Global Markets Report: Oil Pulls Back, Central Banks Diverge, and Crypto Holds Steady

Friday, September 18, 2026 | Daily briefing on energy supply shifts, central bank rate decisions, corporate crypto holdings, and Ethereum upgrade risks.

Daily Summary

Our View: The pullback in oil is this week’s most crucial shift; the partial commissioning of the Saudi pipeline and China’s diplomatic pressure on Iran are easing inflation concerns, allowing bonds and equities to rally together. In this environment, we expect the recovery in risky assets to continue through the day, the dollar to remain flat around 100, gold to hold above 4,400, and bitcoin to test the upside in the 77K-80K band. On the yen side, the BOJ’s rate hike came in below expectations with two dissenting votes; if Ueda fails to sound sufficiently hawkish in his 09:30 press conference, a push toward the 160 level comes into play. Oil dipping below 100 dollars is the threshold that will alter the narrative for the entire week.

• The BOJ raised rates to 1.25%, but with two dissenting votes. This marks a 31-year high and the second hike in three months; yet, the 7-2 vote and measured statement disappointed the market. The yen weakened by 0.8% to 157.15 (its weakest since September 3), while the Nikkei rose 1.7%.
• Oil fell for a third day. Brent stands at 103.5 and WTI at 100.8; Saudi Arabia is working to restore about half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days. Brent is heading toward its first weekly loss in three weeks.
• China asked Iran to rein in the Houthis. Coming after Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Beijing, this request was reportedly delivered privately according to three Iranian sources, serving as the main news to ease market sentiment.
• Stocks and bonds rallied together. The S&P 500 posted its strongest day in six weeks, up 1.14%; the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.73%, and the chip index gained 3%. The VIX dropped 12.8% to 15.4. The 10-year yield broke an eight-day winning streak, sitting at 4.95%.
• The BoE kept rates on hold and paused quantitative tightening (QT) for six months. The latter was the surprise move. The bank warned it might be forced to hike rates if the war prolongs; the British pound traded at 1.3362.
• The probability of an October Fed hike stands at 53%. A week ago, it was 27%. Goldman and Morgan Stanley have both made October calls, while Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock stated that upside inflation risks are materializing.
• Bitcoin is at 77,500, with Zcash as the star of the week. ZEC surged 10% to 1,488 dollars, and its sole US fund raised over 230 million dollars in a month. Bitcoin ETFs saw 159 million dollars in inflows, while ether funds experienced outflows for a third straight day.
• Today: Ueda press conference at 09:30; UK retail sales; US industrial production; speeches by Fed’s Bowman and Schmid. Next week features the Trump-Xi summit.

Story of the Day: The BOJ Cannot Accelerate

On Friday, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high. The rationale is clear: the risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target driven by import costs and energy prices. This move marks the second hike in three months, breaking the pattern of hiking twice a year, and comes weeks after Bessent called for faster tightening to support the new Tokyo administration. Despite this, the market reaction was negative because details fell short of expectations: the decision passed on a 7-2 vote with two board members favoring no change, and the tone of the statement remained measured compared to other central banks.

Ray Attrill from National Australia Bank offered a harsh assessment: they clearly fell short of expectations, and the most surprising part is that they couldn’t even secure a unanimous vote, which raises eyebrows in the market. Fred Neumann from HSBC points in the same direction: the tone of the statement and the two dissenting votes fuel doubts that the Bank of Japan will act cautiously in tightening policy further. While consecutive hikes look unlikely, investors will search for clues on whether officials are ready to hike again in December.

The outcome was directly visible in the yen. The Japanese currency weakened 0.8% against the dollar to 157.145, its softest level since September 3, and dropped 0.8% against the euro to 180.32. Earlier this month, the yen had rallied sharply on expectations of a faster BOJ hike pace and early signs that Japanese investors were starting to repatriate capital; however, the Fed’s hawkish pivot and today’s measured decision erased a portion of those gains. Reuters’ framing captures the essence of the matter: the BOJ is tightening policy so slowly that the rest of the world has caught up and surpassed it.

Nearly three more rate hikes are priced into the US by the middle of next year, with similar expectations for Europe and the UK, whereas only two hikes are priced for Japan. Australia is also pricing in two hikes, and its rates are already the highest in the G10. Prashant Newnaha from TD Securities noted that while the BOJ reiterated concerns that core inflation could overshoot the target, they saw no concrete evidence supporting a back-to-back hike in October; the bank’s baseline remains roughly one hike every quarter, with the next move slated for December.

This makes Ueda’s 09:30 press conference critical: Chris Weston from Pepperstone states the market will look for confirmation that normalization remains on the table and evaluate whether the bank sees any urgency to act again. If Ueda fails to sound sufficiently hawkish, the risk of a return toward the 160 levels for the yen looms large.

The carry trade debate is also back in the spotlight. During Japan’s decade-plus era of near-zero rates, traders borrowed in yen to fund higher-yielding investments; fears that the unwinding of this trade could drag down all markets have persisted for a long time, with the stock and bitcoin crash of August 2024 considered a small preview. However, today’s landscape makes this fear look exaggerated: even after a 25 basis point hike, Japanese rates remain far below US rates, and the wide yield differential continues to keep yen-funded carry trades attractive.

Oil Pulls Back, the Narrative Shifts

The true structural break this week is in energy. Oil fell for a third consecutive session on Friday: Brent traded at 103.5-104 and WTI at 100.8-101.2 dollars, following roughly 1% declines for both on Thursday, with Brent heading toward its first weekly loss in three weeks. The driver is concrete steps on the supply side. Saudi Arabia is working to restore about half of the capacity of the East-West pipeline—attacked last week—within days, and is offering additional crude to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Port of Sohar.

According to Priyanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova, Saudi efforts to bring back export capacity have alleviated some immediate supply anxiety; the core question remains whether physical flows can normalize and on what timeline. If a permanent improvement in Strait of Hormuz traffic is seen, a further portion of the geopolitical risk premium could unwind.

The second and less expected news is diplomatic: according to Reuters citing three Iranian sources, China privately asked Tehran to help rein in the Houthis following Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Beijing. This became the main development easing investor sentiment.

The picture is still not one-sided. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continued cross-border skirmishes on Thursday, and Yemenis took to boats on the Red Sea to escape the conflict. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that a Togo-flagged oil tanker was hit while attempting an “illegal passage” through Hormuz. Ship transits through Hormuz remain in the single digits. No peace talks have taken place since the collapse weeks ago of the temporary agreement reached between the US and Iran in June; the war will be addressed next week at the United Nations General Assembly, where an Iranian delegation may attend. Oil remains above 100 dollars, up roughly 15% this month, as the market awaits concrete proof of supply normalization.

The implications of this pullback for markets go beyond the price itself. Cheaper oil takes the top off the inflation problem the Fed has been trying to solve by hiking rates; hence, bonds were able to rally alongside stocks on Thursday rather than moving inversely. Crypto also traded on the same signal all week, with majors moving alongside the equity picture rather than ahead of it. Therefore, the sole true directional driver in the markets this week has been the direction of oil; Fed, BoE, and BOJ decisions remained secondary around this axis.

Central Bank Choir Completed

With the BOJ decision, the series of major central bank meetings has concluded, sharing a common hawkish tone.

• The Fed hiked rates for the first time in three years on Wednesday and signaled more to come in the coming months.
• The ECB hiked last week and warned of the need for additional tightening.
• The BoE kept rates on hold on Thursday but warned it may be forced to hike if the Middle East war prolongs, alongside a surprise move to halt government bond sales for six months.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock joined the choir on Friday: some of the upside inflation risks policymakers pointed to are materializing, and the key question at this month’s meeting will be whether this year’s three hikes are enough to return inflation to the 2-3% target.

On the Fed front, the probability of an October hike rose to 53% (up from 27.2% a week ago). Investors note growing trust in Warsh’s efforts to re-establish the central bank’s independence from the White House. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are forecasting an October hike.

Market Tour

Equities

Wall Street turned Thursday’s post-Fed relief into a full rally: the S&P 500 rose 1.14% to 7,638 for its strongest day in six weeks; the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.73% to 29,447; the Dow added 0.61% to 51,778; and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.55%. The VIX dropped 12.8% to 15.44, entering a bear trend. Leadership is in semiconductors: the chip index rose 3%, AMD surged 6.36% to 545 dollars (securing an 8.2% weekly gain and nearing its 52-week high by 6%), TSMC added 3% to 430, and Nvidia rebounded 2.54% to 219 dollars to return to an upward trend. Tesla rose 2.27% to 366, Amazon gained 2.13%, and Apple added 1.38% to 337 dollars, sitting 2% below its 52-week high.

Energy was the only flat sector: XOM and CVX were unchanged, as the drop in oil wiped out weekly gains for both stocks. The S&P 500 has returned to an upward trend, making the 20-day peak of 7,817 reachable again; the Nasdaq 100 is up 1.2% for the week.

Asia carried this sentiment into Friday: MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rose 1%, the KOSPI jumped 2.77% to 6,902, the Taiex climbed 1.93% to 47,181 (leaving it 2% shy of its peak), the Nikkei rose 1.65% to 65,195 on yen weakness, the Hang Seng gained 0.91%, and the Shanghai Composite added 0.95%. European futures point to a lower open, down 0.35%. BIST 100 rose 2.95% to 13,510, recovering a portion of yesterday’s 5.5% crash, though its weekly loss remains at 6.1% and the index trades below its 200-day moving average.

Foreign Exchange

The dollar index traded flat in the 100.19-100.29 range, maintaining its uptrend and a 1.2% weekly gain. The day’s major move was in the yen: USD/JPY rose 0.75% to 157.18—its weakest level since September 3 following the aforementioned BOJ disappointment—with the RSI at 45, fully exiting oversold territory. August core inflation in Japan stabilizing near the 2% target did little to help the yen.

Yen crosses rebounded: EUR/JPY gained 0.83% to 180.46, CHF/JPY added 0.9% to 190.76, and GBP/JPY rose 0.59% to 210.02; in all three, the RSI sits between 29-34, indicating they remain technically stretched and that this rebound looks more like a correction than a trend reversal.

The euro traded flat at 1.1484-1.1491 but is heading for a 1% weekly loss, its sharpest weekly drop since June; its RSI is near oversold at 33 within a downtrend. Sterling held at 1.3362-1.3374, slightly higher following the BoE’s hold and QT pause. The Australian dollar rose 0.3-0.5% to 0.7126-0.7133 on Bullock’s hawkish warning, while the New Zealand dollar traded at 0.5727-0.5739 with an RSI of 28. USD/CHF sits in overbought territory at 0.8241 with an RSI of 70; the franc saw no safe-haven demand this month.

Emerging market currencies rebounded: the rand gained 0.85% and the peso rose 0.57%. USD/TRY hit a new high at 48.76 with an RSI of 90. In correlation tables, the 60-day correlation between the S&P and USD/JPY has shifted from negative to +0.31 over the last 20 days; stocks and the yen are now moving in the same direction, showing that carry unwinding is not the primary factor driving the market for now.

Commodities

Oil trades with the aforementioned supply improvements at Brent 103.5 and WTI 100.8 dollars; Brent is down 3.8% and WTI is 1.6% lower for the week, though monthly gains stand at 14% and 19%. Their RSIs have exited overbought levels at 64-67.

Precious metals benefited from softening oil and declining yields: gold rose 0.34% to 4,415 dollars, closing the week flat, while silver surged 2.49% to 67.10 dollars for a 4.4% weekly gain; palladium added 2.7% to 1,325, and platinum rose 0.8% to 1,806 dollars. Copper climbed 0.87% to 6.64 dollars in an uptrend, up 2.7% for the week. Natural gas dropped 1.28% to 2.86 dollars, entering a bear trend.

In agriculture, wheat held flat for the week at 722.5 but is up 8.7% for the month in an uptrend; cocoa fell 2.63% to 5,620, erasing nearly the entirety of the August rally with a 5.7% weekly loss. Coffee’s 4.75% drop continues to carry contract roll effects; its RSI is oversold at 29, though readings are not interpreted until the series normalizes.

Crypto

Bitcoin sits at 77,500 dollars, rebounding from an overnight low of 76,200 and pushing past 77,400 following the BOJ decision; it is up 1.2% on the week and 20% on the month. All majors are in the green: Solana surged 5.89% to 105.5 dollars for a 6.9% weekly gain, ENA jumped 7.4% to 0.162 dollars bringing its monthly gain to 96%, AVAX added 4.68% to 7.87, dogecoin rose 4%, ether gained 1.6% to 2,480, and XRP rose 1.6% to 1.317 dollars.

Zcash remains the weekly leader: up 10% to 1,488 dollars, followed by Hyperliquid’s HYPE, which gained 10% to over 86 dollars.

A divergence in ETF flows is noteworthy: US spot bitcoin funds pulled in 159 million dollars on Thursday, whereas ether funds saw 39 million dollars in outflows, marking their third consecutive day of redemptions (224M on Wednesday, 141M on Tuesday); XRP funds lost 5 million dollars. Meanwhile, the sole US Zcash fund experienced its strongest day of the month with 47 million dollars in inflows, pushing its monthly haul past 230 million dollars. In other words, on a day when the top two crypto funds lost capital, the Zcash fund attracted money; whether this trend persists next week is a flow metric to watch. Over a 30-day window, ether funds remain up 1.5 billion dollars and bitcoin funds up 2.5 billion dollars.

On the demand side, the picture is more cautious. According to Glassnode data, public companies added only 5,900 bitcoins over the past three months—representing roughly 451 million dollars at spot prices, with the bulk of buying driven by Strategy’s purchase of 4,603 BTC in late August. In the same period a year ago, corporate treasuries bought over 100,000 bitcoins, with July 2025 alone seeing 89,000 additions when bitcoin traded above 100K and single-month purchases exceeded 8.9 billion dollars.

Glassnode’s commentary is clear: corporate treasuries were aggressive buyers throughout 2025 and have since pulled back; their average entry cost stands at 80,500 dollars, roughly 6% above spot, meaning the group as a whole is sitting on unrealized losses. Reclaiming this level would push treasuries back into profitability and remove a layer of supply pressure; until then, entry costs act as a ceiling.

Across the board, 181 public companies hold approximately 1.22 million bitcoins, with Strategy holding 845,000 alone. Other demand indicators are mixed: while US spot funds have pulled in billions since early August, they are still down roughly 1 billion dollars year-to-date. The Coinbase premium has remained negative since May—with a brief exception on September 5—meaning US buyers are showing weaker demand than offshore traders. Total stablecoin supply, considered an indicator of new fiat capital entering the market, remained virtually flat in the 300-310 billion dollar band this year, staying static even during the mid-August bitcoin rally.

Second Story: Ethereum Enters the Glamsterdam Test Facing a “Bogus Builder” Risk

Ethereum developers confirmed a public testnet date of October 6 for the network’s next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, but outlined an attack vector during the same meeting that could derail the test. Glamsterdam aims to pack more transactions into each block and increase the block gas limit to roughly 200 million alongside changes to gas pricing. The upgrade brings the relationship between validators and specialized block builders directly into the protocol: builders prepare and compete to offer transaction blocks, and once a validator accepts the winning bid, the builder is expected to reveal the transactions.

The issue arises because the test will take place on Sepolia, a permissionless testnet. As consensus developer Potuz stated, it is possible to spin up a thousand builders, have them submit very high bids, and then fail to produce any block content—something “any kid can do.” While mainnet funds are not at risk, if blocks remain devoid of transaction contents, the infrastructure testing required before Glamsterdam hits Ethereum cannot occur. Existing protections typically revert to local building after a few missed blocks; Potuz noted that clients must be able to recognize and reject individual builders, otherwise the attacker can simply return with a new identity.

The timeline is also tight: client teams have until September 29 to release software ready for Sepolia, leaving just seven days until the fork—half the time normally allocated for security reviews and bug bounty testing in Ethereum’s upgrade cycle. Developers accepted this compressed window because Sepolia is relatively centralized and easy to rescue if things break. Production builder software operated by Titan and Ultrasound teams has not yet completed the Glamsterdam transition; there is no date for mainnet activation, and the next public test is scheduled on Hoodi for October 27.

Levels to Watch

• Ueda Press Conference (09:30): The market is looking for confirmation that normalization remains on the table. If he fails to sound hawkish enough, the yen heads toward 160; if he leaves the door open for a December hike, a return below 155 is possible.
• Brent Crude ($100): The psychological threshold of the week. Dropping below it alters the inflation narrative and accelerates the recovery in both bonds and equities; pipeline repair delays work in the opposite direction.
• US 10-Year Yield (5.00% / 4.90%): The eight-day winning streak was broken. Falling below 4.90% alongside softening oil provides the strongest support for the continuation of the equity rally.
• Bitcoin ($80,500): Glassnode’s calculated corporate treasury entry cost. Reclaiming it puts treasuries back in profit and removes a supply ceiling; while below it, this level acts as resistance.
• USD/JPY (157.15 / 160): The post-BOJ low and the targeted zone if Ueda fails to sound hawkish enough. The RSI across yen crosses still sits at 29-34, meaning the rebound has room technically.
• S&P 500 (7,817): The 20-day peak and record zone. If oil drops below 100 and yields soften, this could be tested this week.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Development
September 18	Friday	BOJ Governor Ueda press conference at 09:30; UK retail sales; US industrial production; speeches by Fed’s Bowman and Schmid
Next Week	—	Trump-Xi summit in Washington (agriculture, energy, sanctions, and rare earths on the agenda); Middle East war to be addressed at the UN General Assembly, with an Iranian delegation potentially attending
October 6	Tuesday	Ethereum Glamsterdam public testnet (Sepolia); client software release deadline on September 29
October	—	FOMC meeting (53% hike probability; Goldman and Morgan Stanley with October calls); Senate breaks for election campaigning
November 3	—	US midterm elections