Global Market Briefing: Williams Paves Way for Fed Relief as Equities Hold Firm and Bitcoin Eyes the $80K Threshold

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Daily briefing on Williams’s rate pivot, sticky inflation data, soaring tech capital raises, and Bitcoin’s pivotal test at the quarterly close.

Daily Summary

Our View: Williams’s “no need to rush” message pared October rate hike pricing from 71% to 50%, giving the market some breathing room; today’s PCE release will determine whether this relief is sustained. A core reading of 0.3% or below will keep the equity recovery going, while a higher reading will push yields back to their peaks. In oil, Saudi Arabia’s resumption of loadings from Yanbu and Gulf exports hitting a wartime high support the downside; we expect Brent to hold within the 100-103 band. The dollar maintains its strong trajectory against the euro, though a weak data print could trigger profit-taking on the two-month rally. In Bitcoin, institutional buying is strong, but spot demand contracted by 170k bitcoins in 30 days; the 80,000 psychological threshold is the most critical level at the quarterly close.

• Williams halves rate hike pricing. New York Fed President pushed back against early tightening expectations, stating there is “no need to rush” to raise rates; October hike odds slipped from 71% to 50%, and the two-year yield dropped about 3.5 basis points.
• Bonds close out their worst quarter of the year. The 10-year yield rose 81 basis points in the July-September quarter, marking its sharpest advance since 2022 and hitting 5.24%, a 19-year high; Japan’s 10-year recorded its largest quarterly increase in over two decades at 42 basis points.
• Oil falls 2.5%, Saudi Arabia begins Yanbu loadings. Brent retreated to $102.59, and WTI dropped 3.5% to $89.38. According to Kpler, Middle East exports surged to 16.3 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began. Still, Brent posts a 13% monthly gain.
• Trump signs a “morally binding” document with AI leaders. Following a meeting attended by Huang, Musk, and Zuckerberg, a voluntary principles manifesto was signed; the administration is considering establishing a 10-person oversight committee. Trump also instructed all federal agencies to use the term “super intelligence” instead of “artificial intelligence.”
• OpenAI seeks $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation. SoftBank rose more than 6% on the news. Share issuance in Asia is challenging the 2021 record: regional companies have raised $327.1 billion this year, up 53% from last year.
• Euro at its weakest since May 2025: 1.1312. The dollar is closing September with its largest monthly gain against the euro in 14 years. The Franco-German yield spread widened past 115 basis points, the widest level since 2012. The Australian dollar sits at a nine-week low of 0.6959.
• Bitcoin stands at $83,300 with a CryptoQuant bull score of 90/100. However, spot demand contracted by 170k bitcoins in 30 days, and derivative demand growth plunged 90% in 15 days. Short-term holders’ unrealized profit sits at 33%, the highest since December 2024.
• Today: US August PCE (headline and core expected at 0.3%); German retail sales and CPI, French CPI, UK Q2 growth. China enters a week-long holiday tomorrow.

Story of the Day

Williams hits the brakes

The first serious pause in rate pricing, which had moved in a single direction for weeks, arrived last night. New York Fed President John Williams pushed back against early policy tightening expectations, stating there is “no need to rush” to raise rates. The impact was immediate: the two-year Treasury yield dropped roughly 3.5 basis points to 4.8889%, and next month’s hike pricing in futures fell from 71% to 50%. Williams’s clout stems from his institutional mandate; the New York Fed president is a permanent FOMC voting member and oversees market operations, carrying more weight than regional presidents. This marked the first time hawkish messages from Musalem, Barkin, Collins, and Paulson over the past two weeks were balanced.

Yet a single speech is not enough to change the broader picture, as quarterly figures demonstrate. The 10-year yield climbed 81 basis points in the July-September quarter, its sharpest advance since 2022, pinning borrowing costs at a 19-year high; September’s increase alone was nearly 50 basis points, the largest in two years. The clearest sign of this high-yield paradigm is in Japan: the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is poised for its biggest quarterly rise in over two decades, up 42 basis points. German and French 10-year yields hit 17- and 18-year highs this week, respectively. Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana accurately frames the scale: this is much larger than the repricing of a few central bank meetings; we are moving toward a structurally higher-yield regime, and the barrier to a sustainable return to ultra-low levels that investors grew accustomed to post-global financial crisis looks much higher. Today’s PCE data is the next stop in this debate: economists expect a 0.3% monthly gain in both headline and core, leaving annual headline at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, clearly above the Fed’s 2% target.

Why don’t equities care?

The most striking phenomenon of this quarter is that equity markets remain largely unfazed despite historic gains in yields. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped only about 1% this month, the Nikkei is closing the month nearly flat, and the Korean bourse finishes with a 1.4% monthly gain. Reuters’ framing captures the situation: equities are propped up by the AI trade, but the massive investments required for AI infrastructure make investors increasingly nervous, while the real action takes place in bonds. Citi’s Asia-Pacific head of trading strategy Mohammed Apabhai shares his bewilderment: what surprised us was the calm reaction of the equity market, where nominal GDP growth fueled earnings optimism; US equity markets are reacting to rising bond yields, but only outside the tech sector. In New York, the three most common questions during meetings with macro funds and institutional investors were: how high can bond yields go, at what level will major cloud providers start cutting capital expenditures, and when will equity markets react?

Capital market data highlights the scale of this appetite. According to LSEG data, Asia-Pacific companies raised $327.1 billion this year through equity and convertible bond issuances—a 53% year-on-year increase and a five-year high; the record stands at $557.6 billion in 2021, when $399.7 billion was raised by the end of September. Goldman Sachs head of Asia ex-Japan equity capital markets James Wang expects full-year issuance to surpass the 2021 record, illustrating the scale of the capital-raising cycle centered around AI. High-tech companies captured 38% of the total, or $125.8 billion—more than triple the figure from a year ago. In Q3, SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion on Nasdaq, and Chinese optical network equipment maker Zhongji Innolight raised $7.8 billion in Hong Kong. However, the abundance of supply is making investors selective: Citigroup head of Asia-Pacific capital markets Kenneth Chow notes that after heavy deal flow, they see some signs of investor caution, and while the market remains open, conditions need to be more reasonable than two or three months ago. UBS’s Aaron Oh draws a clear line: there is no liquidity shortage in the market; it is very eager to fund growth and provide capital to companies that can demonstrate genuine earnings exposure to AI building rather than just an AI narrative.

Washington puts a “moral” lock on AI

Trump announced following a White House lunch on Tuesday that he signed a document he described as “morally binding” with tech leaders, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Tesla and SpaceX’s Elon Musk, and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. The document is voluntary; House Speaker Mike Johnson said it serves as a voluntary statement of principles for the industry and that the White House will guide its development. Trump noted he saw “tremendous self-regulation” and added that the administration is considering setting up a 10-person committee to oversee the sector, arguing the government will not halt AI development since automatic regulation already exists through the DOJ and FBI. In a separate directive the same day, he ordered all executive branch agencies to use the term “super intelligence” instead of “artificial intelligence” in official correspondence, public statements, and policy documents; the terms “artificial intelligence” and “AI” will no longer be recognized. The two-page document signed by tech executives is unrelated to this renaming.

This development coincides with a week of internal warnings from the sector. Anthropic’s IPO filing warns that advanced AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks” to humanity—an extraordinary statement from a company aiming to profit from the same technology. Meanwhile, OpenAI unveiled “Dots,” “always-on” AI agents designed to help users complete various tasks, at its annual developer conference DevDay on Tuesday; the company has pulled its newest model, Astra, due to safety concerns. CNBC also confirmed that a new funding round of approximately $30 billion is being discussed for the company; Bloomberg reported the valuation will hit $1.4 trillion, and OpenAI investor SoftBank rose more than 6% on the news. Thus, within the same week, the sector is warning of existential risks, signing a voluntary principles document, and raising record-breaking capital.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street suffered its second consecutive decline on Tuesday: the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,671, the Dow dropped 0.26% to 51,350, and the Russell 2000 was down 0.35%; the Nasdaq 100 outperformed, rising 0.21% to 30,339. Pressure stemmed from the 30-year yield breaching 5.6% intraday to reach levels unseen since June 2002, alongside the 10-year crossing 5.29%. On a stock basis, ASML jumped 3.56% to $1,834 for a 4.95% weekly gain, Meta recovered 3.24% to $739, and TSMC gained 0.9% to $457; conversely, Apple slid 2.66% to $329, Tesla extended its bear trend down 1.29% to $353, and Nvidia fell 0.72% to $227. Energy stocks retreated alongside oil. US futures are higher this morning: S&P up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.13%. Asia rebounded on Wednesday: the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.9%, with 10 out of 11 industry groups closing in positive territory; the Nikkei advanced 0.9%-2.01% to 66,797, finishing the month nearly flat, Taiwan added 1.26% to 48,230, Australia climbed 1.06% to 8,801, and the KOSPI stayed flat at 6,873 for a 1.4% monthly gain. Hong Kong and Shanghai were flat; China enters a week-long National Day holiday tomorrow. European futures are up 0.4%-0.5%. The BIST 100 dropped 2.4% to 12,291, bringing its weekly loss to 6.9% and monthly loss to 14.3%, with the RSI deep in oversold territory at 25. The index closes September as by far the weakest major global index.

Foreign Exchange

The dollar index hit a two-month high of 101.46, closing September up 2% with an RSI of 69. The real story is its performance against the euro: the euro tumbled to 1.1312 on Tuesday, its lowest since May 2025, trading at 1.1335-1.1339 this morning as the dollar prepares for its biggest monthly advance against the euro in 14 years with a 2.4%-2.5% gain in September, alongside its third consecutive quarterly gain. Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly attributes the cause to three factors: the US economy is running hot, Europe is losing the global AI race, and energy supply and French politics remain major sources of concern for the euro. French markets are under pressure from debt and political gridlock, with the Franco-German yield spread widening past 115 bps, the widest since 2012. Option skew shifted sharply in recent sessions toward hedging against further euro downside; however, Donnelly adds that further dollar upside likely requires strong US data. The dollar hit a 16.5-month high of 0.8358 against the Swiss franc on Tuesday; the franc weakened as investors sought low-yielding yen alternatives to sell for carry. The yen gained 2% in September and 3.8% for the quarter, strengthening to 156.38 this morning before returning to the 157.03-157.14 band; joint intervention threats from Tokyo and Washington are deterring traders from new short positions. The Australian dollar hit a nine-week low of 0.6959 after inflation data came in slightly below expectations, trading at 0.6975 this morning; the New Zealand dollar sits at 0.5642. Sterling is down 2.3% on the month at 1.3228. The yuan is heading toward its seventh consecutive quarterly gain against the dollar in China’s final pre-holiday session. USD/TRY hit a new high at 49.01, with an RSI of 94.

Commodities

Oil closed down 2.5%-3.5% on Tuesday: Brent lost $2.69 to $102.59, and WTI shed $3.22 to $89.38; this morning Brent stands at $103.16 and WTI at $89.49. The decline is driven by tangible supply-side improvements: Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after reactivating the East-West pipeline. BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler summarizes the mechanism: Saudi pipeline flows increased, US-Iran negotiations continue, and while the parties appear far apart, both are seeking an exit; the more oil flows from the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran retains. According to Kpler data, Middle East crude oil exports rose to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began in late February. Trump denied reports suggesting he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds, stating he offered Iran nothing to end the war. Despite this, Brent closes the month up 13% and WTI up 4%. On the diesel front, the White House urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel reserves; according to the administration, many EU members failed to release as much oil and refined products as promised. Trump is also considering regulatory relief to allow wider sales of red-dyed diesel as an alternative to a diesel export ban. Precious metals rebounded: gold rose 0.73% to $4,210, with spot at $4,172; its month-to-date loss is 7.1%, and RSI sits near oversold at 34. Silver gained 1.32% to $61.47, platinum rose 2.33% to $1,719, and palladium added 2.36% to $1,230; however, palladium remains in a bear trend with a 13.9% monthly loss. Copper maintains its upward trend, up 1.17% at $6.62. Cocoa is down 18% on the month at $5,354.

Crypto

Bitcoin trades flat at $83,300, pulling back from last week’s eight-month high of $87,400 and seeking direction in the 83,000-84,000 band for two days. There is a contradiction in the chart, which forms today’s main crypto story. On one hand, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose to 90 out of 100; this score distills on-chain and market indicators into a single reading, jumping after Bitcoin crossed its 365-day moving average last week—a breakout the firm considers confirmation of a bull market. On the other hand, the buying that drove this move is already fading: CryptoQuant estimates spot demand contracted by approximately 170k bitcoins over the last 30 days. The firm measures demand by comparing newly minted bitcoin against changes in coin supplies dormant for a year or longer, and this indicator shrank all month, meaning the market is absorbing fewer coins than the amount coming into supply. Derivative demand is cooling faster: speculative derivatives demand growth plunged 90% in 15 days, dropping from roughly 164k bitcoins on September 14 to 16k on September 29. Recent buyers sit on an average of 33% unrealized profit, the widest margin since December 2024; they realized profits on over 25,700 bitcoins on September 22, the largest single-day profit-taking of the year. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno states the conclusion clearly: rallies struggle to extend without fresh demand; with spot demand continuing to contract and derivative growth stalling, sustaining near-term upside is challenging. Altcoin holders are also moving coins to exchanges: 76k altcoin deposits were made from 51k distinct addresses in seven days, the highest since October 2025; coins sitting on exchanges can be sold in seconds, meaning this supply is readily accessible for any spike.

Supporting factors remain robust as well. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $2.4 billion in net inflows during the week of September 21-25, marking the strongest weekly influx since October 2025; institutional buying demand persists despite the price correction. On the technical side, Fidelity global macro director Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin’s push above 80,000 triggered a “double-bottom breakout,” a pattern confirming the uptrend and opening the door to a rally toward $100,000; his chart places this year’s two troughs at $60,033 and $57,742, with the peak in between around $82,800. Option positioning aligns with this direction: Deribit’s most popular bitcoin bet is the $90,000 call option with $2.45 billion in open interest, followed by $95,000 at $2.33 billion and $100,000 at $1.79 billion. However, chart patterns are not guaranteed; breakouts frequently fail and rapidly reverse. CryptoQuant identifies three downside support tiers: the 365-day moving average around 80,000, the 200-day moving average around 71,000, and the on-chain realized price around 67,000. Overhead, the first major resistance zone is 88,000-90,000, with a supply zone near 95,000 above that. A statistical note: since 2013, every positive August has been followed by a negative September; a positive close today will break this decade-long pattern and give Bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains from July to September. Among altcoins, AVAX jumped 7.62% to $11.33 to lead with a 59% monthly gain; Solana rose 1.11% to 119, ZEC holds above 1,400, and XRP hovers around 1.50.

Second Story: Privacy Wallet zk.money Returns After Three Years

Aztec Labs is relaunching zk.money, a privacy wallet launched in 2021 and shut down in 2024. The problem is familiar: when you pay from a standard Ethereum wallet, the recipient can view that wallet’s entire history; anyone who knows the address can see the balance and track past transfers, exposing a company’s supplier payments or an individual’s spending history. zk.money ties payments to Ethereum but moves balances, amounts, and party identities to the Aztec Network, allowing users to pay readable names like bob.zk.money or shared links instead of copying long wallet addresses. The wallet is non-custodial, meaning operators cannot spend or freeze the funds inside. Users can deposit DAI, USDC, and USDT from Ethereum; USDC and USDT are converted to DAI upon entry, making DAI the sole internal currency. Aztec Labs CEO Joe Andrews says they chose DAI because they view it as the most decentralized mass-market stablecoin currently used on Ethereum.

The boundaries are also clear, which is where the real interest in the news lies. Inflows to the system still leave a public trail: according to Aztec’s documentation, a deposit from Ethereum exposes the sender and amount, with only the recipient on the Aztec side remaining private. Every deposit, payment, and withdrawal must be under $2,500, and all users share a $50,000 daily deposit quota that resets over time; documentation defines these limits as a protective measure while the system is new, noting that upgrades will require a new contract. Andrews states the limits were set due to novel and experimental cryptography, planning to raise them as trust grows and subsequent versions roll out. Deposits cost 35 cents plus Ethereum gas, and withdrawals cost 20 cents; users receive 100 sponsored transactions per day. The wallet also screens Ethereum addresses used for deposits and withdrawals against a sanctions policy. A risk warning applies: Aztec documentation states the software has not been fully audited and critical bugs are possible; contributors reported a critical vulnerability in the V5 proof system in August, explaining that fixes are planned for V6. Andrews says zk.money will launch before the exploit is patched, with a separate system named Oxide checking for payment errors caused by network software bugs. Before shutting down, the original zk.money served over 75k wallets and generated over $100 million in transaction volume; Ethereum developers are considering changes in the Hegota upgrade planned for 2027 to allow privacy applications to manage transaction approvals and fees with less reliance on external services.

Levels to Watch

• US PCE, today: Headline and core expected at 0.3%. A reading above expectations will erase the relief generated by Williams and push October pricing back up from 50%; a lower reading will sustain the equity recovery.
• US 10-year, 5.24%: Up 81 bps for the quarter, the sharpest rise since 2022. According to Chanana, the issue is no longer the pricing of a few meetings, but a structurally higher-yield regime.
• Bitcoin, 80,000 / 88,000-90,000: CryptoQuant’s first support tier (365-day moving average) and first major resistance zone. With spot demand contracting, the 80,000 psychological threshold is critical at the quarterly close.
• EUR/USD, 1.1312: Lowest since May 2025. The Franco-German spread is the widest since 2012; the options market is hedging against further downside, but Donnelly notes continuation requires strong US data.
• Brent, 100 / 105: Yanbu loadings and 16.3 million barrels of Gulf exports support the downside; negotiation gridlocks or fresh attacks will bring the upper band back into play.
• BIST 100, 12.291: RSI at 25 in deep oversold territory, with a 14.3% monthly loss making it September’s weakest major index. The technical rebound floor has strengthened, but currency appreciation (49.01) and foreign outflows sustain pressure.

Calendar of the Week

Date	Day	Event
September 30	Wednesday	US August PCE inflation (headline and core expected at 0.3%); German August retail sales and September CPI, French September CPI, UK Q2 GDP; quarterly close
October 1	Thursday	US ISM manufacturing index; China’s week-long National Day holiday begins
October 2	Friday	US September non-farm payrolls; Eurozone inflation data
October 6	Tuesday	Ethereum Glamsterdam public testnet (Sepolia)
October	–	French budget negotiations; UK budget; new corporate bond issuances expected from tech firms
Late October	–	FOMC (hike probability fell to 50% post-Williams)
November 3	–	US midterm elections; followed by expected Anthropic IPO