Powell Eases Markets — WSJ: Trump Could End the War
Tuesday, March 31, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.
1. REASSURING MESSAGE FROM THE FED – MARKETS BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF
Powell’s Harvard Speech (March 30): Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the U.S. Central Bank will currently move forward by monitoring oil price shocks and is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady. He emphasized that inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.”
- The probability of a rate hike has dropped dramatically: The probability of a 2026 rate hike, which was 25% on Friday, fell to 5% on Monday (CME FedWatch).
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points: Dropped to 4.35%. The 2-year yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.83%.
- Powell’s statement: “Eventually, we may be faced with the question of what to do about this. We haven’t really faced that question yet because we don’t know what the economic effects will be.”
This statement alleviated the “Fed might hike rates” concern, a major risk factor for markets, at least in the short term. However, with WTI closing at $105 and Brent remaining in the $111-$114 range, the pressure on risk assets has not been entirely lifted.
2. CRITICAL NEWS: TRUMP COULD END THE WAR EVEN WITHOUT HORMUZ
WSJ Report: The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told those close to him that the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. This is a signal of softening far beyond expectations; stock markets and crypto reacted with a sharp upward move.
- S&P 500 futures initially fell but turned 1% positive following the WSJ news.
- Bitcoin rose to $68,335 — then pulled back to the $67k-$68k band.
- Brent crude is around the $111 region — this scenario suggests that oil prices could retreat slightly even if Hormuz is not fully open.
Apollo Crypto: “The market is pricing in Trump’s desire to end the war. Bitcoin’s price around $68,000 is extremely sticky.” Additionally, it was stated that put option purchases might decrease over the next few weeks.
Warning: In the last 5 weeks of the war, every piece of good news turned into escalation news within 12-24 hours. The same pattern may occur this time. Caution is required.
3. BTC TECHNICAL: $65,000 DEFENSE AND SHORT SQUEEZE POTENTIAL
After BTC fell to $65,112 on Monday, a strong recovery took place. There is a technical signal behind this recovery.
Order Book Analysis — The $65,000 Defense
- When it fell below $65,000, the buy-sell ratio in the 1%-10% range of the order book rose to the 99th percentile in favor of buyers — unusually strong demand.
- Cointelegraph: “This reflects that while selling pressure is weakening, buy orders are being met at critical liquidity zones.”
- The 4-hour chart confirmed a bullish structure shift. However, the daily close needs to stay above $66,700.
Short Squeeze Potential
- There is an accumulation of $1.6 billion worth of short positions at the $71,000 level.
- If the price approaches this zone, a partial short squeeze rally could be triggered by the forced closure of short positions.
- Early April window: Historical data shows that a short-term bottom was formed at the beginning of the month 67% of the time over the last 9 months.
Historical Impact of $105 WTI on BTC
| Date | Reason | BTC Reaction | Duration |
| June 2014 | ISIS entered Iraq | -21% | 10 weeks |
| March 2022 | Russia-Ukraine | -14% | 7 days (all reversed) |
| May 2022 | EU Russian oil embargo | -27% | 19-month bear market |
| March 2026 | Iran War / Houthis | ? | Uncertain |
Note: The long bear markets in 2014 and 2022 had their own critical catalysts (Mt. Gox, Terra-Luna). The pure oil-BTC correlation consists of only 3 examples in 12 years of data — statistically very weak. But whether the $65K floor holds is critical.
4. GOLD: WORST MONTH OF MARCH, BUT RECOVERY BEGINS
- Gold lost 15% in value in March, recording its worst monthly performance since October 2008.
- However, it is still +5% positive on a quarterly basis.
- Recovery has started: Spot gold is at $4,544, silver at $70.81 — as a result of the completion of forced liquidations and demand.
- Rate hike probability fell from 25% to 5% → Dollar pressure decreased → Gold found relief.
- 10-year yield -9 bps: A direct positive signal for gold.
5. END OF MARCH — QUARTERLY CLOSE
| Asset | March Change | Note |
| GOLD | -15% | Worst month since October 2008 |
| Nasdaq | -10%+ | Closed in correction territory |
| S&P 500 | -7% | Lowest since September |
| BTC | +3% | Best major: Resilient while everything else sold off |
| Brent | +90% YTD | Sharpest increase since the start of the war |
| Wheat | +22% War | Food inflation is now in play |
| SILVER | -15% | Same structural pressure as Gold |
The most striking divergence of March: BTC gains +3% while Gold closes at -15%, S&P at -7%, and Nasdaq at -10%. This performance challenges the thesis that “Bitcoin is not a safe haven during war.” Institutional ETF flows support this: a net inflow of $2.5 billion during the month.
6. THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR
| Date | Data / Event | Importance |
| Today, March 31 | Consumer Confidence (March) | First major data measuring the war’s impact |
| Wed, April 1 | ADP Employment (March) | Leading indicator for NFP |
| Wed, April 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Health of production |
| Fri, April 3 | EMPLOYMENT REPORT (March) | CRITICAL DATA OF THE WEEK: Feb -92K |
| April 6 (Tue) | Trump-Iran deadline | Most critical geopolitical date |
| US Dept. of Defense | Briefing Today at 8 AM ET | War Department press conference |