Global Markets on Edge: Strait of Hormuz Escalation, Hawkish FOMC Fears, and Crypto Whale Rotations

Wednesday, July 8, 2026 | Daily briefing on Warsh’s first FOMC minutes, surging oil risks, the SpaceX post-IPO drop, and Bitcoin’s thin support.

Daily Summary

• Ceasefire on the verge of collapse: The US launched a “series of powerful strikes” against Iran in response to attacks on three commercial vessels (including Qatari and Saudi tankers) in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced it targeted “85 US military facilities.” The US Treasury has revoked Iran’s oil waiver.
• Oil surges over two days: Brent crude rose to $76.25 (+2.8%), and WTI hit $72.47 (+2.9%). The 10-year Treasury yield reached a one-month high of 4.565% as fears of inflation and a hawkish Fed returned.
• BTC drops to $62,816: Under pressure from oil and the dollar after forming a double top at $64,000. Santiment data shows whale wallets aggressively rotating into stablecoins, signaling downside expectations. The $62,700 support is thin, risking a test of $60,000 below.
• FOMC June minutes today at 14:00 ET (21:00 TSI): The first meeting document of the Warsh era. Vital Knowledge: “Given how guarded Warsh was during the press conference, the minutes could hold surprises—the tone will likely be hawkish.” The market is pricing in at least one more rate hike by year-end.
• KOSPI deepens its rout, down -5.5% (weekly -13%), triggering a temporary trading halt. SK Hynix’s $28 billion US listing on Friday will be a fresh test of sector sentiment. Conversely, the Hang Seng gained +2.4% as calls for a rotation into China gather steam.

Main Agenda

Ceasefire? What Ceasefire?

Reuters’ headline sums up the day. On Tuesday, three commercial vessels—an LNG tanker, a supertanker, and a third ship, including Qatari and Saudi tankers—were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC). US Central Command responded, calling Iran’s aggression “unprovoked, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire,” and launched a “series of powerful strikes.” Iran announced it targeted “85 US military facilities” in retaliation for strikes on the Hormozgan and Mahshahr regions. JMIC raised the transit threat level for the strait to “severe” and warned that further Iranian attacks are highly likely.

The Treasury Department revoked the waiver allowing Iran’s global oil sales, with an anonymous US official stating, “Iran will only benefit if it demonstrates good behavior.” Jackson from Ortus Advisors noted, “As the November midterm elections approach, it is not in Iran’s interest to agree to a deal while its leverage over Trump increases,” suggesting the escalation could be a negotiation tactic. DBS shares a similar framework: for now, the market is sticking to the scenario that “both sides are playing a leverage game within a temporary ceasefire,” but the real risk lies in the mid-August expiration of the ceasefire and the red line surrounding Hormuz transit fees.

Oil and Bond Yields Surge, the Ghost of Inflation Returns

Brent crude rose to $76.25 (+2.82%) and WTI to $72.47 (+2.88%), with the two-day cumulative surge exceeding 5%. The US revocation of Iran’s oil waiver is magnifying supply anxieties. In an environment where strait transits have dropped to single digits (ANZ), tanker operators will grow increasingly cautious.

The market impact is a chain reaction: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to a one-month high of 4.565%. The spike in oil and yields could force the Fed into a more hawkish stance due to persistent inflation. Remembering the war outbreak in February, when oil spiked above $100 and triggered a global inflation shock, a partial rerun of that scenario would re-strengthen rate hike pricing. The relief provided by the weak Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) evaporated in a single week.

FOMC Minutes Today, Warsh’s Black Box Opens

The minutes of the June meeting will be released today at 14:00 ET (21:00 TSI). The minutes will serve as a wildcard because Warsh was extremely guarded during the last press conference. Powell typically provided a comprehensive breakdown of the meeting discussions; this did not happen under Warsh, meaning hawkish-toned minutes could bring surprises.

Reminder: Rates were held steady at 3.50%-3.75% at that meeting, but the dot plot showed nine members projecting a rate hike later this year. The market is currently pricing in at least one more hike by year-end. A critical shift in context: those projections were made when oil was falling; now, oil is rising again. The combination of the minutes and the Hormuz escalation could push the probability of a September hike back up.

SpaceX: Abundant Bulls, Falling Stock

The 25-day quiet period expired, bringing a flood of analyst notes on the largest IPO in history: Goldman Sachs (target $205), Morgan Stanley ($300), JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Wells Fargo—almost all major institutions initiated coverage with a Buy rating. Leading the pack was Raymond James with a Strong Buy and an $800 target, stating it “could be one of the defining infrastructure platforms of the century.” The lone contrarian voice was CFRA with a Sell rating and a $115 target.

Starship remains the primary growth driver, with JPM forecasting ~5,000 launches per year by 2031. Deutsche Bank’s “haloscaler” thesis is notable: it suggests SpaceX could become the lowest-cost compute provider by building AI infrastructure on the ground and eventually in orbit, competing with OpenAI and Anthropic via Grok. JPM calculates that an index inclusion could attract $4.3 billion in passive inflows ($587 billion indexed to the Nasdaq-100).

However, the reality is that the stock dropped -5.4% yesterday to $150.93, sitting just above its IPO price ($135) and down -28% from its peak. Hackett from Nationwide noted, “There is anxiety that expectations are too high, which will persist until earnings come through.” Note: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. There is no fast track to S&P 500 inclusion; it will have to wait at least a year.

Trump’s Greenland Comments and Ukraine’s Siberia Strike

In the midst of the NATO summit, Trump reiterated that Greenland “should be controlled by the US” and added that if NATO resists, the US could withdraw all military personnel from Europe—a move creating intra-alliance tension over the territory of Denmark (a NATO member). Around the same time, Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in western Siberia using drones, marking one of Kyiv’s deepest strikes inside Russian territory since the war began. Given that Russia recently pushed crude exports to record highs due to refinery damage, these strikes are part of a systematic campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure.

Non-market but notable: The World Cup quarterfinal matchups are set (six of the final eight are from Europe); Netflix, Disney, and YouTube are reportedly preparing to challenge Fox for the 2030-2034 US broadcast rights, with Amazon and Apple also entering the potential bidding war.

Macro Framework

RBNZ Hikes: A New Link in the Global Tightening Chain

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first hike since mid-2023, sending a clear message: “A modest further reduction in monetary stimulus will likely be required to rein in inflation.” The Kiwi jumped +0.5% to $0.5705. This marks the first confirmation of the Asia-Pacific tightening wave predicted by HSBC, with South Korea and Indonesia next in line. The resurgence of oil is fueling this cycle; the window where central banks breathed a sigh of relief as “oil dropped” closed in a week.

Dollar at Weekly High, Yen at 162.46 — Dovish Voice from Within the BOJ

The Dollar Index rose to 101.21, its highest level since July 2, driven by classic safe-haven demand amid geopolitical escalation. USD/JPY climbed for a fourth consecutive day to reach 162.46, sitting just 40 pips away from its 40-year low of 162.84. Fresh pressure on the Yen came from within: Toichiro Asada, the lone dissenting member against the BOJ’s June hike, told Reuters, “I need to see evidence of demand-driven inflation before supporting further hikes.” This signal of limited tightening appetite is encouraging fresh selling. EUR/USD stands at 1,1419, GBP/USD at 1.3356. Intervention watch continues, but Tokyo remains silent; the “ambush tactic” theory remains untested.

Circuit Breakers in Korea, Rally in Hong Kong — Asia Split in Two

The KOSPI fell -5.55% to 7,231; during the plunge, exchange circuit breakers were triggered, temporarily halting trade. These pauses are becoming more frequent in what was the world’s best-performing market, highlighting the scale of the volatility. Weekly losses have reached -12.91%. Defense stocks added to the bleeding: Hanwha Aerospace -%6, Hyundai Rotem -%9.2, and LIG -%10, as the loss of the Canadian submarine tender rippled across the sector.

Friday’s US listing of SK Hynix ($28 billion, one of the largest in Korean history) will be a critical test of sector confidence. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is down -18% from its June 18 peak but remains up +160% year-to-date. At the opposite pole, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose +2.38% to 24,057. Tai Hui from JPMorgan attributes the year-to-date underperformance to e-commerce/platform stocks being “squeezed” by AI integration costs; however, the China rotation narrative (called by Quantum Strategy) is gaining ground. PBOC Governor Pan pledged to support “high-quality” corporate listings and raise the bond investment quota to 800 billion yuan. Z.ai (up +1,200% since January) announced that despite the lock-up expiration, ~70% of cornerstone investors will continue to hold their shares.

Crypto

BTC $62,816: Double Top, Thin Support, Whale Signal

After forming a double top around $64,000, Bitcoin dropped to as low as $62,657 amid the US-Iran escalation. It currently trades at $62,816, down -0.16% intraday but still up +4.65% on the week. The mechanism is familiar: rising oil → inflation expectations → rate hike pricing → 2-year yield up → exit from risk assets. BTC’s inverse correlation with the 2-year yield (during periods of hike expectations) is back in play, as the 10-year yield rose to 4.565% while the dollar index held above 101.

Technical outlook: The $62,700 support is thin; if broken, the next levels are $61,242 (4-hour liquidity zone), followed by the $59,522 and $57,710 demand zones. To the upside, resistance sits at $64,004, followed by the 50 EMA at $65,578. The GAMMA environment has also shifted: positive gamma in BTC has ended, and ETH is in negative gamma, reducing market makers’ ability to cushion moves and potentially amplifying volatility.

The most notable on-chain data of the day comes from Santiment: BTC whales holding over $5 million in stablecoins suddenly and aggressively rotated into USDT, showing a sharp spike on weekly and 3-month charts. The classic reason for this behavior is downside protection to prevent yield loss ahead of an expected correction that could last weeks or months. A similar pattern is visible in ETH, indicating broader crypto positioning. This data conflicts with ARP Digital’s optimistic reading yesterday that the “downside is in its final stages.” Both scenarios remain on the table, but whale behavior favors near-term caution. Today’s options expiry ($63,000 max pain) coincides with the FOMC minutes; an unexpectedly hawkish tone could trigger sharp moves in a thinly supported market. ETH stands at $1,757 (weekly +9.18%), SOL at $78.73, and XRP at $1.095, with majors down 1-2.5% intraday. Altcoin profit-taking is deepening, led by ADA (-4.91%) and AVAX (-4.53%).

Commodity Environment

Oil: +5% in Two Days, Waiver Revocation, and Supply Questions

With Brent at $76,25 and WTI at $72,47, the Hormuz attacks and US counter-strikes pushed prices up by over 5% in two days. RSIs have moved out of oversold territory (39 and 39). The revocation of Iran’s oil waiver introduces fresh uncertainty on the supply side; however, strong countervailing forces remain: Saudi Arabia’s $11 OSP cut, the UAE’s record 3.8 million barrel output, OPEC+ increases, and record Russian exports. The real risk highlighted by DBS is forward-looking: the ceasefire expires in mid-August, and the parties appear deadlocked over Hormuz transit fees. Energy stocks reacted sharply: XOM rose +3.85% to $141.69 and CVX gained +3.52% to $174.01, marking a short-term reversal for a sector that has been under pressure for weeks.

Gold $4,137 — Fourth Day of Losses Despite Geopolitics

A striking divergence: despite the escalation in Hormuz, gold fell for the fourth consecutive day ($4,157 futures close, $4,137 spot). Why? Rising bond yields and a strong dollar are crushing safe-haven premium demand. The market is pricing the crisis through the “inflation → hawkish Fed” channel rather than the “safe haven” channel. Gold is down over 20% from its record high of $5,627 in January and is down -4.2% year-to-date. Silver stands at $60.79.

Equity Front

AI Rotation + Oil Shock: Indices Retreat

Wall Street on Tuesday: The Dow reversed from intraday record highs to close down -0.25% (52,925), the S&P 500 fell -0.45% (7,504), and the Nasdaq slid -1.77% (29,173) as a chip sell-off and rising oil weighed together. Wednesday futures are flat-to-mixed: Dow futures are down 53 points, while Nasdaq-100 futures are slightly positive. The VIX rose to 16.13 (+3.6%). Parker from Trivariate noted, “You cannot be a bull on the US equity market and a bear on technology; those concepts are irreconcilable.” His reasoning: roughly three-fifths of S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years will come from tech. Thus, an intra-sector breather is normal, but an index bull run cannot operate without tech. Earnings season will test this thesis: banks kick off next week, and the investment volumes revived by the SpaceX IPO are expected to support Wall Street banks’ Q2 results.

Corporate Picture

Energy won the day: XOM (+3.85%) and CVX (+3.52%) directly reflected the oil spike. Losers were concentrated in the chip sector: AMD dropped -6.51% ($516.11, weekly -11%), ASML fell -4.26% ($1,747, weekly -12%), and TSM lost -4.25%. NVDA showed relative resilience, gaining +0.71%. TSLA shed -4.02% to drop to $402.90, giving back half of Monday’s +6.7% surge. META rose +2.55% to $615.58, making it the strongest of the mega-caps with a weekly gain of +9.28%. AAPL is consolidating near its peak at $310.66. AMZN hit $246 as its EMA alignment turned BULL. The used-car segment is in focus today following Phil LeBeau’s report: CarMax is down -27% from its peak, Carvana is down -30%, and Group 1 is down -40%, painting a picture of a deep correction in the sector.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Development
July 8	Wednesday (Today)	FOMC June minutes at 14:00 ET — The first meeting document of the Warsh era; the main macro event of the day.
July 8	Wednesday (Today)	Levi Strauss Q2 results (after-hours); BTC options expiry (max pain at $63,000).
July 8	Wednesday (Today)	NATO Summit Day 2: Trump-Zelensky bilateral meeting, closing press conference.
July 9	Thursday	NY Fed President Williams speech; PepsiCo Q2 earnings; Existing home sales.
July 10	Friday	SK Hynix begins trading in the US ($28 billion sale); Delta Air Lines Q2 earnings.
July 13–14	Mon–Tue	Clarity Act Senate process; Q2 earnings season opens with major banks.
Next Week	—	Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.
Mid-August	—	US-Iran 60-day temporary ceasefire expires — The red line for Hormuz transit fees.