Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Daily briefing on Hormuz supply risks, pre-CPI inflation fears, Nvidia’s $500B AI financing, and Bitcoin whale accumulation.

Daily Summary

Oil hit a monthly high as the war stalemate deepened. Trump responded to Iran’s peace conditions with his own terms: Iran must pay compensation for those killed in wars, attacks, and protests. This rhetorical escalation weakened the likelihood of an imminent deal to reopen Hormuz. After jumping 5% on Monday, Brent held steady at $87.73, with WTI close to $84. Since February, Trump has repeatedly swung between threats of escalation and claims that a “deal is close.”

Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 for the fourth time, falling back to $64,000. Risk appetite eroded as the oil rally revived inflation concerns ahead of the CPI print; BTC pulled back from an intraday high of $65,300 in the Asian afternoon, dropping over 1% daily but remaining slightly positive on a weekly basis.

“The strongest hands” are back: Wallets holding 10,000+ BTC reached a six-month high. According to Santiment, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 bitcoins rose to 90, increasing by six (+7.1%) over the last eight weeks. Since July 29, whales and sharks have accumulated $1.5 billion worth of BTC, while “micro” wallets continue to shrink. Coins are shifting from smaller holders to the largest investors—historically a harbinger of major, mostly upward, price movements.

Gold at a two-month high, silver at $64. Gold dipped slightly to $4,375 after touching an intraday high of $4,434—its highest level since June 5. The rally in oil and softened rate expectations following weak payrolls data continue to support the metal. If the economy continues to cool without a meaningful resurgence in inflation, the dollar will remain vulnerable, maintaining a supportive backdrop for gold.

Nvidia established a $500 billion AI financing platform. Partnering with six major financial institutions, the company launched computing financing platforms aimed at raising over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure, demonstrating the massive scale of the sector’s investment boom. Today, CoreWeave and Super Micro report earnings, serving as a bellwether for cloud infrastructure and AI demand.

Hawkish signal from Hammack: “Time to start raising rates now.” The Cleveland Fed President stated that gradual rate hikes should begin now to avoid having to hike more aggressively later. This solidifies the stance of the three dissenting members who voted for a rate increase in July. Although weak employment data reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 44%, the hawkish wing is raising its voice; tomorrow’s CPI will resolve this tension.

Main Agenda

War Stalemate: Trump Demands “Compensation,” Oil Hits Monthly High

Over the weekend, Iran reiterated that the strait would only be opened once U.S. conditions were met, including compensation for attacks. Trump responded with his own demand: Iran must pay compensation for people killed in attacks and protests. This rhetorical escalation significantly weakened the likelihood of an imminent deal to reopen the key waterway. Since the war began in February, Trump has repeatedly oscillated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is near, increasingly fatiguing investors. Consequently, the market responds less and less to every “deal is close” or “I will hit hard” statement; the signal-to-noise ratio has dropped.

Nevertheless, oil reacted to this stalemate with a rally, hitting its highest level of the month: Brent held at $87.73 after jumping 5% on Monday, while WTI approached $84. This shows that prices, which dipped as low as $78 last week, recovered rapidly as hopes for a deal faded. Supply-side threats persist: the Houthis’ attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and ADNOC’s announcement that 15 of its vessels were struck keep the geopolitical premium alive. This rise in oil impacts not just the energy market, but the entire macro picture: rising crude places direct upward pressure on CPI data, risking a resurgence in rate hike expectations. Therefore, oil acts not merely as a commodity, but as a primary driver of inflation and interest rate expectations.

Bitcoin Pressing $65,000 Ahead of CPI

For the fourth consecutive time, Bitcoin failed to defend $65,000 and fell back to $64,000 on Tuesday; having surpassed $65,300 during the day, it slipped from that level during the Asian afternoon. The trigger for the decline was the oil rally reigniting pre-CPI inflation worries, pressuring assets that perform better when rate hikes look less likely. Bitcoin has been testing $65,000 for four days without seeing any increase in buying volume near this round number; more meaningfully, however, significant selling pressure has not emerged here either. Traders are betting against a rally, and these open positions could act as fuel if the price breaks upward.

This reading points to $70,000 as the next key region to watch—both another round number and a level near the 200-day moving average. Clearing this level would push Bitcoin above the range buyers and sellers fought over throughout March and April, significantly shifting sentiment. Yet, traders are not there just yet: the Crypto Sentiment Index sits at 30, within the “fear zone,” where it has lingered since mid-July with occasional dips into extreme fear. This indicates that despite improving price structure, market psychology remains cautious. Fund flows also reversed direction this week: spot Bitcoin funds pulled $865 million across five sessions through August 7, followed by a temporary outflow of $91 million on Monday. Tomorrow’s CPI remains the core variable that will resolve this tension.

“The Strongest Hands” Are Back: Whale Wallets at Six-Month High

While price struggles around $65,000, on-chain data reveals a strong accumulation narrative behind the scenes. According to Santiment, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 Bitcoins rose to 90, a six-month high; over the last eight weeks alone, the count of these “whale” wallets increased by six—a 7.1% jump. This move builds upon a broader accumulation trend highlighted four days ago: since July 29, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoins (whales and sharks) have accumulated $1.5 billion worth of BTC. During the same period, “micro” wallets consistently shrank throughout August.

Santiment attributes this divergence to two recent catalysts of uncertainty and doubt: the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability (which saw roughly $120 million in BTC offloaded) and ongoing delays in the Clarity Act, which the Senate pushed to September. In short, smaller retail investors sold on negative headlines, while the largest players bought. This represents a classic supply rotation: coins are shifting from smaller holders to the wallets of the largest investors, often dubbed “strong hands.” Historically, this concentration precedes major price movements, and according to Santiment, this latest rotation increases the probability that the next major leg will be to the upside. Combined with the ETF inflows and Glassnode’s $63,000 accumulation data noted yesterday, this paints a consistent picture of strengthening institutional and large-investor demand—though it remains unclear whether this accumulation marks the early stage of a recovery or a temporary pause.

Nvidia’s $500 Billion Financing Platform

Nvidia announced yesterday that it has partnered with six major financial institutions to launch computing financing platforms aimed at raising over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. This underscores both the immense scale of capital flowing into the sector and Nvidia’s evolution from a pure chip vendor into a central architect of investment financing. The news continues the “circular financing” theme observed over recent months; following the $250 billion financing guarantee Nvidia negotiated for OpenAI, a $500 billion platform is now being deployed for infrastructure finance.

This structure keeps alive the question of whether AI construction is turning into a self-sustaining capital loop—funding sector growth on one hand, while introducing systemic concentration risk on the other. Today, two important indicators of this theme report earnings: CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer. CoreWeave is expected to post a sharp rise in second-quarter revenue amid surging demand for AI cloud services among tech giants’ massive data center spending; investors will focus closely on their full-year outlook and capex plans. These two reports will test whether the “strong AI demand” thesis highlighted by S&P Global last week translates to the cloud infrastructure side. However, investors are no longer looking purely at strong revenues, but at whether this spending converts into sustainable profits; as seen with SpaceX and AMD, even record numbers can trigger sell-offs if they fail to beat heightened expectations.

Macro Framework

Yields Rise, Hammack Speaks Hawkishly, Yen at 159

The bond market is under renewed pressure from the oil rally and hawkish Fed commentary. The US 10-year yield rose six basis points on Monday to 4.71%, dragging down Australian and New Zealand bonds as well; cash bond trading was closed during Asian hours due to a public holiday in Japan. Two forces are driving yields higher: crude reaching monthly highs to revive inflation fears, and hawkish signals from the Fed.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a clearly hawkish stance on Monday, stating that it is time to start gradually raising rates now to avoid the need for sharper hikes later. This reinforces the positioning of the three dissenters who voted for an increase at the July meeting and counterbalances the dovish sentiment spawned by weak employment data. The US dollar recovered from two-month lows in this environment, while the yen weakened past 159 against the dollar, giving back a portion of its post-intervention gains. USD/JPY sits around 159—away from last month’s four-decade low of 164, but continuing to erase post-intervention gains. The Euro trades at $1.1551, and Sterling stands at $1.3486. With a light economic calendar today, focus remains on Middle Eastern developments and expectations for tomorrow’s CPI. The market is currently pricing in a 44% probability of a September rate hike; the tension between Hammack’s hawkish tone and weak payroll dovishness will be resolved by tomorrow’s inflation print.

Gold Pulls Back Slightly from Two-Month High, Silver Holds Strong

Precious metals took a breath ahead of CPI following a strong rally. Gold dipped 0.3% to $4,375 after touching $4,434 during the session—its highest level since June 5. Gold’s move beyond $4,400 was primarily driven by renewed inflows and a distinct shift in metal market sentiment; if this sentiment shift continues to attract capital, it will be a key factor determining whether gold consolidates around $4,400 and extends its recovery higher. If data continues to point to a cooling economy without a meaningful resurgence in inflation, markets may further pare back tight policy expectations, leaving the dollar vulnerable and providing a supportive floor for gold.

In short, gold’s path depends directly on tomorrow’s CPI: a soft reading supports gold, while a hot reading could reignite rate hike fears and apply pressure. Silver fell 1.7% to $64.64 but remains strong on a weekly basis; platinum stands at $1,746 and palladium at $1,372. In industrial metals, copper maintains its near-record trajectory; electrification, AI demand, and headlines like Nvidia’s $500 billion infrastructure financing continue to feed copper’s structural demand story.

Crypto

Bitcoin $64,000: Four-Day Resistance and Strong Hands

Bitcoin failed to defend $65,000 for the fourth consecutive day, pulling back to $64,000; it dropped over 1% daily but remains slightly positive on the week. The catalyst for the pullback was the oil rally reviving pre-CPI inflation worries. Further down, the picture is weak: Ether dropped over 2% to $1,878 as the weakest major asset, while XRP fell 2% to $1.01—down 6% weekly as the clear laggard of the group.

The structure behind the price movement represents today’s primary debate. In the four-day test of $65,000, there was neither a surge in buying nor aggressive selling; the absence of heavy selling points to open-interest buildup above this level rather than profit-taking, which could serve as fuel if price breaks upward. The next target is $70,000 near the 200-day moving average; clearing this level would meaningfully shift market sentiment. On-chain data supports this positive interpretation: per Santiment, 10k+ BTC wallets hit a six-month high of 90, whales accumulated $1.5 billion since July 29, and this classic supply rotation (from small to large holders) historically precedes upward moves. However, market psychology remains cautious: the Crypto Sentiment Index sits at 30 in the “fear zone” and has remained here since mid-July. True direction hinges on tomorrow’s CPI.

On the corporate side, there are two key developments:

1. Strategy: The company sold 1,690 Bitcoins last week at an average price of $64,262 to raise $108.6 million, utilizing these proceeds to buy back 1.15 million shares of its variable-rate preferred stock (STRC). Additionally, it raised $653 million from the sale of 6.59 million common shares, allocating $650 million to its USD reserve, raising the total reserve to $4.65 billion. This reduced Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings to 840,447 BTC (average cost $75,385). This demonstrates the company’s evolution from a pure Bitcoin accumulator to an active balance-sheet manager rebalancing between Bitcoin and cash reserves.
2. Fund Flows: Spot Bitcoin funds pulled $865 million across five sessions through August 7, but Monday saw a temporary outflow of $91 million, indicating that institutional demand has taken a cautious pause ahead of CPI.

Overall, crypto continues to move primarily in tandem with macro factors—namely the oil-inflation-rates chain—rather than its own native dynamics. Tomorrow’s CPI will be decisive for the week: a below-consensus reading would reinforce the dovish narrative from weak payrolls and support Bitcoin’s attempt to break the $65,000 resistance. Conversely, an above-consensus print—amplified by the oil rally—could rebuild rate hike expectations and push Bitcoin back toward $63,000 or lower.

Commodity Landscape

Oil at Monthly High: Stalemate Premium Escalates, CPI Risk Grows

Oil rose to its highest level of the month as the war stalemate deepened: Brent held at $87.73 after a 5% jump on Monday, with WTI approaching $84; both traded near these levels on Tuesday. This demonstrates that prices, which dropped to $78 last week on deal hopes, recovered rapidly after Trump’s compensation demand extinguished near-term deal prospects.

The equation is currently tilted to the upside: Iranian conditions, Trump’s counter-demands, the absence of direct talks, the Houthi attack on Aramco’s Jazan refinery, and hit vessels from ADNOC all feed the geopolitical risk premium. On the downside, Bessent’s comment that “Hormuz will become irrelevant,” OPEC+’s September output increase, and ongoing physical flows exist, but these forces remain outweighed by upward pressure for now. Technically, Brent is testing its monthly peak.

The critical element remains oil’s macro impact. Rising crude adds direct upward pressure to tomorrow’s CPI print; last month’s dip in June CPI was largely driven by falling energy costs, whereas oil is now rebounding. This explains why tomorrow’s data is so vital: an inflation surprise driven by oil could reverse the dovish sentiment from weak employment and reignite rate-hike speculation. Crude is therefore not just a commodity, but a key variable for risk appetite and Fed expectations. Energy equities are finding support from rising oil, though price sustainability depends on the trajectory of the war stalemate.

Equities Front

Caution After Record Highs: Oil and CPI Uncertainty Weigh

Equity markets took a cautious tone following Friday’s record close. Asian shares drifted as ongoing Middle East tensions and prolonged uncertainty regarding the global inflation outlook weighed on sentiment. Wall Street and European futures traded slightly lower, pressured by rising crude. This illustrates how a market at record highs, having priced in good news, becomes vulnerable to oil and CPI uncertainty while awaiting new catalysts.

Real-time data shows the S&P 500 at 7,743 points—very close to its historical high and in a bullish alignment, though momentum is approaching overbought territory (RSI 68). The Nasdaq 100 and Dow are also near record highs. On an individual stock level, AI leadership persists but remains selective: NVDA is showing strength at $224 (up 11.6% weekly) backed by its $500 billion financing platform news, while MSFT stands at $500 (up 30.4% monthly) but is overbought with an RSI of 78. Conversely, TSLA is the weakest link at $328 (down 16.6% monthly) in a bearish setup.

Today’s CoreWeave and Super Micro earnings will cast light on the high-flying AI-cloud trade; CoreWeave is expected to report robust revenue driven by AI cloud demand, though investors will focus heavily on guidance and capex plans. Nvidia’s $500 billion platform news confirms that the sector’s investment appetite remains intact, while simultaneously keeping “circular financing” concerns active. Tomorrow’s CPI will be the true arbiter: a market at record highs is particularly exposed to a hot inflation print following the oil rally. An above-consensus reading could reignite rate hike expectations and trigger profit-taking across record-high stocks; a soft reading would open up room for the rally to continue. The market views this data point as the referee that will resolve the tension between dovish labor data and hawkish Fed rhetoric from Hammack.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Development
August 11	Tuesday (Today)	Light economic data calendar — focus on Middle East developments; German 5-year bond auction; Earnings: CoreWeave, Super Micro Computer
August 11	Tuesday (Today)	Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated “it is time to start gradually raising rates now” — hawkish signal; Nvidia launches $500 billion AI financing platform with six major banks
August 12	Wednesday	US July CPI — main event of the week; headline expected at +0.1% MoM (3.4% YoY), core at +0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY); oil rally presents upside risk
August 13	Thursday	US July PPI; Weekly initial jobless claims; Earnings: Applied Materials, Cisco
August 14	Friday	US July Retail Sales (expected +0.2%, downside risk as Prime Day shifted to June); Consumer Sentiment
On the Front	—	Trump responded to Iran’s peace conditions with counter-demands: Iran must pay compensation for deaths in war, attacks, and protests — weakening deal prospects; Oil at monthly high
September 16	—	September FOMC — probability of a rate hike dropped to 44% post-labor market shock; CPI will be decisive
August 18	—	Solana SIMD-0550/0553 signaling window expires — an additional 40M SOL required to reach the 15% threshold