Market Summary: Fed Rate Hike Bets Shift as AI Dip-Buyers Offer Relief

Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Daily briefing on Fed rate hike sizing, AI revenue relief, oil supply shocks, and Bitcoin’s key test.

Daily Summary

Our View: The question is no longer “Will the Fed hike?” but “By how much?”—and that is a far weightier question for risk assets. The rate market isn’t just pricing in one more hike; it is questioning how restrictive US monetary policy ultimately needs to be. Today, we will see a two-way market: on one hand, a hawkish Fed path is being priced in; on the other, dip buyers emerge in AI stocks on any positive headline. CoreWeave’s earnings fed this second narrative and provided genuine relief, with revenue surging 168% and the company outlining a path to profitability in H1 2028. However, HSBC’s warning is also noteworthy: the rotation into defensive sectors has grown extreme, with Walmart trading near record highs at 40x forward earnings, while Nvidia trades near record lows at 13x. Bitcoin sits just above its 200-day moving average, with two consecutive closes below it serving as the critical threshold.

• CoreWeave’s earnings dispelled AI fears; revenue surged 168%. The company announced it expects to turn profitable in the first half of 2028, sending the stock up 8% post-market after dropping 40% over the past month. Nasdaq futures are up 1.4%.
• Core CPI came in at 0.3%, keeping a 50 bps hike on the table. Expectations were at 0.2%, while headline CPI topped estimates at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Ahead of the data, Fed Governor Waller stated that a 0.3% reading would make him consider a 50 bps move in December.
• The 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 18 bps, triggering a sell-off in Asian bonds. Japan’s 10-year yield rose 11 bps to 2.795%, and Australia’s 10-year yield climbed 6 bps to 5.05%. A 25 bps hike in December is fully priced in, while the probability of a 50 bps move stands at 10–15%.
• Nvidia lost $430 billion in market value over two days. The stock fell another 5.47% yesterday to $168.89, dragging its market capitalization down to $4.07 trillion—its lowest level since late March. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 23.9, deep in oversold territory.
• Anthropic proceeds with its $1.4 trillion valuation. The company is seeking up to $64.4 billion in its IPO, alongside a $26 billion private placement, targeting up to $90.4 billion in total funding; the stock price is expected in the $70–$78 range. TSMC approved investments of up to $1 billion combined in Anthropic and OpenAI.
• SoftBank reported a $7 billion loss. Heavy construction costs for US data centers drove the second-quarter net loss; the company logged a $3.7 billion loss over six months due to changes in power generation equipment procurement plans.
• In October, 37 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz—the highest monthly figure since the war began. Brent crude recovered 1.3% from a two-month low to $92.68; an Iranian security official stated that no talks are taking place between the parties.
• Today: US Veterans Day holiday (bond market closed); Germany October inflation; ECB President Lagarde participates in a panel in Paris. MSCI announces index exclusions.

Story of the Day

The Question Has Shifted: Not If They Hike, But the Size of the Hike

US inflation data released on Tuesday shifted the axis of market debate. Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, topping the 0.3% consensus estimate. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Looking at the breakdown: food rose 0.5%, energy 0.7%, gasoline 1.0%, and shelter 0.3%. Year-over-year comparisons were unavailable because last October’s government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting a full price set; Bank of America estimated prior to the release that annual rates were running near 3.8% headline and 2.7% core.

The critical detail lies in the timing: hours before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he was “leaning” toward a December hike and issued a clear warning—noting that if inflation came in hotter than expected, he would support a “stronger move” and believed a 50 bps hike should be considered at the December meeting. He added that raising rates by only 25 bps would jeopardize credibility, a risk he was unwilling to take. The data landed precisely at the figure he had highlighted.

A chorus of Fed officials reinforced this message. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that two more hikes are needed and likely should be executed promptly; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned of a “real inflation problem”; and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson called for gradual increases. The resulting repricing was immediate: a quarter-point hike in December is now virtually guaranteed, the probability of a 50 bps move sits at 10–15%, and three quarter-point hikes are fully priced in through mid-next year.Goldman Sachs quickly issued a call for an additional hike in March. Two-year US Treasury yields jumped 18 bps overnight, the 10-year yield reached 4.983%, and the sell-off spilled into Asian bond markets: Japan’s 10-year yield rose 11 bps to 2.795%, while Australia’s rose 6 bps to 5.05%.

The primary issue is not the rate hike itself. The rate market is not merely pricing in another hike; it is questioning how restrictive US monetary policy ultimately needs to be—a far more consequential debate for risk assets. Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, echoes this view:despite technical uncertainties, higher-than-desired inflation levels will keep the Fed dissatisfied with the lack of progress on inflation. Thus, a December rate hike remains the base case for both BlackRock and the market; the question is now centered on the magnitude of that hike. In foreign exchange, the Australian dollar was the primary casualty, falling nearly 0.9% overnight to a seven-month low as traders bet the central bank has concluded its tightening cycle following five hikes this year and could cut rates next year; it currently trades at 0.6878. The US Dollar Index rose to 102.30, nearing its highest level since October 29.

CoreWeave Dispelled Fears, but the Rotation Debate Persists

The company at the center of AI bubble concerns posted better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday evening,providing relief to the market. Q3 revenue at Nvidia-backed AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave surged 168%, and the company projected profitability in the first half of 2028. Its stock rose 8% post-market, following a 40% decline over the past month. The positive sentiment extended to Asia: the MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 1.9% for its third consecutive session of gains, with South Korea up 2.24% to 5,356, Taiwan surging 3.62% to 44,257, and the Nikkei rising 1.24% to 61,212. CoreWeave’s results were delivered after market close to an anxious market, rewarding investors who held out for positive news. Higher borrowing costs down the line, however, remain an evident headwind for corporate balances.

For Nvidia, the sell-off paused, but structural damage remains substantial. The stock dropped another 5.47% on Tuesday to $168.89, erasing $430 billion in market value over two sessions and bringing its valuation down to $4.07 trillion—its lowest since late March. Its RSI stands at 23.9, deep in oversold territory, sitting 30.60% below its 52-week high. Pressures persist amid speculation surrounding Jensen Huang following reports of an investigation into foreign intelligence operations targeting him, raising questions over leadership continuity.

Conversely, Anthropic is proceeding with its IPO at a $1.4 trillion valuation, viewed as a bellwether test of Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom. The company is seeking up to $64.4 billion in the public offering alongside a $26 billion private placement—aiming for up to $90.4 billion in total capital—with shares expected to price between $70 and $78. The retail offering in Australia opened Wednesday and closes on November 17.TSMC’s board approved investments of up to $500 million in Anthropic shares at the IPO price and up to $500 million in OpenAI preferred stock; TSMC shares rose 2.02%.

Meanwhile, a sector rotation debate has emerged on Wall Street, splitting market commentary into two camps:

1. The Risk-Off View: Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell, describes markets as being on “high alert,” pointing to performance metrics: across the S&P Global 1200, healthcare and consumer staples were the top performers behind energy in H2. Meanwhile, information technology—which led H1 with a 28.4% gain—fell over 11% in H2, marking it as the worst-performing sector. In Mould’s words, tech went “from penthouse to basement.”
2. The Overextended View: Alastair Pinder, Head of Emerging Markets and Global Equity Strategy at HSBC, views these market moves as “sharp, and in our view, overdone.” Pinder notes that the market has already priced in higher execution risks and capex delays. With US semiconductors trading at 13.5x 12-month forward earnings following a 45% valuation compression since June, he questions how much more downside remains priced in. His comparison is striking: the rotation into defensives appears stretched,with Walmart trading near record highs at 40x forward earnings, while Nvidia trades near record lows at 13x.

Market Round-Up

Equities & Bonds

Wall Street closed Tuesday in negative territory: the Dow dropped 0.30% to 52,232, the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,521, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.60% to 27,741. The S&P 500 sits 4.13% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite is 9.6% off its peak; the S&P closed above its 200-day moving average but below its 50-day average. Outside of Nvidia, price action was contained: Microsoft fell 2.20% to $533.16, and Apple slipped 0.62% to $348.51. Conversely, Amazon gained 1.48% to $270.87, TSMC rose 2.02% to $396.48, and AMD gained 1.30% to $515.21. Alphabet dipped 0.27% to $287.38 with an RSI of 32.5 (nearing oversold levels) and remains 29.58% below its 52-week high, failing to participate in the broader relief rally.

Today, the US bond market is closed for the Veterans Day holiday, while equity markets remain open. Nasdaq futures are up 1.4%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, and European futures are up 0.7%. European equities closed strong on Tuesday: the DAX gained 0.31% to 26,347 (1.29% below its 52-week high), while the CAC 40 rose 0.55% to 8,279 with an RSI of 66.6, the strongest in the peer group. The BIST 100 slipped 0.43% to 11,662 but holds a weekly gain of 5.79%; its RSI stands at a neutral 48.2, leaving the index 23.30% below its 52-week peak.

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

The US Dollar Index trades at 102.30, near a two-week high, with an RSI of 56.2. The Euro fell 0.57% to 1.1158, Sterling dropped 0.78% to 1.3337, and the Japanese Yen weakened 0.54% to 158.84. The Swiss Franc shed 0.87% to 0.8267, and the Canadian Dollar dropped 0.62% to 1.4207. As noted, the Australian Dollar was the day’s largest loser, trading near a seven-month low at 0.6878; the New Zealand Dollar stands at 0.5607. USD/TRY hit a new peak at 50.23, pushing its RSI to an overbought 94.9.

In commodities, crude oil recovered from two-month lows: Brent crude rose 1.30% to $92.68, and WTI gained 0.88% to $86.80, after Brent touched an overnight low of $89.16. The rebound was driven by continued maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,37 vessels were attacked in October—the highest monthly figure since the war began—with no signs of deceleration in November. June Goh, Senior Analyst at Sparta Commodities, summarized the environment:amid uncertainty in diplomatic talks, vessel attacks in Gulf shipping lanes have escalated. With US midterms behind us and higher Middle Eastern crude flows, oil prices display a more bearish underlying tone. LSEG Oil Research added a note of caution: even if a diplomatic agreement is reached, normalizing waterway flows will depend on mine clearing operations, insurance costs, and shipowner risk appetite. US crude oil inventories increased by 9 million barrels for the week ending November 6.

Precious metals rebounded after overnight losses of up to 2.6%: gold gained 0.85% to $4,064.40, silver rose 3.56% to $52.92, palladium jumped 3.01% to $1,049, and platinum advanced 2.23% to $1,573.20. On a weekly basis, palladium is up 12.80%, platinum 9.83%, and silver 6.72%. Natural gas trades at $3.29, leading commodities with a weekly gain of 13.58%.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded down 1.16% on Wednesday morning at $73,804, nearing a three-month low after dropping to $72,585 on Kraken Tuesday—its lowest level since August 20. Approximately $178 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour following the inflation data release. Ether fell 2.51% to $2,065.18, with an RSI of 29.6 (oversold) sitting 26.44% below its 52-week high. Solana slipped 3.49% to $83.01 with an RSI of 23.9.XRP dropped 3.76% to $1.0584; its RSI of 23.7 marks it as the most stretched asset in the group, down 37.74% from its peak.

On the technical chart, Bitcoin sits just above its 200-day moving average (located between $73,150 and $73,156); its 100-day moving average stands at $77,416, and the 50-day average at $81,626. IG analyst Axel Rudolph provides a clear condition: if Bitcoin closes below its 200-day moving average for two consecutive days, a fresh wave of selling is likely, with the next downside target near the April low of $70,500. For the correction to remain healthy, buyer defense between $72,000 and $75,000 will be decisive.

Flow dynamics remain the primary source of pressure, driven by substantial capital flight:

Asset Class / Product	Recent Flow / Metric	Context & Significance
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs	-$1.282 Billion (Last Week)	Largest weekly outflow since late June; 4 out of 5 trading days negative.
BlackRock IBIT	-$213 Million (Monday)	Contributed to a $201M net daily outflow; 7th consecutive session of red flows.
Year-to-Date ETF Balance	-$914 Million	YTD net flow turned negative, reversing $6B in net inflows accumulated since early August.
Ether ETFs	-$184.6 Million (Monday)	Parallel institutional redemptions across major crypto wrappers.

The flow mechanism is direct: redemptions force funds to liquidate underlying spot assets, translating ETF outflows directly into market sell orders.

Derivatives reflect a more balanced picture. On Deribit, perpetual contract funding rates have lingered near zero for a week, hovering around 0.004% per eight-hour window—indicating minimal premium paid by longs and partial leverage unwinding. Glassnode highlights a similar dynamic: while ETF supply overhang and cautious short-term holders weigh on spot prices, systemic leverage has largely been cleared.

Options market positioning reveals clear defense lines. For the November 27 monthly expiry on Deribit, open interest shows 40,737 BTC in call options against 36,468 BTC in put options (a put/call ratio of 0.9). Put open interest concentrates heavily at $75,000 (~3,150 BTC), $72,000 (~2,790 BTC), and $70,000 (~2,700 BTC).The “max pain” price point sits at $79,000. For the near-term November 13 weekly expiry, calls outpace puts (20,708 BTC vs. 12,435 BTC), with the largest single concentration in $81,000 calls; however, these remain out of the money and risk expiring worthless without price recovery. Implied volatility (Deribit DVOL) holds steady at 40 points—unchanged week-over-week—indicating the options market is not pricing in panic, but establishing firm structural support at $72,000 and $70,000.

Sentiment data from Santiment indicates that bearish comments for Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP have outpaced bullish ones; Bitcoin’s sentiment ratio stands at 0.82, while XRP sees nearly 2 bearish comments for every 1 bullish comment. Santiment notes that extreme fear alone does not signal a definitive bottom; rather, fear combined with price stability has historically provided a stronger reversal signal. Currently, only the fear condition has been met; holding above the November 10 low of $73,000 would satisfy the price stability component.

On the regulatory front, the crypto industry aligned with its primary regulator for a second time in a case involving single-stock perpetual futures: Coinbase, Kraken, and Kalshi contend these products qualify as futures rather than swaps, opposing the stance held by the Citadel Securities-backed Capital Markets Alliance.

Levels to Watch

• Bitcoin 200-Day Moving Average ($73,150): Axel Rudolph’s condition is explicit—two consecutive daily closes below this level trigger a new sell-off targeting $70,500. Tuesday’s close marked day one of this test.
• ETF Outflows: $1.282 billion pulled last week, marking the largest weekly exit since late June. Year-to-date net flows turned negative; sustained spot recovery remains constrained until flows stabilize.
• December FOMC (10–15% Odds of 50 bps): Inflation metrics landed precisely at Governor Waller’s threshold. With multiple FOMC members leaning hawkish, the size of the hike is the primary market variable.
• Anthropic Valuation (Next Week): Seeking up to $90.4 billion in total funding at a $1.4 trillion valuation ($70–$78 price range). A key barometer for institutional appetite in AI infrastructure.
• Nvidia Multiple (13x Forward Earnings): HSBC’s valuation comparison highlights market divergence—Walmart trades near historical highs at 40x forward earnings, while Nvidia trades near historic lows at 13x.
• Brent Crude ($92.68): 37 vessel attacks logged in October. LSEG analysis stresses that even with diplomatic progress, supply normalization depends on mine clearing and maritime insurance costs.

Calendar of the Week

Date	Day	Event / Indicator
Nov 11	Wednesday	US Veterans Day Holiday (Bond market closed); Germany Oct Inflation; ECB President Lagarde panel in Paris; MSCI Index review announcement (Strategy & Metaplanet at risk of exclusion); Anthropic Australian retail offering opens.
Nov 13	Friday	US Producer Price Index (PPI); Bitcoin weekly options expiry.
Nov 17	Tuesday	Anthropic Australian retail offering closes.
Nov 18	Wednesday	FOMC October Meeting Minutes.
Next Week	—	Nvidia Earnings; Anthropic IPO Pricing ($1.4T valuation, $70–$78 target range).
Nov 25	Wednesday	US PCE Inflation Data; Deribit monthly crypto options expiry (Nov 27).
Dec 9	Wednesday	FOMC Rate Decision (25 bps fully priced; 50 bps probability at 10–15%).