Daily Global Market & Crypto Brief: Ceasefire Collapse, Bond Revolt & BTC Shift

Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Daily briefing on Middle East geopolitical escalation, global bond market revolt, oil supply risks, and Bitcoin leverage shifts.

Daily Summary

• Ceasefire Ends as Iran Shifts to “Full Aggressive” Stance: The 60-day temporary ceasefire expired Monday after the US refused an extension. A senior Iranian official stated Tehran will move to a “full aggressive” military posture as permanent peace efforts stall. Meanwhile, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of Strait of Hormuz negotiations, despite Oman’s long-standing status as a US security partner.
• Bond Market Revolt: The US 30-year yield touched 5.321% intraday—its highest since June 2007—while the 10-year yield reached 4.726%. Japan’s 10-year yield hit a three-decade high of 2.945%. According to MUFG, global macro focus remains fixed on sticky, rising developed market yields driven by a persistent sell-off in US Treasuries, rising oil prices, Fed uncertainty, and heavy debt supply.
• Oil Rises for Third Straight Day: Brent Crude advanced to $91.49, and WTI rose to $85.25—both hitting their highest levels since late July. Hormuz vessel transits remain in single digits, with another ship struck by a projectile today. Additionally, the Houthis claimed a missile attack on a Saudi military vessel and four escorts in the Red Sea. DBS notes oil will likely hover between $80–$100 while agreement uncertainty lingers.
• Bitcoin Crosses $64,000: BTC rose 1.25% daily to $64,256, clearing out a massive short liquidation tower. However, FxPro warns that BTC remains below both its 50-day average (for 4 consecutive days) and its 200-week average, keeping sellers in structural control within the $62,000–$65,000 range.
• Crypto Warning Signals Mount: Exchange Bitcoin balances reached a two-month high (bearish), while open interest leverage flipped from short-heavy to long-heavy, creating conditions for a potential counter-squeeze. Today’s key option pivot sits at $63,680; losing it risks further downside, whereas $65,200 serves as the next upside target.
• Miners Reallocate 21% Hashrate to AI: Public miners reduced overall computing power by a fifth over three quarters, redirecting capacity toward AI infrastructure due to weak mining economics and intense competition for capital and power.
• Wall Street Closes Lower: S&P 500 fell 0.52% and the Dow dropped 0.51%. Energy was the sole gainful sector. Micron (+4%) and Applied Materials (+5.5%) rallied, while Microsoft and Meta both slipped over 3%.

Main Agenda

Ceasefire Ends: Iran Goes ‘Full Aggressive’, Trump Threatens Oman

A dangerous new phase has begun in the conflict that initiated with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. The 60-day ceasefire reached in June expired Monday after Washington refused an extension. Speaking to Fox News, Trump mentioned informal talks with the IRGC but added he was in no rush: “They are good poker players, but they are dying.”Hours later, when asked if he would extend the ceasefire, he answered simply: “No.”

Tehran responded sharply, with a senior official telling Reuters that Iran would adopt a “full aggressive” military stance due to blocked peace efforts. In another escalation, Trump threatened Oman—which had been mediating Hormuz transit terms—stating he would bomb the Gulf state if it “gets in the way.” Physical disruptions persist: a vessel exiting Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile today, keeping transit volumes in single digits. In the Red Sea, Houthis claimed strikes against a Saudi military vessel and four escorts. Oil reacted with a third day of gains, pushing Brent to $91.49 and WTI to $85.25. DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar highlighted that prolonged deadlock will reframe price expectations through Q4 and into 2027.

Bond Market Revolt: 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2007

The primary macro drag on equities comes from the fixed income market. The US 30-year yield reached 5.321%—its highest since June 2007—while the 20-year reached 5.316% and the 10-year rose to 4.726%. Spillover was felt globally as Japan’s 10-year JGB yield added 2.5 bps to hit 2.945%, a 30-year peak.

Three main drivers fuel the relentless Treasury sell-off:

1. Energy Pressures: Brent crude near $91 reignites inflation persistence concerns.
2. Fed Policy Ambiguity: Weak economic data lowered September rate hike expectations to 35% (down from 52.2% last week), but non-committal guidance leaves a persistent credibility premium in long-end yields.
3. Debt Supply: Debt auctions face demands for multi-decade high yields to absorb ongoing US borrowing needs.

With inflation sitting above target for most of the past five years, constant supply shocks leave little margin for error. Bond traders currently exhibit greater concern over long-term inflation than currency traders; should bond markets prove correct, recent US dollar retracements may prove temporary.

Bitcoin Passes $64,000 as Leverage Bias Inverts

Bitcoin outperformed major altcoins with a 1.25% daily gain to $64,256, liquidating short positions overhead. However, underlying positioning suggests caution. Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro) notes that Bitcoin remains below its 50-day moving average for four straight days and below its 200-week moving average, leaving sellers in control unless price breaks out of the $62,000–$65,000 range.

On-chain metrics present two key warning signs:

• Exchange Inflows: Exchange BTC balances climbed to two-month highs, indicating potential sell pressure. The previous ETF unwind dissolved six weeks of consolidation in less than three days.
• Leverage Reversal: The heavy short leverage overhead that previously fueled upward squeezes has cleared out. In its place, traders are building new long leverage. Without short positioning to squeeze, building long leverage during range-bound price action increases downward breakdown risks.

Near-term technical levels highlight $63,680 as today’s options pivot, with $65,200 acting as upside resistance (confluent with the daily VWAP 3rd standard deviation). A 2-day Bollinger squeeze points to an impending volatility expansion outside the $62,000–$66,000 channel, with $64,000 serving as the point of control.

Miners Pivot to AI: Hashrate Down 21% Over Three Quarters

Public Bitcoin miners reduced total computing power by 21% across three quarters, shifting infrastructure toward artificial intelligence. According to Miner Weekly, low mining margins combined with aggressive competition for power and capital from the AI sector drove the reallocation. While this introduces long-term questions regarding network hashrate dynamics, it may alleviate miner liquidations in the short term by diversifying balance sheet revenue.

Elsewhere in the ecosystem:

• AI & Crypto Integration: Venice, an AI platform founded by Erik Voorhees, reported annualized revenues exceeding $100M, driving its VVV token up 10% daily to $13.30.
• XRP Institutional Divergence: Despite Ripple announcing its third Korean partnership this year—Jeonbuk Bank adopting Ripple Payments for cross-border settlements—XRP fell below $1.00 to $0.9957. As CoinDesk highlighted, Ripple has emphasized its USD-pegged stablecoin (RLUSD) as a primary settlement asset; RLUSD accounts for $845M of the $1.38B tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger. Futures open interest stands at $2.78B, with long-to-short account ratios above 3:1 on Binance and OKX despite social sentiment touching three-month lows.

Macro Framework

US Dollar Recovers From Two-Month Lows; September Rate Hike Odds at 35%

Driven by safe-haven flows, the US Dollar Index rebounded slightly from two-month lows, rising 0.1% to trade between 99.60–99.66. The Euro pulled back from Monday’s two-month high of 1.1614 to 1.1571–1.1577, while Sterling hovered near three-month highs at 1.3534–1.3537. The Australian Dollar held near its strongest levels since early June at 0.7101.

Expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to soften: markets price a 35% chance of a September hike (down from 52.2% last week), with traders pricing out a full hike before year-end. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through the next meeting and through the end of the year.

The Yen trades at 159.675, just below the 160 threshold, as attention shifts to next month’s Bank of Japan meeting where rate hikes remain on the table. Macquarie estimates US authorities sold ~$500M worth of Euros on July 31 to buy Yen—a fraction of Japan’s estimated $85B intervention—indicating Washington’s involvement served primarily as a market signal.

Gold Pauses at $4,442; Cocoa and Wheat Show Strength

Precious metals consolidated following two days of gains:

• Gold: Traded between $4,402–$4,442 (-0.3% to -0.55%), maintaining a strong monthly gain of 10.7% with an RSI of 68. Gold remains 3.6% above its 200-day moving average as it tests 100-day resistance. Higher yields act as a headwind, offset by geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness.
• Silver: Dropped 1.8% to $64.93, though it retains a 15.9% monthly gain. Volume ratios reached an elevated 16.8x.
• Palladium: Fell 1.21% to $1,318, shifting into a bearish alignment.
• Copper: Slipped 0.55% to $6.568, maintaining a bullish structure 2.4% below all-time highs.

Soft commodities and grains posted significant moves:

• Cocoa: Advanced 0.56% to $6,044 (+9.2% monthly), with RSI at 63.
• Wheat: Rose 2% to $688.25 (+9.2% weekly), bringing prices within 3.2% of 52-week highs.
• Coffee: Declined 7.95% daily to $345.10, despite remaining up 3.9% on the week, highlighting ongoing volatility across softs.

Crypto Markets

Bitcoin ($64,256): Short Liquidation Cleared, Position Bias Flips

Bitcoin gained 1.25% on Tuesday to $64,256 (+1% weekly), clearing out upper short liquidation concentrations. Major altcoins lagged:

• Ether (ETH): -0.1% daily to $1,897 (+0.8% weekly).
• XRP: Fell below $1.00 to $0.9957, lagging majors on both daily and weekly timeframes.
• Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.0699.
• Cardano (ADA): -2.09% to $0.1734.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Outperformed, rising ~1% past $59 (+7.5% weekly).

Technical and On-Chain Summary

• Options Pivot: $63,680. A failure to hold this level risks accelerated downside, while $65,200 marks resistance.
• Volatility Squeeze: A 2-day Bollinger squeeze indicates an impending expansion around the $62,000–$66,000channel, with $64,000 acting as the point of control.
• Model Indicators: The Pioneer model dropped below its green buy line—a signal that preceded the October crypto pullback.

Catalysts for the remainder of the week include the release of the Fed meeting minutes and the scheduled White House crypto conference.

Commodity Environment

Brent Crude ($91.49): Ceasefire Expiration Restores Risk Premium

Oil logged a third consecutive session of gains following the ceasefire expiration and Iran’s shift to a “full aggressive” posture:

• Brent Crude: +0.7% to $91.49 (8.6% above its 200-day moving average).
• WTI Crude: $85.25.

Physical supply risks stay elevated due to single-digit Hormuz transits, a new vessel strike, Houthi missile reports in the Red Sea, and rhetoric directed at Oman. Preliminary Reuters surveys project a draw in US crude and distillate inventories, which may offer further price support following last week’s inventory builds.

Equity Overview

Wall Street Pulls Back on Yield and Energy Pressures

US equity indices closed lower to start the week:

• S&P 500: -0.52% to 7,745.06
• Dow Jones: -0.51% to 53,459.78
• Nasdaq Composite: -0.31% to 26,644.91

Energy (+0.87%) was the sole gaining sector. Communication Services and Consumer Staples fell ~1.5%, while Financials and Consumer Discretionary lost over 1%. Semiconductor equities gained 1.6% (Micron +4%, Applied Materials +5.5%), whereas software indices fell 2.8% (Microsoft and Meta both down >3%).

Global markets weakened overnight: US futures trended lower (S&P -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.59%), the Nikkei fell 2.1%, and the KOSPI gave up early 3%+ gains to close flat. Earnings focus turns to Home Depot (pre-market today) and Walmart (Thursday) for consumer health metrics, followed by Nvidia next week.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Indicator
August 18	Tuesday (Today)	UK Unemployment Rate & Average Weekly Earnings; Eurozone & German ZEW Surveys; US Import/Export Prices, Housing Starts
August 18	Tuesday (Today)	Home Depot Earnings (Pre-market); UK 10-Year Gilt Auction
August 19	Wednesday	FOMC Meeting Minutes (28–29 July); Lowe’s Earnings; Scheduled White House Crypto Meeting
August 20	Thursday	Walmart Earnings; Eurozone Consumer Confidence
August 21	Friday	Flash S&P Global August PMIs
Ongoing	—	Ceasefire expired Monday; US declined extension; Iran announced ‘full aggressive’ stance; Trump warned Oman
August 27–29	—	Jackson Hole Symposium (Key speech from Warsh)
Next Week	—	Nvidia Earnings Report