Daily Market Wrap: Geopolitical Relief & AI Industry Shocks

Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Daily briefing on oil’s retreat, Nvidia probes, Anthropic’s IPO test, and Bitcoin’s key levels.

Daily Executive Summary

Our View: The market quickly erased last week’s losses, but the source of the rally is not fundamental: Brent dropping to $91 eased inflation fears, nothing more. ATFX’s warning is spot on—prices have traveled too far, too fast, and any signal of stalled negotiations will quickly bring back the geopolitical risk premium. Today features two distinct tests: US CPI data at 16:30 and Anthropic’s official roadshow launch. The latter is more critical; the company’s ~$70B raise details were sent to banks and abruptly pulled back on Monday night, signaling that pricing has not yet settled. A successful IPO will serve as a confidence test for the AI trade; a delay will mean the opposite. On Nvidia, the narrative is expanding: the FBI is involved, and the investigation into Singapore-based Megaspeed’s chip-smuggling activities is back in focus. Bitcoin remains below $75,000 and needs real buying flow rather than luck.

• The Nvidia investigation expands with the FBI involved. Trump revealed that Jensen Huang told him, “I had no idea she was a spy.” The stock fell 4.27% on Monday, missing out on the Wall Street rally; the company reports earnings next week.
• Singapore-based Megaspeed sits at the center of the probe. A customer of Nvidia, the firm saw its assets balloon from $33 million in 2023 to $3 billion in 2024, with revenue jumping from zero to $294 million. Alice Huang served as General Manager there for eight months; Singapore police are investigating suspected chip diversion.
• Wall Street recorded its best single day since April. The S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.40%, and the Dow gained 2.15%, while the VIX plummeted 22.31% to 19.92. AMD surged 13.26%,ASML gained 6.21%, and Meta rose 5.12%.
• Brent fell to $91.44, its lowest level since early September. Trump announced he is temporarily postponing new strikes on Iran following calls from regional leaders, particularly the Prime Minister of Qatar. Brent is down 12.72% weekly and 12.68% monthly.
• Anthropic’s $70 billion plan was distributed to banks and then withdrawn. According to emails seen by Reuters, IPO details were retracted Monday night; the company is expected to kick off its official roadshow today, with pricing targeted for next week.
• Today’s US CPI data: Headline expected at 0.3%, core at 0.2% MoM (down from 0.6% and 0.3% in September). The implied probability of a December Fed rate hike rose to 84–85%. There is no YoY comparison available because last year’s government shutdown disrupted index data collection.
• The New York Stock Exchange selected Avalanche for tokenized equities. The exchange will operate its own private blockchain built on Avalanche technology; AVAX rose 7.67%. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is developing a similar infrastructure in partnership with Kraken’s parent company.
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) minutes revealed internal division. Some members urged hiking rates without being “overly cautious,” while others argued against rushing due to weak consumption and doubts over the sustainability of AI demand. Analysts expect a rate hike to 1.50% in December.

Story of the DayThe Nvidia Investigation Is No Longer Just a Corporate Matter The investigation surrounding the CEO of the world’s second most valuable company took a dramatic turn on Monday. Trump told reporters at the White House that he spoke directly with Jensen Huang and asked him point-blank: “Did you have any idea she was a spy?” Huang replied, “I had no idea she was a spy.” Trump added that the FBI is actively looking into the matter. On Sunday, Huang acknowledged having an extramarital affair without disclosing details; Nvidia’s board announced an independent internal probe following reports that Huang was targeted in a foreign intelligence operation. The New York Times reported on Oct 29 that Alice Huang, who developed a close relationship with Jensen Huang, came under scrutiny by US intelligence agencies, which concluded she was a Chinese intelligence asset funneling information to Beijing. Nvidia stock dropped 4.27% on Monday to $178.67, making it the sole major tech outlier left behind in Wall Street’s strongest session since April; its RSI stands oversold at 27.4, 26.59% below its 52-week high.

However, the main channel of contagion involves a second company, which is far more critical for investors.Cloud computing provider Megaspeed, based in Singapore, is an Nvidia customer where Alice Huang previously worked. Founded in 2015 as 7Road International, it renamed itself Megaspeed International in March 2023 and is fully owned by Swiftdata, a Singapore-registered entity established in October 2023.Swiftdata lists its core business as “providing hosting services by non-data center entities.” Two Singaporean nationals are listed as directors for both entities. Alice Huang (using her Chinese name Huang Le) ended an eight-month tenure as General Manager at Megaspeed in October 2023. Financial statements reveal a dramatic surge: company assets expanded from $33 million in 2023 to $3 billion in 2024, revenue skyrocketed from zero to $294 million, and the firm reported a post-tax loss of $20 million in 2024.

The regulatory footprint is growing broader. Megaspeed is under US scrutiny over suspicions that it helped Beijing access advanced Nvidia AI chips that are restricted from direct export to China; the firm’s website states it is an Nvidia Cloud Partner in the Asia-Pacific region, providing access to GB200 NVL72 and HGX H100 systems. Following a US senator’s request last October for the Commerce Department to investigate whether Megaspeed was illicitly diverting Nvidia hardware, Singapore police confirmed an open probe into “suspected violations of local laws.” Last month, Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs addressed a Wall Street Journal report alleging national concerns over Alice Huang’s connections to Jensen Huang, clarifying that neither the government nor officials made such statements and that no investigation was conducted on Alice Huang directly—though the Megaspeed investigation remains ongoing. For investors, two primary risks emerge: first, questions surrounding management stability ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report next week; second, and more structurally, the potential for strict new export controls if claims of chip diversion through intermediary countries like Singapore are validated.

Oil Drops to $91, Risk Appetite Returns The driving force behind Monday and today’s market rebound is strictly the drop in oil prices. Brent fell 1,22% to $91.44 (quoting near $91.56 on some desks), its lowest level since early September, while WTI trades at $85.83 (down 1.17%). On Monday, WTI fell over 4% and Brent slid more than 5%. The catalyst was direct: Trump announced Monday that he will postpone additional military strikes against Iran for now, honoring requests from regional allies, including entreaties made by the Prime Minister of Qatar during White House meetings. Brent’s weekly loss stands at 12.72%, monthly loss at 12.68%,and its RSI has edged close to oversold territory at 33.9; the commodity is down 27.49% from its 52-week peak.

This move sent a positive cascade through global markets. Cheaper energy alleviates inflation fears, providing a tailwind for risk assets. South Korea’s KOSPI surged 4.77% to 5,258, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker that halted program trading for five minutes after Kospi 200 futures jumped over 5% for more than a minute.Japan’s Nikkei gained 3.22% to 60,669, powered by SoftBank’s 13.4% leap, alongside gains in Tokyo Electron (+4.73%), Lasertec (+6.74%), and Disco (+6.01%). In Korea, SK Hynix rose 5.2% and Samsung gained 3.9%.Taiwan’s TWSE gained 2.52% to 42,712. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index advanced 1.5%, pushing further away from last week’s seven-month low. In the US, the S&P 500 posted its best single day since April 8 (+2.35%),the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.74%, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.40%, and the VIX sank 22.31% to 19.92.Individual stock movers included AMD (+13.26% to $508.58), ASML (+6.21% to $1,513.25), SpaceX (+5.81% to $142.07), Tesla (+5.54% to $378.05), and Meta (+5.12% to $641.37). Apple rose 2.43% to $350.69, sitting just 1.32% shy of its 52-week high.

However, two explicit warnings highlight the fragile nature of this market turn. ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist Nick Twidale noted that while recent developments spark hope that an end to hostilities is near, a substantial gap remains between preliminary diplomacy and a lasting peace agreement. He identified the core risk: markets may have moved too far, too fast, and any sign of stalled negotiations could trigger a sharp price reversal as traders rush to rebuild the geopolitical risk premium. Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene offered a more constructive outlook, noting that valuation and expectation resets are healthy, and the AI trade appears to be navigating its own reset. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee issued a cautionary note on inflation, pointing specifically to AI capex: “We talk to business leaders across our district, and all we hear about is enterprise-level cost and affordability challenges; we must confront these cost and inflation headwinds.” He added: “The buildout of AI data centers is starting to look to me like a classic case of demand overheating.”

Market Round-upEquities and Bonds The weekly snapshot underscores the scale of the rebound: AMD is up 8.94% on the week, Apple +3.66%, Microsoft +7.51%, and Amazon +8.67%. Conversely, Nvidia is down 11.58% and Tesla is down 6.38% over the week, decoupling due to company-specific headlines. On the monthly timeframe, damage remains evident: the Nasdaq 100 is down 9.63%, Alphabet -18.06%, Nvidia -22.07%, and AMD -16.37%. Alphabet’s RSI sits near oversold at 32.9, trading 29.39% below its 52-week high after missing out on recent weeks’ recovery. European equity markets closed firmly higher on Monday: the DAX rose 1.73% to 26,267 (1.59% away from its 52-week high), while the CAC 40 gained 1.16% to 8,233 with an RSI of 64.6 (the strongest in the group). European equities continue to serve as a structural hedge against AI-related market risks. European futures are trading up 0.7% today. In Emerging Markets, Brazil’s Bovespa rose 2.22% to 172,236, and the BIST 100 gained 2.00% to 11,713. The BIST stands out globally with a 6.85% weekly gain, bringing its RSI back to a neutral 49.2, though it remains 22.97% below its 52-week high. In fixed income, the 2-year US Treasury yield ticked up 1.4 bps to 4.56%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.864%.Notably, Japanese investors turned net buyers of foreign bonds in October for the first time in three months (purchasing ¥493.9 billion), alongside ¥1.46 trillion in foreign stock purchases—their largest monthly offshore equity deployment since March.

Forex and Commodities The US Dollar Index is flat at 101.67, with Monday’s decline unwinding Friday’s gains. EUR/USD rose 0.75% to 1.1231, returning to the midpoint of its one-month trading range. GBP/USD advanced 0.67% to 1.3450, supported by the Bank of England’s first rate hike in three years last week.AUD/USD gained 0.85% to 0.6927, and NZD/USD jumped 1.40% to 0.5636. USD/JPY trades at 158.02,making the yen the top-performing G10 currency over the past six months, driven primarily by heavy official intervention. Data released Monday showed Japan spent $97 billion in reserves between late July and August to defend the currency as it hovered near 40-year lows; persistent threats of further dollar sales continue to anchor the currency. Westpac strategist Imre Speizer outlined expectations for today’s CPI release: “There is little room to price in additional rate hikes for December, but market pricing for future meetings could move higher.” Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry identified a medium-term structural risk:volatility in AI tech stocks could slow US economic growth by 2027, ultimately helping form a cyclical top in the US dollar. USD/TRY reached a fresh record high at 50.21.

Precious metals eased slightly on profit-taking but maintain strong weekly gains: Spot Gold gained 0.41% to $4,131.20 (+4.07% weekly); Silver fell 1.35% to $53.28 (+5.04% weekly); Platinum rose 1.49% to $1,584.40 (+8.59% weekly); Palladium rose 1.97% to $1,039 (+7.66% weekly). Capital.com Senior Analyst Kyle Rodda explained the underlying mechanism: “If the US continues to avoid escalating conflict in the Middle East and oil prices retreat as a result, that environment is highly bullish for gold due to its downstream impact on the dollar,inflation expectations, and interest rate paths.” Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated Monday that the central bank must act “deliberately” as it shapes its response to inflation—which remains its primary risk—adding that he has no baseline expectation for what policy action should be taken at the December meeting.Copper gained 0.24% to $6.34 (down 3.05% weekly). Natural gas traded up 0.25% to $3.23, making it the top-performing commodity of the week with a 12.96% gain.

Crypto Bitcoin trades at $74,672 on Tuesday morning, pulling back after briefly topping $75,000 overnight; it is virtually flat over the past 24 hours. The price remains in a localized downtrend after peaking above $87,000 in early October. Ether fell 0.68% to $2,119.01 (RSI: 33.7); Solana dropped 0.78% to $86.02 (RSI deep in oversold at 27.4); XRP traded at $1.0970 (RSI at 26.5, the most stretched in the cohort, down 35.47% from its 52-week high). AVAX was the standout winner of the day, surging 7.67% to $8.54 on direct institutional news detailed below.

Today’s US CPI release is critical for crypto, though analysts are managing expectations due to structural factors. While any softening in inflation metrics benefits risk assets, Bitcoin requires sustained spot buying rather than macroeconomic luck. Until ETF inflows turn consistently positive and the Fed signals a dovish shift,the path of least resistance remains downward. This week’s inflation print presents another hurdle: hot readings could cement expectations for a December rate hike, while softer core inflation could spark a relief rally. However, a lasting Bitcoin recovery depends on underlying liquidity and spot demand improvement rather than macro relief alone. Furthermore, stubborn inflation could constrain the Fed’s ability to provide monetary support even if tech equities weaken; higher capital costs and extended payback periods in capital-intensive AI infrastructure projects could compress returns even if end-demand meets targets. From a technical perspective, analysts note that a daily close below $73,000 could trigger momentum-driven selling toward $70,000, with a deeper break potentially testing July’s sub-$60,000 lows. The recent bounce from sub-$74,000 levels is viewed as a pause in a broader downtrend rather than a structural reversal. The $73,000–$74,000 zone remains key support: stabilization requires balanced derivatives positioning and consistent ETF inflows.Reclaiming and holding $80,000 would signal strong underlying demand, while a decisive breakdown below $73,000 brings $68,000 into view; failing that support would indicate selling beyond temporary leverage liquidations. The upcoming macro calendar is busy: Producer Price Index (PPI) on Nov 13, FOMC October minutes on Nov 18, and the Fed’s preferred inflation metric (PCE) on Nov 25.

On the institutional side, headline news came from the New York Stock Exchange, marking a new milestone in tokenized financial assets. The NYSE announced it will use the Avalanche network as the core ledger for clearing and settlement on its planned tokenized securities platform. Crucially, rather than relying on Avalanche’s public blockchain, the NYSE will deploy a custom private blockchain built on Avalanche technology tailored to regulatory mandates. Ava Labs Head of Business Development John Nahas noted the evaluation process spanned over a year, involving rigorous technical, commercial, and ecosystem reviews.NYSE Head of Digital Assets Dennis Lee outlined core requirements: the exchange needed a settlement ledger capable of high transaction throughput, predictable costs, and strict access controls. The platform will not be restricted to a single network; it is designed to connect to NYSE’s private Avalanche chain to record and settle transactions for assets issued across multiple external blockchains. Competitor Nasdaq is similarly developing tokenized equity infrastructure in partnership with Kraken’s parent company, while DTCC—the centerpiece of US securities clearing—launched a tokenization service last month using private Besu blockchain and Canton Network infrastructure. The NYSE also expanded its transfer agent network to six firms last week.

Key Levels & Events to Watch

• US CPI Data (16:30): Headline expected at 0.3% MoM; core expected at 0.2% MoM (both below September levels). Natixis attributes the core deceleration to normalizing housing costs and stabilizing diesel prices. No YoY figures will be reported.
• Anthropic Roadshow (Today): Details of the ~$70B capital raise were distributed to banks and pulled back. Investors view a successful IPO as vital for maintaining momentum in the AI trade; pricing is targeted for next week.
• Bitcoin ($73,000 / $80,000): According to BRN, a daily close below $73,000 risks a move to $70,000 and potentially July lows. Bitget Wallet notes that reclaiming and holding $80,000 is required to confirm robust spot demand.
• Nvidia Earnings (Next Week): The stock decoupled from yesterday’s broader market rally and sits in oversold territory. Regulatory probes and the Megaspeed investigation will keep executive stability in focus heading into earnings.
• Brent Crude ($91.44): Lowest level since early September. Twidale warns that prices moved too fast; any breakdown in diplomatic talks will quickly restore the geopolitical risk premium.
• CoreWeave Earnings (This Week): Viewed as a barometer for AI infrastructure profitability, serving as a second major test for the sustainability of yesterday’s tech rally.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Indicator
Nov 10	Tuesday	US October CPI (16:30); Anthropic official roadshow launch; US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials begin 2-day talks in Abu Dhabi
Nov 11	Wednesday	CoreWeave earnings; MSCI index rebalancing announcements (Strategy and Metaplanet facing exclusion risk)
Nov 13	Friday	US Producer Price Index (PPI)
Nov 18	Wednesday	FOMC October Meeting Minutes
Next Week	—	Nvidia earnings; Anthropic IPO pricing
Nov 25	Wednesday	US PCE Inflation Data (Fed’s preferred inflation metric)
Dec 9	Wednesday	FOMC Rate Decision (84–85% hike probability); Bank of Japan expected to hike rate to 1.50%