Market Analysis: Geopolitical Turmoil, CPI Outlook, and Central Bank Decisions

11 March 2026 | ICRYPEX | Daily Newsletter

Wednesday, March 11, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

Yesterday, markets experienced complete chaos:

  • The day opened with news of Exxon (US oil giant) evacuating non-essential personnel from the Middle East and reports of Iran planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • This was followed by a later-deleted post from US Energy Secretary Wright regarding a tanker passage.
  • Then a message from Trump suggesting the war would “end soon.”

After a highly volatile session driven by these mixed signals, markets ended the day nearly flat: Dow -0.07%, S&P -0.21%, Nasdaq +0.01%. Brent crude, however, plummeted 11.3% in a single session to $87.80 (the largest daily drop since March 2022). Despite this, Brent remains +44% higher year-on-year.

Energy stocks decoupled from oil: Since the start of the conflict, the five major oil companies (Exxon, Chevron, Total Energies, BP, Shell) have gained an average of only 1%. This is an unexpected divergence given oil’s 44% rise. The reasons? These companies are directly exposed to supply disruptions caused by the war; investors are avoiding a potential price crash following a ceasefire; and energy stocks had already priced in the move prior to the conflict.

1. CRITICAL DATA OF THE DAY: US CPI (INFLATION)

The February CPI data is released today. Expectations: Monthly +0.3% (prev. +0.2%), Annual 2.5% (prev. 2.4%), and Core Annual 2.5%. While rising food and energy prices, along with tariff transitions, push figures higher, softening vehicle prices and shelter inflation may provide a partial balance. This data will likely support the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady at the March meeting.

The real concern lies with the March data, which will fully reflect the impact of the Iran conflict. Gasoline prices have surged more than 20% compared to a month ago, which will drive up energy and transportation costs in the coming months. According to Charles Schwab’s chief strategist: “This is a much larger concern for the Fed than immediate oil-driven inflation,” as it risks unanchoring long-term inflation expectations.

  • Below Expectations: BTC and altcoins rise, gold may face pressure, oil remains flat.
  • Above Expectations: BTC sell-off, gold and silver strengthen (inflation hedge), oil remains mixed.

2. BTC: FOMO IS BACK, BUT FEAR STILL LINGERS

After reaching $71,612, BTC settled around $69,700 this morning. News of the IEA (International Energy Agency) proposing the largest crude oil reserve release in history pushed Brent below $90, reviving risk appetite.

Technically, $69,500 – $70,000 acts as support, while $73,000 is the critical resistance where last week’s peak and the 50-day EMA converge. Consecutive higher lows since late February provide the first structural signal of growing buyer confidence. Why is $70K so significant? As one analyst put it: “Reclaiming $70,000 publicly—on social media feeds and price alerts—re-triggers the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).”

Conversely, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 15 (“Extreme Fear”). Historically, this could be a positive contrarian sign: five months of continuous decline (from the $126,000 ATH) has pushed BTC into technically oversold territory. Institutional backing remains solid, with $568M in net ETF inflows this week and a BTC-S&P 500 correlation of 0.78. The real question: Will the macro tailwinds shift?

3. THE WEEK AHEAD: 7 CENTRAL BANK RATE DECISIONS

Ahead of the March 17-18 Fed meeting, an extremely busy week awaits the markets:

  • March 17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
  • March 18: Bank of Canada + US Federal Reserve (Fed)
  • March 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ) + Swiss National Bank (SNB) + European Central Bank (ECB)

Until recently, markets expected these banks to continue their rate-cutting cycles, bolstered by expectations that AI would transform the labor market and permanently lower inflation. The Iran conflict has upended this narrative.

The Fed is likely in “watch and assess” mode. Fed watcher Ethan Harris noted: “Oil shocks simultaneously slow growth and increase inflation. The Fed wants to understand which problem is greater first; moreover, they wouldn’t want to change rates for a temporary shock only to reverse it immediately.”

The Bank of Japan is also critical: Japan imports the vast majority of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the conflict exerts direct pressure on every corner of its economy.

Two Scenarios:

  • Scenario A (Hawkish): A message of “standing firm against the inflation threat” → Sharp sell-off for BTC and all risk assets, USD strengthens, pressure on COFX/CHVX/XOMX.
  • Scenario B (Neutral / Data-Dependent): A “monitoring developments” tone → Risk appetite increases, BTC tests the $73K resistance, NVDX/TSMX rise.