiations, but if they cannot sell to the US, they will pivot to other markets. For Brazil, the new duty stacks on top of a separate 25% tariff imposed this month, bringing the total barrier to 37.5%—approaching the 50% level deemed unlawful last year.

Canada offered the mildest response; it sits in the 10% bracket, with USMCA-compliant goods remaining exempt. For Asia, the impact appears limited: Tianchen Xu from the Economist Intelligence Unit notes that electronic products, from consumer devices to chips, have been consistently exempted under the second Trump administration, and the region will continue to benefit from these exceptions. Market reactions confirmed this; as Reuters put it, the tariff news didn’t even raise eyebrows, as the agenda is dominated by oil and interest rates.

Macro Framework

Yen at Four-Decade Lows, Inflation Rises Again in Japan

The US dollar is gaining support from rising yields, with the dollar index reaching a monthly high of 101.40. The yen remains stuck at a 40-year low around 163.80, and this time the warning came from Washington: The US Treasury stated that excessive currency volatility is undesirable. Japan had conducted yen-buying operations in April and May when the 160 level was breached; verbal warnings have recurred since then, but their impact remains limited.

Today’s inflation data complicates Tokyo’s task: Core inflation rebounded in June to 1.6% from a four-year low, marking its first increase since March. Headline inflation rose from 1.5% to 1.7%. Conversely, the metric excluding fresh food and energy slowed to 1.7%, its lowest level since August 2022. Thanks to government subsidies, energy prices fell by only 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a 2.5% decline in May.

In short, subsidies protect the consumer, but companies are feeling the full brunt of the cost shock: The June Producer Price Index came in at 7.1%, its highest level since March 2023. The central bank’s meeting next week will take place against this backdrop. Among other currencies, the euro slipped to $1.1383 and the British pound to $1.3312; both are on track to close the week with losses.

Gold Succumbs to Rising Yields

Precious metals lost the battle between the war premium and rate pressure this week. Gold trades at $4,025 today after dropping 2% yesterday, while silver fell to $57.65 following yesterday’s 3.4% loss. The logic is simple: Non-yielding assets lose appeal in an environment where 10-year yields rise to 4.71%. Palladium is closing the week in the red at $1,235.

In industrial metals, copper slipped to $6.32, though its monthly gain of 6.4% remains intact. Wheat stands at $703.75, just 1% below its annual peak, holding a monthly gain of 20%. Energy equities remain the most consistent winners of the war: Exxon rose to $156.89 and Chevron to $194.42, bringing their monthly gains to 11–12%.

Crypto

Bitcoin at $65,300: Decouples From Chip Stocks for the First Time in Months

The most striking aspect of yesterday’s sell-off was Bitcoin’s non-participation. While nearly $800 billion evaporated from major US tech stocks, Bitcoin held in the $65,300–$65,400 range; its daily loss was under 1%, and its weekly gain remains above 2%. This is a rare moment of independence for an asset that has moved like a reflection of the AI cycle for months.

Throughout July, the relationship was almost mechanical: When chip stocks rose, Bitcoin rose; when they stumbled, it fell. It dropped sharply last Friday on news of a new model from China, then hit a two-week high this week as those same stocks recovered.

Now the question is: Is this the beginning of a true break, or an exception for a single session? There is a connection that warrants caution: Because Bitcoin miners have converted themselves into AI data center operators, a sustained pullback in spending will eventually reach them too. The link isn’t broken—it may simply be transmitting downward momentum more slowly. Still, in a market that spent a month taking its direction entirely from semiconductors, a day where the AI trade broke and Bitcoin held firm is the first signal that the two assets may not be as tightly tethered as the rally suggested.

Lower down, the picture is weaker. Ether dropped 2.2% to $1,880, Solana fell 2.2% to $75.75, and XRP fell 2.1% to $1.11. AVAX dropped 5% to $6.25, bringing its weekly loss to 5.2%.

Technically, Bitcoin’s position is critical: The price is holding just above its 50-day moving average ($65,145), with the $66,000 level lost yesterday acting as initial resistance. As long as it remains below this level, the buy wall at $63,000—which we highlighted earlier in the week—remains the primary test point. On the Clarity Act front, there are no new developments; following the “insufficient” assessment from seven Democratic senators, the probability on prediction markets stayed at 38%, and the window is narrowing as the Senate heads into recess on August 7.

Equities

Week-End Close: Indexes in the Red, Circuit Breaker in Asia

All three major US indexes are heading into the weekend with losses: The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq was the weakest, down 1.5%. Futures are flat this morning; S&P 500 futures are unchanged, while Nasdaq futures are down 0.26%. European markets are expected to open mixed.

The picture in Asia is severe: The KOSPI fell 5–6%, prompting the Korean Exchange to trigger a sell-side circuit breaker to halt program trading for five minutes; the index is heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline. The Nikkei fell 2.8% and the Hang Seng slipped 1.3%.

A technical development in Korea also fueled the sell-off: According to Bloomberg, SK Hynix’s quota to convert its Seoul-listed shares into US certificates was fully utilized during the $26.5 billion public offering on July 10. This halts arbitrage trades and eliminates the opportunity to close the premium of up to 51% on US-traded certificates relative to Seoul shares; the stock fell 3.5%, Samsung dropped 4%, and SoftBank fell 7.5%.

On Wall Street, yesterday’s damage was concentrated in megacaps: Tesla dropped to $319.69, Meta fell 3.4% to $606 (slipping below its 200-day moving average), Amazon lost 4.6% to $233.66, and Microsoft fell 2.2%. Nvidia remained relatively resilient, down 1.6% at $208.76, maintaining its bullish setup; ASML was virtually unchanged.

Preliminary PMI data will be released today across Europe, the UK, and the US. US data is expected to maintain relative strength, but an upside surprise could push the probability of a July rate hike to 50%—adding another layer of pressure on equities entering the weekend.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
July 24	Friday (today)	Preliminary PMI data for Europe, the UK, and the US — an upside surprise in the US could lift July rate hike odds to 50%
July 24	Friday (today)	UK June retail sales; new tariffs took effect shortly after midnight US time
July 28–29	Tuesday–Wednesday	Fed meeting — a July hike (ruled out a week ago) is now priced at a 1/3 chance; two moves are fully priced by January
July 29	Wednesday	Meta and Microsoft earnings — the second and larger test of the AI spending challenge
July 30	Thursday	Amazon and Apple earnings; Amazon’s investment target is already over $200 billion
Next week	—	Bank of Japan meeting — yen at a 40-year low of 163.80; US Treasury issued an excessive volatility warning
Early August	—	SpaceX’s first public balance sheet release and the unlocking of 911.5 million shares
August 7	Friday	US Senate summer recess begins — calendar window closes for the Clarity Act