Global Market Briefing: AI Capex Concerns, US Midterms, and the Binance Security Shock

Monday, November 2, 2026 | Daily briefing on AI capex fears, US midterms, Binance outflows, and tech earnings.

Daily Summary

Our View: Goldman Sachs’ weekend note provides the clearest articulation of the current debate: earnings growth is robust but no longer accelerating, and the growth rate of AI capital expenditures is peaking. Friday’s sell-off was the pricing in of this thesis, and today’s bounce does not change it; therefore, we do not view this relief rally as a trend reversal. Apple releases its earnings this evening, and as the only major tech company not spending billions on data centers, it occupies a unique position in this environment; a strong result could sustain the relief rally for a few days. Tomorrow brings the U.S. midterm elections, followed by Friday’s employment report; both will dictate direction during the week. On the Binance front, reopening withdrawals is a positive step, but the $3.64 billion outflow indicates that the damage to trust has not yet healed. The 3.6% drop in the BIST 100 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24 warrant close attention.

• Friday marked the worst day for the Nasdaq since June: down 3.46%. The chip index plummeted 7%,with Intel plunging 29%; AMD dropped 10.88%, ASML 6.55%, TSMC 5.95%, and SpaceX 6.37%. The Nasdaq closed October with a loss of approximately 7%, marking its worst month since April 2025.
• Goldman: Capex growth is peaking. The bank projects that major cloud providers’ capital expenditures will surge to $800 billion this year and $1.2 trillion by 2027, whereas S&P 500 earnings growth will slow from 30% in 2026 to 18% next year.
• Apple earnings are due this evening. Because the company does not spend billions on data centers, its stock has climbed for four months straight, surpassing Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company. Expectations stand at $113 billion in revenue and $2.00 earnings per share.
• Binance reopened withdrawals, seeing $3.64 billion exit. This accounts for 2.1% of the exchange’s assets. The company stated that it has replaced 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen using its own resources; full cryptographic proof of reserves is expected on November 3.
• Brent crude fell 3.3% to $109.70. Reports that Trump wants to allow more time for diplomacy after the midterms before returning to potential military actions influenced the move. Brent had gained 13.6% in October.
• Tomorrow is the U.S. midterm elections. Democrats are expected to take the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Standard Chartered warns that if Democrats capture both chambers, data center investments could face state-level hurdles.
• Fitch downgraded France’s outlook to negative, leaving the euro near 17-month lows. Central bank rate hikes are expected this week from Australia, the UK, and Sweden, while Norway is projected to hold steady.
• Today: U.S. October ISM manufacturing survey and Apple earnings. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announces its quarterly borrowing plan, followed by Friday’s jobs report (consensus expects a 65k increase).

Story of the Day

Goldman: Earnings Are Strong but No Longer Accelerating

October closed as the worst month for tech stocks since the tariff sell-off in April 2025: the Nasdaq finished the month down nearly 7%, and Friday’s 3.46% drop marked its sharpest decline since June. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index collapsed 7% on Friday, with Intel sliding 29%. Individual stocks fared even worse: AMD tumbled 10.88% to $504.80 (23.3% below its 52-week high), ASML dropped 6.55% to $1,565.90, TSMC fell 5.95% to $406.13, and SpaceX declined 6.37% to $134.72. The VIX spiked 12.91% to 19.42.

The core thesis behind this sell-off was best articulated by Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Ben Snider: Q3 earnings results highlighted the primary challenge facing equity investors—earnings growth is strong, but no longer accelerating. Similarly, third-quarter results reinforce our view that while AI capital expenditures will continue to grow, the growth rate of AI capex is peaking.

The figures substantiate this thesis. Goldman expects major cloud providers’ capital expenditures to nearly double to $800 billion this year and reach $1.2 trillion by 2027. In contrast, S&P 500 earnings per share growth is projected to slow from roughly 30% in 2026 to 18% next year. In short, spending continues to rise while earnings momentum decelerates, creating a valuation gap that puts pressure on stock prices. This dynamic has also spilled over into credit markets: concerns over negative free cash flow and the sheer scale of AI capex sharply increased the cost of corporate default insurance last week. Intel’s nearly 29% plunge on Friday further complicated the outlook for other chipmakers, including AMD.

This gives tonight’s Apple earnings report unique significance. As Reuters notes, because Apple has avoided spending billions of dollars on data centers, it has served as an oasis of relative calm; its stock has risen for four consecutive months, dethroning Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company.Analysts expect $113 billion in revenue and $2.00 EPS, up from $1.85 a year ago. The company may also provide early sales guidance for the iPhone 18, whose pre-orders began in mid-October. Trading at $344.63—just 2% below its 52-week high—Apple remains the most resilient member of the tech cohort.

Asia rebounded on these expectations: Korea’s KOSPI rose 2.62% to 5,881, Japan’s Nikkei finished flat (+0.04%), Hong Kong gained 0.56%, and Shanghai added 0.70%. China’s main index advanced 1.3% on news that regulators will meet with banks and brokerages on Monday to discuss market support measures.U.S. futures are also in positive territory, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.9%.

Binance Reopens Withdrawals, $3.64 Billion Exits

Binance resumed withdrawals gradually on Sunday. The first phase operated between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC,covering Bitcoin and assets across 15 other blockchains, including Ether, USDT, USDC, BNB, and XRP.Subsequent phases depend on each blockchain passing independent security and stability checks. The quantitative impact was immediate: customers withdrew $3.64 billion (2.1% of exchange assets) as soon as withdrawals reopened. Binance reported that withdrawal volumes have stabilized following the initial surge and that deposit levels remain “notable.”

The exchange’s balance sheet recovery has progressed rapidly. The company announced it has replaced 95% of the approximately $6.3 billion stolen using its own internal resources, up from 90% a day prior, and confirmed that balances for Bitcoin, Ether, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC are 100% backed. The remaining 5% consists of less liquid altcoins outside the top ten, which take longer to source at scale; the company continues to acquire them via open market and OTC channels. Funding sources included the corporate treasury, a portion of the futures insurance fund, and partial deployment of the emergency SAFU fund, which Binance has committed to replenishing to approximately $1 billion. Full cryptographic proof of reserves independently verifiable by users is expected on November 3. Security audits remain ongoing: Co-CEO Richard Teng stated on Friday that investigators have identified additional breach vectors beyond the initially suspected compromised employee laptop.

Reflecting on the industry-wide lesson from the incident, Richard Forss, CTO of global brokerage EXANTE,noted: “The crypto industry spent a decade making blockchains mathematically secure, yet it still operates on the assumption that an employee’s laptop can be trusted—an assumption that remains digital finance’s weakest link.”

A heated debate has also emerged around frozen assets. Tether froze over $1.56 billion in USDT, Circle roughly $823 million in USDC, and Ripple/World Liberty Financial also locked assets, totaling approximately $3 billion. Anton Golub, Head of Exchange Market Entry at Forte, expressed support for the action while pointing out a double standard: when Binance is hacked, the industry freezes $3 billion within hours, whereas smaller players facing hacks encounter court delays and regulatory hurdles—rules must apply equally to everyone.Golub pointed to the $290M Drift protocol exploit in April, where Circle faced criticism for not freezing the stolen USDC. Frank Hepworth, CEO of New Market Trading, highlighted issuer-side risk: every freeze order exposes issuers to liability if executed incorrectly, alongside an immense operational burden of separating legitimate funds from illicit ones. Irina Heaver, founder of NEOSLegal, drew the line: freezing USDT and USDC is only a first step; it prevents hackers from moving or laundering funds, but it does not automatically return them to Binance. Max Atallah, Managing Partner at Nordic Law, echoed this legally: a freeze order alone does not establish legal ownership of assets.

Tomorrow’s Midterms: What Matters for Markets?

The U.S. midterm elections take place tomorrow, with results starting to roll in during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Expectations point to Democrats capturing the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up.Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats to Democrats’ 45 (with two independents caucusing with Democrats); Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as pure toss-ups.

A key caveat: prediction markets missed the mark in last week’s Brazilian election, giving winner Lula only a ~20% probability. Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research at Standard Chartered, acknowledged this difficulty, noting that while polls point to strong anti-incumbency sentiment, this does not always translate cleanly into actual election outcomes—as we saw in Brazil and now Israel.

Markets are focusing on two distinct transmission channels:

1. AI Investments: Robertsen notes that if Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress, capital expenditure plans for data centers and AI infrastructure could face mounting state-level hurdles, and the U.S. debt ceiling debate could become one of the fiercest in recent years. Reuters echoes this risk, noting that a Democratic sweep implies heightened political friction for data centers.
2. Oil and Inflation: Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, constructs an opposing scenario: although Democrats are generally hostile to crypto regulatory legislation, a congressional majority could complicate efforts to de-escalate Middle East tensions or accelerate an end to the Iran conflict, which could ultimately weigh on oil prices and inflationary pressures, paving the way for a recovery in equities and crypto.

The crypto industry spent over $170 million on these elections, with $60 million allocated specifically to block former Senator Sherrod Brown’s return to the Senate. However, crypto remains a niche voter concern: a May poll showed only 1% of registered voters considered crypto a top priority, with the cost of living, jobs, and economy dominating the agenda. Andreja Cobeljic, Head of Derivatives Trading at AMINA Bank, highlighted an additional risk: hedge funds suffered notable losses in October, leaving markets with very little cushion to absorb electoral surprises.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street closed Friday sharply lower: the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.46% to 28,385, the S&P 500 dropped 1.82% to 7,580, the Dow lost 1.09% to 51,770, and the Russell 2000 slipped 1.66% to 2,812. The VIX jumped 12.91% to 19.42.

Tech damage was extensive: Nvidia fell 4.22% to $204.64 (RSI near oversold at 35.1), Microsoft lost 1.55% to $521.91, Amazon dipped 1.41% to $240.35, and Meta slid 1.53% to $614.99. Alphabet dropped 1.40% to $279.84, bringing its weekly loss to 12.61%, with its RSI hitting a deeply oversold 21.4 (31.4% below its 52-week high).

Energy bucked the trend: Exxon rose 2.16% to $187.25 and Chevron gained 1.75% to $235.52, both trading within 0.4%–0.7% of their highs with RSI readings in overbought territory at 73. Today, U.S. futures are positive ahead of Apple’s earnings; European futures point higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, DAX +0.2%, FTSE flat).

Asian markets rebounded on Monday: the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 0.5%. Korea’s KOSPI advanced 2.62% to 5,881, catching its breath after last month’s 14%–16% drop, though still 37.3% below its 52-week high. Japan’s Nikkei traded flat (+0.04% to +0.3%) at 63,316; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.56% to 23,424; and Shanghai gained 0.70% to 3,624. China’s main index rose 1.3% on reports of upcoming capital market support measures, though Shanghai’s RSI remains oversold at 28.3.

European markets diverged on Friday: the DAX fell 0.85% to 25,818 (though up 2.53% for the week), while the CAC 40 closed flat at 7,969 (up 2.40% weekly). Brazil’s Bovespa dropped 0.75% to 167,922, extending its weekly loss to 18.12% with an oversold RSI of 25.4.

The BIST 100 fell 3.63% to 10,760, bringing its weekly loss to 4.11% and monthly loss to 9.94%. The index sits 29.2% below its 52-week high, with an RSI of 24.1 indicating extreme oversold conditions. While technically extreme, MSCI’s index freeze decision and deteriorating global risk appetite continue to exert pressure.

Foreign Exchange

The DXY index hovers in the 101.84–101.94 range as major currencies trade in tight pre-election bands. The euro trades between 1.1159 and 1.1186, near 17-month lows, weighed down by Fitch revising France’s outlook from stable to negative after Friday’s close. The euro’s RSI stands at 37.6, 7% below its 52-week high. Sterling holds at 1.3387–1.3399, while the yen weakened 0.15% to 157.71–157.78.

The Australian dollar trades flat at 0.7024–0.7033 ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision, where the benchmark rate is expected to rise to a two-decade high of 4.85%. The New Zealand dollar sits at 0.5618–0.5625 after dropping 1.2% last week following a surprise hold by the RBNZ. Rate hikes are also expected this week from Sweden and the UK, with Norway expected to hold.

USD/TRY touched a new high of 49.96, with an RSI of 98.3 signaling extreme overbought conditions; the pair closed October up 1.9%.

Commodities

Oil dropped sharply on Monday: Brent tumbled 3.3% to $109.70 and WTI fell 3.4% to $100.58. The catalyst:reports that Trump wants to allow more time for diplomacy with Iran following tomorrow’s midterms, alongside ongoing talks between Iranian and Qatari mediators. However, tanker attacks in the Gulf persist, leaving the durability of the pullback uncertain. To provide scale, Brent had rallied 13.6% in October prior to this drop,leaving its monthly gain at 7.24% with an overbought RSI of 70.3.

Precious metals bounced: gold rose 0.43%–0.9% to $3,911–$3,916, recovering from Friday’s multi-year closing low. Gold had dropped 6.8% in October, amid market chatter that some investors were forced to sell gold to meet margin calls on equity positions. Silver gained 2.31% to $50.23, though its RSI remains deeply oversold at 22.4 (58.6% below its 52-week high). Palladium sits at $978 (RSI 20.9, the most stretched in the group), and platinum trades at $1,437.70. Copper gained 0.83% to $6.51, holding up resiliently just 4.66% below its peak. Natural gas trades at $2.91, up 10.04% on the week.

Crypto

Bitcoin rose 0.59% during Asian morning hours on Monday to $78,304, marking its third consecutive winning day. After dipping to $77,600 late Sunday night, buyers pushed prices back above $78,500 within hours.Among majors, ZEC led with a ~3% gain approaching $1,280; Ether rose 0.92% to $2,288.62; BNB added ~2% to $713; and XRP and TRX gained around 1%. Solana lagged, falling 0.92% to $94.74 (RSI 28.9,oversold, 24.2% below its 52-week high).

The recovery was macro-driven rather than crypto-specific, spurred by gains in Asian equities and U.S.futures. Jeff Mei of BTSE framed the week: “Given last week’s Fed commentary, we believe macro pressures will keep interest rates elevated, weighing on liquidity for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.” Mei also highlighted what to watch: “We will closely monitor whether tech stocks rebound this week or extend last week’s losses; a modest recovery could signal that we have already seen the bottom, presenting a potential buying opportunity for Bitcoin below $80,000.”

On the tracking of stolen funds, two developments stand out:

1. On Sunday, the attacker began converting 970,522 stolen Solana tokens (~$96 million) into Bitcoin via the Relay bridge—continuing the process of converting freezeable assets into unfreezeable ones.
2. Cross-chain swap network THORChain halted operations across 10 of its 13 chains over the weekend after the attacker used the network to route stolen funds.

According to TRM Labs’ breakdown, the stolen assets comprise 18,270 BTC (~$1.47 billion), 200,630 ETH,1.875 billion USDT, 823 million USDC, 233.46 million XRP, and 970,500 SOL. The 19 Bitcoin wallets holding the funds remain dormant.

On the regulatory front, the election is the pivotal event this week. The crypto sector’s priority, in the words of Chainlink Policy Director Taylor Barr, is ensuring rules are written “in pen, not pencil.” Kevin Wysocki, Head of Policy at Anchorage Digital, believes a market structure bill will resurface, though likely differing from the Clarity Act that stalled in the Senate last month: it will likely feature stricter treatment of decentralized finance and tighter vertical integration, posing challenges for certain industry players. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, summarized expectations: “There will be a lot of oversight, but not necessarily a lot of legislation passing.”

Second Story: Messages to the Hacker’s Wallet

The Bitcoin side of the Binance exploit has transformed into an unusual public spectacle, thanks to a unique technical feature of Bitcoin. The 19 wallets holding the 18,270 stolen Bitcoins have not sent a single coin since Thursday, but micro-transactions worth less than a dollar have continually flooded the addresses, each carrying a custom note from a stranger.

Thanks to an output type called OP_RETURN, Bitcoin allows senders to attach short messages of up to 80 bytes permanently to a transaction on the blockchain. According to Chainalysis data cited by CoinDesk, one entity has repeatedly sent “Help me bro” to each of the 19 wallets three times since Friday—dispatching 1,000 satoshis per wallet at 11:43 and 16:03 UTC on Friday, and another 1,111 satoshis early Sunday morning. In total, the sender spent roughly $46 in Bitcoin plus transaction fees to deliver a three-word plea to a hacker assessed by the FBI to be operating on behalf of North Korea.

Others had different ideas. A message arriving twice on Friday provided the attacker with a link to a swap site,advising them to launder their funds through it and never return them to Binance’s founder. Another message,sent by an individual posing as a Turkish crypto influencer, promoted their own token and claimed donations would fund their ecosystem’s development. On Saturday morning, another sender wrote: “Happy Hack-alloween, satoshis instead of candy please.” None received a reply.

This detail is more than just an amusing anecdote; it concretely highlights the fundamental difference between Bitcoin and stablecoins: Tether and Circle could freeze their respective tokens within hours because they feature centralized issuer controls. Bitcoin has no issuer and no freeze mechanism; coins can only be intercepted once they reach an exchange, OTC desk, or swapping service. That same characteristic allows anyone in the world to permanently write messages to those wallets.

For Turkish investors, the key takeaway is that custody choice is not a technical footnote but a direct risk decision: a freezeable asset is recoverable, but that same mechanism applies equally to legitimate users; an unfreezeable asset offers absolute freedom, but is exceedingly difficult to recover once stolen.

Levels to Watch

• Apple Earnings (Tonight): Expectations are $113 billion in revenue and $2.00 EPS. As the only major tech company not spending heavily on data centers, it stands apart in this environment; watch for iPhone 18 guidance.
• U.S. Midterms (Tomorrow): Democrats are expected to take the House, while the Senate is a toss-up.According to Standard Chartered, a sweep of both chambers could introduce state-level hurdles for data center investments.
• Bitcoin ($80,000): According to BTSE, sub-$80k represents a potential accumulation zone, though confirmation depends on a tech stock recovery. Immediate overhead resistance remains at $82,500.
• Binance Proof of Reserves (Nov 3): Full cryptographic report expected tomorrow. Reopening withdrawals is positive, but the $3.64 billion outflow shows trust has not fully recovered.
• U.S. Jobs Report (Friday): Consensus expects a 65k increase and 4.2% unemployment, following September’s disappointing 29k print. Implied probability of a December Fed rate hike has slipped to 72%.
• BIST 100 (10,760): RSI sits at a deeply oversold 24.1, with the index 29% below its peak. Technical conditions are severely stretched, but MSCI uncertainty and global risk sentiment continue to pressure the market.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Development
Nov 2	Monday	U.S. October ISM Manufacturing survey; Apple earnings ($113B revenue, $2.00 EPS expected)
Nov 3	Tuesday	U.S. Midterm Elections (results begin rolling in Wednesday Asian hours); RBA rate decision (expected hike to 4.85%); Binance full cryptographic proof of reserves report
Nov 4	Wednesday	U.S. Treasury announces quarterly borrowing plan (near-term issuance expansion in focus)
Nov 5	Thursday	Rate hikes expected from the RBOE (UK) and Riksbank (Sweden); Norway expected to hold
Nov 6	Friday	U.S. October Jobs Report (65k job addition, 4.2% unemployment expected)
Nov 11	Wednesday	MSCI announces index constituent removals (Strategy and Metaplanet under risk)
December	—	Fed rate hike probability at 72%; Bank of Japan also widely expected to hike