Global Markets Shaken by Surging Yields and Energy Shock: Weekly Macro & Crypto Briefing

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Daily briefing on surging multi-year bond yields, energy supply shocks, tech valuation scrutiny, and Bitcoin’s gamma pivot.

Daily Summary

The market is now trading based on the daily direction of interest rates; as long as oil and bond yields rise together, the pressure on equities will persist. Today’s U.S. consumer confidence and JOLTS data will provide the initial signals ahead of tomorrow’s PCE and Friday’s employment report. We expect the dollar to remain strong above 101, gold to test the 4,100 region, and rate-sensitive growth names in equities to continue lagging. In Bitcoin, a $2.4 billion weekly ETF inflow is absorbing the decline, but since the options structure has dropped below the zero-gamma point, we expect volatility to increase; if the 82,000–83,000 band holds, a move toward 85,000 is on the table, whereas slipping below it brings 79,700 into focus. On the Turkey side, the BIST 100 entering oversold territory with an RSI of 28 and a 14% monthly loss should be closely monitored.

• Australia raised rates to a 15-year high and signaled further hikes. The central bank unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.60%, citing inflation being too high, the widening Middle East conflict, and global energy prices being much higher than assumed. This is the fourth hike this year, totaling 100 basis points.
• The 10-year yield hit 5.274%, the highest since 2007. It rose by nearly 50 basis points in September, marking the sharpest monthly sell-off in two years; the 2-year is on the verge of 5% with a 57-basis-point increase, and the 30-year stands at 5.56%. The market is pricing in three more hikes through the middle of next year.
• Anthropic is preparing for an IPO with a $518 billion investment plan. According to the prospectus, the valuation could exceed $2 trillion; the company posted a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, with one-quarter of its revenue coming from just two customers. The IPO will take place after the midterm elections.
• Equities surrendered to interest rates. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq 0.9%, and the Dow 0.7%; losses would have been larger were it not for Nvidia’s $150 billion share buyback increase. The VIX rose 8% to 16.1.
• Brent rose for a second day to $106.6–$107. According to Kpler, Gulf exports reached 12.8 million barrels, the highest since February, but a large portion of the increase relies on costly methods like ship-to-ship transfers. The United States is considering expanding the sale of red-dyed diesel instead of a diesel export ban.
• Gold dropped 3.4% to $4,174. During the session, it touched $1,111, its lowest level since August 5; the month-to-date loss stands at 10.3%. Fund managers’ net long positions are at their lowest level since late July.
• Bitcoin is holding at $83,900. Inflows into ETFs reached $2.4 billion in the five sessions leading up to September 25, marking the strongest week since October 2025. However, net gamma in the options structure has dropped below the zero point, meaning volatility could pick up. Zcash fell 12%.
• Today: U.S. September consumer confidence and August JOLTS; tomorrow: PCE; Thursday: ISM; Friday: employment. AMD acquired World Labs for $8.2 billion.

The Story of the Day

Entering a new environment

The sentence setting the tone for the markets on Tuesday came from Angus Hui, Head of Fixed Income at Fullerton Fund Management in Singapore: we are entering a new environment, and bond yields are highly unlikely to return to those good old days when they were very, very low. The numbers back this up. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.274% on Monday, hitting a 19-year high and climbing nearly 50 basis points throughout September—marking the heaviest monthly sell-off in two years. The 2-year yield moved even more aggressively, surging over 57 basis points this month to push against the 5% threshold, as traders calculate that U.S. growth and inflation will prompt three more Fed rate hikes by mid-next year. The 30-year sits at 5.56%, its highest level since 2004. Sovereign bond yields are the anchor of global markets: they serve as the reference price for investing in risky equities and act as the benchmark for mortgages and corporate borrowing. High interest rates mean pressure on government, corporate, and household budgets; the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.50%, the highest level since April 2024.

What is striking is that the market is more hawkish than the Fed itself. Evangelos Assimakos, Investment Director at Rathbones, puts it plainly: the market is definitely more hawkish than the Fed; the Fed has been quite calm, with 12 out of 18 members projecting just one hike by year-end, whereas the market expects two. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a hike at the end of October has climbed above 70%, compared to 57% a week ago. Brent Schutte from Northwestern Mutual points out the contradiction on the equity side: despite the broad-based strength of the economy, equity markets appear worried about the potential future consequences of high rates, and daily movements in interest rates are increasingly dictating overall market performance. Schutte also reminds investors of the flip side of the coin: if the Fed keeps inflation under control, bonds currently offer some of the most attractive entry points in nearly two decades. This echoes what major bond fund managers were saying last week; the difference is that the cautious tone of back then is now turning into the language of opportunity.

Australia takes its turn

The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to a 15-year high of 4.60% and stated it stands ready to hike further if necessary. This is the bank’s fourth hike this year, totaling 100 basis points. The statement read like official confirmation of the energy-inflation chain we have discussed in recent weeks: some of the upside risks flagged at the August meeting are materializing, the Middle East conflict has widened, and global energy prices are much higher than assumed; additionally, artificial intelligence-driven demand is sparking rapid price increases in tech products. The bank stated it will continue to do whatever is necessary to return inflation to its target range, including further raising the policy rate. The Australian dollar briefly rose to 0.7029 following the decision before trimming some gains to trade around 0.70; the market had priced in the hike ahead of time, with the core message being the emphasis that “more may follow.” Meanwhile, a different debate is unfolding in Japan: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told her U.S. counterpart that Prime Minister Takaichi is “not a reflationist” and that a weak yen is problematic for the country, adding that she will maintain communication with the U.S. Treasury. This statement followed Bessent’s remark that Tokyo’s priority should be fighting inflation rather than stimulating growth. Takaichi’s spending plans had sparked concerns over debt sustainability and created a weaker yen, driving Japanese bond yields to multi-decade highs.

Anthropic: A $518 billion bet

According to a prospectus seen by Reuters, Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, compute, and infrastructure over the coming years, framing it as a bet that artificial intelligence will transform the global economy more fundamentally than industrialization, electricity, and the internet. The IPO is expected to follow the midterm elections in November and could value the company at over $2 trillion—more than double its $965 billion valuation in May’s funding round. The other side of the ledger is heavy: the company reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, of which approximately $34 billion was an accounting expense tied to financing that can later convert into equity, meaning it was not a cash outflow; excluding impairment charges linked to past funding rounds, the operating loss exceeded $8 billion. Revenue surged 12-fold last year to approach $4.6 billion, but nearly a quarter of it comes from just two customers, and the company warns that many of its largest clients are not bound by long-term contracts. At the end of 2025, it held $20.28 billion in cash and short-term investments.

The headline of Reuters’ morning note encapsulates the contradiction carried by this IPO: our products could end all human life, buy our stock. Earlier this month, a researcher working at Anthropic resigned with a warning that the pace of AI development likely poses an existential threat within a decade, with another researcher at the company placing the probability of human extinction at over 10%; CEO Dario Amodei, alongside rivals at OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Microsoft, and xAI, has repeatedly called for slowing down the development pace of increasingly capable AI systems. For now, the market remains calm; a week ago, the Nasdaq was at record highs. Yet the financial backdrop is growing increasingly hostile: 10-year yields in major economies are at multi-decade highs, and investors are betting that the data center construction boom has established an economy capable of sustaining high interest rates for longer. This implies a persistent era where corporations borrow more dearly, households spend more on debt servicing, and government interest bills leave less money for social programs. Anthropic’s debut will test whether enthusiasm for the AI trade can withstand rising rates and mounting scrutiny. An early indicator on the crypto side remains subdued: pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts traded at $1,998 on Tuesday, down 2% in 24 hours and roughly 10% below their September 9 record of $2,211; the price of each contract tracks the company’s expected valuation in trillions of dollars, meaning the market is also pricing it at $2 trillion. These contracts confer no equity rights; they are cash-settled synthetic derivatives.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street surrendered to surging yields on Monday: the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,684, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.08% to 30,277, the Dow lost over 300 points to 51,482, and the Russell 2000 closed down 0.69%. The VIX rose 8.07% to 16.07. The only factor limiting the decline was Nvidia’s massive $150 billion addition to its buyback plan; the stock rose 1.68% to $229, maintaining its upward trend. Rate-sensitive names were hit hardest: Meta dropped 4.79% to $716, bringing its monthly gain down to 25.4%; Tesla fell 3.94% to $357, entering a bear market; AMD lost 3.61% to $608; and Amazon declined 1.41% to $246, putting it down 4% for the month. Moving in the opposite direction, ASML rose 1.58% to $1,771, while energy stocks climbed alongside oil (ExxonMobil up 1.2% to $162.5, Chevron up 0.94% to $206). After the bell, AMD announced the acquisition of World Labs—founded by AI researcher Fei-Fei Li—for $8.2 billion; Li noted that intelligent agents can learn in physics-aware digital worlds before being deployed to the real world, making them significantly safer. Summit Therapeutics surged nearly 20% on news of a $2 billion investment from AstraZeneca. Another notable development is Michael Burry moving up the timeline for his bear thesis on the AI bubble, shifting from short positions to put options on key AI stocks; his rationale is that metrics like the VIX remain extraordinarily low, making options relatively cheap.

Asia followed Wall Street on Tuesday: the Nikkei fell 1.11–1.38% to 64,969, and the Topix dropped 1.67%; the Kospi declined 0.4–0.85% to 6,831; the Hang Seng fell 0.55% to 24,507, remaining in a bear market; and the CSI 300 hovered near a one-year low. The Shanghai Composite ticked up 0.13%, but looked weak with an RSI of 37. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stood as the sole outlier, up 0.16% despite the rate decision. India’s Sensex sat at 72,576 with an RSI of 28, and Taiwan dropped 0.82% to 47,632. U.S. futures traded 0.2–0.42% lower this morning. European markets closed flat with mixed trends: the DAX at 25,374, the CAC at 8,078, and the FTSE at 10,685. On the corporate front, Shein plunged over 11% after reporting a 66.6% drop in second-quarter adjusted net profit to $228 million; the company blamed the profit contraction on a spike in oil prices and freight rates, explaining it chose to absorb these costs rather than pass them on to consumers. This serves as a concrete example of how the energy shock is filtering through corporate balance sheets. The BIST 100 fell 2.38% to 12,593; its weekly loss reached 5.6%, monthly loss hit 14%, and its RSI fell to 28, placing it in oversold territory. Throughout September, the index performed as the weakest major global benchmark.

Foreign Exchange

The dollar index hovered near a two-month high at 101.25–101.27, heading toward a September gain of 1.8–2.1%—its best month since June—with an RSI of 68. Joseph Capurso, Head of FX at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, laid out a clear expectation: the dollar will continue to tick higher because stronger data demonstrating U.S. economic exceptionalism is more likely to arrive, pushing U.S. yields higher relative to others and supporting the greenback. The euro hovered near a three-month low at 1.1360–1.1369; ECB signals pointing to measured steps to suppress inflation failed to support the currency, leaving its RSI at 26 in oversold territory. Sterling stood at 1.3244, not far from its three-month low. The yen traded at 157.26–157.50; Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency diplomat, stated that markets must heed the “very clear” warning issued by Tokyo and Washington last week regarding the yen, keeping traders on high alert for intervention risks. The yen retraced some of Monday’s gains following these remarks. The New Zealand dollar traded at 0.5663 with an RSI of 24, while the Australian dollar sat at 0.70. USD/CHF stood at 0.8329 (RSI 71, overbought) and USD/CAD at 1.4184 (RSI 74). The offshore yuan held flat at 6.705, with the limited outcomes of last week’s U.S.-China summit continuing to weigh. USD/TRY reached a new high at 48.99 with an RSI of 94.

Commodities

Oil rose for a second consecutive day: Brent advanced 1.2–1.4% to $106.56–106.77, and WTI gained 1.0–1.5% to $93.57–93.94. Tim Waterer, Chief Analyst at KCM Trade, summarized the picture neatly: a clearer picture is emerging of higher export volumes coming out of the Gulf, but much of this increase still relies on stopgap measures like ship-to-ship transfers, which are less efficient and more costly than normal operations—keeping crude prices elevated. According to Kpler, major Middle East producer exports rose to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since February. U.S. and Iranian officials held separate talks with mediators to end the seven-month war; the discussions are expected to focus on a modified version of the seven-day proposal Iran submitted to the UN last week. UOB analysts wrote that the dominant risk remains the U.S.–Iran standoff and its impact on energy prices and inflation expectations, noting that Iranian officials expressed pessimism regarding reaching an agreement before the Strait of Hormuz situation escalates further. On the policy front, a new development emerged: the United States is weighing a regulatory adjustment allowing the broader sale of red-dyed diesel as an alternative to a formal export ban, which would allow certain buyers to bypass federal fuel taxes.

Gold suffered a sharp drop: spot gold tumbled as much as 4% intraday on Monday to $1,111—its lowest level since August 5—settling around $4,174 with a month-to-date loss of 10.3%. Adrian Ash, Head of Research at BullionVault, pinpointed the cause succinctly: fresh multi-decade highs in U.S. borrowing costs have finally forced gold to yield. Two-year yields, which are most sensitive to interest rate expectations, surged this month and drove up the opportunity cost of holding gold. According to CFTC data, fund managers’ net long positions in gold fell to their lowest level since late July during the week of September 22; data from the World Gold Council showed a modest outflow of 1.6 tonnes from gold ETFs last week, leaving holdings at 4,249 tonnes. Demand in China softened ahead of the October 1–7 holiday, with domestic premiums slipping to zero late last week. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that central bank purchases and Indian demand ahead of Diwali and the wedding season could provide support, but historically high prices will limit jewelry demand among price-sensitive buyers—particularly farmers, who face headwinds from a weak monsoon. Silver traded at $61.24, down 11.8% for the month; palladium sat at $1,213, down 9.3% and in a bear market; and platinum stood at $1,706. Copper rose 1.05% to $6.64, retaining its upward trend. Natural gas jumped 4.1% to $3.12, securing a weekly gain of 10.1%.

Crypto

Bitcoin held steady around $83,900, having slipped just above $83,100 on Monday to test the bottom of last week’s band before recovering on Tuesday. The source of the pressure is clear: the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since 2007 and Brent approaching $107. Rising guaranteed yields on sovereign debt raise the bar for holding non-yielding assets. Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that under current conditions, a retest of the $82,000 region—where tops formed in May and early September—is entirely expected, adding that a sustained return below $80,000 would serve as a major signal that the market is not yet ready to resume its advance; conversely, if new upside momentum materializes after this consolidation, Bitcoin could break decisively above $90,000. On the support side, institutional demand remains robust: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hauled in roughly $2.4 billion in net inflows across the five sessions leading up to September 25, marking the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. However, momentum is fading, as Monday’s inflow of $31 million marked the smallest day of the recent streak.

On the technical front, a significant regime shift is underway: net gamma exposure in Bitcoin’s options structure has dropped below the zero-gamma pivot point. This means broker positioning has shifted into a less stable gamma environment, where hedging flows can amplify price action rather than smooth it out. While this does not indicate the direction of the next move, it signals that volatility is likely to pick up markedly from here. Liquidation walls built up between $80,000 and $86,000 throughout last week. According to Elliott wave counting, following a five-wave advance toward the $87,000 zone, the price pulled back to the minimum wave-A target, testing the 38.2% retracement level around $82,000 and finding support; if the $82,500–$83,000 band holds, attention should turn to a wave-B recovery, with initial upside targets at $84,400, $85,000, and $85,500. This remains a corrective structure rather than a new impulsive leg higher; a breakdown of support would activate deeper wave-A targets at $81,200 and $79,700. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains above all major moving averages: the 20-day sits at $81,750, the 50-day at $77,527, while the 100-day and 200-day are clustered around $74,000. Among altcoins, ZEC dropped 12% to $1,380, making it the hardest hit among majors; Solana and HYPE lost 3–4%, DOGE fell 3%, and BNB dropped 2%. Among smaller tokens, The Graph rose 18% and Immutable gained 10%, while UNI and BCH fell roughly 10%. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization hovered near $2.86 trillion. On sentiment: the widely watched crypto sentiment index sat at 74 out of 100 on Monday, hovering just below “extreme greed”—a contrast FxPro compares to the 20 days of fear prevailing in the equity market.

Second Story: Goldman’s $100 billion fund enters crypto infrastructure

Goldman Sachs is opening one of its largest Treasury funds—the approximately $100 billion FTIXX—to digital asset firms without needing to create a tokenized version of it. The fund will be offered through Lynq, a clearing network utilized by digital asset firms, with transactions handled by SEC-registered broker-dealer tZERO Securities; this marks the first external fund offered on Lynq. The approach differs from much of Wall Street’s blockchain push: BlackRock built BUIDL as a tokenized fund, while Franklin Templeton offers tokenized shares of its money market fund via BENJI; Goldman’s FTIXX remains the exact same traditional fund, with Lynq merely providing a new channel for digital asset firms to access it. In other words, Goldman did not have to build a new blockchain product to reach crypto firms; Lynq integrates an established Wall Street fund directly into the workflow these firms already use to move money. Jerald David, CEO of Lynq, described this as a convergence between traditional and digital asset participants. The practical utility is straightforward: firms using Lynq can park idle cash between trades into the fund to earn a yield and withdraw it whenever needed. The network’s clients include B2C2, Wintermute, Galaxy, FalconX, Crypto.com, and Fireblocks—firms whose operations require moving large sums of capital between trades. Lynq itself operates on a private, permissioned Avalanche Layer 1 blockchain, onboarding over 35 institutional digital asset firms and holding upwards of $89 million in assets. The true significance of the news lies not in its scale but in its direction: institutional crypto infrastructure is now pulling traditional financial products inward, representing a quieter yet more practical form of convergence than tokenization.

Levels to Watch

• PCE (tomorrow) and Employment (Friday): The week’s two critical data releases; today’s consumer confidence and JOLTS will provide initial clues. A hot reading could push October rate-hike odds to 80% and trigger new highs in yields.
• U.S. 10-Year at 5.274%: Highest since 2007, up 50 basis points in September. The 2-year is nearing the 5% threshold; breaching this level would confirm the market is more hawkish than the Fed.
• Bitcoin at 82,000–83,000 / 85,500 / 79.700: The support band, wave-B target, and deeper breakdown targets. Net gamma is below zero, meaning moves can magnify.
• Gold at $4,111: Monday’s low and the weakest level since August 5. A recovery is difficult before real yields peak, and Chinese holiday demand is also weighing on prices.
• Brent at 107 / 100: Rising for a second day. Concrete progress in mediator-led talks could open up a move below 100, while escalation would push 110 back into focus.
• BIST 100 at 12,593: Oversold with an RSI of 28 and a 14% monthly loss. It ranks as this month’s weakest major global index; a technical base for a relief rally is beginning to form, but rising currency pressure maintains the squeeze.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
September 29	Tuesday	U.S. September consumer confidence and August JOLTS job openings; RBA raises rates to 4.60%
September 30	Wednesday	U.S. August PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge); China PMI data; Bitget opens USDT withdrawals
October 1	Thursday	U.S. ISM manufacturing index; one-week National Day holiday begins in China
October 2	Friday	U.S. September non-farm payrolls; Eurozone inflation data; Bitget opens withdrawals for other tokens
October 6	Tuesday	Ethereum Glamsterdam public testnet (Sepolia)
Late October	—	FOMC meeting (probability of a hike above 70%); market pricing in three hikes through mid-next year
November 3	—	U.S. midterm elections; Anthropic IPO expected thereafter