Global Market Daily: Fed’s Jackson Hole Test, Record Crypto ETF Inflows, and AI Tariff Risks

Friday, August 28, 2026 | Daily briefing on Warsh’s Jackson Hole test, record crypto ETF flows, Nvidia’s tariff risks, and crude’s weekly loss.

Daily Summary

• Today is Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech — the question to answer: Is current inflation a problem or not, and what should be done about it? Warsh has so far avoided speaking about the state of the economy and the direction of Fed policy during his tenure, but unease within the Fed is growing. Inflation has exceeded the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, and in July, PCE unexpectedly remained flat at 3.7%.
• Hawkish voices emerged from within the Fed. Kansas City Fed President Schmid, hosting Jackson Hole, characterized inflation as “still stubborn” and “still sticky,” offering a striking statement: “I don’t know what we are restricting with the interest rate policy we have today.” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also identified inflation as his primary concern: “Everyone should be on alert, and my biggest short-term fear is that inflation is not under control.”
• ANZ: We do not expect him to provide guidance, but markets hope he will eliminate some of the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s reaction function; we do not expect this to happen, but given recent volatility in rates markets, if Warsh offers too little, it could trigger a negative market reaction. New chairs use this stage to framework their tenure, and the language he establishes on Friday will be applied to every data print over the coming year.
• Bitcoin is heading to close August with a 24.5% gain: its best month since late 2024. BTC stands at $79,637, having hit $81,280 overnight. The real story lies in ETFs: Spot bitcoin funds carried inflows into a ninth consecutive day on August 27 with $242.30 million, while ether funds also recorded a ninth straight inflow day with $235 million on the same date. August flows exceeded $3 billion; if one more session brings net buying, the month will surpass October 2025 as the largest inflow month since the funds’ launch.
• The Coinbase premium turned positive for the first time since May. The gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and Binance turned positive on Friday, pointing to relatively stronger demand on the Nasdaq-traded US exchange. Historically, a sustained premium has been a recurring feature of bitcoin bull runs.
• Nvidia added $442 billion in market value. The stock jumped 8.74% to $227.98, lifting the Nasdaq 1.3%; the tech sector, S&P 500, and Nasdaq experienced their best days since August 4. However, two new risks emerged: The Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors, and according to the WSJ, Nvidia has suspended certain deals under a new financing initiative providing credit support to AI cloud providers in exchange for revenue sharing.
• Oil breaks a two-week winning streak with a weekly loss of 5-6%. Brent trades in the $88.35–$89.45 range. Iran and Oman reached an agreement on strait traffic management and revenue sharing, but according to the WSJ, the Trump administration has repeatedly informed mediators that it is not interested in reviving the June accord, and the White House confirmed there are no talks. Wheat rose 11.8% weekly to $762, while Solana leads the crypto space with a monthly gain of 45.1%.

Main Agenda

Warsh’s Test: The Speech That Will Frame a Year of Language

Today, the market’s sole focus is Warsh’s debut speech as chair at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium. Having refrained from making specific comments on the state of the economy and Fed policy during his tenure, Warsh is under pressure to address a central issue: Is current inflation a problem or not, and what should be done about it?

The source of the pressure comes from within the Fed itself. A growing minority among his colleagues is becoming concerned about inflation; three FOMC members dissented from last month’s decision to hold rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Inflation has run above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, and the Fed’s preferred gauge unexpectedly stagnated at 3.7% in July.

Messages from officials gathering at Jackson Hole on Thursday set the tone. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid told CNBC that inflation remains “stubborn” and “sticky,” asking a poignant question: “I don’t know what we are restricting with the interest rate policy we have today.” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee echoed that inflation is his top concern: “Everyone should be on alert; my biggest short-term fear is that inflation is not under control.”

Market expectations are measured, but the risk goes both ways. ANZ analysts note: “We do not expect him to offer guidance, but markets hope he will eliminate some of the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s reaction function; we do not expect this to happen, but given recent volatility in rates markets, if Warsh offers too little, it could trigger a negative market reaction.” This warning has concrete precedent: following the July meeting, long-term yields spiked on the perception that Warsh failed to provide sufficiently tangible steps to tackle persistent high inflation.

Natalia Lojevsky of CIFC Asset Management points to the lasting impact of the speech: “Investors have very little track record of how he speaks; new chairs use this stage to framework their tenure, and the language he establishes on Friday will be applied to every data print over the coming year.” The market currently prices in a 33.7%–35% probability of a hike at the September 16 meeting and a 74%–75% probability of a hike by December.

Crypto Closes August with Record ETF Flows

On the crypto front, the month’s story centers on flows rather than price action. Bitcoin stands at $79,637, pulling back slightly after touching $81,280 overnight; nevertheless, its monthly gain stands at 24.5%, putting it on track for its best month since late 2024.

The real development is institutional demand: US spot bitcoin funds pulled in $242.30 million on August 27, extending their inflow streak to nine consecutive trading days. Spot ether funds recorded their ninth consecutive inflow session on the same day with $235 million. The streak dates back to August 17 and has continued uninterrupted since. August flows crossed $3 billion, making it the strongest month of 2026; with one trading day remaining, a single additional session of net buying will make this the largest inflow month since launch, surpassing October 2025. Total net assets of spot bitcoin funds reached $79.16 billion.

Buying is broad-based: BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $209 million of the $338 million in bitcoin fund inflows on August 24, while ETHA brought in $90.92 million of that day’s $116 million ether total. Furthermore, on August 27, spot Solana funds drew $60.91 million, and Hyperliquid funds pulled in $24.42 million. The two categories recorded their largest combined week since October at $2.3 billion, signaling that institutions are establishing positions across both assets rather than rotating between them.

Additionally, the BTC US premium turned positive on Friday for the first time since May. This metric tracks the price difference between US exchanges and offshore platforms; a positive reading indicates stronger demand on Nasdaq-traded US exchanges compared to offshore Binance. This is no ordinary indicator: historically, a sustained premium has been a recurring feature of bitcoin bull runs. The reason for the reversal is clear—renewed interest in US-listed spot funds, most of which utilize US exchanges as custodians. These funds attracted $3.51 billion in investor capital, the highest amount since October 2025. However, the premium needs to prove durable: for Bitcoin to sustain its recent momentum and clear critical resistance levels like the 50-week simple moving average near $81,000, this reversal must persist. Analysts view this line as the last major hurdle bulls must clear to claim decisive victory.

The Real Risk: Divergence Between a Hawkish Rate Setup and the Crypto Rally

Heading into today’s speech, the most striking dynamic is the misalignment between interest rate expectations and crypto prices. Futures price in a 35% probability of a rate hike in September and have fully priced in a move by December—a hawkish setup. Despite this, bitcoin gained 9% for the week and 24.5% for the month.

CoinDesk identifies this divergence directly as a positioning risk: Hawkish rate pricing has failed to halt crypto, and this mismatch represents the primary risk being carried into Warsh’s speech. The logic is as follows: The rally is not being fed by rate expectations, but rather by the debasement trade triggered by Treasury bond buybacks and strong ETF demand. Should Warsh sound more hawkish than anticipated, the interest rate channel could overpower these two drivers.

On the technical side, key levels have solidified. We now face a squeeze that has collided with a defined set of sellers; spot demand is absorbing overhead supply between $77,100 and $80,000. This is the updated state of the debate we have monitored for weeks: A move that began with short squeezes is now undergoing the test of whether real spot demand can absorb upper selling pressure. Nine consecutive days of ETF inflows and the return of a positive US premium provide the upside support for this test.

On the downside, Solana stands out: it jumped 5.92% to $106.94, leading the majors with a 45.1% monthly gain. ENA posted the sharpest move—up 10.5% daily and 104.9% monthly—following a governance vote directing protocol revenue toward buybacks and restructuring venture unlocks. Today also marks a massive options expiry in crypto, which could amplify any volatility generated by the speech.

Nvidia Adds $442 Billion, but Two New Risks Emerge

Nvidia’s earnings delivered a strong session for equity markets: The stock jumped 8.74% to $227.98, adding roughly $442 billion in market value. The Nasdaq rose 1.3%, and the tech sector, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite logged their best single-day gains since August 4.

The core figures are worth reiterating: $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue and a third-quarter guidance exceeding $105 billion indicate that the AI spending boom still has years ahead. The Taiwanese stock exchange rallied 1.2% on these tailwinds. However, two new risk factors surfaced on the same day, both requiring close monitoring:

1. Tariff Risk: The Trump administration is reportedly considering new tariffs on semiconductors used within the United States. This comes as the AI infrastructure buildout race between the US and China intensifies, alongside growing uneasiness among US lawmakers regarding American companies adopting Chinese AI models, which achieved notable capability leaps this year. An interesting paradox has formed: Nvidia is increasing its support for Chinese AI models while simultaneously warning of potential regulatory pressure from the US.
2. Financing Concerns: According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia has paused certain deals within a new financing initiative that offered credit support to AI cloud providers in exchange for revenue sharing. This raises questions about the sector’s overall financial architecture—notably following news earlier this month regarding Nvidia’s $500 billion AI financing platform established with six major banks.

In South Korea, SK Hynix is expanding its US footprint by constructing a new facility in Indiana. CEO Kwak Noh-Jung stated the plant will transform the state into “a key HBM production base in America” by 2030, aligning with South Korea’s broader $350 billion commitment.

Macro Framework

Employment Remains Solid, Trade Deficit Hits 16-Month High

Thursday’s data painted a picture that provides the Fed room to stay focused on inflation. Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, beating expectations of 208,000. Claims remain near the lower end of this year’s 189,000–230,000 range, indicating that while hiring remains sluggish, layoffs stay low.

Continuing claims dropped by 18,000 to 1.778 million, reaching a one-month low; this data coincides with the survey week for the August non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate sits at a historically low 4.1%, despite July’s surprise dip in employment figures. ADP and Revelio data outline a more balanced labor market than implied by the more volatile BLS metrics, displaying modest and steady private-sector job creation fully aligned with the level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable.

Conversely, a notable deterioration occurred on the trade front: The US goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June, reaching its highest level since March 2025. Exports fell for the third consecutive month, losing 2.9% to $199.4 billion—the lowest level since January—led by an 11.2% drop in industrial goods. Imports, meanwhile, rose 3.7% to $318.2 billion, driven by an 11.3% surge in capital goods linked to equipment necessary to support the AI buildout.

Martin from Oxford Economics noted: “This category was buoyed by relentless corporate spending on high-tech goods tied to the AI buildout, which shows no signs of slowing at this juncture; we expect capital goods imports to support solid import growth through 2027.” Consequently, trade is expected to subtract from growth in the third quarter for the fourth consecutive time; Martin estimates this drag at 1 percentage point, following a 1.14 percentage point drag in the second quarter.

In foreign exchange, the US Dollar Index holds near a one-week high at 99.12–99.13, up 0.3% for the week, though it remains on track to close August down 0.7% for its second consecutive monthly loss. The Australian dollar hit a three-month high of $0.72 as hot inflation data reinforced expectations of a firm stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, setting the currency on path for its ninth consecutive weekly gain.

Gold Retreats Ahead of Warsh; Wheat and Cocoa Surge

Precious metals are displaying caution ahead of the speech. Gold is up 0.54% at $4,634.50, though it has pulled back from Tuesday’s multi-month high of $4,696. Its monthly gain remains strong at 14.9%, with the RSI sitting in overbought territory at 71.3.

The case for Warsh to lean hawkish is stronger than the case against it, which could push gold further back from its cycle highs in the near term. However, this can also be interpreted as an opportunity: Such a pullback may be welcomed by bulls who missed the initial stage of the rally and are looking to target $5,000 once again.

Wong from OCBC noted: “Gold is supported by improving fund and futures participation, concerns over US fiscal sustainability, and ongoing official sector purchases, though consolidation risks persist.” Wong remains constructive on silver as well, adding a caveat: “A cleaner upside extension will likely require renewed weakness in yields and the dollar, alongside a decisive break above the $70.60–$72 resistance zone.” Silver stands at $69.68 with a monthly gain of 20.4%, palladium surged 2.68% to $1,373.50, and platinum is heading for a weekly loss. Copper is up 1.63% at $6.6945, just 0.82% below its record high.

Movements continue across grains and soft commodities: Wheat gained 2.59% to $762, closing the week up 11.8%. Cocoa rose 1.27% to $6,155, locking in an 18.3% monthly gain. Coffee, however, dropped 8.92% on the day to $341.90, ending the week 6% lower.

Crypto

Bitcoin at $79,637: August Heads for Record Month, Final Resistance at $81,000

Bitcoin is trading at $79,637, pulling back below $80,000 after touching $81,280 overnight. On the downside of major altcoins, Solana is the clear leader, jumping 5.92% to $106.94 with a 45.1% monthly gain. ENA posted the sharpest move, gaining 10.5% daily and 104.9% monthly, driven by a governance vote allocating protocol revenue to buybacks and restructuring venture unlocks. XRP gained 1.52% to $1.4210, AVAX rose 1.57% to $7.44, while ether traded flat at $2,484 while maintaining a 30% monthly gain. HYPE was the only major token ending the day in the red.

On the technical chart, a single threshold stands out: the 50-week simple moving average around $81,000. Analysts define this line as the last major hurdle bulls must cross to declare absolute victory. Just above it lies the May high, sitting slightly below $83,000; according to Kruger, pullbacks should now remain capped at this level. On the downside, the absorption zone is critical: Spot demand is absorbing overhead supply between $77,100 and $80,000, leading teams to describe the current state as “a squeeze that has hit a defined seller wall.”

The key message of the week resides in flows rather than price action. Nine consecutive days of ETF inflows occurring simultaneously across both bitcoin and ether, coupled with August tracking to become the largest inflow month since launch, offer concrete proof that the rally is not built solely on short covering. August needs just one more net buying session to surpass October 2025. Another buying day during the speech session would demonstrate that demand remains resilient against a chair who does not rule out rate hikes.

The US premium turning positive for the first time since May completes this picture; this indicator has historically been a recurring feature of bull runs, signaling that US-based demand is strengthening relative to offshore demand. However, the premium must remain sustained.

Two key themes stand out on the risk side:

1. Today’s Speech: The divergence between hawkish rate pricing (35% probability in September, fully priced by December) and the 24% monthly crypto gain represents the main positioning risk being carried forward. If Warsh leans harsher than expected, a correction in an overbought market could be sharp.
2. Options Expiry: Today’s large options expiration could amplify the magnitude of any movement triggered by the speech.

Institutional news flow remains favorable: Spot Solana funds drew $60.91 million and Hyperliquid funds pulled in $24.42 million on August 27, showing that institutional demand is broadening beyond the top two assets.

Commodity Environment

Brent at $88.35: 6% Weekly Loss, but Diplomacy Remains Locked

Oil closes the week with clear losses: Brent trades in the $88.35–$89.45 range, down 5.3%–6.4% for the week, while WTI trades at $83.28, down 4.3% weekly; both benchmarks broke two-week winning streaks. The primary driver behind the decline was the agreement between Iran and Oman regarding strait traffic management and revenue sharing.

However, the foundation of this optimism is fragile. According to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter, the Trump administration has repeatedly informed mediators that it has no interest in reviving the June accord, complicating diplomatic efforts to resume talks. The White House confirmed on Thursday that despite diplomatic initiatives by other nations, the US is not conducting talks with Iran. In short, while a framework is forming on the ground, the main party at the table has yet to join.

Thadeu Dos Santos from Infinox provides the analytical framework: Oil prices will likely remain contingent on the pace of negotiations, any credible progress, and shifts in the security environment around Hormuz. A clearer path toward an agreement could renew downside pressure as supply expectations improve; conversely, any escalation in tensions or new incidents could rapidly reignite the upward trend in crude.

Technically, Brent returned to a bullish setup at $88.35, but the RSI sits in neutral territory at 49.7, indicating weak momentum.

An additional layer of risk emerged on the geopolitical front: Moscow warned it could strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine in response to Kyiv conducting strikes on Russian territory using British-made long-range cruise missiles. Meanwhile, Trump stated that Putin would not attack a NATO country, downplaying reports that CIA Director Ratcliffe warned Russian officials against such an attack this week.

Energy equities were negatively impacted by the drop in crude: XOM dropped 5.8% weekly to $156.44, while CVX lost 2.9% weekly to trade at $199.77.

Equities Front

Weekly Gains Led by Nvidia Tailwind, but Caution Prevails Ahead of Warsh

Equity markets are showing caution today following a strong Thursday driven by the Nvidia rally. The three main indexes are on track to close the week in positive territory; a positive close for the Dow would mark its first winning week in three.

Real-time data places the S&P 500 at 7,730.99 points, just 1.1% off its record high and up 1.2% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 sits at 29,641 points, holding a weekly gain of 1.5% and a monthly gain of 6.8%. The VIX fell to 14.51, down 20.3% for the month.

Asian markets traded mixed on Friday: The Nikkei rose 0.19%–0.7%, Taiwan gained 1.2% (Nvidia effect), whereas the KOSPI dropped 1.16%–1.34% (while retaining a 20.5% monthly gain), and the Hang Seng fell 0.3%.

On a stock level, Nvidia reached $227.98, coming within 3.5% of its 52-week high and securing a 15.7% monthly gain. MSFT rose to $505.06, up 28.6% monthly to stand as the strongest big-tech stock (RSI overbought at 70.9). TSM gained 2.30% to $427.30, and TSLA rose 2.60% to $354.81. Conversely, AMZN dropped 1.5% weekly to $256.26, ASML is losing momentum at $1,735, and META stands at $571.10, 7.8% below its 200-day moving average. In Europe, the CAC 40 decoupled, falling 1.68%.

Lombard Odier remains positive on Chinese equities, listing China alongside South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil as preferred emerging markets. According to the bank, onshore equities provide more direct exposure to AI infrastructure, semiconductor localization, and policy-driven investment, whereas offshore equities offer attractive valuations and potential gains from improving sentiment.

In the UK, there is a technical chart to monitor: The 10-year gilt yield rose from its pre-war low of 4.23% to 5.20% in May, its highest level since mid-2008. A break above 5.20% would bring the 2008 high of 5.28% into focus, followed by 5.62% (2007) and 5.88% (1999); the potential catalyst is the autumn budget in October.

Ultimately, Warsh’s speech will set the direction for today and likely for September as a whole.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
August 28	Friday (today)	Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as chair (around 17:00 TRT) — the main event of the week and month; massive crypto options expiry on the same day
August 28	Friday (today)	Final session before the last trading day of August; one more day of inflows for bitcoin ETFs will break the record set in October 2025 as the largest inflow month since launch
Fed Voices	—	Kansas City Fed President Schmid described inflation as “still stubborn and sticky” and said, “I don’t know what we are restricting with the interest rate policy we have today”; Goolsbee: “Everyone should be on alert, my biggest short-term fear is that inflation is not under control”
On the Frontlines	—	Iran and Oman agreed on strait traffic management and revenue sharing; however, according to the WSJ, the Trump administration repeatedly informed mediators it is not interested in reviving the June accord, and the White House confirmed no talks are taking place
September	—	September 15–16 Fed FOMC (~35% hike probability, fully priced by Dec); September 17–18 BOJ; September 9 Treasury buyback program begins, alongside Apple iPhone launch
October	—	UK Autumn Budget — if 10-year gilt yield breaks above 5.20%, technical targets of 5.28% and subsequently 5.62% come into play
Trade	—	Trump administration considering new tariffs on semiconductors used in the US; Trump also signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America”
Investment	—	SK Hynix constructing a new plant in Indiana; according to CEO Kwak, the facility will turn the state into “a key HBM production base in America” by 2030