Global Market Analysis: Geopolitical Escalation and the Paradox of Gold

26 March 2026 | ICRYPEX | Daily Newsletter

Thursday, March 26, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the volatility of risk assets.

Yesterday, markets clung to hopes of peace. Dow +0.7%, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%. Brent crude settled just below $100. Gold jumped 4%. Risk appetite seemed to have returned.

This morning, the picture has changed.

U.S. Central Command announced that the vast majority of Iran’s missile, drone, and warship production facilities have been damaged or completely destroyed. Meanwhile, the White House explicitly threatened further strikes if Tehran does not reach an agreement. Additionally, Iran hinted at closing or seizing control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—a second critical waterway—via the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. ground forces have begun massing near the Iranian border.

On the other hand, there is a contradictory signal within the same news cycle: Iran is rejecting the U.S. offer through official media, but Arab mediators and sources say Tehran is evaluating diplomatic steps via private channels. Trump stated that Iran wants to reach a deal but cannot say so openly for fear of being killed if they accept.

In short: while the market priced in the optimistic scenario yesterday, it is pricing in the realistic scenario today. Both scenarios are on the table simultaneously, which means volatility will remain high.

March 25 Close: Dow +0.7%, S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%. Best sector: Materials (+2%); worst sector: Energy (-0.5%), as energy stocks were sold off while oil prices fell.

THE GOLD PARADOX — WHY IS GOLD FALLING DESPITE THE WAR?

Under normal conditions: Geopolitical risk = Gold demand = Price increase. This time, the mechanism is working in reverse:

  • Rising Oil → Increased inflation expectations
  • Increased Inflation Expectations → Stronger expectations that interest rates will remain high or increase
  • Interest Rate Pressure → Exit from non-yielding assets like gold/silver

Additionally, margin calls on leveraged positions accelerated the sale of liquid assets. Gold has retreated 21% from its January peak.

However, the picture is not one-sided. Yesterday, Brent fell to $93.94 (on news of a peace plan), and gold jumped 4%. Today, as the war escalates, gold is being sold off again. The paradox is this: if peace comes, oil drops, inflation concerns ease, and gold recovers, but “safe haven” demand disappears. If the war continues, oil remains high, inflation/interest rate pressure persists, and gold remains under pressure. In either scenario, it is difficult to find a short-term upward catalyst for gold.

Technical Note: RSI has dropped to 31.37—nearing the oversold zone. The EMA200 is at $4,208. Technical buying may occur at this level.

GENERAL ASSESSMENT

Today’s message is clear: yesterday’s optimism was premature. The Bab-el-Mandeb threat puts a second strait risk on the table alongside Hormuz. U.S. ground forces are on the Iranian border. In this atmosphere, risk assets are being sold, and oil will face upward pressure again.

The only “good” news is the contradictory diplomatic channels: Iran rejects negotiations through official channels but seeks a deal through private ones. This uncertainty will keep volatility high but also prevents a total collapse.

For BTC: The critical level is the $68K–$67K zone; it has not dipped below this band before. There may be a recovery attempt before the MACD negative crossover is completed, but the current structure is skewed toward selling. Leveraged buildup is high; a sharp move could accelerate rapidly in either direction.