Daily Market Pulse: SK Hynix Crash, Fed Split, and Tech Earnings Double-Header

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Daily briefing on Asian chip sell-offs, Fed rate split, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and Bitcoin’s resilience.

Daily Summary

SK Hynix increased its profit by 557%, yet its stock fell 17%. Quarterly profit surged more than sixfold, but it missed expectations because anticipations for AI demand were set even higher. The KOSPI dropped an additional 11–12%, triggering a circuit breaker and heading toward a record two-day loss; its July loss stands at 35%, marking the worst month in its history. Ahead of its results tomorrow, Samsung slipped 8–12%, SoftBank fell 10%, and Kioxia dropped 14%.

Bitcoin once again did not participate in this crash. The price rose 1% to $63,800; for the second time in seven days, crypto held its ground despite a sharp unwind in the AI trade. This relationship, which moved alongside chip stocks throughout July, broke to the downside twice in five sessions. K33 notes that the Fed’s impact on bitcoin this week might be more limited compared to past periods. On a monthly basis, Bitcoin is up 6%, the S&P 500 is flat, and the chip basket is down 20%.

The Fed decides today in what is described as the most uncertain meeting in years. The market prices in a 70% probability that rates will remain unchanged and a 30% chance of a surprise 25-basis-point hike. This split stems from Warsh reducing forward guidance; since 2015, only two meetings have faced such divided expectations. The analysts’ framework: even the slightest dovish signal from Warsh could allow bitcoin to maintain its relatively strong performance.

The ceasefire broke down, and oil jumped $3. The US and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed groups in Iraq blamed for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities; additionally, the US announced it thwarted a surprise Iranian ballistic missile attack against US troops. Brent rose 3.8% to $87.24, and WTI moved up to $82. Iran rejected Oman’s Gulf-backed plan for joint management of Hormuz. Only five vessels passed through Hormuz on Tuesday.

Apple briefly reached a $5 trillion market valuation. It became the second company to cross this threshold after Nvidia; the stock has gained 25% year-to-date, outperforming the rest of the Magnificent Seven. Apple’s success comes from its strategy: it chose not to join the AI spending race that is eroding rivals’ cash flows, opting instead to leverage Google’s technology and focus on customer experience. It will report earnings on Thursday evening.

The week’s double peak begins today. Immediately following the Fed decision, Meta and Microsoft report after the close; these two are at the heart of major cloud spending and will determine whether the damage caused by Alphabet and Tesla last week can be repaired. Thursday brings core PCE, Q2 GDP growth, Amazon, and Apple. Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped between $63,000 and $64,000; reclaiming $64,000 opens up an upside move, while losing it brings $60,700 into play.

Main Agenda

The SK Hynix Paradox: Profit Surges Sixfold, Stock Drops a Fifth. The Asian chip sell-off reached panic proportions on Wednesday, and at its center was yet another earnings paradox. SK Hynix increased its Q2 operating profit by 557%—more than a sixfold growth—and achieved record revenue; despite this, the stock plummeted 17% because analyst expectations for AI-driven demand were even higher. This is the exact same skepticism that erased $797 billion from major US tech stocks last Thursday, now reaching the memory manufacturers supplying the hardware. The KOSPI fell another 11–12%, triggering a 20-minute trading halt—which has become a common occurrence in recent days—and extending Tuesday’s 10% drop into a record two-day loss. After skyrocketing in the first half of the year on AI enthusiasm, the index remains the world’s top performer YTD, but its 35% drop in July marks its worst month ever. Ahead of tomorrow’s results, Samsung dropped 8–12%, SoftBank 10%, Kioxia 14%, and Tokyo Electron 12.6%; TSMC slipped 3.9%. Kieron Poon of Aberdeen attributes the sell-off to “ongoing deleveraging in Korea and weakening sentiment toward global tech stocks,” while adding that he maintains his positive long-term outlook. Similarly, David Riedel of Riedel Research describes the sell-off as “giving back some of the froth in the AI market,” stating that “memory chipmakers will be fine; they just need to give back some of the sudden gains.” Results from Meta and Microsoft after the close today will serve as the true test of whether this sell-off is based on justified concern or an overreaction.

Bitcoin Decouples for a Second Time: July Correlation Breaks Downward. The most notable aspect of this sell-off has once again been Bitcoin’s refusal to join in. The price rose 1% on Wednesday to $63,800, marking the second time in seven days that crypto remained resilient despite the sharp unwind in the AI trade. Throughout July, the connection was almost mechanical: when chip stocks rose, bitcoin rose; when they fell, bitcoin fell. Now, this link has broken downward twice in five sessions; bitcoin barely moved during last week’s Magnificent Seven sell-off and rose during this one. Two instances do not prove a permanent break, but it is a pattern worth watching—especially since bitcoin miners remain linked to AI data center demand, meaning the connection is not entirely severed. Still, the correlation that defined July no longer holds on the downside. K33 explains this through positioning: while the Nasdaq entered July with strong momentum and increasingly stretched positioning, bitcoin continued to consolidate near multi-year lows. These different starting points make a weakening correlation natural, suggesting that the Fed meeting’s impact on bitcoin this week may be more limited than in past periods of policy uncertainty. The figures confirm the divergence: Bitcoin is up 6% month-to-date, the S&P 500 is virtually flat, and a basket of chip stocks is down nearly 20%. Bitcoin tends to move with equities when stress is driven by macro factors and interest rates, but decouples when stress is stock-specific. The debate around earnings and capex is precisely stock-specific, and today’s Fed decision will test whether this decoupling is here to stay.

Fed Today: The Most Divided Expectations in Years. The macro highlight of the week is today’s Fed decision, described as the most uncertain meeting in years. The market prices in roughly a 70% probability of rates holding steady and a 30% chance of a surprise 25-basis-point rate hike. This unusual division stems from Warsh reducing forward guidance: across every Fed meeting since 2015, there have been only two instances where market expectations were this divided on the outcome. The general consensus leans toward no rate hike, but the messaging will matter more than the rate action itself; if the central bank keeps rates unchanged while delivering hawkish guidance, the US dollar could retain its support. For crypto, the framework is as follows: even the slightest dovish signal from Warsh could allow bitcoin to sustain its relative strength. The inverse scenario is equally clear: if Warsh delivers a surprise 25-basis-point hike, it would catch nearly a third of the market off-guard, triggering sharp downward volatility in bitcoin, tech equities, and leveraged assets; in that event, a drop toward the $60,700 zone is the most likely outcome. The highest-probability scenario is Warsh issuing a highly disciplined, minimal statement that refrains from offering a timeline for future rate paths. This would keep macro uncertainty elevated and favor a gradual rise in bitcoin toward $65,000. Immediately after the decision, Thursday brings the core PCE data—the Fed’s preferred inflation metric—alongside Q2 GDP growth, making today and tomorrow the highest-volatility window of the week.

Ceasefire Broken: Recent Fragile Calm Shattered This Morning. The fragile calm of recent days dissipated this morning. The US and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed groups in Iraq held responsible for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, prompting Iran to warn that the accusations represent a “major miscalculation.” The strikes occurred hours after the US military announced it had thwarted a surprise Iranian ballistic missile attack targeted at its forces in the region. Oil reacted immediately, breaking a three-day decline as Brent crude jumped 3.8% to $87.24 and WTI rose 3.4% to $81.99. These developments dampen hopes for a rapid de-escalation in the Gulf. The diplomatic front also appears closed: Oman had submitted a Gulf-backed Hormuz joint management proposal to Iran that included voluntary fee collection for transit through the strait, but Iran rejected the proposal yesterday, effectively ending its chances of success. Physical conditions remain tense as well, with only five commercial vessels navigating through Hormuz on Tuesday. Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank commented: “We expect Brent to fluctuate within an $80–$100 range in the near term as conflicts ebb and flow; this series of stop-and-start negotiations means the Hormuz blockade will not be fully lifted, so even if tensions ease, oil could establish a higher floor around $80.” On the supply side, two additional developments emerged: US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 3.3 million barrels last week, and according to Reuters sources, OPEC+ may pause production increases for three months starting in October once it completes reversing its voluntary output cuts.

Apple at $5 Trillion: Victory for Staying Out of the Spending Race. Amid the chip sell-off, Apple quietly made history: its market capitalization briefly surpassed $5 trillion on Tuesday, making it the second company after Nvidia to breach that threshold. The stock reached intraday highs of $342.89, driving valuation to $5.036 trillion, before settling at $4.98 trillion at the close. The logic behind this milestone speaks directly to the dominant market debate of the moment: Apple chose not to participate in the AI spending war that is eroding cash flows and adding heavy debt loads to its peers. Instead, it avoided the steep costs of massive data center investments by leveraging Google’s technology for updated services like Siri, maintaining its focus strictly on user experience. The result: the stock is up 25% year-to-date, outperforming other Magnificent Seven members including Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Additionally, the company launched a device leasing program in the US on Tuesday via Klarna, with monthly payments starting at $17.99 for iPhones. While the program does not reduce the overall price of the device, it alters consumer cost perception by replacing an upfront price shock with a predictable monthly obligation. Apple reports its Q3 results on Thursday evening, with analysts expecting year-over-year quarterly revenue growth above 15%. Apple’s positioning represents one side of the “spending vs. profitability” debate dominating this week’s earnings marathon; in a environment where non-spenders are rewarded, the upcoming results from the other four tech giants will be evaluated through this exact lens.

Macro Framework

Dollar Pauses Ahead of Fed, Yen on Intervention Watch The dollar paused its rally on Wednesday while remaining near a one-month high; the index slipped 0.15% to 101.27 after hitting 101.63 on Tuesday for the first time since June 25. Investors largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Fed decision. The euro recovered slightly from a one-month low to $1.1401, while sterling rose to $1.3298, though both remained near their weakest levels since July 1. The Australian dollar dropped 0.28% to $0.6954 after Q2 core inflation came in below expectations, reducing the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the central bank. The yen strengthened 0.3% to 163.38, yet remains near four-decade lows with intervention watch in full effect. Hirofumi Suzuki of SMBC highlights the two-sided risk: the Fed decision and Warsh’s press conference could boost the dollar further and push USD/JPY toward 164; however, with Japanese officials escalating warnings, the probability of intervention appears significant, and timing-wise, a further depreciation following Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting could act as the trigger.

Gold Awaits the Fed, Oil Inventories Decline Precious metals are in a cautious holding pattern ahead of the Fed decision. Gold is trading flat around $4,075, awaiting direction from today’s decision and Thursday’s core PCE data. Silver slipped to $58.50, and palladium fell to $1,250. The response across metals will depend largely on Warsh’s tone: a hawkish stance will apply upward pressure on yields and weigh on non-yielding assets, whereas a dovish signal would offer room to rally. Among industrial metals, copper recovered to $6.32, while on the energy front, the breakdown of the ceasefire and a 3.3-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories pushed oil prices higher. In grains, wheat remains near $685; although renewed escalation in conflict revived supply concerns, a technical correction continues, with the RSI pulling back to 60. Energy equities recovered a portion of yesterday’s losses alongside the rebound in oil, with Friday’s earnings reports from Exxon and Chevron remaining key highlights for the week.

Crypto

Bitcoin at $63,800: Awaits the Fed Trapped in the $63,000–$64,000 Range Bitcoin continued its decoupling, rising 1% to $63,800 despite the chip panic in Asia. Technically, price action remains compressed between $63,000 and $64,000; an attempt to breakdown below $63,000 on Tuesday failed. That drop was driven by fading legislative hopes around the Clarity Act combined with general tech stock selling, and even news of Iran firing a ballistic missile at a US base after a five-day pause failed to break prices downward. Open interest data highlights a clear threshold: bitcoin bulls will gain strong buying motivation only if $64,000 is reclaimed. Notably, a strong bias toward long leverage persists, raising upside risks heading into the Fed meeting. The underlying logic: as more leveraged traders attempt to short bitcoin, the likelihood of a squeeze toward $65,000 grows, given the accumulation of high-leverage short liquidation blocks above $64,000.

The impact of potential Fed scenarios on bitcoin is mapped out as follows: if a surprise 25-basis-point hike occurs, a move toward the $60,700 region is the most probable outcome according to daily Keltner bands; if Warsh delivers a disciplined, minimal statement without providing a concrete rate path timeline (the highest-probability scenario), a gradual rise toward $65,000 is likely. From a bearish perspective, a return to $65,000 does not invalidate the thesis; real trouble for bears only begins if the monthly high is breached, as that opens the door toward $70,000.

Altcoins showed modest positive movement: Ether rose 1% to $1,899, XRP gained 2% to $1.07, BNB increased to $567, and Solana held at $73; HYPE fell 3% to $54, making it the only major asset in the red. Analysts’ medium-term outlooks remain divided. Additionally, Friday’s $13–14 billion options expiration is expected to amplify volatility. Ultimately, the primary driver for crypto will not be its own regulatory agenda, but rather the Fed’s messaging and the overall risk appetite dictated by Meta and Microsoft earnings.

Equity Front

Fifth Consecutive Down Day, Dual Catalysts Today: The Fed and Meta-Microsoft Wall Street closed lower for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, marking the longest losing streak of the year for the tech-heavy index. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%, Nvidia dropped sharply at the open before ending flat, Intel lost 6%, and AMD dropped 8%. In the memory sector, Micron and Seagate both dropped more than 8%, while Sandisk plunged 14%. Nasdaq futures are down another 1% this morning, extending the five-day losing streak. However, notable divergences remain within the broader tape: Apple touched $5 trillion, while Chinese internet stocks resisted regional weakness in Hong Kong, with Tencent up 4% and Meituan rising 2.5%.

Two key catalysts converge today. First comes the Fed decision, followed after the close by earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Qualcomm. Meta and Microsoft represent the core of hyperscale cloud capital expenditure; how these two address the “spending vs. profitability” debate initiated by Alphabet and Tesla’s negative cash flow reports last week will determine whether recent market damage can be repaired. As evidenced by the crash in Korea, the market enters these releases in an extremely fragile state; as seen with SK Hynix, even record profits are being heavily penalized if they fall short of elevated expectations. Market direction tonight hinges on these post-close earnings and Warsh’s commentary, making this the busiest and potentially most volatile session of mid-summer.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Data Release
July 29	Wednesday (Today)	Fed rate decision (pause expected; 30% chance of hike, dissenting votes likely); US Q2 GDP growth; ADP employment; EIA oil inventories reports. Earnings: Meta, Microsoft, and Qualcomm (after market close); Airbus, Hermes, L’Oreal, UBS, Danone.
July 30	Thursday	US core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation metric); Bank of England rate decision; Amazon and Apple earnings (after market close); Samsung results.
July 31	Friday	Bank of Japan rate decision (pause expected with inflation warning); US July payrolls report; Exxon and Chevron earnings.
July 31	Friday	Approximately $13–14 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options expiration.
August 8	Saturday	US Senate enters summer recess; Clarity Act vote unlikely as it has been deferred to the Russia bill.