Macro Outlook 2026: CPI and the Iran-Energy Crisis
Wednesday, May 13, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.
Executive Summary
April US CPI data came in at 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations (3.7%); behind this figure, which surprised markets, lies the ongoing energy price pressure since the start of the Iran war. Following the CPI announcement, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, with semiconductor stocks experiencing the sharpest declines. The five-year inflation break-even rate rose to its highest level since October 2022, as the market began pricing in a scenario where the Fed maintains restrictive policy for longer or potentially hikes rates again.
The Trump-Xi summit begins today in Beijing. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was included in the delegation in a last-minute decision; it was learned that Trump personally called and invited him. Huang boarded Air Force One from Alaska. The summit agenda includes Iran, trade, and energy dossiers. For Chinese exporters, concerns regarding Iran have now surpassed tariff pressures; disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are clogging critical shipping corridors and weakening global demand for Chinese goods.
Monetary Policy & Geopolitics
Fed and Inflation
Kevin Warsh was confirmed to the Fed Board of Governors with a 51-45 vote; he is expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair in a separate vote later this week. Jerome Powell’s eight-year term ends this Friday; however, Powell plans to remain on the board until the investigation into the renovation of the Fed headquarters building is concluded. Warsh’s previous investments in crypto and blockchain companies are noteworthy; he committed to divesting from most of them. It is assessed that under Warsh’s leadership, the Fed may adopt a more constructive stance regarding stablecoin regulation and bank crypto custody rules.
Iran and Energy
Trump described the ceasefire on May 11 as “incredibly weak and on life support,” rejecting Tehran’s counter-offer as “unacceptable.” Defense Secretary Hegseth emphasized that there is no need for Congressional approval despite the expiration of the 60-day federal war authority for a renewed strike. According to US intelligence assessments, Iran has regained access to 30 out of its 33 positions in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining approximately 70% of its pre-war launcher and missile capacity. This situation keeps the geopolitical risk premium on energy markets alive.
WTI futures fell approximately 1.5% in today’s session to the $101 range; Brent is trading around $106. The elevated level of oil prices continues to be the primary fuel for inflation. Japan’s 20-year bond yield reached its highest level since 1997; rising energy prices are increasing global inflationary pressures. The UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 5.11%, as Prime Minister Starmer struggles to maintain leadership following the resignations of four ministers.
Global Markets
The picture was mixed during the Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.77%, South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 2.36%, while Australia’s ASX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng saw slight declines. China’s CSI 300 remained flat. Ahead of the European open, futures indicate gains of 0.6% for the FTSE, 0.5% for the DAX, and 0.6% for the CAC 40. The US Dollar Index strengthened marginally; movements in the FX market continue to focus on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Michael Burry’s warnings regarding the overvaluation of AI and technology continue to act as an additional pressure point on the markets.
Digital Assets Insights
Bitcoin dropped to $79,879 immediately after the CPI surprise but recovered to $81,200 within hours accompanied by aggressive dip buying. The current price is hovering around the $81,000 range; the major resistance zone below $82,000 has remained unbroken for six days. This region hosts the downward-sloping 200-day moving average. The 67-day negative funding streak maintains its status as a 10-year record in BTC history.
CoinShares reported that global crypto fund inflows reached $858 million last week. BTC products attracted $706 million, ETH products $77 million, SOL products $48 million, and XRP products $40 million. The most striking data was the $14 million outflow from BTC short positions—the largest weekly short liquidation of 2026. While the macro outlook remains turbulent, the dissolving of bearish bets is noteworthy.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since March 2023. Analysts interpret this signal as a sign of a regime change; however, it is too early for confirmation without a strong close above $82,000 and sustainable demand. Arthur Hayes believes the $60,000 bottom is behind us, pointing to $90,000 as the level where the rally is triggered. The CLARITY Act consensus on stablecoin yield regulation will enter the Senate Banking Committee’s agenda; this development has begun to appear in fund flow data.
The outlook for Ethereum is relatively more fragile: ETH is showing the weakest performance among major coins with a -3.2% change on a 7-day basis. The support level at $2,265 is holding; however, remaining below the EMA50 limits the sustainability of the recovery. The Ethereum Foundation’s “Clear Signing” standard aims to prevent users from approving malicious transactions; blind signing, which is the main channel for Bybit-style hacks, will be replaced by human-readable descriptions. BNB stood out with a 2.5% gain in 24 hours, while DOGE gained 1.3%. SOL declined to $95.52; XRP is holding at the $1.45 level.
Hard Assets & Energy
Precious Metals
CPI exceeding expectations provides structural support for gold and silver. ING maintains its year-end target of $5,000 for gold. The Alaska Senate passed the HB 1 bill, which recognizes gold and silver as legal tender and exempts these transactions from local sales tax. Silver surpassed its TP2 target of $85 in the previous session, reaching $87.20 during the day; high inflation and geopolitical risks are among the factors sustaining support.
Copper
The Peruvian government declared an emergency decree on May 11 to prevent a possible national energy crisis; the measure will remain in effect until December 31, 2026. This move by Peru, one of the world’s major copper producers, deepened concerns over supply disruptions and pushed prices to $6.529 during the day. According to Mysteel, significant price increases were experienced in futures and spot markets on May 12, while China’s refined copper transactions slowed down due to rising prices. Citi emphasized that all growth in copper demand since 2022 has come from energy transition and AI data centers, highlighting that it is time to chase the move. Although refined stocks are high, disruptions on the raw material side continue to support prices in the short term.
Oil
WTI fell approximately 1.5% in today’s session to the $101 range; Brent is around $106. On the oil front, according to Economies.com analysis, Brent’s stay above the EMA50 and the preservation of the supportive trend keep the short-term outlook positive. The lack of resolution regarding the Iran tension in the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep pressure on energy supply alive.
Critical Calendar of the Week
| Date | Day | Development |
| May 13 | Wednesday | US April PPI Data | Trump-Xi Summit Day 1 — Beijing |
| May 14 | Thursday | US April Retail Sales | Trump-Xi Summit Day 2 — Beijing |
| May 15 | Friday | Last day of Trump-Xi Summit — possible statement/agreement |