Global Markets Under Siege: Oil Breaks $100 as Stagflation Risks Loom Amid Middle East Conflict
Monday, March 9, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.
OIL SURPASSES $100, WAR ENTERS ITS SECOND WEEK
As the Iran-USA-Israel conflict enters its second week, a historical threshold in the oil market has been breached: WTI has surpassed $100 per barrel. As US futures markets opened on Sunday evening, WTI surged to $109, while Brent rose 27% last week to move above $90. Since the beginning of the year, Nymex crude oil futures have increased by 86%.
Iraq issued a critical warning within this context: due to Iranian tanker threats in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 3 million barrels of daily production could be disrupted. This single statement sent oil prices skyrocketing from $95 to $113.7, reaching levels not seen since April 2022—just weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on several television programs Sunday, stating that passage through Hormuz must resume and noting that one large tanker passed through the strait “without any issues.” However, considering the normal traffic is 60-100 tankers per day, this is not a definitive solution.
Why is the US relatively shielded? A JP Morgan note outlines the most important macro framework for this week: the US imports its oil primarily from Canada and Mexico, with only 4% coming from Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the US is now the world’s largest net oil exporter. This structure indicates that Asian countries like China, India, and South Korea are the most exposed to Hormuz-related pressures. Nevertheless, the US is not entirely isolated; high oil prices reflect onto American consumers with a lag through global pricing dynamics.
STAGFLATION RISK
Last Friday’s non-farm payroll data came in below expectations: February non-farm employment fell by 92,000 (against an expectation of +60K). Simultaneously, oil is above $100. The coexistence of these two variables has brought stagflation fears back to the agenda: inflation is rising while growth is slowing.
| Date | Data | Importance / Expectation |
| Wednesday, March 11 | February US CPI (Consumer Price Index) | 🔴 Most Critical Data: Expectation Annual +2.5%, Core +1.4% |
| Friday, March 13 | PCE Index (Lagged January Data) | 🔴 Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge: Expectation 2.9%, Core 3.0% |
| Friday, March 13 | JOLTS January Data | Expectation: 6.68M Job Openings |
The oil spike has not yet fully reflected in inflation; February CPI will not show this, but it will be visible in March. PCE is already high with a 3.0% core expectation. These two data points reinforce the “Fed cannot cut rates” thesis. Warsh’s Senate confirmation process also maintains hawkish pressure.
3. STOCK MARKETS: ASIA MELTS, US RELATIVELY RESILIENT
Last week’s closing figures were heavy: Dow -3.0% (worst weekly decline since April 2025), S&P 500 -2.0% (worst week since October 2025), Nasdaq -1.2%. Year-to-date: Dow -1.2%, S&P 500 -1.5%, Nasdaq -3.7%.
The Asian side is much more heavily affected: Nikkei -10%, Nifty (India) -5%, Kospi (South Korea) -16%, as these countries are directly dependent on oil passing through Hormuz. As JP Morgan noted, markets are pricing risk correctly: the US is relatively isolated, while Asia is relatively exposed.
Company news this week is also significant: software giants like Oracle and Adobe will report results. The software sector showed a recovery last month (IGV +10%/month); will this momentum continue this week?
4. BITCOIN HOLDS AT $67,000
BTC is currently trading around $67,000. From the $64,000 level where the war began, it rose to $73,770 by Wednesday, then declined for four consecutive days. It dropped to $65,725 on Sunday evening with the rise in oil but recovered to the $67,000 zone.
Why did it recover so quickly from $64K, and why did it stop at $74K? Two forces are at play:
- Supportive: US relative energy independence → Wall Street relatively resilient → BTC moving in tandem with Wall Street. Additionally, BTC had already dropped to $60,000 before the war—this decline cleared out short-term sellers in advance, ending the squeeze that started from the technically oversold zone. Institutional access (spot ETFs) increasingly positions BTC as a US risk asset.
- Pressuring: A NYDIG research piece highlighted an important nuance this week—the parallel movement of BTC and software stocks is not a “structural convergence,” but rather a result of both being exposed to the same macro regime (long-term, liquidity-sensitive risk assets). Only 25% of BTC’s price action can be explained by stock correlation; 75% is still shaped by independent dynamics. This is actually a positive finding: BTC is not merely a tech proxy.
However, the most important issue right now is that BTC is not acting like gold. Gold ended last week around $5,166, with safe-haven buying continuing amid the war. BTC, meanwhile, is at $67K. This divergence shows that the “digital gold” narrative is not working at the moment. Investors are positioning BTC on the risk curve.
BTC Scenario Analysis for This Week:
- If CPI comes in above expectations (>2.7%) on Wednesday: Bond yields rise → Pressure on BTC below $65K.
- If CPI remains around expectations: Current $67K consolidation continues.
- If Oil stays above $110 + Hormuz news worsens: The $65K scenario seen Sunday evening could repeat.
- If concrete news of normalization in Hormuz arrives: BTC may retest the $70K level.
THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
The three variables that will affect the market most, in order:
- Is the oil movement above $110 permanent?
- Will Wednesday’s US CPI data confirm stagflation fears?
- BTC $65K support; there was a drop Sunday evening, but it is recovering. Holding this level is critical.
The US’s relative energy independence acts as a buffer for Wall Street and, consequently, BTC. However, if oil remains at $110+ and CPI/PCE data surprises to the upside, this buffer will erode.