Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Oil Surges to $105 as Markets Price in Military Risks and AI Sector Shifts
Friday, April 24, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, energy volatility, and the deepening tech sector divergence.
1. Geopolitical Tensions and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Markets are closing the week as hopes for peace in the Middle East have completely evaporated. Last night, Trump told reporters that he was in “no rush” for a deal with Tehran, stating that the Iranian leadership is “in turmoil” and that he would “finish the matter militarily” if necessary. These statements indicate that the U.S. side has effectively put diplomatic channels on standby and is clearly keeping the direct military option on the table.
The Iranian front continued to fuel tensions with concrete field footage. Tehran released a video of commandos boarding a giant cargo ship via speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz. With this move, Iran both declared its increasing control over the strait to the international community and signaled its lack of intention to return to the negotiating table. A parallel escalation signal came from Israel; Defense Minister Katz announced that his country is ready to escalate military operations against Iran.
Trump also announced that he has ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This implies that maritime traffic is effectively under military surveillance, and the margin for error has narrowed dramatically. With Brent crude closing above $105 with a weekly gain of approximately 17%, it is evident that markets have begun pricing in the “long-term closure of the strait” scenario.
2. Software-Semiconductor Decoupling and Big Tech Efficiency
Following a series of record-high closes, U.S. equity indices retreated yesterday due to a sharp combination of energy and geopolitical factors. The Nasdaq led the losses with a 0.9% drop; the S&P 500 fell by 0.4%, and the Dow Jones slid approximately 180 points (0.4%). The most striking sector story occurred in software: ServiceNow plummeted 18% after lowering its operating margin expectations, while IBM faced a sharp 8.3% sell-off after failing to change its revenue guidance. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF saw its largest daily loss since April 2025. Investors are now seriously pricing in the question of “where AI will hit SaaS.”
In contrast, the picture in the semiconductor sector is diametrically opposed: the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose for the 17th consecutive day. According to Dow Jones Market Data, this is the longest uninterrupted winning streak since 1994. The eight-day correlation between chip and software stocks ended yesterday following ServiceNow; this decoupling indicates that the AI theme is no longer a homogeneous block but has entered a phase of winner-loser divergence.
There were two more significant news items regarding Big Tech. Meta announced that it would lay off approximately 10% of its workforce—8,000 people—and close 6,000 open positions, effective May 20th. The stock closed the day down 2.3%. This “efficiency” move was interpreted as a cost-structure operation intended to finance the massive $115-135 billion AI investment announced for 2026. Microsoft closed 4% lower after announcing it would offer voluntary severance packages to approximately 7% of its workforce. Tesla’s capital expenditure guidance, reaching $25 billion in 2026, created an aggressive divergence labeled as “capexmaxxing,” and the stock closed the day with an additional 3.6% loss.
The bond and currency markets shifted toward a tightening trend. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 2% on a weekly basis, and the dollar strengthened by 0.8% for the week. Weekly jobless claims came in above expectations, but the market sidelined this data under the shadow of oil-driven inflation concerns. The combination of high oil, high bond yields, and a strong dollar is weighing on non-yielding assets like gold; gold is preparing to end the week with a loss of approximately 3.5%, ending a four-week winning streak.
3. DeFi Systemic Risks and Liquidity Recovery Efforts
The DeFi world recently took the biggest hit of the year. An attacker exploited a vulnerability in KelpDAO’s LayerZero integration to mint 116,500 unbacked rsETH. By depositing approximately 90,000 of these as collateral on Aave, the attacker borrowed $190 million worth of ETH and other assets across Ethereum and Arbitrum. The total magnitude of the incident was recorded at $292 million, making it the largest crypto theft of the year. A portion of Aave’s collateral pool instantly became “bad debt,” leading depositors to withdraw and causing the protocol’s total value locked (TVL) to evaporate by $10 billion in a short time.
By this morning, the sector began to recover around a coordinated rescue effort called “DeFi United.” The Lido Labs Foundation, from the Lido Finance ecosystem, proposed transferring 2,500 stETH (worth approximately $5.7 million) to a special recovery vehicle to help close the rsETH gap. EtherFi pledged 5,000 ETH, and Aave founder Stani Kulechov personally announced a 5,000 ETH commitment. The Arbitrum security council had frozen approximately 30,766 ETH ($71 million) linked to the attack earlier this week; however, since most of the remaining funds were bridged to Bitcoin via Thorchain and dispersed, the chances of recovery are low. Current efforts are focused on recapitalizing rsETH to protect the system from cascading liquidations rather than simple recovery.
On the Bitcoin side, the price held at 77,900; the break of the daily trend line and the 100-day EMA (75,486) holding firm continue to be improving factors for the technical outlook. Ethereum, however, retreated to 2,313, slipping below the 100-day EMA (2,353), while a notable bearish divergence formed on the indicators. For Solana, the debate revolves around whether the 88.46 resistance will be breached to open the 90-96 range or if a rejection will lead back to the 80-78.80 support zone; some analysts are even considering an “extended macro bottom” scenario below $100.
4. Energy Dominance and Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Oil has become the center of gravity for the entire commodity landscape. Brent rose 3.1% yesterday to $105.07, and WTI rose 3.1% to $95.85; for Brent, this represents a weekly gain of 17% and marks a phase where triple-digit closes are being chained for the first time this year. Every day the strait remains closed adds to transportation and production costs and postpones rate cut expectations. In this environment, gold is bracing for a 3.5% weekly decline amid “higher-for-longer” rate fears and a strong dollar; spot gold fell to $4,682, technically squeezed into the lower section of the band between the 20-day moving average (4,746) and the 50-day average (4,772). The short-term picture is fragile enough to trigger a clear sell signal toward the 4,569 support (below EMA100).
Copper remains one of the rare assets where geopolitical and structural factors align. According to Mysteel’s daily tracking, Chinese refined copper spot stocks continued to fall this week; although imports and smelter inflows into Shanghai warehouses have accelerated, supply is tight in Guangdong. Expectations prevail that downstream restocking will kick in before the May 1-5 Chinese Labor Day holiday, causing spot stocks to continue declining. Added to this physical picture is China’s decision to halt sulfuric acid exports starting in May and the risk to sulfur supply from Hormuz; 15-20% of global primary copper production is at risk of being directly affected by this chemical bottleneck. Copper spot remains above all short and medium-term EMAs at 6.07; the 6.14 horizontal resistance and the January peak of 6.60 remain in focus.
The upward momentum in wheat continues. CBOT futures are at 617’4, moving clearly above the 20/50/100/200-day averages. The shipping premium from Hormuz to the Black Sea and the renewed insurance burden on the Ukraine-Russia corridor remain structural elements being priced in.
5. Critical Calendar of the Week
| Date | Event | Importance |
| April 24, Friday | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), Durable Goods Orders; Middle East and Oil monitoring | High |
| April 25-26 (Weekend) | Middle East diplomacy, potential Gulf mediation initiatives, Iranian domestic political developments | Very High |
| April 27, Monday | Mag 7 earnings season kickoff, positioning ahead of Alphabet and Microsoft | High |
| April 29, Wednesday | Meta Q1 Earnings (First figures after layoffs) | Very High |
| April 30, Thursday | Apple and Amazon Q1 Earnings | Very High |
| May 1, Friday | US Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing; Start of China May 1st Holiday | Very High |