Global Market Analysis: Nvidia Earnings Surprise, Hot PCE Data, and Macro Trends

Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Daily briefing on tech earnings, rising Fed rate hike bets, Asian central bank tightening, and physical commodity gains.

Executive Summary

Nvidia Crushes Expectations: Revenue Doubles, 2028 Guidance Shocks. In the quarter ending June, revenue surged more than two-fold to $96.22B, while net profit spiked over 100% to $53.95B ($2.22 per share)—beating estimates of $92.28B in revenue and $2.09 EPS. The real surprise arrived via guidance: CFO Kress stated they expect revenue to grow 70% in FY2028, far outpacing the 44% analyst consensus. Shares climbed 4.7% to $219.53 in extended trading.

Huang’s Message is Clear: “Demand is super strong, but accelerating at an unbelievable pace. AI is now working and generating productive output.” The Nvidia CEO added that a lack of compute capacity is holding them back, noting that “now every country wants to get involved.” He also revealed that the Amazon deal includes “millions of CPUs” alongside 2M GPUs.

Growing Shadows: Customers are building their own silicon. OpenAI unveiled its first AI chip, Jalapeño, reporting 1.5x to 1.9x higher output per watt and lower latency compared to selected Nvidia systems across three public models. Google, AWS, and Meta are also developing proprietary chips. As shovels get expensive, miners begin forging their own.

Hot PCE Drives Rate Hike Bets. Headline PCE printed at 0.2% MoM and 3.7% YoY—both 0.1 percentage point above expectations, with the annual rate flat against June. Core PCE met expectations at 3.3%, but remains well above target. The inflation floor looks firmer heading into the September FOMC. Probability for a September rate hike climbed from 36% to 40%.

Crypto Weekly Gains Evaporate. Bitcoin trades at $78,678 (-0.47% daily); as rolling windows leave behind last week’s pop, 7-day gains collapsed from 23% to 14% in a single day, while Ether’s dropped from 29% to 11%. Short-duration Treasuries sold off overnight as traders priced in higher rate odds—working against the low-yield environment that carried Bitcoin above $68,000.

Market Depth Confirms Rally Authenticity. On August 18, when the rally launched, average 0.5% market depth across major spot exchanges stood at ~$9.6M—aligning with the Jan 1 record of $9M and topping the $8M level seen during October’s $120k peak. Conclusion: The ~24% move toward $80,000 reflects genuine absorbed demand rather than a low-liquidity squeeze.

Oil Drops for a Fourth Day: Brent at $86.46. Iran’s IRGC announced an agreement with Oman regarding the sharing of the Strait of Hormuz and revenue distribution; Qatar’s Prime Minister visits Tehran today. However, a quiet crisis looms in middle distillates: US distillate stocks fell 2.2M barrels to 103.4M barrels—the lowest level on record for this time of year according to ANZ. Meanwhile, Wheat surged 10.3% on the week to $753.25.

Key Takeaways & Main Agenda

Nvidia Beats, But Clients Build Proprietary Silicon

The week’s most anticipated event delivered figures well above consensus. Nvidia doubled its quarterly revenue to $96.22B (vs. $92.28B expected), marking its widest top-line beat in two years. Net income reached $53.95B or $2.22 per share (vs. $2.09 expected).

The major catalyst was guidance: CFO Colette Kress projected 70% top-line growth for FY2028 versus the 44% analyst estimate. Jensen Huang set a bullish tone on Mad Money, stating that compute constraints remain the primary bottleneck and highlighting that Amazon will integrate Nvidia architecture into robotics. This accelerates Nvidia’s entry into the host CPU market via Vera, directly challenging Intel and AMD’s core footprint.

Conversely, structural headwinds are emerging: OpenAI introduced Jalapeño, claiming 1.5x–1.9x better power efficiency per watt over select Nvidia setups. As Google, AWS, and Meta continue expanding custom ASIC pipelines, Nvidia’s primary buyer base is rapidly turning into its primary competitor. Elsewhere in tech, quarterly results stayed resilient: Salesforce jumped 12-13%, Okta surged 19-20%, and CrowdStrike gained over 10%.

Hot PCE: Rate Expectations Shift Against Risk Assets

July PCE data printed firmer than expected. Headline PCE rose 3.7% YoY (vs. 3.6% est.), staying unchanged from June. Monthly PCE increased 0.2% (vs. 0.1% est.). Core PCE matched forecasts at 3.3%, yet both metrics remain elevated above the Fed’s 2% target.

Société Générale analysts noted that while core figures aligned with broad estimates, underlying details showed persistent firmness. Per CME FedWatch, odds of a September rate hike rose to 40% (up from 36%), while probability of a pause dropped to 60%. Short-term Treasuries sold off as market participants priced in tighter monetary conditions, threatening crypto’s recent momentum. 10-year Treasury yields eased 1.5 bps to 4.647%. Attention now turns to the upcoming Warsh speech at Jackson Hole—regarded by Westpac analysts as the market’s “ultimate test.”

Jackson Hole Tension: Who Prices Money?

A core debate surrounds US monetary policy: How interventionist should policymakers be when determining interest rates? Kevin Warsh favors stepping back from intrusive forward guidance to let market mechanics price assets, while Scott Bessent has utilized unconventional operational tools to stabilize market functionality.

Bessent announced plans to double long-term debt buybacks, arguing that recent yield spikes on 30-year paper were detached from fundamentals. However, institutional portfolio managers express concern that attempting to cap yields without fiscal consolidation may undermine Treasury credibility. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller characterized the intervention as “price control rather than liquidity management,” warning of structural risks.

Hormuz Deal Signals vs. Distillate Supply Strain

Diplomatic movement near the Strait of Hormuz brought temporary relief to crude markets. The IRGC confirmed an operational agreement with Oman regarding maritime control and revenue splitting. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi indicated vessels will enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian territorial waters and exit via a joint corridor.

Crude responded with a 4-day decline: Brent slipped to $86.46–$87.43, while WTI fell for a fifth session to $81.75–$81.86. However, ING warns that bilateral agreements will not normalize transit flows until US blockades on Iranian ports ease.

Furthermore, middle distillate supplies face extreme tightness: combined refinery damage in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining facilities pushed US distillate inventories down by 2.2M barrels to 103.4M barrels—a historic low for late August. Because diesel powers commercial transport, construction, and agriculture, elevated distillate prices may offset the disinflationary impact of lower crude.

Macro Framework

Asian Central Banks Tighten as Fed Holds

Central bank divergence is accelerating in Asia:

• Bank of Korea (BOK): Hiked its base rate by 25 bps to 3.00%—its second consecutive increase and highest level since January 2025—after July core CPI reached 2.6%. The KRW appreciated 0.48% to 1,378.7 per USD.
• Bank of Japan (BOJ): Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized the necessity of timely rate hikes to counter upside price risks, preserving flexible policy stance. Markets currently price an 86–87% probability of a September BOJ hike. The JPY trades flat near 159.30.
• Macro Metrics: US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 1-week highs at 99.12. EUR/USD traded at 1.1662, GBP/USD at 1.3591, and AUD/USD at 0.7186. China’s July industrial profits slowed to 11.2% YoY growth.

Commodities: Gold Rebounds, Wheat Surges, Copper Near Highs

• Precious Metals: Gold rebounded 1.67% to $4,674.90/oz following Wednesday’s PCE dip, eyeing a record monthly gain of 15.8% (RSI: 72.9). Silver advanced 1.42% to $68.99/oz (+20.4% monthly).
• Industrial Metals: Copper gained 1.73% to $6.7085/lb, trading within 0.61% of its 52-week peak.
• Agriculture: Wheat spiked 3.11% to $753.25 (+10.3% weekly, +13.7% monthly), touching a 52-week high of $767.50 (RSI: 76.8). Coffee retraced 10.2% to $357.60, while Cocoa held at $5,817.
• Energy Equities: ExxonMobil (XOM) fell 1.53% to $158.19 (-4% weekly); Chevron (CVX) traded at $200.21 (-2.7% weekly).

Crypto Markets

Bitcoin ($78,678): Deep Order Books vs. High Leverage

Bitcoin retraced slightly to $78,678 (-0.47% daily) after hitting a 3-month peak of $81,265 on Tuesday. Altcoins showed divergence: Solana (SOL) jumped 4.25% to $101.01 (+15.2% weekly), Ether (ETH) rose 0.88% to $2,485.86, while XRP dropped 2.58% to $1,4008.

Metric / Indicator	Value / Status	Analysis
0.5% Market Depth	~$9.6M	Matches Jan 1 high ($9M); confirms spot-demand backing behind the $80k move.
CryptoQuant Bull Score	80 / 100	Up from 30 in 1 week; 8 of 10 structural indicators flash bullish signals.
365-Day Moving Average	$83,000	Primary overhead technical resistance level required to confirm macro bull continuation.
Unrealized Profit Margin	20.5%	Reached highest level since June 2025, increasing short-term profit-taking risks.
Exchange Inflows	~53k BTC / 1.7M ETH	Elevated net deposits suggest distribution and hedging activity near highs.

Equity Overview

Asian indices gained following Nvidia’s earnings print: KOSPI rose 1.2–2.5% to 6,889, Taiwan’s TAIEX added 0.9%, while the Nikkei fell 0.27%. US futures opened higher, led by Nasdaq 100 futures (+0.8%).

• Notable Movers: Salesforce (+12-13% post-market), Okta (+19-20%), CrowdStrike (+10%), Agilent (+4%). Microsoft (MSFT) sits at $496.37 (+27.8% monthly), Meta at $576.14, Apple at $313.45.
• Downside Developments: Boston Scientific fell 3.4% following a global operational outage linked to a cyberattack. Nike (NKE) trades near multi-year lows, down 51% over the past year.

Weekly Economic & Corporate Calendar

Date	Event / Release	Operational Significance
Aug 27 (Thu)	Jackson Hole Opening	Pre-market earnings: Best Buy, RBC, TD, CIBC.
Aug 27 (Thu)	Post-Market Earnings	Marvell, Workday, Affirm, Gap, Autodesk, Ulta Beauty. Solana SIMD voting closes.
Aug 28 (Fri)	Warsh Speech & Crypto Expiry	Warsh key address at Jackson Hole; major crypto options expiration date.
Sep 9	Treasury Buybacks Launch	Expanded US Treasury debt buyback program begins ($\ge$$4B per operation).
Sep 9	Apple Event	iPhone launch event under incoming CEO John Ternus.
Sep 15–16	FOMC Meeting	Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Sep 17–18	BOJ Policy Meeting	Bank of Japan policy rate decision.