Global Market Brief: In-Line CPI Eases Rate Fears as Hormuz Stalemate Weighs on Oil

Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Daily briefing on CPI in-line print, Hormuz standoff, KOSPI’s bull run, and tech’s selective sell-off.

Daily Summary CPI came in exactly in line with expectations, eliminating a tail risk but failing to act as a catalyst. In July, headline inflation rose 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually; the core measure, excluding food and energy, slowed to 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. The probability of a rate hike in September fell to 38-40% from 46% prior to the data. In three instances over the last nine releases where inflation came in below expectations, bitcoin gained an average of 3.25%; a 4.24% rally followed the downside surprise on July 14. This time, there was no surprise, and consequently, no movement. Bitcoin declined to $63,500, down 2% on the week. Following the data, it rose just 0.5% before giving back the gains. Gold gained 1.3%, ether rose 1%, and S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2%. The next key tests are Jackson Hole at the end of this month, the September 4 employment report, and the September 11 CPI data. The KOSPI entered a technical bull market, rising 22-23% from its July low. The index reached this level within ten days of its July 30 low, with Samsung up 4-5.7% and SK Hynix up 7%. The Korean stock market is now synonymous with the AI hardware trade, and any development that challenges this narrative (weak capex outlook, fears of Fed tightening) will trigger a pull-back. Oil broke its six-day winning streak as demand forecasts were revised downward. Brent declined to $88; the IEA expects a consumption contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day for 2026 (up from the previous estimate of 1 million), while OPEC cut its demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels. US crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, marking the largest weekly build since January 2023. The stalemate in Hormuz persists: Iran stated that “it will remain closed until our conditions are accepted,” while Trump responded, “we are in control.” In Japan, PPI remained hot at 7.2%, pricing in a September BOJ rate hike. Non-ferrous metals rose 40.6% annually, chemicals increased 12.9%, and the yen-based import price index jumped 29.1%. Analysts expect the policy rate to rise from 1% to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. According to Reuters sources, joint intervention and Bessent’s desire for an early hike have made this decision virtually certain.

Main Agenda

CPI In Line with Expectations: Tail Risk Removed, No Catalyst Emerged. The highly anticipated inflation data arrived right where economists predicted. In July, headline consumer prices rose 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually (down from 3.5% in June); the core measure, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% monthly, slowing to 2.5% annually (down from 2.6% in June). This moderate increase weakened the argument for the Fed to raise rates next month: futures markets priced down the likelihood of a September hike to 38-40% from 46% prior to the data, compared to 55% a week ago. The market reaction was modest; gold gained 1.3%, ether rose 1%, bitcoin climbed roughly 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.2%. Gabe Selby from CF Benchmarks provided the framework that best explains why this print failed to generate momentum: Bitcoin makes its sharpest moves when inflation data forces a re-evaluation of interest rates. In three instances over the last nine releases where inflation came in below expectations, bitcoin gained an average of 3.25%, with a 4.24% rally following the downside surprise on July 14. Selby’s takeaway is critical: an in-line report can eliminate a tail risk, but it takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst. Selby also notes that the Fed has room to wait; shelter costs rose just 0.1%, energy dropped 1.5%, gasoline fell 2.9%, and several goods categories are now moving past last year’s tariff-driven price increases. Odds lean toward a hike in October or December; indeed, the market is pricing a 56% chance of a hike by October.

War of Words in Hormuz: ‘Full Control’ vs ‘Will Remain Closed’. On the war front, the diplomatic impasse has escalated into a battle of competing claims. Trump posted on Truth Social that “the US has full control over the Strait of Hormuz, and I assume we will maintain it.” Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority issued a sharp response, stating that repeated posts and claims by US officials asserting the strait is no longer closed do not alter reality; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are accepted. Physical data supports Iran’s claim: according to Kpler, vessel traffic through the strait is near three-month lows. On Tuesday, the five-day average was approximately 13 ships, nearly the lowest level since May 12. This figure represents a nearly 90% drop from the pre-attack average of 130 ships daily prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. In effect, the strait is functionally non-operational. Negotiating stances have also hardened, with both sides demanding “reparations” from one another. Iran outlined extensive demands: an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of American troops, and war reparations. A senior Iranian source stated there has been zero progress in talks to establish a timeline for reviving the temporary agreement reached in June. In an interview with PBS, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior advisor to the IRGC commander, claimed “victory is on our side” and suggested the American military is weaker than perceived. He characterized shifting US war objectives as a “war without strategy,” stating Iran’s goal is to establish deterrence by protracting the conflict and causing attrition. Reports also surfaced alleging preparations for operations on US soil.

Oil Streak Broken: Demand Forecasts and Record Inventory Build. Oil broke its six-day winning streak to trade lower on Thursday: Brent fell 0.5-1.2% to around $88, while WTI dropped to $82.20-$82.70. The decline stems from focus shifting from supply risks to the demand outlook, driven by three simultaneous developments. First, US commercial crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels for the week ending August 7—the largest weekly build since January 2023, completely opposing analyst expectations of a 1.4 million barrel draw. The increase was driven by a collapse in exports. Second, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day. Third, and most strikingly, the International Energy Agency announced it expects a consumption contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day this year, up from its 1 million barrel projection last month. According to the IEA, two factors are curbing demand: elevated prices and supply constraints resulting from the US-Israeli war with Iran. This marks a pivotal turning point showing the economic cost of the war has shifted from the supply side to the demand side; high prices are destroying demand, effectively creating their own ceiling. Nevertheless, the ongoing stalemate continues to put a floor under prices. Data opacity is adding further uncertainty to pricing. An additional crisis emerged as oil began leaking from a tanker that ran aground on June 30 carrying roughly 800,000 barrels of Russian oil, impacting the coast of Oman.

KOSPI Enters Bull Market: Up 23% From July Low. The South Korean equity market staged a dramatic turnaround following July’s historic crash, entering a technical bull market. The KOSPI surged 4% on Thursday, extending its recovery from the July 30 low to approximately 23% and surpassing the widely cited 20% bull market threshold. This represents a remarkable ten-day recovery for an index pushed into a bear market last month by leveraged positions and forced liquidation. SK Hynix jumped 7%, while Samsung gained 4-5.7%. Analysts agree on the drivers behind the rebound: the AI rally and robust underlying earnings remained constant throughout the sell-off, meaning fundamentals are restoring market balance. The sell-off was driven by technical factors and capital flows, while valuations and earnings were never fundamentally undermined. Furthermore, leverage unwinding eased as regulators tightened rules and brokerages normalized margin and risk requirements, potentially placing the market on firmer footing than during the rally prior to the crash. Risks, however, remain clear. At this junction, Korean equities are essentially synonymous with the AI hardware trade. The recovery is partly technical, driven by waning forced selling, the return of dip buyers, and fear of missing out (FOMO). Any development that challenges this narrative—whether a weak capital expenditure outlook from major cloud companies, falling token valuations, or fears of Fed tightening—could trigger a pull-back; volatility will persist as long as uncertainty remains around how AI hardware spending evolves. Jung In Yun of Fibonacci noted caution regarding classifying this as an entirely new bull market, adding that some consolidation following such a steep recovery would be healthy and that investors should not expect the market to climb at the same pace from here.

Macro Framework

Fed Bets Cool, BOJ Bets Heat Up The post-CPI macro picture highlights a stark divergence between the two central banks. In the US, the combination of weak employment and moderate inflation cooled September rate hike expectations: the market now prices a 38-40% probability, down from 55% a week ago, while the likelihood of a hike by October stands at 56%. Because August CPI will be released before the September FOMC meeting and crude futures have logged modest gains since July, both the Fed and markets will likely want to assess incoming data right up to the September meeting. Conversely, in Japan, the July Producer Price Index rose 7.2% annually (against expectations of 7.4%), remaining close to June’s 7.3% jump and reinforcing expectations of a BOJ hike in September. The data shows broadening price pressures: non-ferrous metals soared 40.6% annually, chemicals rose 12.9%, and the yen-based import price index jumped 29.1%, confirming that currency weakness is pushing up import costs and broader inflation. Wholesale inflation is expected to reaccelerate as renewed Middle East tensions drive up crude oil prices, which will elevate energy and other commodity costs; further yen depreciation could also inflate import prices, keeping the BOJ on track for a September hike. Analysts expect the policy rate to be raised from 1% to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, with Reuters sources noting that joint Japan-US intervention and Bessent’s push for an early hike have made this outcome virtually certain. The yen remains stable at 159.32, with the US Dollar Index at 99.93. Hawkish rhetoric also persists in Australia, where Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Kent stated that inflation threats remain tilted to the upside and “a lot would need to go right” to avoid another rate increase.

Gold Overbought at $4,460, Silver at $65 Precious metals extended their gains post-CPI. Gold rose 1.13% to $4,460, bringing its weekly gain to 5.1% and monthly gain to 9.8%. The RSI sits in overbought territory at 70.75, with stochastic indicators saturated at 100. This is the direct result of moderate inflation data lowering rate hike expectations; non-yielding metals are the primary beneficiaries of a easing rate environment. The price now stands 4.1% above its 200-day moving average, closing in on Citi’s fourth-quarter target of $4,500. Silver outperformed gold, rising 0.16% to $65.66 to secure weekly gains of 6.9% and monthly gains of 11.7%. Volume was exceptionally high at 14 times average levels, reflecting strong institutional interest. Palladium traded slightly lower at $1,366. Among industrial metals, copper slipped 0.49% to $6.56; the 40.6% annual jump in non-ferrous metals within Japan’s PPI highlights the widespread nature of global metal price pressures. Overall, precious metals remain supported by easing rate expectations, oil is under pressure from demand forecast downgrades, and industrial metals are anchored by AI and electrification demand.

Crypto

Bitcoin at $63,500: No Surprise, No Movement Bitcoin fell back to $63,500 following the in-line inflation report, down over 0.5% on the day and approximately 2% on the week. When the data was released, the price gained just 0.5% before failing to hold those gains. This muted reaction aligns with Selby’s framework: an in-line report removes a tail risk, but a genuine surprise is required to act as a catalyst. Bitcoin’s historical response to inflation data confirms this pattern; across three instances in the last nine prints where inflation came in below expectations, bitcoin gained an average of 3.25%, with a 4.24% rally following the downside surprise on July 14. With no surprise this time, the five-week consolidation range between $62,000 and $66,000 remained unbroken. XRP fell over 1% to $1 (down 5% on the week, making it the weakest performer), BNB slipped to $610, Solana to $76, and ether to $1,880. Technically, bitcoin trades just below its 50-day moving average ($64,544), with a neutral RSI of 48.86, negative MACD, and a very low volume ratio of 0.18 as summer liquidity deficits persist. The next potential catalysts are the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of this month, the September 4 employment report, and the September 11 inflation data. Jackson Hole will be particularly significant as the first major public test of Warsh’s stance away from forward guidance.

Equities

Asia Gains, Wall Street Mixed: Selective Tech Selling Equity markets welcomed the CPI data, but regional responses diverged. Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed small gains while the Dow declined; the S&P 500 logged its first gain in three sessions. Asia opened strong today; MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose nearly 1%, the Nikkei gained 1.6-1.9%, and the KOSPI jumped 4-4.4% to enter a bull market. The rally in Asian semiconductor stocks was broad-based: SK Hynix gained 7%, Samsung 5.7%, Advantest 4.9%, Disco 6%, and Kioxia 7%. Real-time data puts the S&P 500 at 7,748, the Nasdaq 100 at 29,742, and the Dow at 53,770. The VIX declined to 14.55, down 15.2% on the month, signaling a return of risk appetite. However, tech selling remains selective: Cisco fell 4% in extended trading despite beating expectations and raising guidance above analyst estimates; Cerebras plummeted 15-17% after missing revenue estimates due to declining hardware sales; Coherent dropped 3%. This underscores the recurring theme of the period: the bar for the AI narrative is set so high that even beating expectations may prove insufficient. Single-stock movements: NVDA rose 3% to $224, holding strong with a 10.1% monthly gain; ASML trades at $1,810 with a 7.9% weekly gain, while TSM sits at $429. In contrast, META fell 3.4% to $579, MSFT dropped 2.3% to $492 (RSI at 70.8, unwinding from overbought levels), and AAPL remained soft at $302. Applied Materials reports after the close today; the stock is up 27% over three months but remains 26% below its June 30 peak. Additionally, US PPI data (expected at +0.2%) and jobless claims will be released today, followed by retail sales tomorrow (expected at just +0.1%). These two data points will reveal whether they confirm the moderate inflation backdrop outlined by the CPI print.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
August 13	Thursday (today)	US July PPI (expected +0.2%); weekly jobless claims (expected 204k); UK Q2 GDP growth; Eurozone and UK industrial production
August 13	Thursday (today)	Applied Materials earnings (after-hours); Cisco down 4%, Cerebras down 17% — selective selling in tech
August 14	Friday	US July retail sales — expected at just +0.1%; consumer sentiment; final major data release of the week
Late August	—	Jackson Hole central bankers symposium — first major test of Warsh’s post-guidance stance
September 4	—	US August jobs report; September 11: August CPI — final two major data points before the September FOMC meeting
September 17-18	—	Bank of Japan policy meeting — analysts expect a rate hike from 1% to 1.25%; July PPI stayed hot at 7.2%