Global Market Briefing: Tech & Macro Outpace Crypto Amid Regulatory & Fed Headwinds

Monday, November 9, 2026 | Daily briefing on Asian market recovery, Fed rate hike bets, tech governance shocks, and Bitcoin’s regulatory decoupling.

Summary of the Day

Our View: The recovery in Asia is strong, but Pepperstone’s warning is spot on: the only thing that matters this price-wise this week is the price itself, meaning the move is flow-driven and fundamentals will mean very little.Therefore, we do not count Taiwan’s 6% surge and the Nikkei’s 3.5% jump as confirmation of a market bottom; the confirmation will come from CoreWeave’s earnings report on Wednesday. The divergence between equities and crypto is today’s primary takeaway: while the stock market rallied, Bitcoin hit a new low, and the driver is regulation rather than macro factors—specifically, Blumenthal’s November 30 document requests and the subpoena powers taking effect in January. In short, crypto’s calendar differs from equities and is longer-term. Tomorrow brings U.S. inflation data; following Friday’s 165k jobs report, an 80% probability of a December rate hike is currently priced in, and a hot reading would intensify pressure on risk assets.

• Asia staged a sharp recovery, led by Taiwan surging 6.7%. Having suffered its steepest weekly drop in two decades last week, Taiwan’s market outperformed with TSMC up 6% and Foxconn gaining 8%; the Nikkei added 3.5%, Korea rose 1.8%, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed 2%.
• However, crypto diverged: Bitcoin hit a two-month low. Dropping as low as $73,500 late Sunday night,Ether approached $2,000 to touch its lowest level since mid-August, while XRP fell 6.02% to $1.0949 amid $1 billion in liquidations.
• Employment data doubled expectations: 165k jobs added against a consensus forecast of 65k. The probability of at least a 25 bps Fed rate hike in December jumped to 80%, triggering the U.S. dollar’s largest single-day gain in five months.
• Nvidia launched an investigation into its CEO. Jensen Huang’s relationship with a businesswoman whom intelligence agencies identified as a Chinese operative is under review; Huang apologized, and the company announced he will continue in his role. The stock fell ~3.5% in after-hours trading.
• Blumenthal requested documents from crypto firms. The incoming chair of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations sent letters to executives at World Liberty Financial, Binance, Tether,Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, and Ripple. A response deadline is set for November 30, with compliance required by January 4.
• Brent dropped 16% last week—its sharpest weekly decline since the pandemic. On Sunday, Trump stated that as long as negotiations progress, the chance of ordering new strikes on Iran is very low; Brent hovers in the $97–$98.35 band.
• China’s factory-gate inflation hit a 4.5-year high of 5.7%, beating the 5.3% forecast. Meanwhile, consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%; high oil costs are hitting producers, while weak domestic demand prevents pass-through to consumers.
• Today: Germany September trade data; Eurozone November Sentix index; French and German bond auctions. Tomorrow: U.S. inflation data. Wednesday: CoreWeave earnings.

Story of the Day

A Recovery Is Underway, but Lacking Foundational Support

Asian markets kicked off Monday on a strong note, catching their breath following last week’s rout. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 2% after sliding 4.6% last week, while Japan’s Nikkei advanced 2.22%–3.5% and South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.8%. The most dramatic move occurred in Taiwan: the index surged up to 6.7% intraday before trading up 4.94% at 41,662, bouncing back from last week’s sharpest weekly tumble in twenty years. TSMC advanced 6% and Foxconn rallied 8%; in Korea, Samsung added 2.7% and SK Hynix gained 4.77%. U.S. futures are also in positive territory, with S&P 500 futures up 0.6%.

However, caution is warranted regarding the nature of this recovery. As Pepperstone Head of Research Chris Weston clearly states: the only thing that matters this week is the price itself; one can easily see many people saying, “you know, now is the time to buy, there is blood in the streets, it’s not as bad as everyone thinks.” The move will be driven by order flow, and fundamentals will mean very little. In other words, this is not a valuation-driven pivot, but rather short-covering and bottom-fishing. The weekly calendar supports this view, being relatively light on macro events with the true tests arriving from Wednesday onward. The real exam lies in tech earnings: CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco Systems report this week, with CoreWeave holding particular significance as it has become a symbol of investor anxiety over AI profitability due to massive infrastructure build-out costs and heavy debt loads.

A second source of volatility surfaced over the weekend from an unexpected quarter. Nvidia launched an investigation into CEO and co-founder Jensen Huang regarding a relationship with a businesswoman whom intelligence agencies alleged to be a Chinese operative. Huang informed employees of the relationship and apologized, while an Nvidia spokesperson affirmed Huang’s firm commitment to continuing uninterrupted as CEO. According to The New York Times and Financial Times, U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that Alice Huang—linked to cloud provider and Nvidia customer Megaspeed—may have passed information to Beijing. Market reaction has been measured yet visible: Nvidia stock fell roughly 3.5% in after-hours trading on the Blue Ocean alternative trading system, while perpetual futures dropped 3% according to Hyperliquid pricing, trading around $180.30 compared to Friday’s Nasdaq close of $186.44. South Korea’s Second Vice Minister of Science and ICT, Ryu Je Myung, stated that despite the controversy, they expect contracted Nvidia GPU deliveries to proceed without interruption, noting that the ministry is monitoring developments closely and discussing pricing and schedules with Nvidia Korea.

Crypto Diverged: Driven by Regulation, Not Macro

Today’s most striking observation is the divergence between equities and crypto. While stocks rallied, crypto hit a new low: Bitcoin fell over 2% late Sunday night to $73,708—dipping as low as $73,500 to hit its lowest level since August; Ether tumbled roughly 5% to $2,223 and subsequently to $2,121.93, nearing $2,000 for its lowest mark since mid-August. XRP dropped 6.02% to $1.0949, Solana fell 3.21% to $86.35, pushing Solana’s RSI down to 26.8 and XRP’s to 27.5 deep into oversold territory. Early Monday saw a fresh liquidation wave totaling $1 billion. Bitcoin recovered 1% in the morning to trade in the $74,347–$74,934 range, but failed to join the broader stock market rally.

The catalyst behind this divergence is clear, as documented in CoinDesk’s weekend analysis: investors worry that a Democratic-controlled Congress will intensify crackdowns on digital assets. A concrete development arrived on Thursday. The office of Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), the incoming chair of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, announced a new round of letters sent to entities connected to Trump, including World Liberty Financial, Fight Fight Fight LLC (the issuer of the $TRUMP memecoin),Binance, Tether, and inaugural ball donors. Donors on the list include Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, the Winklevoss twins of Gemini, Charles Cascarilla of Paxos, Arjun Sethi of Kraken, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple,Jeff Sprecher and Kelly Loeffler of Intercontinental Exchange, and the Lutnick family of Cantor Fitzgerald. The letters request executives to begin responding to document requests by November 30, 2026, and warn that if requested records are not voluntarily submitted by January 4, 2027, the subcommittee will have no alternative but to consider alternative measures to compel compliance. Elizabeth Warren, slated to chair the Senate Banking Committee, also sent letters over the past year to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency concerning crypto licenses, Trump’s memecoin, and the reported loan extended by Tether to the Lutnick family.These figures will hold subpoena power in January.

The legislative landscape looks even more challenging. Senator Ruben Gallego stated that if the industry wants legislative progress, it needs to talk to Senator-elect Sherrod Brown. Brown, against whom Fairshake and the Digital Freedom Fund deployed over $60 million in counter-spending, is expected to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee. Consequently, any market structure bill would need to clear both the Banking Committee (chaired by Warren) and the Agriculture Committee (likely chaired by Brown), while tax legislation would pass through the Finance Committee chaired by Ron Wyden. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, is currently working on a market structure bill; a source familiar with the matter described it as one the industry will find frustrating, but which crypto critics will find even more frustrating—unlikely to pass, yet defining the Democratic stance on crypto market structure regulation. Kristin Smith, interim CEO of the Blockchain Association, summarized the industry’s mood: there is a lot of self-reflection right now; a big part of what we dealt with over the last two years was trying to craft policy by leveraging a Republican-controlled Senate, House, and White House. However, she added a note of consolation: this is now an industry where stablecoins have a federal regulatory framework and real rules on the books, meaning we are not facing an existential crisis questioning whether “this technology should exist.”

Employment Data Alters the Fed Equation

Friday’s U.S. jobs report doubled expectations: employers added 165k jobs in October against economists’ forecast of 65k, while the unemployment rate ticked down. The impact was immediate. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising rates by at least 25 bps at its December 9 meeting jumped to 80% from 71% a week prior. The U.S. dollar notched its largest single-day gain in five months, with the index jumping 0.7% to 102.20 and holding at 102.08 today. The euro traded at 1.1167, having hit its lowest level since May 2025 at 1.1105 last week, while the Australian dollar lingered near March 31 lows at 0.6895.

Fed officials echoed this hawkish tilt. New York Fed President John Williams noted that U.S. economic growth has remained remarkably resilient in the face of consecutive shocks, though inflation remains too high and bringing it back to 2% is imperative. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated in business roundtable discussions that inflation remains the paramount concern. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly delivered the clearest message: despite the “painful” sell-off in tech stocks, the Fed likely still needs to raise rates further. Barclays strategists balanced the picture: the blue wave, heavier AI regulation, and risks of a slowing capex cycle have tested the AI trade; however, economic realities continue to surprise to the upside, and data momentum remains robust across indicators—a combination that has not yet dented the dollar’s appeal.Tomorrow’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release is the week’s primary macro event; a hot reading would solidify December pricing and increase pressure on risk assets.

Market Round-Up

Equities

Wall Street wrapped up a chaotic week with gains on Friday: the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35% to 26,990, the S&P 500 added 0.31% to 7,377, the Russell 2000 gained 0.89% to 2,754, while the Dow slipped 0.46% to 51,286.The VIX dropped 9.01% to 25.64, though its monthly gain still stands at 66.39%. Sector rotation saw the sharpest buying concentrated in the previous session’s biggest losers: AMD jumped 11.04% to $449.04,SpaceX gained 8.62% to $134.27, TSMC rose 6.33% to $375.44, ASML advanced 5.02% to $1,424.75, Tesla climbed 4.23% to $358.22, and Nvidia added 2.78% to $186.64. Conversely, major cloud companies traded flat to lower: Microsoft fell 0.99%, Apple lost 0.52%, and Amazon dropped 0.35%. Weekly damage remains severe: AMD is down 11.05%, Tesla 10.40%, ASML 9.01%, and Nvidia 8.80%, while the Nasdaq 100 closed the week down 4.91%, sitting 13.94% below its 52-week high. CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco Systems report earnings this week.

Asian markets experienced the aforementioned recovery on Monday; Taiwan gained 4.94% to 41,662 with an RSI of 19.5, remaining deeply oversold, meaning the bounce is driven by technical stretch. The Nikkei rose 2.22% to 58,709 (RSI: 25.9), whereas South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the regional trend, falling 0.48% to 5,035—sitting 46.35% below its 52-week high with a weekly loss of 12.13%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.32% and the Shanghai Composite added 0.49%. Chinese data came in mixed: October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.7% YoY, marking the fastest pace since June 2022 and beating the 5.3% forecast, whereas Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 0.7% (missing the 0.8% estimate, down from September’s 0.9%), with core inflation ticking down from 1.0% to 0.8%. Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics,commented: we expect the price shock originating from the Middle East conflict to keep inflation elevated in the coming months, though its impact should fade next year; he anticipates a return to deflation in factory-gate prices and forecasts consumer inflation averaging 0.4% in 2027. European equities fell on Friday—DAX dropped 1.92% to 25,820, CAC 40 lost 0.81% to 8,139—yet both ended the week higher, with Europe continuing to function as a hedge against AI risks. BIST 100 rose 1.32% to 11,483, posting a weekly gain of 6.72% as one of the stronger global performers; its RSI exited oversold territory at 44.4, though the index remains 24.48% below its 52-week high.

Foreign Exchange

The U.S. dollar index held in the 102.08–102.20 range, sustaining Friday’s 0.7% jump with a bullish RSI of 59.0. The euro traded at 1.1148–1.1167, sterling at 1.3360–1.3387, and the yen at 158.19–158.23. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Friday that the central bank expects underlying inflation to remain around its 2% target, while acknowledging “some upside risks.” The Canadian dollar held at 1.4100 following a 1.1% surge on Friday triggered by a surprise contraction in Canadian employment data. The headline FX story belongs to the New Zealand dollar: the currency climbed 0.12%–0.4% to the 0.5557–0.5602 range, bouncing off weekend lows of 0.5529. The driver was the election: preliminary results from a closely contested weekend vote gave Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party, ACT New Zealand, and New Zealand First 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament, one above the 66 required for a majority. However, roughly 400,000 votes (approx. 15% of ballots) remain uncounted, with official results due by November 27; both Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins stated they will await final results before initiating formal coalition talks. USD/TRY hit a new high at 50.18, with an extreme overbought RSI of 98.8.

Commodities

Oil prices traded calmly on Monday: Brent slipped 1.34% to $97.00 (with some quotes at $98.35), and WTI fell 0.76% to $90.14. Last week, Brent dropped 16%–17.55%, marking its sharpest weekly decline since the onset of the pandemic. The calm stems from Trump’s Sunday remarks stating that as long as negotiations to end the conflict progress, the likelihood of ordering a new strike on Iran is very low. However, risks have not evaporated, a point emphasized by two analysts. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, noted:despite recent optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough, underlying geopolitical risks remain elevated, and the possibility of renewed military escalation cannot be ruled out; the market appears to be pricing in a relatively optimistic de-escalation scenario even though a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran has not yet materialized. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump’s comments as “more measured,” but added: the market is still waiting to see whether the midterms produce a permanent shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict or if this is merely a temporary change in tone. Attacks continue: pro-Iranian Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone strike on Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh on Sunday, which shattered windows but caused no reported casualties. On the supply side, a Friday JPMorgan report indicated that the oil market is returning into surplus, estimating a daily surplus of 1.1 million barrels in September and 1.4 million in October.

Precious metals enjoyed a strong week and extended gains today: gold rose 1.30% to $4,127.80 with a weekly gain of 5.87%; silver advanced 1.92% to $52.80 (up 7.54% weekly); platinum added 0.81% to $1,550.70 (up 7.84% weekly); and palladium climbed 2.31% to $1,037.50 (up 5.37% weekly). The synchronized strength across all four metals is noteworthy, reflecting safe-haven demand rotating into metals amid the stock sell-off—last week, gold rose while equities crashed, exhibiting the exact behavior Bitcoin proponents have long anticipated from crypto. Nonetheless, metals remain well below their peaks: gold is down 26.11%, silver 56.47%, platinum 45.64%, and palladium 52.19%. Copper rebounded 1.81% to $6.33, though it remains down 1.98% for the week with a weakening RSI of 35.8. Natural gas gained 1.17% to $3.03, posting a weekly gain of 4.66%.

Crypto

The crypto market’s divergence was covered above; here we focus on technical levels and the weekly calendar. Bitcoin is currently compressed between support at the 200-day moving average near $73,150 and resistance at the 100-day moving average around $77.430, defining the trading band for coming days. A bounce toward $75,000 offers relief to bulls, but it has already stalled; whether this momentum persists depends heavily on how traditional markets react to the Nvidia news and Middle East tensions. On correlations: despite the “digital gold” narrative, Bitcoin has predominantly fallen during oil rallies since the Middle East war began in March, as regional tensions drive oil higher and trigger risk-off flows. Its RSI sits near oversold at 35.6, standing 14.93% below its 52-week high.

Two state-level developments directly impact the sector, proving more tangible than the federal picture. First,data centers: voters approved 40 out of 41 ballot initiatives restricting data center development. This poses headwinds for AI companies as well as crypto mining facilities and miners pivoting to AI compute. Second,prediction markets: Ron Hammond, head of advocacy and policy at Wintermute, noted that more state attorneys general may target prediction markets as an easy way to distinguish themselves, describing it as a bipartisan effort with both Republicans and Democrats targeting these platforms. Democrats also won attorney general races in states like Georgia, Texas, and Wisconsin. A third critical regulatory headline looks ahead to 2028: the Congressional Review Act permits the overturning of a federal agency’s final rule provided a resolution of disapproval passes and is signed by the president within 60 legislative days of finalization.Consequently, any regulation finalized in the spring or summer of 2028 could be repealed by a future Congress and president. Hammond explained the urgency: this is a crucial deadline, explaining why the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is accelerating GENIUS regulations and why the SEC is rushing rulemakings. The U.S. House and Senate return to Washington this week for the lame-duck session.

Second Story: China’s Diverging Producer and Consumer Inflation

China’s inflation release on Monday clearly highlighted the central tension in the global economy. October Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rose 5.7% YoY, marking the fastest pace since June 2022 and exceeding the 5.3% consensus (up from 5.0% in September). Conversely, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0.7% from September’s 0.9%, missing the 0.8% forecast, while core inflation ticked down from 1.0% to 0.8%.In short, factory-gate prices are rising rapidly while consumer prices remain essentially stagnant. The direct driver is war: the Middle East conflict kept energy prices elevated, driving up costs for coal mining, oil and gas extraction/processing, chemicals, and other energy-intensive sectors. However, these upstream pressures have yet to fully pass through to consumers because weak household demand constrains spending.

This dynamic has two dimensions. First, China’s domestic economy: Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, diagnosed the situation: consumer inflation remained low, reflecting weak domestic demand; we have yet to see meaningful policy stimulus, and export growth has been exceptionally strong—which may explain why China is not rushing to roll out a new stimulus package. An official from the country’s state planning agency stated last month that the impact of external shocks on activity is growing, and imbalances between strong supply and weak domestic demand persist. Second, the global impact: rising factory-gate prices in China imply higher export prices from the world’s manufacturing hub, which will eventually bleed into consumer inflation in importing countries. Thus, the inflationary impact of surging oil prices extends beyond energy bills, propagating through global supply chains. Capital Economics forecasts that this effect will fade next year, returning producer prices to deflation, though this projection hinges on an end to the war. Another headache for China is its stock market: AI-related shares retreated from high valuations amid concerns over AI demand and export restrictions targeting China, which could further suppress domestic consumer spending.

Levels to Watch

• U.S. Inflation Data (Tomorrow): Following Friday’s 165k jobs report, an 80% chance of a December hike is priced in. A hot reading solidifies this probability and intensifies pressure on risk assets.
• CoreWeave Earnings (Wednesday): The company has become a symbol of anxiety over AI profitability.This earnings report serves as the first true test of whether the Asian recovery has fundamental backing.
• Bitcoin ($73,150 / $77,430): Support at the 200-day moving average and resistance at the 100-day moving average. Price is compressed between these two levels; a downside break signals a renewed search for bottoms.
• Blumenthal Calendar (November 30 & January 4): Response start dates for document requests sent to crypto executives. Subpoena powers take effect in January; crypto’s regulatory calendar is decoupling from equities.
• Brent ($97–$98): Dropped 16% last week. Sachdeva’s warning is well-founded—the market is pricing in an optimistic de-escalation scenario without a comprehensive agreement in place.
• Taiwan RSI (19.5): Despite gaining 5% today, it remains deeply oversold. The rebound is driven by technical stretch rather than valuation.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
Nov 9	Monday	Germany September trade data; Eurozone November Sentix index; French and German bond auctions; U.S. Congress returns to Washington for lame-duck session
Nov 10	Tuesday	U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI); the week’s primary macro event
Nov 11	Wednesday	CoreWeave earnings; MSCI index constituent removal announcements (Strategy and Metaplanet at risk)
This Week	—	Applied Materials and Cisco Systems earnings; monitoring developments from the Nvidia board investigation
Nov 27	Friday	Official New Zealand election results released (approx. 15% of votes still uncounted)
Nov 30	Monday	Start of response window for Blumenthal’s document requests to crypto firms; Trump Media convertible bond buyback date
Dec 9	Wednesday	FOMC meeting; probability of at least a 25 bps rate hike stands at 80%