Global Market Brief: Tech Sector Repricing, US Midterm Volatility & Crypto Liquidity

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Daily briefing on tech margin pressures, US midterm volatility, chip shortages,and crypto liquidity risks.

Daily Summary

Our View: The Nasdaq 100 is down 10.75% from its peak and technically in correction territory; Taiwan is down 13.3%, and Korea is down 39.9%. This is now a repricing that goes beyond individual corporate stories.Apple’s earnings beat expectations, but the stock fell 2.8% post-market because memory chip costs will squeeze gross margins—meaning the chip shortage is no longer just a profit driver for manufacturers, but a cost squeeze for buyers. Today is Election Day, and the options market is reading this correctly: volatility spikes for the November 4 expiration before normalizing right after, indicating short-lived volatility rather than anything permanent. Bitcoin is below $77,000, where the 50-week moving average is critical; on the downside,the 200-day moving average needs to hold. We do not find it prudent to increase positions until election outcomes become clear.

• Nasdaq 100 in correction territory: 10.75% down from its peak. The chip index extended its three-day slide to 12%; AMD lost 7.52% yesterday and is down 26.36% for the month, while the Taiwan stock market is 13.3% off its peak.
• Apple beat expectations, but the stock fell 2.8%. The company projected lower gross margins for the holiday quarter due to rising memory chip costs, and its services revenue growth forecast fell noticeably short of expectations. Greater China business grew by 21%.
• US midterm elections are today, with results arriving tomorrow during Asian hours. Polls project Democrats to take the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up; Polymarket and Kalshi price a 76-77% probability for Democrats to retain the Senate.
• The options market is pricing in short-lived volatility. Bitcoin’s implied volatility for the Nov 4 expiry stands at 43.5%, dropping to around 36% for subsequent expiries—signaling expected volatility on election day, but no permanent surge. Open interest remains flat, meaning investors are buying insurance rather than opening new speculative bets.
• Binance spent half of its emergency fund. The SAFU wallet dropped from 15,000 bitcoins to 7,500,valued at approximately $580 million. According to the exchange’s own rules, falling below $800 million triggers a replenishment, but no timeline was provided. Customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion.
• The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent recovered to $105.65 after plunging over 7% on Monday. The pullback in oil provides relief on the inflation front, but geopolitical risks remain active.
• Australia raised rates to 4.85%, the highest since 2008. The vote split 6-3, and the bank signaled it may pause for a while; total hikes this year reach 125 bps. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates to 4.00% on Thursday.
• Today: France September budget balance; Germany 5-year and UK 10-year bond auctions; earnings from Pfizer, DuPont, Amgen, AMD, and Block; US midterm elections.

Story of the Day

The chip shortage is now hitting buyers, too

Apple beat expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter on Monday evening and projected 7–10% year-over-year revenue growth for the December quarter. Despite this, the stock dropped 2.81% post-market to $328.81,driven by two key factors. First, margins: the company projected lower gross margins for the critical holiday quarter, citing rising memory chip costs. Second, services revenue: the growth forecast fell clearly below Wall Street expectations. On the bright side, Greater China performance was strong, with the region’s business growing 21%. The stock sits 4% below last month’s peak.

This detail adds a significant new dimension to recent debates. At the end of October, SK Hynix and Samsung announced that their memory chip supply is sold out through 2029, with demand doubling supply, suggesting the shortage could persist until 2030. At the time, that news was read as a massive positive for producers.Apple’s guidance reveals the flip side of the coin: the exact same shortage raises costs and squeezes margins for the companies purchasing those chips. In other words, AI-driven memory demand is no longer just an investment theme; it is a direct cost item for hardware manufacturers. A Reuters note last week highlighted this precise risk: the infrastructure race is not only straining the sector, but price hikes are also squeezing global demand for consumer devices like smartphones and PCs, ultimately impacting the end consumer.

Market data reflects the scale of this repricing. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.39% on Monday to 27,990—down 10.75% from its October 6 peak, placing it technically in correction territory—and has lost 4.4% over the last five sessions. The S&P communication services sector is down 22% from its May peak, and the tech sector is 12% below its October 6 peak. Among individual stocks, AMD fell 7.52% to $466.84, bringing its monthly loss to 26.36% (29.1% below its 52-week high); Microsoft retreated 2.83% to $507.12; ASML lost 2.54% to $1,526.14; and TSMC dropped 1.85% to $398.63. Nvidia is down 1.26% at $202.06, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.3, sitting in oversold territory. Asia followed suit today: South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.66% to 5,645, and Taiwan’s benchmark dropped 3.59% to 43,308—putting the Taiwanese market 13.3% below its early October record and on the verge of confirming a technical correction. Bank of America analysts pinpoint the driver: equity outflows from Korea and Taiwan remain dominant as anxieties grow over the sustainability of the tech cycle.

Election Day: What is the market pricing in?

US midterm elections are underway today, with initial results trickling in tomorrow as Asian markets open. Polls project Democrats to take the House, while the Senate remains uncertain; prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 77% and 76% probability of controlling the Senate, respectively. However, traders place less confidence in these figures than previously, given that these same markets misread the Brazilian election, assigning Lula only a ~20% chance of winning. An ING note frames today accurately: Tuesday is merely the day before a much larger day; by tomorrow, the market will have received guidance on both the midterm results and the US Treasury’s quarterly borrowing announcement.

The market’s actual expectations are reflected in options pricing, and the picture is clear. Bitcoin’s implied volatility term structure normally slopes upward because a longer timeframe allows more room for price movement. Yet right now, options expiring immediately after election day on November 4 price volatility at 43.5%, while subsequent expiries sit around 36%; the curve drifts back toward 36 by late November. Ether shows a similar pattern. Traders are pricing in an uptick in volatility as initial results and network calls come in,but they expect no permanent turbulence. On the futures side, open interest remained largely flat over the past 24 hours at $58 billion for bitcoin and $23.58 billion for ether. Read alongside the volatility spike, this indicates that traders are not opening new speculative bets; they are simply buying insurance on existing positions. Data tracking platform Laevitas comments that flat open interest, shifting funding rates, and put options pricing 5 points higher than calls suggest layered hedging demand on existing risk—a type of demand that historically evaporates rapidly once the triggering event passes.

There are two opposing views regarding the outcome’s impact. Standard Chartered Co-Head of FX Research Steve Englander argues that a surprise Republican sweep would push yields and the dollar higher.Conversely, Spectra Markets President Brent Donnelly points out that investors are closely watching the Texas gubernatorial race, where Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa has proposed a moratorium on data center construction. This risk is already filtering into prices: Vistra, which supplies electricity to data centers, is down 31% from its peak last November and off 4% over the past month, while data center funds are 21–24% below their highs. Risk Dimensions Chief Investment Officer Mark Connors holds a contrasting view, stating that investors spend too much time trying to trade election outcomes—time wasted, particularly regarding year-end strategy. He contends that even if Democrats sweep both chambers, crypto adoption enjoys sufficient structural backing from regulators and major financial institutions, pointing to investments like Intercontinental Exchange and Robinhood offering round-the-clock trading, alongside bank initiatives to build stablecoin payment systems. Connors maintains his 2027 bitcoin target at $180,000 and his 2030 base case at $500,000.

European bond market faces a new wave of supply

The European leg of the AI financing debate came into sharp focus this morning. US tech giants increasingly turn to European investors to fund AI capital expenditures, driving up corporate debt supply and potentially lifting borrowing costs for other corporations and governments alike. Alphabet launched its second euro-denominated bond sale of the year on Monday, following a €9 billion issuance in May. Investors expect other major cloud providers—including Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft—to ramp up non-US borrowings. Marion Le Morhedec, CIO of Fixed Income at Fidelity International, confirms the momentum: Europe has lagged the US in tech issuance, but activity is accelerating, with a projected pipeline of €40 billion to €60 billion.

The numbers highlight the divergence: US markets have absorbed over $250 billion in tech-driven debt issuance so far this year, an 81% increase year-over-year, while Europe totals $39.3 billion, up roughly 5% annually. BNP Paribas expects euro-denominated investment-grade corporate net supply to surge 83% in 2027 to €192 billion, up from €105 billion this year. Giulio Baratta, Global Co-Head of Investment Grade Financing at the bank, notes that overseas issuances by US firms will account for €80–90 billion of the 2027 total, driven largely by hyperscalers. He describes the market impact: when one of these companies enters the market with a multi-billion-dollar transaction executed in a single day, everyone notices, and everyone must pay attention.

The pressure is already visible: swap spreads on the ICE BofA Euro Investment Grade index widened by 11 basis points last month, meaning investors demand higher compensation to hold corporate debt. Vontobel Portfolio Manager Christian Hantel observes a defensive adaptation: non-hyperscaler corporate issuers are shying away from long maturities, trimming bonds that would normally carry 10-year tenors down to 5–7 years.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted last week that borrowing by major cloud providers has contributed to the rise in sovereign bond yields. Jonathan Owen, Portfolio Manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, summarizes the core focus: people are hyper-focused on the sheer volume of AI-driven supply we are absorbing over the long term and what it means for government bonds.

Market Tour

Equities

• Wall Street closed mixed on Monday: Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39% to 27,990; S&P 500 lost 0.51% to 7,541; Russell 2000 dipped 0.21% to 2,806. The Dow decoupled, rising 0.41% to 51,984. The VIX jumped 8.91% to 21.15, marking a 38.14% monthly gain and signaling distinct nervousness. Individually, AMD dropped 7.52% to $466.84 (RSI 34.6, oversold); Microsoft slipped 2.83% to $507.12 (RSI 40.1). Energy stocks plunged alongside oil: Exxon dropped 4.05% to $179.67, and Chevron fell 3.29% to $227.77. Alphabet remained flat, up 0.30% at $278.99, but its RSI sits at an oversold extreme of 21.2, 31.6% below its 52-week high. Conversely, Amazon gained 2.20% to $245.63; Tesla rose 1.00% to $403.82; SpaceX added 1.22% to $136.37. Today’s earnings feature Pfizer and DuPont pre-market, alongside Amgen, AMD, and Block post-market. US futures are down 0.1%, trading lower for the fourth consecutive day.
• Asia dropped sharply on Tuesday: The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index lost 1.4% to hit its lowest level since October 23. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled as much as 4.1% intraday before closing down 3.66% at 5,645; Taiwan fell 3.59% to 43,308, leaving the Taiwan market 13.3% below its early-October record and confirming a technical correction. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 1.39% to 3,588 as investors deemed recent official support measures insufficient to rescue the major index from its weakest annual performance. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Australia outperformed, rising 0.3%; its central bank raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.85% (the highest since December 2008) in a 6–3 split vote,leading some analysts to expect a pause following this year’s cumulative 125 bps in hikes. European futures are in the red: pan-European -0.9%, DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.2%. On Monday, the DAX gained 0.63% to 25,981, and the CAC 40 added 0.98% to 8,048. BIST 100 rose 1.88% to 10,962, staging a relief bounce following recent heavy selling; its RSI sits at the oversold threshold of 30.1, with the index 27.9% below its 52-week high.

Foreign Exchange

• The Dollar Index traded in a 101.75–101.81 band, staging a mild recovery after hitting a one-month low on Monday. Sim Moh Siong, FX Strategist at OCBC, frames the dynamic: cheaper energy is reshaping currency dynamics, while AI anxieties and US election risks reinforce our view that the dollar will remain supported. Euro gained 0.36% to 1.1197, though its RSI at 34.7 sits near oversold territory, 6.9% below its 52-week high. Sterling held between 1.3401 and 1.3411; UK manufacturing data showed the sector starting the final quarter with its strongest production growth in over two years, and Reuters consensus expects the BOE to hike rates from 3.75% to 4.00% on Thursday—marking the first increase since August 2023, when inflation sat at more than triple the target. The standout move belongs to the yuan: the PBoC announced an increase in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio, triggering a 0.34% depreciation in the offshore yuan to 6.67, its steepest daily drop since May. Prior to this, the currency completed a 13-day winning streak—its longest run since 1996. The Australian dollar fell 0.64% to 0.6984 despite the rate hike, as the move was fully priced in and the split vote coupled with pause signals weighed on sentiment. The yen remained flat at 157.82 due to the holiday, while the Swiss franc strengthened 0.82% to 0.8180. USD/TRY touched a new high of 49.98, with an extreme overbought RSI of 98.4.

Commodities

• Oil rebounded on Tuesday following Monday’s steep 7%+ sell-off: Brent rose 0.84% to $105.65, and WTI added 0.92% to $97.35. Monday’s drop stemmed from optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks, while the rebound was triggered by developments undermining that optimism: a US official confirmed to Reuters that the US launched “defensive” strikes against Iranian positions on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomacy and military action thus continue simultaneously in the eight-month-old conflict.Brent’s weekly loss stands at 8.77%, with its RSI tumbling rapidly out of overbought territory to 44.5; its monthly gain remains at 3.33%. This pullback in oil provides relief on inflation, supporting falling bond yields: the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.894%, and the 30-year fell to 5.269%, with both registering monthly declines between 6.4% and 7.3%.
• Selling persisted across precious metals: gold fell 1.02% to $3,929.10; silver dropped 2.85% to $49.28,breaking below the $50 threshold with a weekly loss of 8.93% (59.4% below its 52-week high); platinum slipped 2.08% to $1,428.70; and palladium fell 2.13% to $944.50, with its RSI hitting a deep oversold reading of 19.2 (56.5% below its peak). Copper fell 2.13% to $6.40, remaining the most resilient commodity group, though still under pressure. Natural gas traded at $2.88, up 10.57% for the week.

Crypto

• Bitcoin dropped 2.25% on Tuesday morning to $76,605, wiping out Monday’s recovery and trading below Sunday night’s $77,600 level. Among majors, ZEC suffered the steepest drop, losing nearly 10% to $1,140 after leading gains on Monday; HYPE fell 5% to $84; Solana retreated 3.42% to $91.56 (deep in oversold territory with an RSI of 25.8, 26.7% below its 52-week high). BNB slipped 2% below the $700 mark; Ether lost 1.91% to $2,247.51; Dogecoin fell 2.73% to 7.38 cents. XRP remained flat near $1.2498,while TRX gained 2% to stand as the only major in the green. The sell-off originated outside crypto: deep losses in US tech stocks dragged down Asian equity markets, and crypto followed suit.
• Conversely, supportive data continues to accumulate, which will matter post-election. Chris Sullivan,founder of Hyperion Decimus, identified roughly 29,220 bitcoin equivalents in short positions on the CME (approx. $2.2 billion) alongside $21.99 billion in short-side buying volume over a 24-hour window—a positioning setup that creates the risk of a short squeeze if prices rise. However, the Binance exploit complicated the interpretation of these figures. Sullivan points to a second development: massive amounts of bitcoin have been withdrawn from exchanges into cold storage since the attack. His assessment is clear: this is very positive, though not immediate. Having fewer coins on exchanges means less ready-to-sell bitcoin when demand returns, and Sullivan believes these outflows, combined with prior short positioning, will support prices over the coming months. He adds a conditional caveat: short-term weakness must hold the 200-day moving average.
• Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, points to another indicator of resilience: bitcoin notched its seventh consecutive weekly close above its 50-week moving average despite an exploit exceeding $6 billion on the world’s largest crypto exchange. Seasonality is also supportive: according to CoinGlass data,bitcoin’s median November gain since 2013 (excluding the 2013 outlier) is roughly 8.8%, and both the S&P 500 and bitcoin have historically rallied post-midterms. On the flip side, flow data flashed a warning:spot bitcoin funds saw roughly $643 million in outflows on Friday, marking the largest daily outflow since June.

Binance and Regulatory Developments

1. The Emergency Fund: The wallet for Binance’s User Protection Fund (SAFU) dropped to just over 7,500 bitcoins following four transactions on October 31, down from 15,000 bitcoins in February. At a ~$77,000 price, the remaining balance is valued at $580 million. Binance’s own SAFU documentation states that if the fund’s value drops below $800 million due to price fluctuations, it gets rebalanced to $1 billion; however, this rule does not explicitly cover fund expenditures. Binance announced on October 31 that it would execute a partial SAFU utilization and committed to returning the fund to ~$1 billion, but provided no timeline or details on how much of the insurance fund was used. Customers have withdrawn a net $4.72 billion since the exchange reopened.
2. Decentralization Debate: Arbitrum’s Security Council on Friday moved 8,425 ether and 74 million ARB (approx. $30 million) from an address linked to the Binance exploit without the attacker’s signature. The method is noteworthy: the 12-member council, elected by ARB token holders, used its 9-signature upgrade authority over the network’s contracts to temporarily modify Arbitrum’s Inbox contract code. They inserted a function allowing the council to submit transactions appearing to originate from the attacker’s address, transferred the assets to a holding address in two transactions, and restored the original code in the same transaction. Security firm Zealynx monitored the transactions and noted a critical takeaway: the assumption that an address only moves when its private key signs is only valid until you look at who controls the upgrade path. For a network marketed as decentralized, this is a major caveat—though the council has done this before, moving 30,766 ether from a KelpDAO exploiter in April.

Story 2: Crypto sector election spending and the legitimacy crisis

The crypto sector spent over $170 million in this election cycle, the bulk of it flowing through the Fairshake super PAC and its affiliates. An analysis by UC Berkeley Law lecturer Hermine Wong in CoinDesk highlights inconsistencies in how this money was distributed, sparking an internal debate within the sector. Ohio voters participated in one of only three races nationwide where ad spending outside a presidential contest exceeded $500 million; crypto super PACs poured $63 million directly into this race for a single objective: preventing former Senator Sherrod Brown from returning to the Senate. Of that total, $56 million came from the Fairshake network, and $7 million from the Winklevoss twins’ committee.

Wong’s question is straightforward: Brown lost his seat in 2024 and cast no votes for or against crypto throughout the 119th Congress; yet Fairshake announced its largest funding pledge aimed at blocking Brown days after Senate Democrats blocked the Clarity Act—a vote Brown did not participate in. The inconsistency is stark in the numbers: there are 29 incumbent senators holding an “F” grade in 2026, four of whom are running for reelection and all of whom voted against even debating the Clarity Act; Fairshake spent zero money targeting any of them. General election spending targeting the 10 “other political figures” holding an “F” grade alongside Brown was also zero. Conversely, Fairshake’s second-largest general election race took place in Nebraska, where it spent $13.5 million against Dan Osborn—who holds a “B” grade. Wong’s conclusion: an “F” grade does not guarantee an attack, and a questionable “B” grade does not prevent one; thus, the grading system does not dictate where the money goes. In 2024, over 80% of Fairshake’s funds came from just three companies. By comparison, Wong points to the League of Conservation Voters’ grading system—published since 1970 with a public methodology and committee members—and recalls the crypto world’s own guiding principle: Don’t trust, verify. For investors in Turkey, the takeaway is that the sector’s regulatory standing depends not only on election outcomes, but also on the legitimacy of its lobbying structure; while the sheer volume of spending can generate political influence, it simultaneously breeds internal trust issues.

Key Levels to Watch

• Nasdaq 100 (-10.75% from peak): Technical correction territory. Taiwan is down 13.3% and Korea 39.9%; this is a repricing extending far beyond individual corporate narratives.
• Bitcoin (200-day moving average): Sullivan’s confirmation threshold. Additional weakness requires holding this moving average; if it holds, coins withdrawn from exchanges combined with the $2.2 billion short position will provide support in coming months.
• Option Volatility (Nov 4): Implied volatility stands at 43.5%, dropping to 36% for subsequent expiries.Election-day volatility is priced in, but no permanent surge; per Laevitas, such hedging demand evaporates quickly once the event passes.
• Apple Gross Margin: Memory chip costs will squeeze margins in the holiday quarter. The first concrete sign that the chip shortage is now hurting the buyer side; monitor other device manufacturers.
• Binance SAFU Fund ($580 million): The exchange’s own rules trigger replenishment below $800 million,but expenditures are unaddressed and no timeline was given. Net customer outflows reached $4.72 billion.
• European Corporate Bond Supply: BNP Paribas expects an 83% surge in 2027, largely driven by US tech firms. Swap spreads widened 11 bps last month, marking a new pressure channel for Eurozone borrowing costs.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Development
Nov 3	Tuesday	US midterm elections (initial results tomorrow during Asian hours); France September budget balance; Germany 5-year and UK 10-year bond auctions; earnings from Pfizer and DuPont (pre-market), Amgen, AMD, and Block (post-market); Japanese markets closed for holiday.
Nov 4	Wednesday	US Treasury quarterly borrowing plan announced; bitcoin option expiry (implied volatility spiked at 43.5%).
Nov 5	Thursday	Bank of England rate decision (expected hike from 3.75% to 4.00%, first since August 2023); Norway and Sweden central bank meetings.
Nov 6	Friday	US October employment report (expected +65k jobs, 4.2% unemployment).
Nov 11	Wednesday	MSCI index rebalancing announcements (Strategy and Metaplanet at risk).
Mid-Nov	—	Anthropic IPO pricing expected; company reported $567M operating loss in Q3 alongside $895.4B compute and infrastructure commitments.
December	—	Fed rate hike probability at 72%; Bank of Japan also expected to hike.