BTC Decouples from Equities Amidst Global Oil Crisis and Geopolitical Tensions

Friday, March 13, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

Over the past two weeks, the BTC-S&P 500 correlation was at a very high level of 0.78. In other words, BTC was moving almost in lockstep with equities. This week, that picture has begun to change:

• Yesterday, while the S&P fell -1.5% and the Nasdaq dropped -1.8%, BTC held $70,000.
• Overnight, following the Bessent news, BTC rose to $72,000; today it is at $71,300.
• While stocks hit their lowest close since November 2025, BTC is up on a weekly basis. This is a significant decoupling.

Yesterday, the Dow fell -1.6%, the S&P 500 -1.5%, and the Nasdaq -1.8%. The S&P and Nasdaq reached their lowest closes since November 2025. The Russell 2000 broke its year-to-date low. Brent crude topped $100 for the first time since August 2022. WTI closed at $118 with a 9.6% increase, its highest close since 2018. This week, WTI’s weekly gain stands at +22.9%.

Late last night, a development shook the markets: Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that temporary authorization would be granted for the purchase of Russian oil stranded at sea. This news immediately pushed BTC to $72,000 and pulled WTI back by $2. This morning, BTC is in the $71,000-$71,300 range, ETH is at $2,117 (+4.6%), SOL is up +5%, and XRP is at $1.41.

1. STRAIT OF HORMUZ – NO POLITICAL SOLUTION

The most critical development yesterday was the first statement from Mojtaba Khamenei. Iran’s new Supreme Leader rejected the U.S. call for “unconditional surrender,” confirmed that Hormuz would remain closed, and warned that “new fronts could open” if the war continues. Three more commercial vessels have been hit in the last 24 hours.

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research: “Economic and military solutions have failed to open the Strait. The world needs a political solution, not a military one.” Currently, a political solution seems distant.

Compounding the situation was Trump’s statement on social media last night: “The U.S. is profiting from high oil prices.” According to Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, this comment “shook investors’ expectations for a quick resolution and the foundation of the U.S. markets’ calm approach to the crisis.“

The IEA announced that the Hormuz blockage is the largest blow to global production in the history of oil; passages through Hormuz affect 7.5% of global supply. Goldman Sachs warned that if the Strait remains closed through March, oil could surpass the 2008 peak of $147.50.

2. IS THE DECOUPLING IN BTC BEGINNING?

There is a striking pattern this week: while stocks fell sharply, BTC held $70,000. It maintained the $70,000 support throughout yesterday and surged to $72,000 with the Bessent news. It is currently around $71,300.

Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Analyst at FxPro: “BTC feels more secure at the $70K levels, settling at the upper bound of the last four weeks’ consolidation range. Staying so resilient in an environment of a strong dollar and falling equity indices indicates a fundamental shift in sentiment compared to previous months when every piece of news was used as a reason to sell.”

However, Glassnode’s warning is important: the current phase is “stabilization, not a rally.” For a sustained bull run, the rotation of existing investors is not enough; a fresh inflow of capital is required.

Significant news from BlackRock: the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) opened with $100 million in assets and $15 million in trading volume on its first day. This fund, which stakes 70-95% of its ETH and distributes monthly payments, signals a transition to the second generation of ETFs.

3. STAGFLATION – GOLDMAN’S WARNING

When Goldman Sachs’ $147.50 oil warning is combined with Citi analyst Beata Manthey’s observation, the gravity of the situation emerges: “Price/earnings ratios in equity markets are at historic highs just as a significant geopolitical shock has arrived. This makes stocks extremely sensitive to any news.”

If oil remains around $100, it could shave 0.1% off GDP growth. Above $150, the risk of recession looms. The Fed is completely boxed in: on one side, slowing growth (92K job losses in February Non-Farm Payrolls), and on the other, accelerating inflation due to the oil shock. Only one rate cut is priced in for this year. The FOMC is 4 days away.

4. TODAY’S CALENDAR

Time (ET)	Event	Importance / Details
08:30	🔴 PCE January	Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
08:30	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Consumer confidence data
March 17	Reserve Bank of Australia + Nvidia GTC	Central bank decision & AI Conference
March 18	🔴🔴 Fed Interest Rate Decision	Includes Bank of Canada decision
March 19	Central Bank Decisions	Japan, Switzerland, and Europe

Note on PCE: Today’s PCE data is decisive for the markets. The expectation for January core annual data is 2.9%. This will directly impact the Fed’s tone on March 18. If it comes in above expectations, risk assets may react sharply, making it difficult for BTC to hold above $72,000. If it comes in below expectations, the rally that started with the Bessent news could continue.