Global Market & Crypto Brief: Yield Surge, Fed Rate Hike Expectations, and Bitcoin’s September Test

Tuesday, September 1, 2026 | Daily briefing on global yield surges, hawkish Fed expectations, commodity inflation, and Bitcoin’s structural test.

Market Summary

The Japanese 10-year bond yield exceeded 3% for the first time since 1996. The global bond sell-off is deepening: the US 10-year yield reached 4.78%, its highest level since January 2025, while German and French futures traded near yields at 15-year highs; Bund futures stood at 15-year lows, and OAT futures dropped to their lowest level since launching in 2012. There is now a sense of resignation, mixed with helplessness, regarding rising interest rates.

The probability of a September rate hike shot up to 64–66%. Prior to Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, this rate was at 35–36%; the probability of a rate hike by December stands at 89%. The macro composition is becoming increasingly challenging for duration and risk assets; hawkish monetary policy, renewed geopolitical and inflation risks, and growing fiscal concerns are combining to maintain upward pressure on global term premiums and long-term yields.

If they do not raise interest rates in September, a dramatic reaction could be seen in the markets, as investors have been pricing in a rate hike for some time. In other words, not raising rates has now become a risk in itself. Meanwhile, Trump stated that he respects Warsh and that he “will do what he has to do”—a striking remark coming from a president who has long advocated for low interest rates.

Bitcoin closed August with a 24% gain, making it the strongest month since November 2024. BTC sits at $79,172 and is oscillating within the $77,200–$79,200 band. MicroStrategy made its first purchase in two months by acquiring $370 million worth of bitcoin last week. Holding near $78,000 following a 23% bounce is more significant than the bounce itself; perpetual futures open interest is at its lowest level since May, and ETFs experienced their strongest demand week since October 2025.

However, flows have reversed. Following $924 million in bitcoin ETF inflows over nine consecutive positive sessions, Friday’s $202 million outflow broke the streak; since then, $82,000 has been rejected on every attempt. On Monday, inflows returned ($216.7 million, 95% of which went to BlackRock). The main warning comes from the options market: there is almost no meaningful put option protection below $70,000, with positioning heavily concentrated in call options.

Oil continues its upward trend after a tanker was hit. Brent closed up 2.71% at $90.49 on Monday and moved above $91 in Asia on Tuesday; WTI rose to $87. On Monday, a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by three unidentified projectiles. Wall Street closed the month in green but ended Monday in negative territory: the Dow fell 0.70%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.33%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.12%. PG&E plunged 20.1% due to wildfire liability regulatory developments in California.

Main Agenda

Japan’s 10-Year Yield Crosses 3%: On the first trading day of September, a historical threshold was broken in bond markets. The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond reached 3%, a level last seen in 1996. This is not merely a routine technical move, as Japanese borrowing costs have served as a reliable anchor for global markets for years. The rise is global: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.78% in Tokyo trading, reaching its highest level since January 2025; French and German futures extended the sell-off that previously pushed yields to 15-year highs. The sell-off stems from three simultaneous drivers. First, energy: rising oil prices and escalating US-Iran tensions feed inflation concerns. Second, monetary policy: Warsh reset expectations, and the market is now seriously pricing in a September rate hike. Third, supply: surging public debt is causing investors to demand higher premiums to lend. This third element is the most persistent and quantifiable: according to a measure published by the New York Fed, the 10-year Treasury term premium increased from approximately 26 basis points in January 2025 to over 80 basis points in June—more than tripling. Since late June, while nominal 10-year yields rose by approximately 36 basis points, breakeven inflation expectations increased by only 9 basis points; this indicates that the increase stems from a mix of term premium and real yields rather than inflation expectations. Some investors, however, point out that much of the rise in global yields is driven by higher real yields—meaning better growth expectations—and argue that this might not be entirely negative for equities.

Rate Hike Now the Base Case: ‘Reaction Could Be Dramatic If They Don’t Raise’. Warsh’s speech on Friday completely altered market expectations within days. According to Fed funds futures, the probability of a quarter-point rate hike in September rose to 64–66%, up from 35–36% prior to the speech. The probability of a hike by December stands at 89%. Re-pricing at this pace highlights how clearly the market received Warsh’s message. The core of the speech was that inflation remains too high and the Fed’s long-standing practice of forward guidance has “outstayed its welcome.” Investors are reassessing Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole and what they could mean for interest rates and inflation; if they do not hike in September, a dramatic market reaction could occur because the market has prepared for a rate increase. The expectation has become so entrenched that maintaining current rates now poses a risk. On the political front, there was a surprise development: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he holds great respect for Warsh and that Warsh “will do what he has to do” regarding interest rates. This is a notable statement from a president who has long advocated for low interest rates and criticized his predecessor Powell for not cutting rates fast enough. The rest of the week is focused entirely on labor data: JOLTS job openings data today, ADP private employment on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Expectations point to payroll growth between 50k and 58k in August, with unemployment holding at 4.1%; July had seen a shock drop of 23k. Additionally, troubling background data arrived: in BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision, total nonfarm employment for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, was revised down by an additional 79k, marking the fourth consecutive annual downward revision following last year’s record 911k adjustment. A weaker-than-expected labor report could reduce tightening expectations and offer relief to risk assets.

Bitcoin’s September Test: Solid Structure, But Lacks Protection. Bitcoin closed August with a 24% gain, marking its strongest month since November 2024. It trades at $79,172 and has oscillated in a tight band between $77,200 and $79,200 over the past 24 hours. Structurally, the picture looks healthier than in previous months. Holding near $78,000 following a 23% bounce is more significant than the bounce itself. Perpetual futures open interest is at its lowest level since May, and US spot bitcoin funds recorded their strongest demand week since October 2025. This combination grounds August’s move in spot demand without leaving a crowded set of leveraged long positions to unwind. Institutional demand persists: bitcoin funds saw $216.7 million in inflows on Monday; ether funds recorded their 11th consecutive inflow session, while XRP and Solana funds logged their 10th straight session of inflows. MicroStrategy also made its first purchase in two months, buying $370 million worth of bitcoin last week. However, the downside risk remains clearly defined. The market is alert but lacks short-term directional conviction. On the technical side, five key risk themes stand out for September. First, the Fed: hike expectations moved above 60%, and higher interest rates could drain liquidity and weigh on risk assets. Second, oil: Brent crossing $90 complicates the inflation outlook. Third, the resistance zone: Bitcoin briefly lost its 50-week exponential moving average (around $77,269) on a weekly close basis but defended it; the 50-week simple moving average sits at $80,307. More importantly, according to Glassnode, the cost basis for approximately 1.05 million bitcoin held by long-term holders ranges between $83,000 and $86,000, creating a significant supply wall. Fourth, the monthly close: according to Rekt Capital, the macro downtrend resistance above $80,000 is decisive; remaining below it means bitcoin continues its series of lower highs on the macro chart. Fifth: CryptoQuant data shows that wallets holding more than 100 bitcoin accumulated roughly 60k bitcoin in August, while holders of 1–100 bitcoin sold 33k and holders of less than 1 bitcoin sold 14k. In short, large investors absorbed the supply relinquished by smaller holders. This is constructive as long as large holders continue buying; however, if they begin selling recent accumulations below $80,000, demand structure could weaken rapidly.

Red Flag: Almost No Protection Below $70,000. The single most important warning on the crypto side this month comes from the options market and warrants close attention. According to analysts, the options market currently exhibits almost no meaningful put option protection below $70,000, whereas positioning is heavily concentrated in call options. Why this matters can be understood through reverse logic: a well-protected market is generally better prepared for downside shocks; the real danger arises when investors position exclusively for further upside and see no reason to purchase downside protection. If bitcoin drops suddenly, traders, market makers, and large players would be forced to hedge or reduce exposure after the move has already begun, potentially accelerating the decline. A breakdown with insufficient put protection beneath the market could create an unstable environment, making a sharp drop to $64,000—or lower—unavoidable. The calculated monthly pivot point for September stands at $74,080 for bitcoin, $2,288 for ether, $1.3555 for XRP, and $94.74 for Solana. Theoretically, if the trend is strong and set to continue, these pivot points should act as turning and support zones within a reasonable margin of error. The gamma map defines two distinct zones: a clear negative gamma region exists between $80,500 and $83,000, with the strongest negative reading near $81,800, making this the key breakout area. To the downside, below approximately $76,000, the structure turns increasingly positive gamma, with the strongest positive concentration around $73,000; this means market maker hedging should provide stabilization as bitcoin moves lower, designating the $73,000–$74,080 region as the main downside pivot and support area. Open interest data appears softer today; the scenario could unfold as a fake move down toward $76,000–$76,500, followed by a final rally toward $82,000–$83,000. Leverage data also shows perpetual traders are now predominantly positioned short and expecting a deeper correction, keeping the possibility of a trap below $77,000 active. In summary, bitcoin could first rise toward $82,000–$83,000 in September, but the lack of underlying protection means the downside could be severe if something breaks in equity or bond markets.

Macro Framework

Europe Gambles on Winter, Bessent Presses Tokyo

Europe enters autumn facing a challenging outlook. The continent’s benchmark natural gas price recorded its highest close in 3.5 years on Monday, while equities hit all-time lows for this time of year in records dating back to 2011. The mechanism behind the issue is critical: gas bidding caused by Qatari supply disruptions from the Iran war deepened a backwardation structure where near-term prices trade above winter prices. This means stockpiling gas offers little economic incentive, leaving Europe to hope that an exceptionally cold wave does not follow the scorching summer. Winter will be a gamble. Eurozone inflation data scheduled for release today is expected to reinforce expectations of an ECB rate hike at its September 9–10 meeting. Meanwhile, Japan faces direct pressure from the US: Bessent met with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo, emphasizing the necessity of rate hikes. His statement to CNBC was notable: I have information that the market does not have, and I believe the Japanese government and the BOJ will take actions that lead to a stronger yen. Following this remark, the yen pulled back from above 160 to 159.87, and the Japanese 10-year yield crossed 3%. Elsewhere on the central bank calendar, a second consecutive rate hike is priced in for New Zealand this week, whereas the Bank of Canada is expected to hold steady due to economic damage from the trade war with the US. The dollar index trades around 99.43; because the yield increase is broad-based globally, it provides only limited support to the dollar. The euro stands at 1.1613, sterling at 1.3548, and the Australian dollar at 0.7174. A thought-provoking note from Jackson Hole: Princeton’s Markus Brunnermeier presented central bankers with dystopian scenarios on how artificial intelligence could transform financial markets. According to Brunnermeier, because AI processes information far better than humans, it will know what central bankers intend to do with near certainty before they act and build strategies to circumvent those actions; he calls this “asymmetrical understanding” and argues that transparency must be reconsidered, perhaps requiring greater opacity. Warsh took an optimistic stance on AI in his speech, posing two questions: Will AI implementation lead to a meaningful and sustained productivity boost across the broader economy, and if so, when?

Cocoa and Wheat Push Toward Records, Copper Near Peak

In commodities, the food inflation narrative is gaining strength. Cocoa rose 1.77% to $6,650, posting a weekly gain of 14.3% and a monthly gain of 23.2%, trading 28.5% above its 200-day moving average; RSI sits near overbought levels at 69.9, with %B at 117, significantly above the upper band. Wheat rose 2.58% to $776, recording weekly gains of 13.2% and monthly gains of 21.4%, standing just 0.51% away from its 52-week high. Driving the rise in wheat is intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with prices trading near three-year highs. The strength in these two commodities creates an inflation channel independent of oil, serving as an additional factor complicating central banks’ path. In industrial metals, copper jumped 2.11% to $6.7325, sitting just 0.26% below its 52-week high; it maintains a bullish alignment 12.6% above its 200-day moving average. Precious metals remain under post-Warsh pressure: Gold recovered 1.40% to $4,493 but finished the week down 3.1% after hitting its lowest level since August 19 on Monday; its monthly gain stands at 11%. Gold was pressured by Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, higher oil prices brought on by renewed tensions in Hormuz, and rising inflation expectations. While a single rate hike should not be a game-changer for gold, two or three hikes could be. Silver rose 2.02% to $67.56, while palladium advanced to $1,380.50. Energy equities benefited from oil’s rise: CVX gained 2.12% to $206.14, sitting 2.3% below its 52-week high, while XOM traded at $160.95; energy was the top-performing sector among the S&P 500’s 11 main sectors on Monday.

Crypto

Bitcoin $79,172: The $80k–$86k Band Will Shape September

Bitcoin trades at $79,172, up 1.51% on the day and 24.54% on the month; RSI sits in overbought territory at 71.9, with price 10% above its 200-day moving average. On the altcoin side, ENS stood out, jumping 10.16% to $6.29 with a 47.3% monthly gain; ETHFI rose 5.93% for a 46.1% monthly gain; Ether trades at $2,484 (up 31.8% monthly); and Solana sits at $104.34 (up 41.7% monthly). ENA holds onto a 70.6% monthly gain. XRP trades at $1.3943 but is down 2.8% on the week.

The decisive range for September is $80,000–$86,000. On the lower boundary, three reference points exist: the 50-week exponential moving average at roughly $77,269 (briefly lost on a weekly close basis but defended), the 50-week simple moving average at $80,307, and Rekt Capital’s macro downtrend resistance just above $80,000. On the upper boundary, the primary obstacle is supply: according to Glassnode, the cost basis for ~1.05 million bitcoin held by long-term holders ranges between $83,000 and $86,000, with order books displaying heavy ask liquidity extending up to $86,000. Bitcoin needs more than a brief move above $80,000; buyers must possess sufficient momentum to absorb current supply and establish a sustainable breakout. Reclaiming this region strengthens the bullish structure; another rejection leaves bitcoin pinned below resistance constraining its recovery.

A structural shift pointing toward institutionalization is unfolding in XRP. According to CoinGlass data, total XRP open interest fell from 2.77 billion tokens on August 17 to approximately 2.34 billion tokens on August 31 (a 16% drop), even as XRP’s price rose ~40% from $0.99 to $1.38 over the same period. Traders de-leveraged throughout the rally. However, CME defied this trend: on the regulated US futures exchange heavily utilized by professional trading firms and asset managers, XRP open interest grew 36%, rising from 284 million to approximately 387 million tokens. Across the rest of the market, positions fell by roughly 533 million XRP (21%) over two weeks. Consequently, CME now accounts for approximately 17% of total XRP futures exposure, up from roughly 10% in mid-August. This shift is notable because institutional investors often prefer or require regulated venues over offshore crypto exchanges; CME’s growing share serves as a raw indicator of professional capital entering XRP futures. The timing is interesting: traders typically migrate to regulated venues when playing defense, yet this shift occurred while price rose nearly 40% in two weeks. CFTC data through August 25 shows leveraged funds holding 3,206 short positions against 892 long positions, leaving the group net short by roughly 116 million XRP equivalents—more than double the ~57 million net short position from a week prior. In contrast, dealer intermediaries were net long ~60 million XRP, and asset managers added roughly 28 million. The CFTC data does not indicate whether hedge funds are betting directly against XRP or using futures to hedge positions held elsewhere, so the metric should not be read simply as a bearish bet. All of this takes place ahead of the procedural vote on the Clarity Act in mid-September; when the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in May, XRP jumped roughly 5%.

Equity Front

September Starts Weak: ‘Market Feeling the Weight of Yields’

Wall Street closed August with monthly gains but ended the final session lower, entering September cautiously. On Monday, the Dow fell 374.09 points (0.70%) to 53,185.90, the S&P 500 slipped 0.33% to 7,686.14, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.12% to 26,370.89. Monthly performance remained positive: the S&P 500 gained 2.6%, the Nasdaq 3.9%, and the Dow 1.3% (marking its fifth consecutive monthly gain); the MSCI World Index rose 2.6%. Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital noted: This is a market starting to feel the weight of rising yields.Cardillo also highlighted that markets are entering a historically challenging month for equities. Goldman Sachs traders echoed this caution, noting that despite entering the session less than 115 basis points from all-time highs, market indicators exhibit signs of stress; investors are backing up their cautious stance through portfolio risk allocations.

By sector, energy led gains on Monday, with Halliburton and Valero both rising 1.9%. Utilities faced heavy selling: PG&E crashed 20.1%—its largest percentage loss in over six years—after a California Senate bill amendment failed to resolve grid operators’ exposure to wildfire liability. Among individual movers, TSLA jumped 5.51% to $367.95 (up 18.2% monthly), NVDA rose 1.48% to $220.78, and CVX gained 2.12% to $206.14; conversely, AMZN fell 2.50% to $259.77 and MSFT dropped 1.22% to $507.29. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.99% to 25,312, weighed down by Shein’s weak public debrief: the stock dropped 8–9% on its first trading day in Hong Kong. The company raised HKD 13.60 billion ($1.74 billion) by selling roughly 280 million shares; the final price settled at HKD 48.56, below the maximum offer price of HKD 49.50. This values Shein at approximately $26.5 billion, down from its $100 billion private valuation in 2022. Tariff and customs revisions in the US and Europe eroded key pillars of its low-cost business model.

Calendar of the Week

Date	Day	Event / Indicator
Sep 1	Tuesday (Today)	Eurozone Flash CPI — Expected to reinforce expectations of an ECB hike next week; US JOLTS Job Openings & ISM Manufacturing Index
Sep 2	Wednesday	US ADP Private Employment; RBNZ Rate Decision — Second consecutive hike priced in; Bank of Canada — Expected to hold
Sep 3	Thursday	US Weekly Jobless Claims; Services PMI Data
Sep 4	Friday	US August Nonfarm Payrolls — Final major labor release before September FOMC; expectations set at 50k–58k addition with unemployment flat at 4.1%
Revision	—	BLS Preliminary Benchmark Revision: Total nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, revised down by an additional 79k; fourth consecutive annual downward adjustment
Geopolitics	—	Trump issued fresh attack threats against Iran; a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by three projectiles on Monday (southern route near Oman coast, no injuries). Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterated preference for a negotiated solution
Sep 9–10	—	ECB Meeting (hike strongly priced in) & launch of Treasury’s expanded buyback program; US CPI on Sep 11
Sep 16–18	—	Fed FOMC Meeting (hike probability at 64–66%, 89% by December) & BOJ Meeting; Clarity Act procedural vote on Sep 15