Daily Market Brief: AI Momentum, Fed Outlook & Geopolitical Risks

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Daily briefing on Strait of Hormuz shocks, Fed meeting ahead, AI infrastructure spend, and crypto liquidity.

Daily Summary

Our View: Anthropic’s IPO filing has eased the market, but the relief stems not from the numbers in the filing,but from the very fact that a filing was made during such a period; the filing simply reiterates what is already known. This indicates that optimism is fragile. On the same day, Meta’s record $95 billion capital raise and SpaceX’s $40 billion leasing deal with Apollo were announced; both solve the funding issue but also confirm the scale of capital required. Today, the Fed meeting begins with the decision due tomorrow; rates are expected to remain on hold, and the real question is how clearly a December hike will be signaled. Bitcoin is hovering around 80,000, with analysts pointing to the 77,000 support; we do not deem it appropriate to increase positions until the direction post-Fed becomes clear. The situation in Brazil serves as a warning for emerging markets: the Bovespa dropped 13.9% and the real tumbled 8.5% in a single day.

• Anthropic filed for an IPO, reinvigorating the AI trade. The filing shows rapid revenue growth and heavy losses, with risk factors listing scenarios that could bring about the end of the world. The Korean stock market posted its sharpest daily gain since early February, up 3.9%.
• Meta is undertaking a record capital raise of $95 billion. It will be the largest share issuance in the company’s history and will finance AI infrastructure. Last week, the cost of insuring Meta’s debt against default hit an all-time high.
• SpaceX reached a $40 billion leasing deal with Apollo. An affiliate of Apollo Global Management will purchase AI chips and server hardware and lease them to SpaceX; total principal payments amount to approximately $40 billion.
• The Fed meeting starts today, with the decision tomorrow. The probability of rates remaining unchanged is 89–91%, and a December hike stands at 82%. Fundstrat: Even though the Fed sees itself above partisan politics, it is not expected to change rates a week before a national election.
• October was the worst month in the Strait of Hormuz since 2017. According to data from a Washington-based think tank, attacks on commercial vessels are at record highs. ANZ: Gulf exports fell for the fourth consecutive week, and transits through Hormuz are at only 60% of normal levels.
• US forces ready for operations within 96 hours. According to CNN, US forces in the Middle East are capable of launching operations against Iran within 96 hours of an order from Trump. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan held talks in Tehran on Monday.
• Bitcoin is around 80,000, with analysts pointing to 77,000. According to Bitfinex, the 81,300 support that held for weeks has been broken and now acts as resistance; there are about 874,000 bitcoins between 81,000 and 82,500, which could generate selling pressure on every recovery attempt.
• Sharp sell-off in Brazil: Bovespa fell 13.9% and the real dropped 8.5%. Lula’s election victory and Bolsonaro’s refusal to accept the result hit the markets; Goldman Sachs points to 5.40 and 5.80 levels for the dollar-real as fiscal risk premium scenarios.

Story of the Day

Why did the Anthropic filing provide relief?

On Monday, Claude developer Anthropic announced its US IPO filing, and the market reacted positively.Interestingly, the content of the filing contained no new information. As Tiger Brokers chief market strategist James Ooi put it, despite recent volatility in the AI trade, the decision to proceed with the IPO filing itself can be seen as a vote of confidence. In other words, the market reacted to the timing, not the numbers.

On the same day, two more major financing announcements arrived, both carrying the same contradiction.Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion to expand its AI infrastructure, marking the largest share issuance in the company’s history. Meanwhile, SpaceX announced that an Apollo Global Management affiliate will purchase AI chips and server hardware and lease them back, with total principal payments of around $40 billion. Reuters’ assessment strikes a balance: while these fundraisings alleviate some concerns, they also heighten anxieties regarding the incredible capital required for AI infrastructure and how quickly it can turn a profit—just last week, the cost to insure Meta’s debt against default reached an all-time high. In short, the sector is solving its financing problem, but every solution serves as a reminder of the scale of the problem.

Market response was nonetheless strong. South Korea’s KOSPI surged between 3.25% and 3.9%, marking its sharpest daily jump since early February, prompting the Korea Exchange to trigger a buy-side circuit breaker halting program trading for five minutes after the Kospi 200 futures index gained more than 5%. Still, the index remains down 17–19% in October, illustrating the magnitude of recent AI jitters. In Japan, SoftBank rose 7.6%,chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron 3.86%, test equipment maker Advantest 8.8%, and memory chip maker Kioxia 2.5%; in Korea, SK Hynix gained 6.5–7.1% and Samsung 5.2%. In the US, the chip index jumped 2.8% in overnight trading, its largest daily surge in a month. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene frames this week’s true test: given the recent increase in AI scrutiny and cyclical adjustments, investors will want evidence that demand is broadening beyond these interconnected relationships to support ongoing infrastructure expansion; investors need confidence that aggressive capital spending reflects enduring business needs and that profitability will be preserved as new infrastructure comes online.

A record month of attacks in Hormuz

Oil dipped about 1% on Tuesday, with Brent falling to $114.81 and WTI to $100.88. The reason was diplomacy: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday aimed at easing tensions, and according to Iranian state media, the four countries agreed to continue discussions to strengthen cooperation in peace and security. SS WealthStreet founder Sugandha Sachdeva describes the move: crude prices are experiencing profit-taking after hitting multi-month highs, as renewed diplomatic efforts in West Asia raise hopes for a potential breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations; however, prices remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Data illustrating the fragility of peace, however, is heavy. According to data from a Washington-based think tank, October was the worst month for commercial vessel attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz among all maritime security incidents tracked since 2017. ANZ Research highlights supply chain stress with figures:the oil market remains fragile due to pressures across supply, logistics, inventories, and refining; Gulf crude exports have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, flows through Hormuz are at only about 60% of normal levels, and global distillate inventories sit roughly 5% below the five-year average. Before the war, this narrow waterway carried about a fifth of global energy supplies. Houthi attacks continue; the Saudi-led coalition announced on Tuesday that it downed three ballistic missiles and drones targeting two regions of the kingdom.According to CNN, US forces in the Middle East are ready to launch operations against Tehran within 96 hours of an order from Trump. ATFX Global chief market strategist Nick Twidale points to the primary risk: supply remains the main concern, and any development threatening physical exports would cause Brent to rapidly retest recent highs and likely head toward $120.

Three central banks, one question

Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in all three central bank decisions this week, meaning the true information lies not in the decisions themselves, but in the messaging. The Fed begins its two-day meeting today and will announce its decision tomorrow; according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a hike this week is 9–11%, while the probability of a December hike stands at 82%. Fundstrat Washington policy strategist Thomas Block highlights two points: even if rates are unchanged as expected, it will be interesting to see how the vote breaks down following the voting volatility in the past two meetings; additionally, while the Fed sees itself above partisan politics, it is not expected to change rates a week before a national election.JPMorgan Asset Management head of macro and policy Geng Ngarmboonanant provides the key question and answer: can we expect US growth to hold up in a higher interest rate environment? Yes, we think so; we believe the US economy can manage higher interest rates.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank announces its decision, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. On the BOJ front, there is a symbolic threshold: the bank is expected to declare victory on Friday in its roughly 14-year battle to achieve its 2% inflation target and highlight the risk of prices overshooting the target, signaling the possibility of an interest rate hike as early as December. Meanwhile, the central banks of New Zealand and Canada are expected to hike by 25 basis points this week. A note from Reuters highlights an interesting risk:investors have recently focused on AI fears and pushed inflation concerns aside, fleeing to the safety of government bonds, particularly US Treasuries, which drove the 10-year yield below 5%; however, cautious remarks from central bankers could reignite inflation anxiety. On the data front, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and third-quarter GDP are released on Thursday; today features durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street started the week with gains: the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,677, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.09% to 29,273, the Dow added 0.28% to 52,362, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.38% to 2,786. The VIX dropped 5.45% to 18.39. The AI trade found support from the Anthropic filing. On a stock basis, Tesla jumped 5.21% to $391.62, standing out with a 6.4% weekly gain, while AMD added 2.80% to $531.28, Nvidia gained 2.39% to $216, Microsoft rose 1.54% to $532.60, TSMC advanced 1.40% to $424.37, and ASML closed up 1.22% at $1,590.90. The weak side was notable: Meta fell 1.88% to $630.56, bringing its weekly loss to 10.6%, 19.1% below its 52-week high; Alphabet dropped 1.06% to $316.80 with a weekly loss of 7.96%, bringing its relative strength index (RSI) to 29.6 in oversold territory, and Apple declined 1.10% to $343.91. In other words, while the two companies undertaking capital raises were sold, others were bought. In after-hours trading, appliance maker Whirlpool dropped nearly 9% after lowering its annual earnings outlook, while airline JetBlue rose 7% after announcing it expects margin expansion in the fourth quarter. Today, Coca-Cola, Robinhood, and Boeing report earnings, and US futures are flat to slightly higher.

Asia traded strong on Tuesday: the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 0.9%. South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 3.25% to 5,647, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.78% to 63,299; China’s industrial profits rose 14.4% year-on-year in September, showing their strongest pace since June, as an AI-driven manufacturing boom offset the impact of weak domestic demand. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.54% to 23,087, the Shanghai Composite declined 0.33% to 3,685, and Australia was down 0.32%. European futures point to a 0.18% lower open; on Monday, the DAX had gained 0.91% to 25,411 and the CAC 40 rose 0.83% to 7,847. HSBC reported third-quarter results and announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion through year-end. The sharpest move of the day was in Brazil: the Bovespa plunged 13.88% to 176,608, sinking 15.8% below its 52-week high; Lula’s fourth-term victory and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s announcement that he will not accept the result and will seek its annulment hit the market. The BIST 100 was flat, up 0.31% at 11,152; its monthly loss stands at 13.6% and the RSI remains deep in oversold territory at 28.3.

Currencies

The dollar index rose 0.13% to 102.10, near a two-week high. The euro fell 0.43% to 1.1169; Societe Generale chief global FX strategist Kit Juckes summarized the core issue: the fundamental issue for the euro has not changed and spreads have narrowed, but the euro remains vulnerable at this point due to a lackluster growth outlook and still-high energy prices. Last week, a sell-off in French government bonds pushed the country’s sovereign risk premium to its highest level since the 2011 sovereign debt crisis, reviving fears of renewed financial stress across the euro area; French bonds rebounded on Monday following Moody’s avoidance of a rating downgrade. Juckes also observed on the dollar side: the dollar has underperformed expectations and faces some headwinds, but US economic data has proven quite resilient. Sterling stood at 1.3331, the yen at 157.74, remaining a safe-haven choice ahead of Friday’s BOJ decision. The Australian dollar was at 0.7025,the Canadian dollar at 1.4018, and the Swiss franc at 0.8280. The story of the day was the Brazilian real: the currency depreciated 8.5% on Monday, dropping to 5.40 against the dollar. In a note led by Teresa Alves,Goldman Sachs analysts outlined two thresholds: the risk of prolonged dispute over election results negatively impacts market sentiment, but more fundamentally, they believe a higher fiscal risk premium should be priced into the real and other local assets; in more adverse fiscal scenarios, they designated the dollar-real level of 5.40 as corresponding to the fiscal premium seen in September 2024, and 5.80 as corresponding to the higher premium seen in December 2024. USD/TRY hit a new high at 49.78 with an RSI of 97.6, reaching extreme overbought territory.

Commodities

Oil declined amid the diplomacy detailed above: Brent stood at $114.81 and WTI at $100.88. Last week, Brent topped $117, reaching its highest level since April. Sell-offs in precious metals continued as part of a four-week trend: gold fell 0.42% to $4,021.40, silver dropped 1.32% to $53.40, platinum declined 1.50% to $1,513.70,and palladium lost 1.18% to $1,035.50. Gold lost 4% last week, marking its worst week in about four months,and fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July. Tastylive head of global macro Ilya Spivak provided the key levels: gold is essentially consolidating within Friday’s band following last week’s massive drop; a breakdown below $3,900 could trigger a quite notable further decline, potentially testing the $3,800 region. The RSI for all four metals sits in the 27–35 range, firmly in oversold territory, with weekly losses of 6.3% in silver,7.6% in platinum, and 7.2% in palladium. Copper moved in the opposite direction, rising 1% to $6.57, only 3.76% below its 52-week high, trimming its monthly loss to 1.83%. Natural gas surged 16.76% to $3.04,marking the sharpest gainer for the second consecutive day.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $79,956 on Tuesday morning, down 0.16% over 24 hours, sitting just below the 80,000 threshold. Over the weekend, it had dipped as low as $79,250. An analysis published by Bitfinex on Monday laid out the technical picture clearly: Bitcoin’s 9.3% pullback from its September 21 peak of $87,392 marks the largest correction since the cycle low in July. The 81,300 support that held for weeks has also broken, and the firm notes this level now acts as resistance; roughly 874,000 bitcoins are held between $81,000 and $82,500,which could add selling pressure every time the price attempts to recover. The next significant support zone,calculated using large investors’ cost basis and real market averages, is the $77,000–$77,765 range.According to Bitfinex, a sustained move above $82,500, supported by reviving demand for spot Bitcoin funds,would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. The firm also issued an important warning: the usual derivatives position flushing that accompanies sustained market bottoms has not yet occurred in Bitcoin; total open interest in futures actually climbed to 669,253 bitcoins on October 25 despite falling prices, meaning traders continued to open positions during the sell-off.

The opposing view is also strong and data-driven. Galaxy Research head of firm-wide research Alex Thorn argued in a report published Thursday that the bear market is already over: we believe the bottom is past,selling pressure has abated, the value-erosion argument has strengthened, and the crowd has left the market,all of which are reasons for us to remain optimistic on Bitcoin. The figures show: Bitcoin’s last bear market decline was roughly 53% from its October 2025 peak, the shallowest on record, whereas previous bear markets saw losses between 77% and 93%. After spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average,Bitcoin recorded five consecutive weekly closes above this average through October 18, and currently sits roughly 5% above its 50-week moving average of $75,812. Galaxy examined four previous recovery instances following at least 20 weeks below the average; in each case, Bitcoin did not close more than 8.4% below the recovery level over the following year. Selling by long-term holders has also eased: an average of 34,000 bitcoins per month left wallets dormant for at least five years in 2026, compared to 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. The condition that would invalidate Thorn’s thesis is also clear: a weekly close below $76,540 that fails to be reclaimed within a month.

On-chain data offers a balance between these two views. Glassnode reported on October 26 that the supply share held in profit by short-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—dropped to approximately 70%, down from nearly 100% at the end of September. The firm’s commentary is straightforward: for buyers expecting the uptrend to continue, this represents a notably better entry point than a month ago. The logic is simple; when virtually all short-term holders are in profit, the market is stretched because a large number of participants have both the reason and means to sell. That was the picture at the end of September, and subsequent profit-taking and spikes in exchange inflows matched this pattern.Santiment offers another signal: Bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, and the firm reads this as a potential bottom indicator; retail capitulation has historically been more constructive than a flood of new buyers chasing rallies. Santiment notes that a sustained breakdown below $79,000 would delay the bottom signal, while a reclamation around $82,500 would strengthen it. On the seasonality front, there is a caveat: November has closed higher in 63% of years since November 2010 with a median gain of 10.26%, but only two of the five years following a red October saw November gains; last year, a 3.95% October loss was followed by a 17.49% November drop.

Second Story: Bitmine shifts from buying Ether to repurchasing its own stock

Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies has resumed share buybacks after a roughly 10-week hiatus, spending approximately $45.9 million last week to acquire 2.04 million shares at an average price of $22.48. This marks the company’s first buyback since August 17, when a five-week series concluded with a total expenditure of $350 million for roughly 21 million shares. With these latest purchases, the company’s total buybacks for the year have reached 22.9 million shares, or roughly $400 million. During the same week,Bitmine acquired an additional 10,452 Ether—worth about $24.5 million—representing a slower pace than the previous week’s 12,535 Ether. Its holdings reached 6,051,933 Ether, representing about 4.95% of Ethereum’s 122.2 million token supply, bringing the company roughly 58,000 Ether away from its 5% target.

The capital allocation choice here is significant and illustrates a limitation of the treasury company model. The firm divides its money between buying Ether and repurchasing its own stock, prioritizing the latter as it nears its target. The logic is simple: if the stock trades below the value of the Ether it holds, buying shares becomes a cheaper indirect way to buy Ether. Chairman Tom Lee views the recent pullback as an opportunity,comparing crypto and AI stocks: crypto has been dragged down by the same risk-off forces behind the AI sell-off; Ether is down 13% from its recent peak, while the US semiconductor index fell 20% over the same period,which we believe is additional evidence that a crypto bull market is underway. While the comparison is valid, it should also be noted that crypto falling less does not mean it will not fall further in the future. Bitmine has also staked 86% of its assets—roughly 5.23 million Ether—projecting an annualized staking income of approximately $318 million at current yields. For investors in Turkey, the key takeaway to monitor is this:Bitmine has been the most consistent buyer in the Ether market for weeks, and it was announced that this demand would cease once the 5% target is reached; the shift toward buybacks indicates that milestone may arrive sooner than expected.

Levels to Watch

• Fed decision and Warsh press conference, tomorrow: Probability of rates remaining unchanged is 89–91%. The true information will be how clearly a December hike is signaled; the market prices it at 82%.The breakdown of the vote count should also be monitored.
• Bitcoin, $77,000–$77,765 / $82,500: Bitfinex’s next support zone and the level that would confirm the end of consolidation. There are about 874,000 bitcoins between $81,000 and $82,500, which could generate selling pressure on every recovery.
• Bitcoin weekly close, $76,540: The threshold that would invalidate Galaxy’s bull thesis. A close below this level that fails to be reclaimed within a month means the bear market is not over.
• Brent, $114.81 / $120: Current level and the target pointed to by Twidale. Flows through Hormuz are at 60% of normal levels, and Gulf exports have fallen for four weeks; any development threatening physical exports will trigger a rapid test.
• Gold, $3,900: Spivak’s breakdown threshold. Persistence below gold’s level brings the $3,800 region into focus; all four precious metals are in oversold territory, but energy-driven inflation pressures persist.
• Brazilian real, 5.40 / 5.80: Goldman’s two fiscal risk premium scenarios. Prolonged dispute over election results continues to suppress risk appetite across emerging market baskets.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
Oct 27	Tuesday	Fed two-day meeting begins; US durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales; France October consumer confidence; earnings from Coca-Cola, Robinhood, Boeing, Novartis, and HSBC
Oct 28	Wednesday	Fed rate decision and Warsh press conference (89–91% probability of pause); earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft; SK Hynix earnings and shareholder return measures; central banks of New Zealand and Canada (both expected to hike by 25 bps); UK budget
Oct 29	Thursday	ECB decision (expected pause); Amazon earnings; US September PCE inflation and Q3 GDP
Oct 30	Friday	Bank of Japan decision (expected pause; expected to declare victory on 2% target and signal December hike); Deribit monthly crypto options expiry; October month-end
This week		Over a third of S&P 500 companies report earnings
Nov 3	Tuesday	US midterm/general elections; according to CNN, US forces ready to launch Iran operations 96 hours after order
Nov 11	Wednesday	MSCI index removal announcements (Strategy and Metaplanet at risk)