Daily Market Pulse: AI Capital Surge, Central Bank Pivots & Geopolitical Risk

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Daily briefing on Hormuz supply shocks, Fed rate outlook, AI mega-cap spend, and Bitcoin’s key support.

Daily Summary

Our View: Anthropic’s IPO filing has eased market anxiety, but the relief stems from the fact that a filing was made during such a period rather than the figures within the prospectus—which largely reiterate what is already known. This highlights the fragility of current optimism. On the same day, Meta announced a record $95 billion capital raise, and SpaceX secured a $40 billion leasing agreement with Apollo; both resolve funding challenges but also confirm the sheer scale of capital required. The Fed meeting begins today with the rate decision tomorrow; interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, making the primary question how clearly a December rate hike will be signaled. Bitcoin hovers around 80,000, with analysts pointing to support at 77,000; we believe expanding positions is unwarranted until the direction post-Fed becomes clear. Brazil serves as a warning for emerging markets: the Bovespa dropped 13.9% and the real fell 8.5% in a single day.

• Anthropic files for an IPO, boosting the AI trade. The prospectus reveals rapid revenue growth alongside heavy losses, with risk factors listing scenarios as extreme as the end of the world. The South Korean stock market posted its sharpest daily gain since early February, up 3.9%.
• Meta launches a record capital raise: $95 billion. This will be the largest share issuance in the company’s history, aimed at funding AI infrastructure. Last week, the cost of insuring Meta’s debt hit an all-time high.
• SpaceX signs a $40 billion leasing agreement with Apollo. An affiliate of Apollo Global Management will purchase AI chips and server hardware to lease to SpaceX, with total principal payments reaching approximately $40 billion.
• The Fed meeting begins today, with the decision tomorrow. The probability of rates remaining on hold is 89-91%, with an 82% chance priced in for a December hike. Fundstrat notes that while the Fed views itself as above partisan politics, altering rates one week before a national election is highly unlikely.
• October marks the worst month in the Strait of Hormuz since 2017. According to data from a Washington-based think tank, attacks on commercial vessels have hit record levels. ANZ reports that Gulf exports have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, with traffic through Hormuz running at only 60% of normal capacity.
• US forces ready for operations within 96 hours. According to CNN, US forces in the Middle East are positioned to launch operations against Iran within 96 hours of an order from Trump. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan held talks in Tehran on Monday.
• Bitcoin hovers around 80,000, with analysts pointing to 77,000. Bitfinex notes that the 81,300 support level, which held for weeks, has broken and now acts as resistance. There are approximately 874,000 bitcoins held between 81,000 and 82,500, which could generate selling pressure on any recovery attempt.
• Sharp sell-off in Brazil: Bovespa down 13.9%, real down 8.5%. Lula’s election victory and Bolsonaro’s refusal to accept the results rattled markets. Goldman Sachs points to 5.40 and 5.80 levels for USD/BRL under fiscal risk premium scenarios.

Story of the Day

Why did the Anthropic filing bring relief?

On Monday, Claude developer Anthropic announced its US IPO filing, and the market reacted positively.Interestingly, the content of the filing contained no new information. As Reuters’ morning note explicitly pointed out, the filing revealed nothing we did not already know: it features dazzling revenue growth, massive losses,and a risk factor section outlining end-of-the-world scenarios as we know them. The source of relief lies elsewhere: in the words of Tiger Brokers Chief Market Strategist James Ooi, the decision to proceed with the IPO despite recent volatility in the AI trade can be seen as a vote of confidence. In other words, the market reacted to the timing rather than the numbers.

Two major financing announcements arrived on the same day, both carrying the same contradiction. Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion in capital to expand its AI infrastructure, marking the largest share issuance in the company’s history. Meanwhile, SpaceX announced that an Apollo Global Management affiliate will purchase and lease back AI chips and server hardware, with total principal payments reaching roughly $40 billion. Reuters’ assessment strikes a balance: while these fundraisings alleviate certain concerns, they also heighten anxieties regarding the incredible capital required for AI infrastructure and how quickly it can translate into profitability—especially since the cost of insuring Meta’s debt against default reached an all-time high just last week. Thus, while the sector is solving its financing problem, every solution serves as a reminder of the problem’s massive scale.

Nonetheless, market reaction was robust. South Korea’s KOSPI surged 3.25–3.9%, marking its sharpest daily bounce since early February. The Korean Exchange even triggered a buy-side circuit breaker—suspending program trading for five minutes after the Kospi 200 futures index rose over 5% for more than a minute. Still,the index remains down 17-19% in October, illustrating the magnitude of recent AI jitters. In Japan, SoftBank gained 7.6%, chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron 3.86%, test equipment maker Advantest 8.8%, and memory chip maker Kioxia 2.5%, while in Korea, SK Hynix gained 6.5–7.1% and Samsung 5.2%. In the US,the chip index jumped 2.8% in overnight trading, posting its biggest daily surge in a month. Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene frames this week’s ultimate test: given mounting scrutiny and cyclical adjustments in AI, investors will demand evidence that demand extends beyond these interconnected relationships to support ongoing infrastructure expansion; they need confidence that aggressive capital expenditures reflect durable business needs and that profitability will be preserved as new infrastructure goes live.

A record month of attacks in Hormuz

Oil dipped roughly 1% on Tuesday, with Brent falling to $114.81 and WTI to $100.88. The driver was diplomacy: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday aimed at easing tensions. According to Iranian state media, the four countries agreed to continue discussions to strengthen cooperation in peace and security. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, describes the movement: crude prices are experiencing profit-taking after hitting multi-month highs, as renewed diplomatic efforts in West Asia raise hopes for a potential breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations; however, prices remain elevated due to lingering geopolitical uncertainties.

Data reflecting the fragility of peace, however, is severe. According to a Washington-based think tank, October has been the worst month for commercial vessel attacks in the waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz out of all maritime security incidents tracked since 2017. ANZ Research highlights supply chain stress through numbers: the oil market remains vulnerable due to pressures across supply, logistics, inventories, and refining.Gulf crude exports dropped for the fourth consecutive week, flows through Hormuz are running at only about 60% of normal levels, and global distillate inventories sit roughly 5% below the five-year average. Before the war, this narrow waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s energy supply. Houthi attacks continue; the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting three ballistic missiles and drones targeting two regions of the kingdom on Tuesday. According to CNN, US forces in the Middle East are positioned to launch operations against Tehran within 96 hours of an order from President Trump. ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist Nick Twidale points to the core risk: supply remains the primary concern, and any development threatening physical exports could quickly drive Brent to test recent highs and potentially push toward $120.

Three central banks, one question

Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged across all three central bank decisions this week, meaning the critical information will reside in the messaging rather than the decisions themselves. The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting today and will announce its decision tomorrow; according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike this week is 9-11%, while a December hike is priced at 82%. Fundstrat Washington Policy Strategist Thomas Block highlights two points: even if rates remain unchanged as expected, it will be interesting to see how the vote tally turns out following the dissents seen in the last two meetings; furthermore,while the Fed views itself as above partisan politics, altering rates one week before a national election is unexpected. Geng Ngarmboonanant, Head of Macro and Policy at JPMorgan Asset Management, poses and answers the core question: Can we expect US growth to hold up in a higher-rate environment? We think yes; we believe the US economy can manage higher interest rates.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its decision on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday. A symbolic threshold approaches for the BOJ: the bank is expected to declare victory on Friday in its roughly 14-year battle to achieve its 2% inflation target, signaling the possibility of a rate hike as early as December by emphasizing risks of prices overshooting the target. Meanwhile, the central banks of New Zealand and Canada are expected to hike by 25 basis points this week. A note from Reuters highlights an interesting risk: investors have recently focused on AI fears while casting inflation concerns aside, seeking the safety of government bonds—particularly US Treasuries—which pushed the 10-year yield below 5%. However,cautious remarks from central bankers could reignite inflation anxieties. On the data front, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and Q3 GDP are released on Thursday, following durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales today.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street started the week with gains: the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,677, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.09% to 29,273, the Dow added 0.28% to 52,362, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.38% to 2,786. The VIX dropped 5.45% to 18.39. The AI trade received support from the Anthropic filing. On an individual stock basis, Tesla jumped 5.21% to $391.62, standing out with a 6.4% weekly gain. AMD rose 2.80% to $531.28, Nvidia 2.39% to $216, Microsoft 1.54% to $532.60, TSMC 1.40% to $424.37, and ASML 1.22% to $1,590.90. Notable weakness was seen on the other side: Meta fell 1.88% to $630.56, extending its weekly loss to 10.6% and sitting 19.1% below its 52-week high; Alphabet dropped 1.06% to $316.80 with a 7.96% weekly loss, bringing its Relative Strength Index (RSI) down to 29.6 in oversold territory; and Apple dipped 1.10% to $343.91. In short, the two companies embarking on capital raises were sold, while others were bought. In after-hours trading, appliance maker Whirlpool plunged nearly 9% after lowering its annual revenue forecast, while airline JetBlue rose 7% after projecting margin expansion in the fourth quarter. Coca-Cola, Robinhood, and Boeing report earnings today, with US futures trading flat to slightly higher.

Asia traded strong on Tuesday: the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 0.9%. South Korea’s KOSPI surged 3.25% to 5,647, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.78% to 63,299, and China’s industrial profits grew 14.4% year-over-year in September, marking their strongest pace since June as an AI-driven manufacturing boom offset weak domestic demand. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.54% to 23,087, the Shanghai Composite declined 0.33% to 3,685, and Australia was down 0.32%. European futures point to a 0.18% lower open, following Monday’s gains where the DAX rose 0.91% to 25,411 and the CAC 40 added 0.83% to 7,847.HSBC reported third-quarter results and announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion through year-end. The sharpest move of the day occurred in Brazil: the Bovespa crashed 13.88% to 176,608, sinking 15.8% below its 52-week high, hit by Lula’s fourth-term victory and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s announcement that he would not accept the results and would seek an annulment. Turkey’s BIST 100 was flat, up 0.31% at 11,152; its monthly loss stands at 13.6% and the RSI remains deep in oversold territory at 28.3.

Foreign Exchange

The US Dollar Index rose 0.13% to 102.10, near a two-week high. The euro fell 0.43% to 1.1169; Societe Generale Chief Global FX Strategist Kit Juckes summarizes the core issue: the fundamental thesis for the euro hasn’t changed and yield spreads have narrowed, but the euro remains vulnerable at this juncture due to an uninspiring growth outlook and persistently high energy prices. Last week, a sell-off in French government bonds pushed the nation’s debt risk premium to its highest level since the 2011 sovereign debt crisis, reviving fears of renewed financial stress across the euro area; French bonds rebounded on Monday following Moody’s decision to avoid a credit downgrade. Juckes also notes regarding the dollar: the greenback has underperformed expectations and faces certain headwinds, but US economic data has proven remarkably resilient. Sterling stands at 1.3331, the yen at 157.74—maintaining its safe-haven appeal ahead of Friday’s BOJ decision—the Australian dollar at 0.7025, the Canadian dollar at 1.4018, and the Swiss franc at 0.8280.The story of the day belongs to the Brazilian real: the currency plummeted 8.5% on Monday to 5.40 against the dollar. A note led by Goldman Sachs analysts Teresa Alves highlights two thresholds: while the risk of prolonged electoral disputes negatively impacts market sentiment, more fundamentally, they believe a higher fiscal risk premium should be priced into the real and other domestic assets. In more adverse fiscal scenarios,they set USD/BRL at 5.40—comparable to the fiscal premium of September 2024—and 5.80, corresponding to a higher premium similar to December 2024. USD/TRY hit a new peak at 49.78, with its RSI reaching an extreme overbought reading of 97.6.

Commodities

Oil retreated alongside the diplomacy outlined above: Brent settled at $114.81 and WTI at $100.88. Last week,Brent had breached $117 to touch its highest level since April. Sell-offs continue in precious metals as part of a four-week trend: gold dropped 0.42% to $4,021.40, silver fell 1.32% to $53.40, platinum declined 1.50% to $1,513.70, and palladium shed 1.18% to $1,035.50. Gold lost 4% last week in its worst week in nearly four months, slipping below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July. Tastylive Global Head of Macro Ilya Spivak provides the levels: gold is fundamentally digesting within Friday’s range following last week’s major drop; a breakdown below $3,900 could trigger a quite notable further decline, potentially testing the $3,800 region. All four metals exhibit RSIs in the 27-35 range, placing them in oversold territory, with weekly losses reaching 6.3% for silver, 7.6% for platinum, and 7.2% for palladium. Copper moved in the opposite direction, rising 1% to $6.57 to sit just 3.76% below its 52-week high, narrowing its monthly loss to 1.83%. Natural gas surged 16.76% to $3.04, marking the strongest gainer over the past two sessions.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $79,956 on Tuesday morning, down 0.16% over 24 hours and sitting just below the 80,000 threshold, having dipped to $79,250 over the weekend. An analysis published by Bitfinex on Monday clearly outlines the technical picture: bitcoin’s 9.3% pullback from its September 21 peak of $87,392 marks the largest correction since the cycle low in July. The 81,300 support level, which held for weeks, has broken, and the firm notes this level now acts as resistance; roughly 874,000 bitcoins held between $81,000 and $82,500 could add selling pressure on any recovery attempt. The next significant support zone, calculated using large investor cost bases and realized market averages, sits in the $77,000–$77,765 range. According to Bitfinex, a sustained move above $82,500—bolstered by a revival in spot bitcoin ETF demand—would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. The firm also issues an important warning: the usual derivatives position washout that typically accompanies definitive market bottoms has not yet occurred in bitcoin; even as prices fell, total open interest in futures rose to 669,253 bitcoins on October 25, meaning traders continued to open positions throughout the sell-off.

The counter-argument remains strong and data-driven. Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Research, argued in a report published Thursday that the bear market is already over: we believe the bottom is in, selling pressure is abating, the value-erosion argument is strengthening, and tourists have left the market—all reasons to remain bullish on bitcoin. The figures show: bitcoin’s latest bear market drawdown of roughly 53% from its October 2025 peak was the shallowest on record, compared to losses of 77% to 93% in prior bear markets. After spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average, bitcoin notched five consecutive weekly closes above it leading up to October 18, and currently trades roughly 5% above its 50-week moving average of $75,812. Galaxy examined the four previous recovery instances after spending at least 20 weeks below the average; in each case, bitcoin did not close more than 8.4% below the recovery level over the ensuing year. Long-term holder distribution has also slowed: wallets dormant for at least five years distributed an average of 34,000 bitcoins per month in 2026, compared to 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. The condition that would invalidate Thorn’s thesis is clear: a weekly close below $76,540 failing to reclaim the level within a month.

On-chain data offers a balance between these two views. Glassnode reported on October 26 that the share of supply held in profit by short-term holders—those holding bitcoin for less than 155 days—dropped to approximately 70%, down from nearly 100% at the end of September. The firm’s commentary: for buyers anticipating a continuation of the uptrend, this represents a significantly better entry point than a month ago.The logic is simple; when virtually all short-term holders are in profit, the market is stretched because a vast number of participants have both the reason and capacity to sell. That was the picture at the end of September, and subsequent profit-taking and exchange inflows matched this pattern. Santiment offers another signal: bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, and the firm interprets this as a potential bottoming sign; retail capitulation has historically been more constructive than a flood of new buyers chasing rallies. Santiment notes that a sustained breakdown below $79,000 would delay bottom signals, while reclaiming the 82,500 area would strengthen them. Seasonality carries a warning: November has closed higher in 63% of years since November 2010 with a median gain of 10.26%, but only two out of five Novembers following a red October have risen; last year, a 3.95% October loss was followed by a 17.49% November drop.

Second Story: Bitmine shifts from buying ether to repurchasing its own shares Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies has resumed share buybacks after a hiatus of roughly 10 weeks, spending approximately $45.9 million last week to acquire 2.04 million shares at an average price of $22.48. This marks the company’s first buyback since August 17, when a five-week sequence concluded with a total spend of $350 million for roughly 21 million shares. With these latest purchases, the company’s total buybacks this year have reached 22.9 million shares, or approximately $400 million. In the same week, Bitmine acquired an additional 10,452 ether—worth roughly $24.5 million—representing a slower pace than the previous week’s 12,535 ether. Its holdings have reached 6,051,933 ether, representing roughly 4.95% of Ethereum’s 122.2 million token supply, leaving the company about 58,000 ether away from its 5% target.

The capital allocation preference here is significant and illustrates a limitation of the treasury company model.The firm splits its capital between acquiring ether and buying back its own shares, favoring the latter as it approaches its target. The logic is straightforward: if shares trade below the net asset value of the underlying ether they hold, buying shares becomes an indirect, cheaper way to buy ether. Chairman Tom Lee views the recent sell-off as an opportunity, comparing crypto and AI equities: crypto was dragged down by the same risk-off forces behind the AI sell-off, with ether down 13% from its recent peak compared to a 20% drop in the US semiconductor index—which he believes provides additional evidence that a crypto bull market remains intact.While the comparison is valid, it’s worth noting that smaller losses for crypto now do not preclude steeper drops later. Bitmine has also staked 86% of its holdings—roughly 5.23 million ether—projecting annualized staking revenue of approximately $318 million at current yields. For investors in Turkey, the key takeaway is this: Bitmine had been the ether market’s most consistent buyer for weeks, and management had stated that demand would cease once the 5% target was reached; the pivot to buybacks suggests that moment may arrive sooner than expected.

Levels to Watch

• Fed decision and Warsh press conference (Tomorrow): Probability of rates remaining unchanged is 89-91%. The critical information will be how clearly a December hike is signaled; the market prices an 82% chance. The vote tally should also be monitored.
• Bitcoin (77,000–77.765 / 82.500): Bitfinex’s next support zone and the level confirming the end of consolidation. Between 81,000 and 82,500 sit 874,000 bitcoins that could spark selling pressure on any recovery.
• Bitcoin Weekly Close ($76,540): The threshold that would invalidate Galaxy’s bull thesis. A weekly close below this level without a recovery within a month would signal the bear market is not over.
• Brent ($114.81 / $120): Current level and Twidale’s target. Hormuz flows run at 60% of normal, Gulf exports have fallen for four weeks; any development threatening physical exports will prompt a rapid test.
• Gold ($3,900): Spivak’s breakdown threshold. Sustained trading below this level brings the $3,800 region into play; all four precious metals are oversold, but energy-driven inflation pressures persist.
• Brazilian Real (5.40 / 5.80): Goldman’s two fiscal risk premium scenarios. Prolonged disputes over election outcomes will continue to suppress risk appetite across emerging market baskets.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Release
Oct 27	Tuesday	Fed begins two-day meeting; US durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales; France October consumer confidence; earnings from Coca-Cola, Robinhood, Boeing, Novartis, and HSBC
Oct 28	Wednesday	Fed rate decision and Warsh press conference (89–91% probability of hold); earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft; SK Hynix results & shareholder return measures; Central Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada decisions (25 bps hikes expected in both); UK Budget
Oct 29	Thursday	ECB rate decision (hold expected); Amazon earnings; US September PCE inflation and Q3 GDP
Oct 30	Friday	Bank of Japan decision (hold expected; expected to declare victory on 2% target and signal December hike); Deribit monthly crypto options expiry; October month-end

• This week: Over one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings.
• Nov 3 (Tuesday): US midterm elections; US forces ready to launch Iran operations 96 hours post-order per CNN.
• Nov 11 (Wednesday): MSCI index exclusion announcements (Strategy and Metaplanet at risk).