Is Bitcoin cheap or expensive?
Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk, which allows the confidence of long-term investors to be evaluated according to the current pricing of the market, is found by the price/HOLD Bank formula.
- A suitable buying opportunity for positions with attractive risk/reward ratios when confidence is high and price is low: Green Zone
- When confidence is low and the price is high, the risk/reward ratio is not attractive and there is no market that increases the trader’s appetite for opening positions: the red zone
- When the 2017 peak level is reached, we see that the sell signal comes in the red zone, but it has not reached the red zone at the 2021 peak level. When we examine the latest situation in the indicator, which continues to give positive signals in 2019 and 2020, it shows that the Bitcoin price, which is over $ 20,000, has the appropriate risk/reward ratio for long-term investors and is located in the appropriate regions for investment.
What does it mean when the risk/reward ratio is attractive?
When a loss of $1 is taken into account, the probability of getting a return of $3 in return indicates that the risk-win ratio is attractive (it may vary according to people’s risk perception.) However, risking the same rate of loss -1 tl- for a 1 TL win is not a sustainable risk perception and usually does not attract investors.
Puell Multiple
Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issue value of Bitcoins (in USD) by the moving average of the 365-day daily issue value.
When we check the past signals of this indicator, which allows us to comment on the miner-market relationship, its consistency at the 2017 and 2021 peaks (marked in green on the chart) increases the strength and value of the indicator. At the same time, with the consistency in the signals that Bitcoin has reached the bottoms in 2018, 2020 and 2021, we are now receiving the signal that the bottoms of 2022 have been reached according to Puell Multiple, which has attracted attention.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score is an indicator of whether the instant price is cheap or expensive relative to the “fair value” of Bitcoin, where historical signals are very strong.
According to historical data, when the market price is much higher than the fair price, it is observed that the selling pressure increases in the market and the prices retreat. MVRV Z-Skor, which successfully repeated this signal at the 2017 and 2021 peak levels, sees that Bitcoin is currently in the appropriate regions for buying.
Assessment:
According to the chain data, Bitcoin, which is already relatively affordable, is at suitable levels for buying when we exclude negative catalysts such as macro risks, negative news flows, index correlations. The inference to be drawn from these metrics shows that the long-term risk/reward ratios are at good levels. For short-term trading, it is useful to use metrics such as open interest, funding rate, especially on the futures side, not market indicators. I think that the mass of investors who see value in crypto and do not doubt their future is not the time to withdraw from the market according to the chain data, but to set their eyes on the market.
