Global Markets Weekly & Crypto Outlook: Bond Yields Hit 24-Year Highs While Tech Rallies to Records

Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Daily briefing on record bond yields, European political risks, AI tech surges, and Bitcoin’s macro tests.

Daily Summary

Our View: The clearest message the market delivered this week is that the bond sell-off is no longer troubling equities: the 10-year yield hit a 24-year high while the Nasdaq closed at a record. This divergence can persist as long as artificial intelligence earnings expectations remain intact, but it increases fragility. Today, we expect the tech-led rally to continue, while pressure persists in Europe due to political risks originating in France and Spain. The key event to watch is tomorrow’s 10-year US Treasury auction: the smooth absorption of this week’s $119 billion supply will brake yields and remove the main macro barrier preventing Bitcoin from breaking the $87,000 resistance. Bitcoin has bounced from this level for the third time; unless there is a daily close below $84,000, the trend remains upward, but a strong rejection at $87,500 would set the ceiling for the pre-midterm rally.

• Bitcoin bounced from $87,000 for the third time: Currently at $85,300–85,600. Since September 23, this level has capped every rally. According to QCP, acceptance above $87,200 is required to confirm the next leg; technically, $87,500 is the critical resistance.
• Nasdaq closed at a record, despite the bond sell-off: Nvidia rose 2.1% to a record close and a market capitalization of $5.76 trillion; TSM gained 2.75% to $486 with an RSI of 76. The S&P 500 is 0.5% below its record.
• 10-year yield at a 24-year high: 5.3493%. The 30-year touched 5.70% intraday. As Reuters phrased it, the breaching of the 5% threshold passed “without incident”; the new pain threshold is now the 5.25%–5.35% band.
• Spain is heading toward early elections: Prime Minister Sanchez is trailing in the polls and called for elections in November; this means political uncertainty in two of the euro zone’s four major economies simultaneously. The euro hit a 17-month low at 1.1161, and the France-Germany spread narrowed to 137 basis points.
• Employment is much weaker than expected: 29k. Expectations were 84k–90k, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to its weakest pace since May 2021. The probability of an October rate hike stands at 23%–24%; December is still priced in.
• Price pressures persist in ISM services: The index dipped to 54.9, but the prices-paid component rose to 74, reaching its highest level in over four years. Inflation may spill over into next year.
• Oil slipped to $100: Brent closed down 1.89% at $100.32; Middle East exports exceeded pre-war levels for four days in the final week of September, and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude. The Aramco CEO stated that refilling inventories could take two years.
• Today: Euro zone retail sales and construction PMIs; Fed speakers include Williams, Bowman, Schmid, and Logan. Tomorrow brings the Fed minutes and the 10-year auction; Thursday features Samsung preliminary results.

Story of the Day

Bonds are falling, but equities don’t care

The most striking phenomenon of this week is a contradiction: the US 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2002 at 5.3493% on Monday night, with the 30-year touching 5.7029% intraday. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, and Nvidia refreshed its record, pushing its market cap to $5.76 trillion.

Reuters’ morning note finds the situation explicitly strange: bonds have been trading poorly for weeks, and every recovery attracts a fresh wave of selling. Normally, this is the type of sell-off that should shake every asset class, but bizarrely, everything else appears indifferent. Psychologically, the crossing of the feared 5% threshold passed “without incident,” and the new pain threshold is now the 5.25%–5.35% band on the 10-year.

Capital.com senior analyst Kyle Rodda explains the logic behind the rise: the rally was once again led by tech. A measured reduction in rate uncertainty and a slight easing of geopolitical risk allowed market participants to focus on the extraordinary earnings growth offered by AI names.

Numbers confirm this focus. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, consensus for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings projects 27% growth, with over half of that growth coming from companies benefiting from AI infrastructure spending; earnings season kicks off next week. However, market breadth does not support this picture: the equal-weighted S&P 500 fund fell 3.6% over the past month while the index itself gained 0.7%. In other words, the rally is carried on the shoulders of a few giant names.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett writes that volatility in the bond market has persisted for six weeks, driven by factors including a potential new Fed policy framework, economic growth, and high oil prices as the Middle East conflict drags on. She adds, however, that despite rising intraday implied volatility, this six-week process has not reached the extremes that triggered the 2022 equity bear market.

BMO’s Ian Lyngen ties the source of pressure in long-term bonds to a general theme: regardless of whether it is France, the US, Japan, or the UK, lingering concerns persist that government deficit spending will eventually lead to a reckoning in sovereign debt markets, and demand for Treasury supply remains an open question.

This question will be directly tested this week. US Treasury auctions will sell $119 billion worth of paper, with tomorrow’s 10-year auction serving as the clearest test. Commentary from the Bitcoin front summarizes the mechanism well: smart money is waiting to see how this week’s auctions pan out, because the successful absorption of this supply will keep yields under control, support risk appetite, and remove the primary macro headwind that caused the recent rally to stall around $87,000. The same logic applies to equities and commodities.

The second front in Europe: Spain

Following the fiscal drama in France, Spain was added to the mix on Monday as Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called for early elections in November. Sanchez is trailing in the polls, and a defeat would leave markets facing political uncertainty in two of the euro zone’s four major economies simultaneously—with Italy also heading to elections next year.

In France, the government is trying to pass an unpopular 2027 budget to curb a record debt burden and deficit, a difficult goal in a deeply divided parliament ahead of next year’s presidential election. The euro hit its lowest level since May 2025 on Monday at 1.1161, falling against the pound, Swiss franc, and yen—declining against the yen for seven straight sessions.

The numbers feed contagion fears. The French-German 10-year spread registered its largest weekly jump in decades last week, touching 160 basis points intraday on Friday. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid described the moment as being “on the verge of a mini-panic,” stating that the real question is whether this marks the beginning of a new euro sovereign debt crisis or if the market has already overshot. The Italian-German spread also widened to nearly 130 basis points, marking its largest weekly increase since the COVID crisis.

Some relief arrived on Monday, pulling the French spread down to 137 basis points, but this remains far above the 85 basis points seen a month ago. According to BofA FX strategists’ calculations, every 10 basis point additional widening in the French spread correlates with a 0.4% drop in EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs analysts summarize the issue in a single sentence: spreads do not matter for a currency until they become the only thing that matters.

Societe Generale Head of FX Strategy Kit Juckes believes the factors that kept EUR/USD above critical levels over the summer—namely the assumption of a short-lived energy shock and US efforts to weaken the dollar—have now vanished. Three-month euro risk reversals sank on Friday to their most bearish level since 2024, and analysts suggest the euro could test 1.10.

Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin offered a calming framework in an interview with the Financial Times: France is not Greece during the euro zone crisis; if the government can pass a budget this year that cuts spending and narrows the deficit as proposed, markets will be reassured by this tangible fiscal consolidation step. However, he added a warning: if we fail to act, the risk of being gradually strangled by rising interest rates is very real. Moulin stated it is not yet time to debate whether the ECB will intervene.

A segment of the market has begun pricing the exact opposite: expectations that turbulence in the bond market could trigger a dovish pivot from the ECB. Deutsche Bank and its team project that the ECB will be forced to step back from rate hikes, settling perhaps for a quarter-point move rather than the three additional hikes the market expected days earlier.

The implication for crypto and risk assets is direct: central banks tighten until something breaks. European debt issues, particularly in the core, could lead to looser monetary policy than expected from not just the ECB, but also the Fed.

Weak employment didn’t stop the Fed

Friday’s employment report came in much weaker than expected: only 29k jobs were added in September, compared to expectations ranging from 84k to 90k. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3% year-over-year—the slowest pace since May 2021. The three-month average job gain stands at 51k.

Pricing for an October rate hike dipped to around 15% briefly on Friday, but bounced back to the 23%–24% band on Monday. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh explaining that he is not concerned about weak employment growth, citing a shrinking labor force among the reasons, explains this recovery. The takeaway: Friday’s weak data alone is not enough to turn the Fed away from its intention to raise rates, because inflation remains front and center in the central bank’s mind. Even a weak or inline CPI report next week could bring tighter monetary policy.

Monday’s ISM services data fueled this concern. The index slipped from 55.4 in August to 54.9 in September, but the prices-paid component rose from 72.6 to 74, reaching its highest level in over four years. Strong domestic demand is straining supply chains and driving up input prices paid by businesses, signaling that inflation may spill over into next year.

Barclays analysts note that while inflation revisions and data lessen the urgency of tightening, cost pressures continue to fuel doubts over whether conditions to sustain 2% inflation have formed.

On the Washington front, a more structural debate has begun. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok shares a striking ratio: one out of every five dollars the government takes in tax revenue goes toward servicing the national debt, and this figure will continue to rise. The Treasury is already leaning on short-term bill issuance and conducting small buybacks. In a worst-case scenario, the next steps would have to come from the Fed—namely, large-scale long-term bond purchases similar to the 1961 “Operation Twist,” or yield curve control, which the US has not practiced since World War II.

Capital Economics’ John Higgins points out that mandatory spending claims a larger share of the budget than in the 1990s, and with Congress unwilling to raise taxes or cut spending, he sees risks “skewed” toward an inflationary path that damages bondholders.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street rallied on Monday, led by technology: the Nasdaq Composite gained 1% to close at a record; the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,774, sitting 0.5% below its record; the Dow added 0.18% to 51,268; and the Russell 2000 gained 0.5%. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector closed at a record high.

Among individual stocks, Nvidia rose 2.12% to $239 to set a new record, hitting a market cap of $5.76 trillion; TSM gained 2.75% to $486 with an RSI of 76 in overbought territory; Tesla rose 2.2% to $379 (up 5.95% for the week); Meta gained 1.9% to $742; and Microsoft added 1.48% to $525. Memory stocks stood out: Western Digital gained 6% and Seagate added 4%. SpaceX surged 5.5%–7%, recovering 60% from its August low, and its weight in the Nasdaq 100 was confirmed at 2.82% in the September rebalancing. Energy stocks traded flat alongside oil. US futures are slightly higher this morning.

Asia is mixed on Tuesday: Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.15% to 70,754, marking the world’s strongest major index with a 7.4% weekly gain (Topix up 0.26%); Taiwan gained 0.22% to 49,823 with an RSI of 72, as Foxconn jumped up to 4% after reporting record September revenue of NT$1.16 trillion, crossing the 1 trillion threshold for the first time. Hong Kong is up 0.61% at 24,188, and Australia rose 0.57% to 8,736, while South Korea’s KOSPI moved in the opposite direction, dropping 1.07% to 6,929. Mainland China is closed for the Golden Week holiday.

The standout development today is Brazil: the Bovespa surged 7.7% to a record 206,912, gaining 13.07% for the week, with an RSI of 84 deep in overbought territory. Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperforming polls in the first round of the presidential election to make the run-off sent both the real and equities soaring.

European futures are up 0.4%–0.5%; on Monday, the DAX traded flat (+0.09%), while the CAC 40 dropped 0.8% to 7,834, remaining oversold with an RSI of 29. BIST 100 rose 1.42% to 12,444 for its second day of recovery, narrowing its weekly loss to 1.2% (down 11.2% for the month, RSI 35).

On Thursday, Samsung will report preliminary third-quarter results, with operating profit expected to cross 100 trillion won ($74.5 billion) for the first time.

Foreign Exchange

The US Dollar Index sits at 102.17–102.21, hovering near an 18-month high. Supported by high Treasury yields following a 0.9% weekly gain, its RSI is 74. Dollar strength persists despite weak employment data as investors bet the Fed will still be forced to tighten policy further.

The euro trades at 1.1211–1.1219, slightly above Monday’s 17-month low, with an RSI of 18 deeply in oversold territory. Against the pound, it sits at 84.87 pence, having lost over 1% last week. Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joseph Capurso is bearish: “We are quite pessimistic on the euro and think it will break below $1.10. For the euro to rise, we would need a major drop in oil prices, a massive spike in European monetary policy tightening expectations, or a serious step toward curbing budget deficits—and the latter is unlikely to happen soon.” Capurso, who also serves as the bank’s head of international economics, adds that deep divisions in the French parliament increase the risk that proposed fiscal consolidation will be diluted or face a vote of no confidence, meaning EUR/USD will test support at 1.1109.

The yen trades at 158.07–158.16; according to three sources, the BOJ may signal this month that core inflation has roughly reached its 2% target, indicating readiness to resume rate hikes in the coming months.

The pound stands at 1.3209, the Australian dollar at 0.6970, and the New Zealand dollar at 0.5596 (RSI 26). USD/CAD is at 1.4274 with an RSI of 77 in an uptrend. USD/TRY hit a new peak at 49.18, with an RSI of 96.

Commodities

Oil lost nearly $2 on Monday: Brent closed down 1.89% at $100.32, and WTI fell 1.84% to $89.43. On Tuesday morning, Brent and WTI recovered slightly to $100.70 and $89.60, respectively.

The drop stems from two reasons. First, supply: vessel tracking data shows Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, despite attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lipow Oil Associates President Andrew Lipow summarizes the mechanism: tankers are still at risk, but at the end of the day, more oil is reaching the market. Ships transit the strait at night, and despite the risks, very large crude carriers earning over $1 million a day make it clearly worthwhile for some shipowners.

Second, the G7: countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and avoid energy export restrictions. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov notes that the market remains skeptical, as it is unclear how much of the oil pledged under the new agreement will come from the remaining volumes of the International Energy Agency’s 400 million barrel release announced in March. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol had noted that members have already released about two-thirds of that agreement.

In contrast, strong warnings suggest the underlying supply picture remains tight. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the Energy Intelligence conference in London that he expects crude and refined fuel supplies to remain tight, and refilling global inventories after emergency withdrawals will take two years. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude inventories fell last week to 283 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1982.

PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga states that a Middle East ceasefire is still a distant prospect, and renewed conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis guarantees that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping will continue, keeping the geopolitical risk premium high. Yemeni government forces attacked Houthi positions on Monday in the Dhubab area overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, OPEC+ postponed a review to set 2027 quotas as the war disrupted capacity expansion projects.

Precious metals are weak: gold stands at $4,147 (RSI 34, down 8.7% for the month); silver is at $60.78 (down 9.3% monthly); and palladium is at $1,166 (down 18.3% monthly in a bear trend). Copper maintains its uptrend, up 0.9% at $6.64. Natural gas rose to $3.08, and cocoa recovered to $5,852 with a 4.71% weekly gain.

Crypto

Bitcoin pushed just above $87,000 on Monday before being turned back by sellers, dipping 0.63%–1.2% to $85,300–85,600 on Tuesday morning. This is the third time since September 23 that this level has capped a rally, and the pattern is clear: every time Bitcoin reaches $87,000, a wave of selling pushes it back down. Surpassing this level requires buyers capable of absorbing the selling pressure and keeping Bitcoin above $87,000, signaling that selling at that price point has dried up and clearing the path toward eight-month highs.

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich describes the technical structure: Bitcoin has formed a trend of higher local lows since the beginning of last week, but bulls have failed to gain momentum; price is approaching the apex of a triangle formed by horizontal resistance and rising support, so we must prepare for increased volatility in the event of a breakout from this pattern. QCP Capital provides the threshold by the numbers: acceptance above $87,200 is required to confirm the next leg. Total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.93 trillion, sitting just below the $2.95 trillion mark flagged by FxPro as resistance.

On the technical front, macro is this week’s primary driver. Open interest data shows strong buying demand around $84,500—roughly a thousand dollars below current levels—and a major reason for Bitcoin’s sluggish start to the week is smart money waiting to see how this week’s US Treasury auctions turn out. Tomorrow’s 10-year auction will be the clearest test; the successful absorption of this week’s $119 billion supply will keep yields under control, support risk appetite, and remove the macro hurdle causing the rally to stall around $87,000.

Technically, barring a strong daily close below $84,000, the upside risk points toward the $94,000 region, with a specific focus on the $87,500 resistance zone. However, a warning remains: a weekly sell signal is close to forming, meaning a strong rejection at $87,500 could mark the ceiling for any rally ahead of the midterms.

Glassnode data from October 5 shows a simplification in positioning: futures open interest dropped from $38 billion to $36.6 billion, and the spot cumulative volume delta flipped from minus $102.8 million to plus $33.2 million, indicating buyers have stepped in. Conversely, the share of short-term holders active recently rose from 18.9% to 19.5%, and the short-to-long-term supply ratio climbed from 13.7% to 14.2%. Younger cohorts sell more easily during volatility, which increases price sensitivity and requires continuous spot inflows to absorb active supply.

Warning signs are accumulating on the altcoin side. Ether has seen repeated spikes in realized profit and consumed age metrics, indicating both aggressive profit-taking and the movement of previously dormant coins. More concerning is Ether’s deep negative price-active address divergence: daily network participation is failing to keep pace with price, meaning the rally is increasingly driven by price action itself rather than improvements in underlying activity.

In Zcash, social volume spiked to peaks, development activity surged to extreme levels, and has now pulled back. If Bitcoin begins to fade from $87,500, it would signal that the extraordinary momentum surrounding Zcash and, to a lesser extent, Ether is also losing steam, pointing to a deeper correction ahead.

On the daily table, HYPE diverged, rising 3% to around $94, while BNB was the weakest, down 2.5%. Ether, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin fell 1%–2%, while ZEC and Tron traded flat. Outside of majors, ADA jumped 11% with futures open interest reaching 2.46 billion tokens—its highest level since August 22. Rising open interest alongside price increases is considered a signal confirming the uptrend. GRT and NEAR gained close to 7%.

Institutional buying continues: Strategy bought 334 bitcoins last week, bringing its total to 848k (at an average cost of $75,441), while Bitmine acquired 15,112 ethers to reach 6.02 million ethers, or 4.9% of supply.

Second Story: Solana reduces institutional settlement to seconds with JPMorgan contribution

On Tuesday, the Solana Foundation introduced an open-source delivery-versus-payment (DvP) program called Solana DvP, directly attacking one of traditional finance’s oldest headaches: settlement risk. In traditional markets, assets and cash pass through a chain of clearinghouses and custodians over one to two days, tying up capital and leaving room for principal risk.

Solana DvP compresses these multi-legged processes into a single atomic transaction: either both legs settle together, or neither does. In practice, this means institutions do not have to trust that the counterparty will deliver later; the transaction completes instantly and fully, or it doesn’t happen at all, eliminating the risk of one party defaulting after receiving assets or cash. The program also solves the fragmentation institutions face when settling on-chain; until now, they had to commission custom, one-off smart contracts for every trade.

Catherine Gu, Head of Digital Assets Products at the Foundation, stated that atomic settlement eliminates counterparty risk inherent in traditional finance, delivering a single open standard to institutions across the Solana ecosystem on public infrastructure with the finality of seconds rather than days.

Notably, JPMorgan contributed to the project. The investment bank brought decades of settlement expertise to the table, helping shape requirements around deadlines, custody isolation, and token extensions relied upon by regulated issuers—specifically pausable tokens and transfer hooks under Solana’s upgraded token standard, Token-2022. Rhodel D’souza, Head of Digital Asset Markets at JPMorgan, stated that a shared open standard for atomic delivery-versus-payment is essential infrastructure for institutional participants to operate at scale without generating settlement risk.

Solana’s DvP is not the first of its kind; JPMorgan’s Kinexys previously tested a cross-chain DvP transaction with Ondo Finance, and ClearToken launched a similar initiative on the Canton Network. However, Solana’s stands out as an open standard on public infrastructure. The program has passed external security audits and is ready for real funds, with privacy features planned to keep settlements confidential. Solana is already involved in institutional tokenization experiments, such as a Galaxy Digital commercial paper transaction arranged by JPMorgan and settled in USDC. An open and audited DvP standard could turn these one-off deals into a regular business.

Levels to Watch

• US 10-year Treasury auction, tomorrow: The clearest test of this week’s $119 billion supply. Successful absorption will brake yields and remove the macro hurdle preventing Bitcoin from breaking $87,000; weak demand means the opposite.
• Bitcoin, $87,000–$87,500 / $84,000: The thrice-tested resistance and technical breakout threshold. A strong rejection at $87,500, combined with a weekly sell signal, would set the ceiling for the pre-midterm rally; a breakout targets $94,000.
• US 10-year yield, 5.25%–5.35%: The new pain threshold band. Crossing the 5% psychological level passed without incident; the real question is sustaining permanence above this band.
• EUR/USD, 1.1109 / 1.10: The support flagged by CBA and the level analysts expect to be tested. Every 10 basis point widening in the French spread correlates with a 0.4% drop in the euro.
• Brent, $100: The psychological threshold. G7 releases and recovering exports work to the downside, while Aramco’s warning that “refilling inventories takes two years” and Houthi conflicts work to the upside.
• Fed minutes, tomorrow: Since an October rate hike is not priced in, the real information will be how the September rate hike was debated within the committee and under what conditions additional hikes are tied.

Calendar of the Week

Date	Day	Event / Development
October 6	Tuesday	Euro zone August retail sales; Euro zone, Germany, and France construction PMIs; UK PMI; Fed speakers Williams, Bowman, Schmid, and Logan; Ethereum Glamsterdam testnet activates on Sepolia at 13:53 UTC
October 7	Wednesday	Fed September meeting minutes; 10-year US Treasury auction; Mainland China markets reopen
October 8	Thursday	Samsung preliminary Q3 results (operating profit expected to cross 100 trillion won for the first time)
October 9	Friday	University of Michigan preliminary October consumer sentiment
Next Week	—	US September CPI; earnings season kicks off October 13 with JPMorgan (S&P 500 earnings growth expectation at 27%)
Oct 27–28	—	FOMC (October hike probability at 23%–24%; December priced in)
November 3	—	US midterm elections; November 5 Zcash NU7 mainnet target