Global Markets at a Crossroads: The Iran Peace Plan, Macro Stagnation, and Asset Decoupling

Wednesday, March 25, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

Today, the markets have only one agenda: Iran. Uncertainty persists; Trump announced a ceasefire which Iran subsequently denied, leading to $800 million in liquidations. This morning, however, the scene has shifted.

According to Bloomberg, the US has conveyed a 15-point peace plan to Tehran via Pakistan. Furthermore, Washington is pushing for a one-month ceasefire. Brent crude broke the $100 level it had struggled with for weeks, retreating to $99.55, a daily drop of 4.7%. Consequently, Asian markets rose 1.9% today. The Dollar weakened, and US and European futures are pointing upward.

March 24 Close: Nasdaq -0.84%, S&P 500 -0.37%, Dow -0.18%. Energy was the sole winning sector (+2.1%); as oil rose, indices turned red.

With this morning’s dip in oil, the picture has reversed and risk appetite has returned. However, caution is warranted: yesterday, Trump claimed negotiations with Iran were ongoing, Iran denied it, and everything flipped instantly. The same scenario could repeat today. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with only limited vessel transit continuing.

Inflation and PMI

The S&P Global PMI data released on March 24 provided the first concrete signs of the Iran conflict’s impact on the economy. Manufacturing came in slightly above expectations, while the services sector fell slightly short. Overall business activity growth slowed to an 11-month low. But the real message came from prices: the increase in selling prices is at its fastest pace since August 2022. Inflationary pressure continues to build in oil.

On the employment front, companies are reducing headcounts citing uncertainty. The risk of stagflation is becoming tangible. While no one is explicitly saying the Fed will hike rates, the hurdles preventing a rate cut are rising steadily.

Private Credit and Software

Two other areas of “bleeding” from March 24 deserve mention. First, the private credit sector: Apollo Global capped redemptions at 5% for a $25 billion fund (investors sought to exit at 11.5%). BlackRock and Morgan Stanley took similar steps. These structures feel like bank deposits but lack deposit insurance—cracks may be widening.

Second, AI software stocks. Anthropic’s new Claude tools shook the market—usage rates are moving beyond coding into office and financial tasks. This is a concrete signal that AI may truly substitute human labor, and the market responded with a fear reflex. The iShares Software ETF dropped -4.3% in a single day.

GOLD & SILVER

As of today, Gold has retreated over 20% from its January 2026 peak of $5,600, meeting the technical definition of a bear market. Last week, it recorded its worst weekly performance since September 2011.

Why? For some time, gold traded as a “war asset.” With oil above $100, rising inflation, and a hamstrung Fed, the environment was theoretically perfect for gold. However, the market has now started pricing in the peace plan. Peace = lower oil = easing inflation = a relieved Fed = decreased unconditional demand for gold.

Technically, the situation is critical: EMA20 is at $4,841, EMA50 at $4,845—the price is well below both at $4,551. RSI has dropped to 35.9. MACD is sharply negative. However, there is slight buying in CVD, suggesting some “smart money” is accumulating at these lows. Whether the price heads toward the EMA200 ($4,206) or attempts a bounce to the EMA20 will be determined by developments in oil.

Silver is a different story: it fell alongside gold, but silver’s issue is more industrial. Looking at the weakness in Copper, the picture becomes clear—the market is exiting metals in favor of risk appetite. Silver is under double pressure as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. It sits around $73, below both short-term EMAs, with CVD turning significantly negative recently.

COPPER

Copper was a great story in Q1 of this year. Fearing Trump’s tariffs, US buyers stockpiled, driving the Comex-LME spread to record levels. The price skyrocketed from $4.30 to $6.50.

Now, we are seeing the second act. Uncertainty regarding tariffs persists, and the Iran peace plan is clouding industrial demand expectations. EMA20 ($5.70) and EMA50 ($5.76) are above the price, while EMA200 provides support at $5.37. RSI is at 42.5—under selling pressure but not technically oversold. Relief rallies will likely face selling pressure around the EMA50. The medium-term outlook remains murky.

Bitcoin — Consolidation or Bottom?

BTC is currently at $71,201, marking three consecutive closes above $70K. This is a small but vital signal—it hasn’t been forced into a breakdown.

• Technical: EMA20 ($70,336) provides support; EMA50 ($72,167) is the immediate overhead resistance. RSI is at a reasonable 52.20.
• On-chain: Per CryptoQuant, net outflows from exchanges continued through March. Investors are moving BTC to cold storage—a signal of accumulation rather than speculation. Selling pressure from short-term holders is also fading.
• Correlation: The BTC-Gold correlation hit a 3-year low. While Gold fell 20% from its January ATH, BTC has remained roughly flat. This decoupling is significant; the market is starting to view BTC through a different lens.

Ethereum — Relative Weakness Persists

ETH is at $2,171. With a weekly return of -7%, it is the worst performer among major crypto assets. It is squeezed between the EMA20 ($2,122) and EMA50 ($2,196), with the EMA200 ($2,781) far above. The ETH/BTC pair continues to break down, as ETH carries higher beta and its ecosystem is more vulnerable in risk-off environments.

XRP — Compressed but Catalyzed

XRP is at $1.4217, squeezed between the EMA20 ($1.42) and EMA50 ($1.49). RSI is neutral at 48.9. Despite a negative CVD (-226K), whale wallets accumulated roughly 40 million XRP last week.

• Catalyst: Ripple is testing trade finance with RLUSD in the Central Bank of Singapore’s (MAS) BLOOM sandbox. MAS acceptance would be a major signal for RLUSD as an institutional-grade settlement asset.

AVAX — Structural Breakdown

AVAX is at $9.66, telling a different story. The EMA200 ($14.34) is far above, and the price is struggling around the EMA20 ($9.53) and EMA50 ($9.84). It is down 72% from its October peak of $34.63. There is currently no concrete catalyst to prefer AVAX over stronger L1s like SOL or more liquid ones like ETH.

REGULATORY FRONT

On March 24, Circle (CRCL) stock plunged -20%—its worst day since its IPO. The culprit: the Clarity Act. The bill could ban stablecoin balances from paying direct or indirect “yield,” similar to bank deposits. This is critical as Circle’s business model relies heavily on interest from USDC reserves. Coinbase (COIN) also dropped -9.76% as it shares in Circle’s revenue. This regulatory risk is flying under the radar due to the Iran news.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

This week boils down to one question: Will the 15-point peace plan materialize?

• If it does: Oil drops to the $90s, inflation pressure eases, the Fed breathes, and risk appetite surges. BTC could test the $75K–$80K range. Gold may recover but loses its war-premium driver.
• If it fails: (Iran rejects it or talks stall), oil returns to $105–$110, and risk assets sell off sharply. BTC would likely test the $67K–$68K support.

In the short term, BTC appears the best positioned—on-chain accumulation is steady, the gold correlation is broken, and liquidations have largely played out. Gold and Silver remain the assets most exposed to the peace premium.