In the past days, there has been a general retreat in crypto coins. After this decline in all crypto coins, we can say that prices have become advantageous for investors who expect an upward rise. What investors are wondering right now is to find out which coin will rise from here. We know that cryptocurrencies move correlated. We can say that such rises and falls usually act together. There was a general rise in February. However, Icrypex Quantitative Analyst Ozan KARA’s Crypto Dictionary YouTube channel in February As he mentioned in the interview, Ethereum showed the most rise among crypto coins. There was a rise in Ethereum from the $181 levels to the $280 levels. Ozan KARA had pointed to the $230 levels. The analysis was carried out with the prediction that there will be no general increase in crypto coins. With the increase in crypto coins, ethereum also showed a higher increase than expected. The expectation here was created by ARIMA time series analysis. Without including external data in the model, we created the model by analyzing only the actual closing data, “which altcoin will rise more than the others? What will be the situation against Bitcoin?”
According to the model we created, litecoin and ethereum follow a downward trend compared to bitcoin. The GARCH model we created for the volatility forecast indicates that the volatility will decrease, while the ARIMA model indicates that the downtrend will continue. Ripple is also in line with litecoin. The model shows that if there is no positive news about Ripple, the movement will slow down and continue to the downside.
The model shows that the upward break of this decline will occur with bitcoin and ethereum. Ethereum went through a very volatile period and experienced a rapid pullback after a serious rise. The reason for this movement of ethereum, which is priced around $ 199 at the time of writing, is the volatility clusters that we encounter a lot in the financial markets. In other words, the reason why a crypto money experiences a rapid retreat after a rapid increase is because large movements of large movements follow small movements.
The ARIMA pattern indicates that the uptrend will continue. Although it is not as active as last month, when we examine the time series analysis of the cross rates, it shows that Ethereum is pricing 12% above other altcoins, and that this rise may increase in a general rise that crypto coins will experience.
In Bitcoin, we can say that the upward trend that started in January has not been broken and the rise will continue. However, we need to remind you that the levels it is at are critical. By examining the support and resistance levels in our daily analysis, you can follow the upward trend that the ARIMA pattern in ethereum and bitcoin is pointing towards.