Global Markets Briefing: Oil Slumps on Hormuz Diplomacy, AI Rally Splits Wall Street, and Yields Flatten

Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Daily briefing on Hormuz diplomacy, yield curve flattening, tech-driven market splits, and Bitcoin’s seasonal milestone.

Daily Summary

Our View: The six-day decline in oil is today’s main theme; the reopening of the Saudi pipeline and Iran’s conditions for the Strait of Hormuz are giving the market some breathing room. In this environment, we expect a moderate upward trend in risk assets to continue, the 10-year yield to remain below 5%, and leadership in tech to shift toward memory stocks. However, two warnings: the rally is once again concentrated in a narrow group, and the sell-off in banking stocks combined with the flattest yield curve since post-2010 indicate that high interest rates are beginning to price in the risk of slowing down the economy. The dollar remains strong near a two-month high, and if the yen approaches 160, intervention risk comes into play. The trend for Bitcoin is upward, but unless 87,600 is broken, a pullback toward around 84,000 is likely; Masoud Pezeshkian’s UN speech and a potential Trump meeting remain the biggest headline risks of the day.

Oil has been falling for six consecutive days, with Brent trading below $100. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline—which had been shut down on September 11—and may have resumed exports from Yanbu. Brent is at $98.2–98.7, and the WTI November contract is at $89.0–89.6; this marks the longest losing streak in a year.

Iran has communicated its conditions for Hormuz. Tehran, via Qatari mediation, presented conditions to the U.S. including a halt to attacks, an end to the naval blockade and economic war, and the unfreezing of its assets; according to an official, if pressure is lifted, the strait could reopen within a week. Trump described a three-hour meeting as “very good,” but reiterated his threat of “obiteration” and stated that a deal would come after the midterms.

Nasdaq renewed its record close, but the picture is divided. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% for its fourth consecutive day of gains, the S&P 500 closed slightly in the red, and the Dow fell 0.4%. Financials lost 2%, the bank index dropped 3%, and Schwab tumbled 6.1%.

The yield curve is the flattest since March 2025. The 2-to-10-year spread narrowed down to 17.9 basis points intraday, compared to 55.5 bps on August 18. The 2-year yield hit 4.79%, its highest since mid-2024; the probability of an October rate hike stands at 54%.

The dollar is at a two-month high at 100.72. The euro is at 1.1427, its weakest since late July, and sterling is at 1.3313. The Australian dollar hit parity against the Canadian dollar for the first time in over eight years.

SoftBank’s $10 billion bond offering attracted over $20 billion in demand. This will be one of the largest high-yield bond transactions in history, serving as a sign of lender confidence in the AI narrative. However, SB Energy and Holtec delayed their IPOs.

Bitcoin stands at 86,900, heading for its first quarterly winning streak since 2012. July gained 4.8%, August rose 25.2%, and September is currently up 10.9%. Around $1 billion flowed into ETFs on Monday; Zcash surged 10% to $1,616, and XRP gained 7% to $1.62.

Today: Flash PMI data for Europe, the UK, and the U.S.; Fed Governor Barr and ECB Chief Economist Lane speak; Xi arrives in Washington; Pezeshkian addresses the UN General Assembly.

Story of the Day

The negotiating table is set for Hormuz

For the first time in the seven-month war, a concrete diplomatic framework has emerged. Iran announced that it met with the U.S. in New York via Qatari mediation and conveyed its conditions to end the war on all fronts. According to Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, these conditions include a halt to U.S. “aggressive actions,” the end of the naval blockade and economic war, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. The proposal includes concrete details aimed at resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which prior to the war carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. According to a senior Iranian official, if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, the strait could reopen within a week. In his UN General Assembly speech, Trump said he had to choose between a deal and more severe military action: “Will there be a deal with Iran, or will I destroy the Islamic Republic—and quickly?” He later told reporters that U.S. officials held a “very good” three-hour meeting on the sidelines with Iranian representatives, noting that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had productive contacts and that he saw “a lot of momentum for a deal.” However, he lowered expectations regarding the timeline, stating that an agreement would come immediately after the November midterms because Iran itself was waiting to see the election outcome.

The market is pricing in the positive aspect of these mixed messages, supported by tangible improvements on the supply side. According to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline leading to the Red Sea on Tuesday; the line had been shut down on September 11 due to drone attacks attributed by Saudi Arabia to Iraqi militias, halting loadings at the Yanbu port. The approximately 4 million barrels per day carried by the line account for 4% of global supply. Riyadh also offered Asian refiners additional loadings from points outside Hormuz. Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar announced that the country is exporting over 3 million barrels per day and expects to increase shipments through Turkey to over 600,000 barrels. Combined with an unexpected 1.8-million-barrel build in U.S. inventories, Brent closed below $100 on Tuesday for the first time since September 8, with both benchmarks recording a six-session losing streak—their longest in a year. Tim Waterer from KCM Trade noted that the market feels more constructive regarding the global supply picture compared to a few weeks ago, that the New York meeting provides a glimmer of hope, and that despite threats of “obiteration,” the market has chosen to price in the possibility of negotiations. Still, the picture remains fragile: according to Kpler data, verified transits through Hormuz in the seven days leading to September 20 stood at 6.98 million barrels per day, only 38% of the pre-war baseline of 18.3 million barrels; Iran’s own crude oil loadings dropped from 893,000 barrels per day in July to zero in September. Kpler now describes the strait as “increasingly a Saudi-controlled shuttle corridor.”

The AI rally continues, but the market is splitting

Excitement over Meta’s Muse assistant continues into its second week, driving the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5% on Tuesday to close in positive territory for the fourth straight day, breaking records intraday and closing at all-time highs. Analysts are now wondering whether Google Labs’ similar product, CC, will find the same consumer reception. In Asia, Chris Weston from Pepperstone notes that leadership has shifted to memory stocks and semiconductors have risen for a sixth day; Samsung gained over 2%, and the Taiwan index neared record highs. Although Japan is on holiday, Nikkei futures traded at 66,735—about 1,700 points above Friday’s close—with Weston anticipating a strong opening in Japan tomorrow.

However, on the same day, the other half of the market moved in the opposite direction: the S&P 500 financial index fell 2%, and the banking index dropped 3%. Charles Schwab lost 6.1%, Ameriprise 4.4%, and Raymond James over 3%. There are two reasons for this. First, competitive concerns: Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, notes that Muse becoming the most downloaded free app on iPhones has investors worried about potential competition in the wealth management sector, describing it as “fear of AI disrupting traditional businesses” and an “indiscriminate selling” reaction. Second and more structurally, coming from the bond market: the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed to as low as 17.9 basis points intraday on Tuesday, the flattest level since March 2025 (closing at 21 bps), compared to 55.5 bps on August 18. Curve flattening erodes the profit banks generate by borrowing short-term and lending long-term. Rick Meckler from Cherry Lane Investments points to the core issue: there is a tipping point between rate hikes reflecting a strong economy and rate hikes creating an economic slowdown. Sykes’s third concern is the IPO market: according to The New York Times, IPO delays are occurring among companies tied to AI-supporting data centers, with SoftBank subsidiary SB Energy postponing its investor roadshow planned for this month, and nuclear services firm Holtec suspending its IPO last week.

Fed: Rate hike expectations persist as the curve flattens

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on Tuesday that they supported last week’s rate hike due to inflation concerns; this marked the third hawkish voice following Musalem’s message on Monday that “it’s better to act early than wait.” Futures markets are pricing in a 54% probability of a new hike in October and 33 basis points of tightening by year-end. The 2-year yield hit 4.879%, its highest since mid-2024, while falling oil prices supported the long end, keeping the 10-year yield below the painful 5% threshold at around 4.97%. Kieran Williams from Intouch Capital Markets says the dollar’s support from interest rates appears persistent, but futures are pricing in more tightening than the Fed’s own projections, meaning the dollar now needs data confirmation. Today’s flash PMI data for Europe, the UK, and the U.S. will be the first test of this confirmation. Another inflation risk stems from policy: Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the U.S. is considering banning diesel exports, examining whether a total or partial ban is viable regarding refining capacity; the national average price of diesel in the U.S. has risen to $6.53 per gallon. According to analysts, this is bad news for Europe, which relies heavily on U.S. shipments; the continent already faces a natural gas crunch that could push energy prices higher heading into winter.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday: the Nasdaq Composite refreshed its record with a 0.5% gain, the S&P 500 ended slightly lower (0.7% below its record), and the Dow fell 0.4% to 51,864. The VIX fell to 14.2, down 17% for the week; Brett Ewing from First Franklin considers this level “quite calm” given the Iran war and a new rate-hike cycle, raising their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,200. On a stock basis, chips showed strength: ASML rose 2.1% to $1,748 (up 11% for the week), TSMC gained 1.5% to $452, AMD rose 1.3% to $624 (up 26.4% for the week), and Nvidia added 0.7% to $229. Weaker names included Amazon down 1.3%, Alphabet down 1.1%, Microsoft down 0.7%, and Meta down 0.6%; in energy, Chevron dipped 0.6%. After hours, Worthington Enterprises surged 16% on demand expectations for data center liquid cooling tanks, IonQ gained 11% following a real-time quantum error solver test, and KB Home dropped 2% on weak delivery guidance. U.S. futures are slightly higher this morning; earnings are due today from General Mills, Paychex, and H.B. Fuller. Asia is striving for a sixth consecutive day of gains on Wednesday, but momentum is fading: MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan is up 0.3%, the KOSPI is up 0.4–0.5% at 7,046 (with Samsung up 2%), and Taiwan is up 0.7% at 48,086, very close to record highs. China moved in the opposite direction: the CSI 300 is down 0.5%, and the Hang Seng is down 0.7–0.9%, with financials and industrials leading losses in Hong Kong. In South Korea, solar stocks jumped ahead of a peak; Hana Securities views it as unlikely that the U.S. will ease restrictions on Chinese solar products, as Washington increasingly views solar as a strategic sector linked to national security. European futures are up 0.4%. The BIST 100 fell 1% to 13,199; weekly losses stand at 7.3%, monthly losses at 9.1%, and the RSI is at 37.

Currencies

The Dollar Index rose 0.16–0.29% to 100.71–100.72, reaching a two-month high and strengthening its technical outlook. The euro hit 1.1427–1.1428, its weakest level since late July, with an RSI of 33 near oversold territory; sterling hit a two-month low at 1.3313–1.3316. Williams from Intouch noted that the dollar now requires data confirmation, while oil support has weakened, leaving Brent at a two-week low on news of potential Hormuz reopening. Michael Wan from MUFG considers the pullback in oil prices from their peaks as good news, but adds that the path forward remains uncertain due to a lack of clarity on a war resolution. The yen traded at 157.58–157.66; Japan is on holiday, and analysts consider this low-liquidity period an opportune time for authorities to intervene. Williams’ framework is clear: the BOJ hike did not narrow the yield differential because the Fed hiked by the same amount two days prior, so the trend remains upward; 160 remains the risk level, but since authorities are moving away from prior warnings and fixed levels, a ceiling could arrive sooner and in different forms. An interesting detail of the day is the Australian dollar reaching parity against the Canadian dollar for the first time in over eight years, as a rate hike is priced in for Australia next week while the Canadian dollar suffers from falling oil prices. AUD/USD is at 0.7103, NZD/USD is at 0.5705 with an RSI of 28, and USD/CAD is in an uptrend at 1.4084 with an RSI of 65. USD/TRY hit a new high at 48.83, with an RSI of 92.

Commodities

Oil extended its decline for a sixth consecutive session amid the aforementioned supply and diplomacy news: Brent is at $98.2–98.7, and the WTI November contract is at $89.0–89.6. Brent is still up 37% since the war broke out in late February, but its loss of momentum over the past six sessions is notable. Natural gas moved in the opposite direction, jumping 6.9% to $3.17 for a 14.3% monthly gain; pre-winter supply tightness in Europe and the possibility of a U.S. diesel export ban are supporting this leg of the complex. Gold is flat at $4,341–4,372; expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer continue to exert pressure, with an RSI of 46 and a monthly loss of 6.6%. Silver rose 1.4% to $66.84, platinum stands at $1,815, and palladium at $1,307. Copper rose 0.8% to $6.81, nearing record highs and representing the clearest expression of the AI infrastructure theme on the commodities side with an 18% year-to-date gain. In grains, wheat fell 1.2% to 709, while cocoa rebounded to 5,419. Coffee cannot be interpreted due to a contract roll.

Crypto

Bitcoin trades at $86,500–86,900, up 1.4% over 24 hours and 14.7% for the week. It stands at the doorstep of a notable seasonal milestone: after gaining 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August, September is currently up 10.9%, which would complete only the second quarterly July–September winning streak in Bitcoin’s history, the previous one occurring in 2012. That year, the streak was broken by a 9.7% drop in October, but that drop formed a bottom on October 26, triggering a rally that carried the price up over 2,000% in 165 days. Because the sample size is one, no definitive conclusions can be drawn; furthermore, today’s Bitcoin is not a $10 asset where a few buyers could swing the price, but a trillion-dollar deep market with options, futures, and basis trades, making a rise of similar magnitude much harder. On the flow side, ETFs saw about $1 billion in inflows on Monday, but BeInCrypto’s analysis highlights the timing: ETF flow data reflects only the U.S. spot session, and Bitcoin had already surged sharply when U.S. markets opened. The initial spark came from the derivatives market, which liquidated $262.3 million in short positions within an hour, with ETF demand consolidating the rise afterward. Concentration in funds is also noteworthy: BlackRock’s IBIT holds 785,640 bitcoins, while Fidelity’s FBTC holds 176,510—slightly over a quarter of that amount. Total cumulative inflows surpassed $56.98 billion, and net assets under management exceeded $107.86 billion.

Developments on the Washington front are supporting sentiment. On September 17, the House Financial Services Committee approved the American Reserve Modernization Act by a 28–21 vote, sending the bill to the full floor; the text proposes putting approximately 325,000 bitcoins seized by the government from various criminal and civil lawsuits into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the Treasury, holding them for at least 20 years, and proving the asset base via independent quarterly audits. Tony Dicarlo from RootstockLabs notes that this is the most advanced legislation on the subject in Congress, though it still requires full floor and Senate votes. Secondly, after the Clarity Act stalled, the SEC stepped in to pave the way within 24 hours for tokenized U.S. stocks to trade on-chain by utilizing an innovation exemption; Dicarlo says this has sparked sharp rallies in tokenized-related assets and boosted overall confidence. Among altcoins, Zcash led the pack once again, rising over 10% to top $1,616; XRP gained 6–7% to $1.62, HYPE rose 4% to $97, Dogecoin added 4%, ADA gained 5.4%, while Ether (2,770) and Solana (119) saw limited gains, and Tron was the sole decliner. Solana saw a technical development: the network’s Alpenglow upgrade, aimed at reducing finality time from about 13 seconds to 0.15 seconds, moved to the public testnet. Finality is the moment exchanges wait for before crediting deposits, bridges wait for before releasing funds on another chain, and merchants wait for before being sure a payment cannot be reversed; if finality becomes this fast, Solana approaches card networks for payments. The upgrade ran on a separate network for over four months, but Firedancer and Frankendancer—developed by Jump Crypto—do not yet support the test, meaning the initial migration will occur via a single piece of software.

Second Story: SoftBank’s $10B bond as an AI credit test

One of the day’s least discussed yet most meaningful data points is the demand for SoftBank’s borrowing transaction exceeding $10 billion: reports indicate it gathered over $20 billion in investor interest, making it potentially one of the largest high-yield bond issuances in history. The significance of the figure lies less in its size and more in what it measures: a vast portion of heavy investments in AI infrastructure is debt-financed, and this transaction serves as a direct barometer of how much lenders trust this narrative. For now, the answer is clearly positive, aligning with the AI rally on the equity side. However, the same Reuters note points to a secondary consequence: this issuance implies additional competition against sovereign debt. In other words, the equation we have discussed all week—companies and governments competing for the same capital pool—tightens a bit more with each major deal. On the flip side of the picture, there are the first cracks on the financing front: SoftBank’s data center developer subsidiary SB Energy postponed its IPO investor roadshow, nuclear services firm Holtec suspended its IPO, and The New York Times reported a general delay among companies tied to data centers. Thus, while the credit market keeps its doors open to AI, the stock market hesitates to take these same companies public. The divergence between the two will be one of the theme’s most critical indicators in the coming months; if the credit side cools as well, the pace of this debt-fueled investment cycle will encounter its first real limit.

Levels to Watch

• Brent, $100: After a six-day decline, this psychological threshold now acts as resistance. Pezeshkian’s UN speech and a potential Trump meeting are today’s biggest headline risks; a positive signal pushes it toward 95, while threatening rhetoric takes it to 102.
• U.S. 2–10 Year Spread, 18–21 bps: The flattest since March 2025. Further flattening will deepen the sell-off in bank stocks and signal that the market has transitioned to pricing in “high rates slowing the economy.”
• U.S. 10-Year, 5.00%: Remains below the threshold as oil drops. Sustained stability below this level is the most critical technical support for the continuation of the equity rally.
• USD/JPY, 160: The risk level according to Williams. Japan is on holiday and liquidity is low; intervention may now arrive unannounced and in different forms.
• Bitcoin, 87,600 / 84,000: Breakout threshold above, pullback zone below. Above 88,000, liquidation pressures for short positions intensify; October carries a seasonal risk of breaking the streak.
• Flash PMI Data, Today: Europe, the UK, and the U.S. Weak data would scale back the Fed’s October hike pricing and test the dollar’s two-month high.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
Sept 23	Wednesday	Flash PMI data for Europe, UK, and U.S.; speeches by Fed Governor Barr, ECB Chief Economist Lane, and ECB members Cipollone, Machado, and Vujcic; U.S. weekly inventory data; Xi arrives in Washington; Pezeshkian addresses the UN General Assembly; earnings from General Mills and Paychex
Sept 24	Thursday	Trump-Xi summit (trade truce extension and AI cooperation expected); Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian central bank decisions; Japanese markets reopen
Sept 25	Friday	Crypto options expiry
Sept 28	Monday	Projected date for mainnet activation of Solana Agave 4.3 features
Late Sept	—	Reserve Bank of Australia (rate hike priced in); Oct 6 Ethereum Glamsterdam test
Late Oct	—	FOMC (54% probability of a hike; 33 bps priced in through year-end)