Global Market Report: NFP Shock Slows Fed, AI Profit-Taking Sparks Defensive Rotation
Friday, July 3, 2026 | Daily briefing on the June NFP shock, Dow’s record close, Samsung’s AI catalyst in Asia, and crypto’s two-week high.
Main Agenda
NFP Surprise: 57,000 — Half of Expectations: The June non-farm payrolls report came in at 57,000, well below the market expectation of 110,000. Additionally, May’s data was revised downward by -43,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, slightly below the expectation of 4.3%. The market’s takeaway: a cooling labor market reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike. The probability of a September hike dropped to 55% from 64.1% prior to the report, with some calculations showing the immediate hike probability plunging as low as 18%. However, this does not mean inflation fears are over; it simply relieves the short-term pressure on the Fed.
Dow 52,900 — Record High, But Nasdaq in the Red: Weak employment data carried the Dow up +1.14% to 52,900.07, marking a new record close. The Dow has risen for four consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since October 2024. However, on the same day, the Nasdaq fell -0.80% and the S&P 500 closed flat. The reason for this divergence was the second day of a semiconductor sell-off: the SOX index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) fell -5.4%, SanDisk dropped -14.1%, Teradyne fell -13.6%, and KLA slid -11.5%. Conversely, 8 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed the day in positive territory, with Healthcare being the best performer at +2.7% and Information Technology the worst at -1.5%. Profit-taking is hitting the chip index, which has surged 78% since the beginning of the year, and the rotation theme is gaining strength as capital flows out of AI and into defensive sectors. Nevertheless, the weekly picture remains strong: Dow +2%, S&P 500 +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%.
Asia Reversed on Friday, Anthropic-Samsung Effect: Following a two-day chip sell-off, Asian markets rebounded sharply on Friday. The KOSPI closed up +4.65% (touching +5.44% intraday), staging a powerful comeback after flirting with a technical bear market. The Nikkei gained +1.36%, the Hang Seng rose +1.57%, and the ASX advanced +1.39%. The symbolic story behind this reversal: Samsung Electronics jumped +6.8% following news that AI firm Anthropic is in talks with Samsung to produce custom AI chips. This news provided a morale boost to the sector by reminding investors that the AI spending cycle is not slowing down. Solid expansion shown across China, Japan, Australia, and Singapore PMI data also carried the MSCI World Index to a weekly gain of +1.7%, marking its best week since early May.
Trump CNBC Interview: Family Business and Iran: In an exclusive interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen, Trump defended his children’s business dealings: “I tell my kids to stay away, but they have a life too; they were doing business long before I ever thought about the presidency.” His 2025 financial disclosures reveal over $580 million in crypto-linked revenue, with approximately $515 million coming from World Liberty Financial token sales. Trump stated that “there is nothing illegal or wrong” and emphasized that the president and vice president are exempt from conflict-of-interest rules. On Iran, he displayed remarkable optimism: “Iran has agreed to almost everything we need.” He pointed to oil trading around $68 as proof of market stability and warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz “could trigger a depression.” According to Kpler data, the Saudis have shipped 34 million barrels through Hormuz since the ceasefire agreement.
Russia-Ukraine Escalate Again: Following a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, Poland scrambled its fighter jets and Finland restricted its airspace. Meanwhile, Kyiv increased its long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory; the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense explained this as a strategy to “deprive the enemy of war resources.” While easing continues in the Middle East, this escalation on the European front widens the gap between the two geopolitical risk axes.
Zuckerberg’s Admission, AI Agents Slower Than Expected: According to an internal meeting recording obtained by Reuters, Zuckerberg admitted that the development of AI agents is progressing slower than he expected. It is striking that he openly voiced the shortcomings of Meta’s comprehensive restructuring, yet the market ignored this news, and the Friday Asian rally continued. Meta shares dropped -4.90% to $582.90 on Thursday, giving back more than half of Tuesday’s +8.81% gains triggered by cloud news.
Macro Framework
Fed: Expectations Soften After Non-Farm Payrolls Data
The probability of a September hike, which stood at 64.1% before the NFP, dropped to 55% after the report. This marks the first meaningful easing in the “hawkish Fed” narrative that has pressured markets for weeks. When combined with Warsh’s message in Sintra that “inflation risks have receded,” the picture changes: tightening fears are easing, but there are no expectations of a cut either, creating an interim waiting zone. The FOMC June meeting minutes, to be released next Wednesday, will reveal the depth of the hike debate within the committee. Next week’s data calendar is light: ISM Services PMI on Monday, and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.
Yen at 161.13: Intervention Expectations Corrected the Price Itself
USD/JPY fell to 161.13 today, down roughly 170 pips from Wednesday’s peak of 162.84. The broad dollar sell-off triggered by the weak NFP relieved the pressure of new intervention expectations without requiring Tokyo to step in. Liquidity is thin today due to the US holiday; the Reuters report suggesting that Japan has switched to an “ambush tactic” remains valid, as officials aim to catch speculators off guard rather than signaling interventions. On the technical chart, USD/JPY is still in a BULL alignment and stands 2.78% above the EMA200; there is no evidence of structural weakening yet. EUR/USD rose to 1.1456, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3369, showing broad-based dollar weakness.
Europe and Asia Data
Services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK are being announced today; France is also releasing its May industrial production data. The PMI set in Asia laid the foundation for Friday’s rally: data from China, Japan (where services activity returned to growth), Australia, and Singapore confirmed the robustness of regional expansion. India is emerging as a separate theme: as US municipalities resist data center projects, Big Tech has turned its focus to India, with Microsoft and Alphabet each investing over $15 billion; Meta, Amazon, and OpenAI are also adding capacity. Government policies offering cheap land, tax incentives, and electricity/water discounts are accelerating this flow, while local objections to resource sharing remain ineffective against projects moving forward without public announcements.
Crypto
BTC at $61,657: Short Squeeze and a Two-Week High
Bitcoin surged to $62,137 during Thursday’s Wall Street opening, marking a new July high; it is currently hovering around $61,657. With a weekly gain of +2.59%, this is the first genuinely strong week since mid-June. The mechanical driver behind the move was a short squeeze: bearish traders lost $281 million in the last 24 hours (nearly double the longs), with total liquidations in the $440-450 million band. The risk pointed out by the Kobeissi Letter: the downward revision of May’s data by -43,000 confirms the “volatility” of the labor market. Whether the squeeze will turn into sustained demand remains an open question; spot BTC ETFs are still carrying the impact of record monthly outflows, and the market is entering Q3 with thin liquidity.
Technical improvement is evident. The RSI rose to 44.22 (up from 32 two days ago), the MACD histogram is strongly positive at +324.81, and the OBV trend turned UP for the first time in weeks. Critical thresholds: $61,100-61,300 acts as a pullback support zone, while $62,100-62,700 is the main confirmation gate. Staying above this band opens up $63,300-63,900; losing $60,500-60.900 would indicate that the recovery has failed. The formation of a positive divergence on the daily RSI provides additional support. However, the 70:30 downward skew in the liquidation ratio shows that there is still plenty of liquidity to be gathered below.
ETH and SOL: Stars of the Week
ETH stands at $1,715, up +5.44% daily and +8.63% weekly. On the squeeze day, ETH was the asset where bears lost the most ($157 million vs. BTC’s $103 million). This momentum, coming on the heels of the Ethereum Institutional launch, coincides with the reconstruction of the institutional narrative.
SOL stands at $81.02, up +12.68% weekly, making it the strongest among the majors. On-chain metrics are also robust: transaction count, throughput, and ecosystem revenue (driven by memecoin, airdrop, and DeFi utilization) are hitting new peaks; ETF expectations are also positive. A technical counter-view is also on the table: one analysis argues that SOL is within a Wyckoff accumulation schematic and that this recovery could end soon, followed by a retest toward $65 or even $55, with the 88.6% long liquidation skew serving as the main backbone of this scenario. XRP is at $1.099 (+3.71% daily), ADA is +6.15%, and DOGE is +3.39%. In the overall picture, OBV trends are broadly turning UP.
BTC Dominance at 58.55%, Is the Altseason Gate Opening?
Bitcoin dominance is testing the channel floor (58%) that has held since August 2025. After facing a sharp rejection from the 61% resistance in May, the metric also broke below its September 2025 ascending trendline in June, retesting this line as resistance last week before turning back down—a third bearish signal. A confirmed breakdown targets 55.66% (a strong zone coinciding with the weekly 0.382 Fibonacci support); many traders are watching this level as the trigger for a broad altcoin rotation. Context matters: the Fear and Greed Index is at 19, remaining in the Extreme Fear zone for a month (it touched 11 on July 1); historically, prolonged readings below 20 have aligned with bottoming structures. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index is neutral at 45. There has been no true altseason since late 2022; some experts argue that rotation cannot begin before global liquidity expands.
Commodity Environment
Gold at $4,190 — First Weekly Gain in Five Weeks
Spot gold rose for the third consecutive day as weak employment data broke rate hike expectations, reaching $4,190 (+1.88% daily, +2.73% weekly). It is heading for its first positive week in five weeks. State Street Investment Management maintained its constructive view: the $5,000 target for early 2027 remains valid; under a 70% base-case scenario, a band of $4,750-5,500 is projected over the next 6–9 months, with structural support solid at $3,750-4,000. The technical picture is also improving: OBV is UP, the MACD histogram turned positive (+12.11), and the distance to the EMA200 narrowed to -3.23%. Silver stands at $62.96, up +3.89% daily and +6.31% weekly, recovering even faster than gold.
Oil: Trump Optimism and Saudi Flow
WTI is at $69.08 (+0.54%) and Brent is at $72.31 (+0.71%), both benchmarks slightly up on Friday. Trump’s statement that “Iran has agreed to almost everything” and the Saudis shipping 34 million barrels through Hormuz since the ceasefire reinforce the supply normalization narrative. The RSI is in oversold territory for both (29-30), signaling exhaustion in downward momentum. Trading volume will remain thin today due to the US holiday.
Equity Front
The Two Faces of Rotation
Thursday’s performance clearly demonstrated the rotation: while the Dow broke records by gaining +594 points, the SOX fell -5.4%; Healthcare became the best sector of the day at +2.7%, while Information Technology was the worst at -1.5%. Ned Davis’s “healthy rotation” framework is being validated: participation across the index is broadening (advance/decline ratio on the NYSE is 1.42:1, with 318 new highs vs. 111 new lows), only the leadership is changing.
Apple +4.84%: News of Five New iPhones: AAPL rose +4.84% to $308.63 on Thursday, single-handedly carrying the three main indices. The catalyst was a Nikkei Asia report stating that Apple plans five new iPhone models in 2027. The weekly picture is strong at +12.17%, sitting just 2.76% away from its 52-week high.
Tesla -7.49%: Strong Deliveries, Sell the News: Tesla’s Q2 deliveries beat expectations and European sales improved, but the stock tumbled -7.49% to $393.45. A classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news,” as the stock had surged sharply during the week prior to the report (it remains +4.89% weekly). It dipped just below its EMA200 (-0.94%).
Chip Grid: Losses and Initial Signs of Recovery: NVDA showed relative resilience at $194.83 (-1.39%), holding 3% above its EMA200. AMD at $517.82 (-4.26%) and ASML at $1,769 (-4.00%) continued their declines; TSM fell to $434.16 (-2.27%). However, the reversal in Friday’s Asian session (Samsung +6.8% on Anthropic chip news, KOSPI +%4.65) creates hope for Monday’s US opening. Note: Bending Spoons (owner of Vimeo) fell -11.3% a day after surging +40% in its Nasdaq debut, showing that IPO appetite remains highly volatile.
Weekly Calendar
| Date | Day | Development |
| July 3 | Friday (Today) | US markets closed for Independence Day holiday — thin liquidity, yen intervention window |
| July 3 | Friday (Today) | Services PMI data for France, Germany, Eurozone, and UK |
| July 6 | Monday | ISM Services PMI; SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 (post-market close) |
| July 8 | Wednesday | FOMC June meeting minutes are released |
| July 9 | Thursday | Existing home sales; PepsiCo Q2 results |
| July 10 | Friday | Delta Air Lines Q2 results |
| July 14 | Tuesday | Q2 earnings season officially begins with major banks |