Macro Framework: The 18-Hour Ceasefire Rally and the Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

Tuesday, March 24, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

Yesterday (March 23), markets experienced their best day in weeks. After Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday morning that the US and Iran had made significant progress toward a resolution, the S&P 500 closed +1.15% and the Nasdaq +1.38%. Both marked their best daily performances since February 6.

However, in the following hours, Iran’s deputy speaker of parliament denied that talks were taking place and stated there were no plans to open the Strait of Hormuz. As S&P 500 futures fell -0.5% and European stocks headed for a -0.8% opening, Brent crude rose 4% to reach $104. The Dollar strengthened by 0.3%, while Gold dropped another 1.5%.

But today, the picture has completely changed. The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia has granted the US military permission to use the Prince Sultan Air Base—Riyadh has made a U-turn from its stance of not allowing bases to be used against Iran. The UAE has taken similar steps. The direct participation of Gulf Arab states in the coalition transforms the conflict from a US-Israel operation into a broad regional coalition war.

The market message is clear: Every ceasefire signal creates an instant rally, and every escalation erases it immediately. The VIX is still up 30% since the start of the war. Oil will not return to pre-war levels until the full reopening of Hormuz.

2. SAUDI ARABIA AND THE UAE — THE RULES OF THE GAME ARE CHANGING

This development is crucial. The conflict, which had been unfolding as a US-Israel operation from the start, is now turning into a regional coalition with the active participation of Gulf Arab states. This implies two things:

First, escalation risk: Iran may target Arab states positioned across the Gulf. This puts both Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure at risk, increasing the upside risk for Brent. Second, oil uncertainty: Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter. If the energy infrastructure of both sides is at risk, the supply shock could deepen further. Macquarie Group energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi’s scenario: If Hormuz remains closed until the end of April, Brent could hit $150, and refinery product prices could be five times pre-war levels.

Oil and energy ETFs (COFX, CHVX, XOMX) continue to be the only “green” areas in this environment. Gold continues to see selling pressure during every escalation; this should be interpreted as a liquidity crisis.

3. BTC — RELATIVE RESILIENCE PERSISTS

BTC rose from yesterday’s $67,600 bottom to $70,352 this morning, a 3.1% increase. ETH, SOL, DOGE, and XRP gained in the 2-4% range. However, the weekly picture remains negative—BTC is down -6% weekly, with altcoins looking even weaker.

It is impossible to ignore BTC’s relative resilience in this market: while everything else is being sold, BTC is holding the $68,000-$70,000 range. Gold has dropped -18% from its recent peak, while BTC is only down -6%. This divergence is noteworthy.

Wintermute OTC trader’s two scenarios:

• Ceasefire scenario: Oil stabilizes, traffic in Hormuz normalizes, inflation concerns ease, and rate cut expectations return. BTC could retest the $74,000-$76,000 band.
• Escalation scenario: If talks fail, oil rises again, inflation risks solidify, and BTC retreats toward $65,000.

Critical levels: $68,000 is immediate support. $65,800 is the second support line. $71,500 is the first reliable recovery signal on the upside.

ETF inflows reached a net $1.43 billion this month—institutional infrastructure remains strong. This could signal “dip buying,” but the timing remains uncertain as long as the Iran situation is unresolved.

4. BOND MARKET — WHERE THE STRUCTURE CHANGES

The real macro shift is happening in the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.38%, its highest since July 2025. The 2-year yield has risen 53 basis points since the start of the war to 3.90%. German and UK 10-year bond yields have reached their highest levels in a decade.

The most striking detail: The 2-year US Treasury yield is now 26 basis points above the effective federal funds rate—the first positive gap of this magnitude since early 2023. At that time, the Fed was still hiking rates. The market has now raised the probability of a rate hike by October 2026 to 40%. A month ago, the market was pricing in two rate cuts for this year.

If rate hike expectations materialize, it means much stronger pressure on BTC and risk assets. The Dollar would continue to strengthen; Gold would theoretically see support, but its correlation with the Dollar persists.

5. GOLD — THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK IN HISTORY

Gold has lost record value since the start of the war. Experiencing the longest daily losing streak in history, it has lost 18% of its value from its last peak. For a safe-haven asset to see such sharp selling in a war environment is historically unprecedented.

The strongest explanation is forced selling: Funds are forced to sell their most liquid assets to meet margin calls on other positions. Gold, with its accumulated gains following previous price increases, is ideal for this purpose. The second explanation: Systematic buying by China and other central banks has ended.

The long-term structure for Gold has not broken. The EMA 50 region is critical support. If Hormuz is resolved and the Dollar weakens, Gold could be among the fastest-recovering assets.

WEEKLY CALENDAR

Date	Event
Today, March 24	ADP Employment, PMI (March)
Wednesday, March 25	Import Price Index
Thursday, March 26	Weekly Unemployment Claims
Friday, March 27	Michigan Consumer Sentiment — Will measure the Iran impact
Watch this week	Trump’s 5-day ceasefire ends Saturday; what is Iran’s response?
Watch this week	The market impact of Saudi Arabia and the UAE joining the coalition