US–Iran 2-Week Ceasefire | BTC $71.8K | Oil −14% | Gold $4,838 | $427M Short Squeeze
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 Your daily briefing on the US–Iran ceasefire, the historic oil collapse, and the BTC short squeeze.
THE MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: 2-WEEK US–IRAN CEASEFIRE
What happened?
Trump announced on Truth Social minutes before the Tuesday 20:00 ET deadline: “I am suspending the bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. This is a bilateral ceasefire. Reason: We have already exceeded all our military objectives and have reached very advanced stages in a long-term peace agreement with Iran.”
- Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif’s mediation was critical: He requested a two-week extension from Trump and asked Iran to open the strait as a gesture of goodwill.
- Iran confirmed: “If attacks are stopped, we will end our defense operations.” Israel also joined the ceasefire.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the Strait of Hormuz: Iran put the strait into operation for tankers with the definition: “Subject to coordination with the Iranian Armed Forces and technical limitations.” Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas: “Hormuz has reopened, but the phrase ‘technical limitations’ remains ambiguous.”
How did the markets react?
- S&P 500 futures +2.52%, Nasdaq +3.2%. Asia: Kospi +5.8%, Nikkei +4.95%, Hang Seng +2.56%
- WTI crude oil -14% ($97), Brent -13.2% ($94.80). Oil prices, which had risen +47% during the war, fell sharply overnight; this weakens both inflationary pressure and the primary factor tying the Fed’s hands.
- Crypto: BTC $72,700, total $427M short liquidations — the largest squeeze since early March. The Fear & Greed index was at 8 on Sunday; the market has grown accustomed to this yoyo movement over the last five weeks, but this time the two-week window is clearer.
- Commodity rotation: Gold and silver rose, wheat collapsed. As Hormuz partially opened, fears regarding food shipments diminished; wheat saw the sharpest daily decline.
Is this ceasefire different?
Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods: “A softening in the Iran conflict was not a major surprise; the market has become much better at predicting Trump’s next move. The real question is whether this ‘two-week’ window will turn into a real solution or just a postponement as we know it.”
Monday’s news of a 45-day ceasefire lasted only 12 hours. Today’s news, however, is concrete: the Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed it, the strait has partially opened, and Israel has approved. Nevertheless, the April 22nd deadline is the next critical point.
3. MACRO FRAMEWORK
3.1 The Decline of Oil and Its Meaning for the Fed
WTI had increased by over 70% this year. The -14% drop in a single night indicates that the inflationary pressure accumulated during the war is beginning to dissolve. This brings the possibility of a rate cut in the second half of 2026 back to the table for the Fed; the process is being priced in rapidly.
- Friday’s CPI (March) may still come in high — March data covers the entirety of the war; the drop in oil will be reflected in April data. Therefore, if CPI exceeds expectations, there is no need for panic; the April data will be more decisive in a ceasefire environment.
- The average US gasoline price is still $4.12/gallon. The reflection at the pump is slow; relief on consumer prices may take several weeks.
3.2 Is Gold’s Paradox Solved?
During the war, gold fell contrary to expectations. Reason: oil → inflation → no rate cuts → pressure on non-yielding gold. Today, this cycle reversed: oil fell → inflation pressure decreased → Fed flexibility is being priced in → Gold surged to $4,838, breaking the $4,800 resistance. If the ceasefire becomes permanent and oil stays below $95, the $5,000 target is realistic.
3.3 Critical Data Today
- Delta Air Lines earnings report (pre-market): Will show the fuel costs and demand dynamics of air transport during the war period. The real “damage report” of the sector.
- Fed March meeting minutes: We will see how the Fed positioned itself internally regarding the stagflation dilemma. Written before the ceasefire, it will reflect the tone of the oil-inflation debate within that framework.
4.1 BTC: On the Edge of the Six-Week Band
BTC surged to $72,700 with the ceasefire news and tested the $73,000 upper band, which was never broken during the war, for the first time. This is a significant step in the pattern seen throughout the war: every ceasefire news liquidates opposing short positions; this time $245M in BTC shorts were cleared.
Critical difference today: There is official confirmation from Iran, Israel has approved, and Hormuz has partially opened. It is not a single-source report like Monday’s “retracted in 12 hours” news. Still, uncertainty remains regarding the period after April 22nd.
5.1 Oil: Historic Daily Decline
WTI -14% ($97), Brent -13.2% ($94.80). This erased a significant portion of the premium oil had accumulated during the war in a single night. WTI was around $65 before the war; at $97, it shows that normalization is still at the very beginning.
5.2 Gold and Silver: Reversing Dynamics
Gold $4,838 (+2.92%), silver $77.32 (+6.02%). These two assets, which paradoxically fell during the war, turned in the opposite direction today. Silver also has an industrial component: the opening of Hormuz revives global production expectations.
5.4 Copper: a Diverging Story
Copper recovered with a +2.58% gain. Two separate stories overlapped here: (1) improvement in the global growth outlook due to the ceasefire, (2) structural copper demand created by AI data center infrastructure (Anthropic’s multi-gigawatt deal with Google/Broadcom). This second story is independent of the ceasefire.
WEEKLY CALENDAR
| Date | Event / Data | Importance |
| Today, Apr 8 | Delta Air Lines Earnings (Pre-market) | Fuel costs during war + scale of demand |
| Today, Apr 8 | Fed March Meeting Minutes | Fed’s perspective on the stagflation scenario |
| Fri, Apr 10 | March CPI — 15:30 TSI | First monthly inflation data covering the whole war |
| Tue, Apr 22 | US–Iran Negotiation Deadline | Whether the 2-week ceasefire turns into a permanent deal |