Global Market Briefing: Trump Cancels Iran Strike as Oil Plunges, Forex Intervention Shocks Markets, and Payrolls Await
Monday, August 3, 2026 | Daily briefing on oil’s steep retreat, joint yen intervention, tech spending fatigue, and Bitcoin’s key support test.
Executive Summary
Trump cancelled the planned attack on Iran, causing oil to plunge. Over the weekend, the President announced that an agreement was reached “within the framework of a deal,” incorporating a consensus on the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat; he stated that talks would take place today, though he provided no strict timeline. Brent fell 4-5% to $83.88, while WTI dropped to $79.66. Iranian officials denied the Hormuz agreement, keeping caution alive.
OPEC+ also calmed the oil market: a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in September was approved. This completes the gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts agreed upon in 2023. The war premium evaporated significantly over a single weekend.
The US and Japan confirmed their first joint currency intervention since 1998. Coordinated yen buying took place on Thursday (Tokyo may have purchased ~$59 billion worth of yen); the yen surged from its four-decade low of 164 to a three-month high of 155.20. Trump characterized this as a “sign of friendship.”
Despite this positive news, Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, currently trading around ~$62,800. Even the plunge in oil prices and the easing war tension failed to lift crypto. Two primary reasons stand out: the Senate failing to put the Clarity Act on Monday’s agenda, and the rise in Japanese bond yields (BTC has exhibited an inverse relationship with JGB yields in recent years). Saylor announced that Strategy is now tracking the 200-week moving average at $63,770; the price sits right on this line.
The event of the week is Friday’s payrolls report. Expectations are around ~88k (June was 57k), with unemployment expected to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%. The bar is high this time: a strong reading reinforces the probability of a September rate hike and weighs on risk assets, whereas a weak reading could revive rate-cut expectations and push BTC higher, as seen in early July. Three dissenting Fed members reiterated warnings on Friday that inflation would remain stuck above 2% without an emergency hike.
Wall Street closed near record highs on Friday, and futures are in the green. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,489, and the Nasdaq gained 1% to 25,373; this morning, S&P futures are up 0.6% and Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. However, Asia is weak: KOSPI fell ~5% today following a record 17.9% surge on Friday, while the Nikkei slipped 1%. With major tech earnings now behind us, there appears to be no immediate catalyst to drive the market higher, leaving more risks ahead for August and the second half of the year.
Main Agenda
Trump Cancels Attack: Oil Crashes, But Iran Denies the Deal
A day after the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Trump ordered the military to prepare for a new attack that could begin over the weekend, the President announced on Sunday that he was cancelling the planned strike. Following requests from Tehran and regional countries to halt attacks, he stated that an understanding was reached “within the framework of a deal.” According to Trump, the agreement entails the “immediate, complete, and full opening” of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat; Israel also joined this commitment. The President noted that talks would be held today but gave no strict timeframe, adding that the agreement depends on “being able to make a deal rapidly.”
Trump’s comments to reporters reveal the magnitude of the tension: the cancelled strike would have been the “largest attack since World War II.” Oil responded instantly: Brent plummeted 4-5% to the $83-84 range, and WTI dropped to $79.66. The risk premium accumulated over months of war dissolved over a single weekend. However, a fissure warrants caution: Iranian officials denied the claim that a Hormuz deal was struck. Given that both sides have repeatedly signaled ceasefires only to break them, the market is keeping its optimism measured. Nevertheless, the pivot from war to diplomacy remains the largest source of relief across the oil-inflation-rates chain.
OPEC+ Opens the Taps in September: 188,000 Barrels Per Day
The second development calming oil markets came from the supply side. OPEC+ approved a production increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September. Agreed upon by core members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, this step completes the phased unwinding of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts implemented in 2023. The timing is striking: the group is expanding supply precisely as signals of war de-escalation emerge and prices are already falling.
Together, these two developments led to a rapid erosion of the war premium that had pushed prices up 20% throughout July. Yet, a few nuances are necessary to complete the picture. First, the supply increase is modest—188,000 barrels is a minor figure relative to war-induced disruptions. Second: even if Hormuz opens completely, the market may continue to carry a persistent premium due to stop-and-go negotiations. The current price action reflects relief over the removal of the worst-case scenario (a full blockade, expanded war) rather than a permanent solution—it is the pricing-in of a potential resolution. Today’s Trump-Iran talks will reveal how concrete that potential is. If talks progress, Brent could settle into the $75-80 range; if they collapse, it could quickly reverse upward. The drop in oil also echoed in the bond market: the 30-year US yield fell by 3.7 basis points, pulling back from the 19-year peak seen last week.
US-Japan Joint Intervention: First Since 1998
Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced on Monday that it conducted coordinated yen purchases with the US Treasury on Thursday—marking the first joint action between the two allies in nearly three decades. The impact was potent: the yen surged from its four-decade trough of 164 to a three-month peak of 155.20. Bank of Japan data suggests Tokyo may have bought up to $59 billion worth of yen on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Bessent also noted that they might consider expanding the size of the Fed’s repo facility that provides temporary dollar liquidity in the coming months, calling the tool an “important safety net.”
The term “joint intervention” carries immense weight in these markets and is rarely invoked; betting that the yen has hit its floor for the year now looks like a safe proposition. Since 1998, all three coordinated US FX interventions have succeeded, indicating that investors should ride alongside official flows rather than oppose them. The fact that speculators had accumulated a near two-year high of $12.5 billion in net short yen positions means short-covering is accelerating the yen’s rally. While intervention may define the next few months, BOJ normalization and hedging flows will determine the coming years; the next major move in the yen may ultimately be upward, not downward.
Payrolls Week: Friday’s Data Critical on Both Fronts
Market focus this week centers on Friday’s July payrolls report and the data trajectory leading up to it. Consensus calls for job growth of around ~88,000—nearly double the weak reading of 57,000 recorded in June. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. This report carries unusual weight as it arrives amidst two tense developments.
First, the Fed: the bank, which held rates steady last week, was divided. Three members voted in favor of a hike and reiterated warnings on Friday that inflation would stay trapped above the 2% target without an emergency rate increase; new Chair Warsh described inflation as a “manageable choice,” implying no rush to cut.
Second, the stock market: last week saw AI chip stocks collapse, with Nvidia losing roughly $280 billion in a single day—a record loss for a US company. In this environment, Friday’s data is vital: if it comes in overly strong, rate-cut hopes will fade; if it comes in too weak, investors will worry the economy is cracking just as the AI theme tires. A middle-ground figure is ideal.
For crypto, the dynamic is clearly two-sided: on July 2, when the June data came in weak, Bitcoin jumped 4% to $62,000; a weak reading this time could once again reignite rate-cut bets and push BTC higher, while strong data and elevated wage growth could harden the case for a rate hike and exert downward pressure. Within the report, wage growth will be the metric the Fed watches most closely, as persistent wage increases keep inflation elevated. Friday’s release, alongside the August 12 CPI data, forms one of the two main pillars for the September decision.
Macro Framework
Dollar Under Pressure, Warsh Effect and Yen Momentum Continue
The dollar remains under pressure from a combination of the yen intervention, falling oil prices, and Warsh’s hesitant stance. The Dollar Index sits around 99.70, having dropped more than 1.5% last week. The euro climbed to $1.1559—a one-and-a-half-month high—as dollar weakness stemmed from yen buying; sterling holds near a two-week high at $1.3470.
The yen rallied as much as 1% on Monday to touch 155.20 before paring some gains to trade at 156.46. Goldman Sachs highlighted the structural solution: unless the policy mix or global growth outlook changes, the most potent way to influence the exchange rate over the long run is to incentivize the repatriation of Japanese capital.
Gold Recovers with Oil Drop, Copper Holds Strong
Precious metals kicked off the week on a high note. Gold rose 0.7% to $4,068; as falling oil prices eased inflation and rate concerns, a weaker dollar made the metal more affordable for holders of other currencies. However, gains remain capped due to lingering uncertainties in oil markets and the Middle East; a renewed escalation in the region or strong labor data could limit upside potential. TD Securities’ warning that “if oil remains elevated through the summer, gold could pull back to $3,900” may work in reverse as long as oil continues to drop. Silver advanced 1.4% to $58.46, and palladium gained 1.6% to $1,293. Among industrial metals, copper showed strength, rising 1.56% to $6.54—just 1.7% shy of its 52-week high.
Crypto
Bitcoin at $62,800: Sitting at 200-Week Average Despite Positive News
Bitcoin’s price action this week reflects notable weakness: despite declining oil prices, easing war risks, and Trump’s signals of a deal, the price slipped below $63,000 to trade at $62,800. The inability of positive macro news to lift crypto perpetuates the current environment’s “dead pricing” picture.
Two primary factors account for this:
- Regulatory Delays: The Senate failed to place the Clarity Act on Monday’s agenda. With only one week remaining before the summer recess, the window for the bill’s progress is narrowing rapidly; delays in this legislation—expected to trigger institutional inflows—are creating headwinds.
- Japanese Yields: Analysts point out that Bitcoin has displayed a pronounced inverse correlation with Japanese bond yields in recent years, particularly over 2025–2026. As the 2-year JGB yield reached its highest level since 1995, this relationship continues to weigh on BTC.
In this setting, Michael Saylor’s Strategy highlighted an important technical metric: the company is now tracking Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average along with its premium/discount relative to this line. According to Saylor, Bitcoin has traded above this average 92% of the time since it became available, and today the price rests almost directly on this line at $63,770. Historically, this average has served as a exhaustion support floor during prior bear markets; acquiring Bitcoin below this moving average has historically yielded a median return of 113% over 12 months and 313% over two years.
On the technical and positioning side, indicators point to downside risks. Bitcoin’s options pivot sits at $62,452; below this level, algorithms are expected to initiate aggressive short selling. The positive gamma pocket is steadily narrowing, meaning the market-maker stabilization effect observed in recent weeks is weakening. When gamma compresses to this degree, price becomes highly sensitive to order flow, increasing the likelihood of larger directional moves if key levels break.
The analyst’s view suggests that, combined with a weakening monthly close and a high long-to-short ratio, downside risks toward $50,000 remain elevated before a sustainable floor is established. On the sentiment front, data is striking: according to Santiment, Bitcoin recorded its lowest historical ratio of positive-to-negative comments on X, Reddit, and Telegram a few days ago, triggered by the Coldcard hardware vulnerability—a critical venue for cold storage that many viewed as crypto’s ultimate line of defense. The question is whether this marks a capitulation bottom, as extreme events frequently align with major market troughs; however, on-chain metrics do not yet support a swift V-shaped recovery.
Commodity Environment
Oil Plunges 5%: War Premium Melts, OPEC+ Opens Taps
Oil started the week with sharp losses: Brent fell 4-5% to $83-84, while WTI dropped 6% to $79.66. Today’s talks between Trump and Iran represent the decisive variable in the equation. Should the negotiations yield concrete progress toward reopening Hormuz, the geopolitical premium priced in over recent months could erode rapidly, pushing Brent into the $75-80 range. Conversely, Iran’s denial of the Hormuz agreement serves as a reminder that the process remains fragile, and a single negative headline could trigger a quick price reversal.
Equities Front
Futures Push Toward Records, But Catalyst Question Remains
Wall Street closed near record highs on Friday: the Dow rose 0.53% to 52,485, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,489, and the Nasdaq climbed 1% to 25,373. Futures are trading higher this morning as war concerns ease: Dow futures are up 265 points (0.9%), S&P futures gained 0.55%, Nasdaq futures added 0.93%, and European futures are up 0.8%.
Asia, however, diverged: the KOSPI fell roughly 5% today following Friday’s record 17.9% surge (SK Hynix fell 6%, Samsung dropped 7%). This sharp volatility underlines ongoing leverage-driven swings in Korea; according to JP Morgan, the unwinding of leveraged ETFs is complete, and hedge funds have finished ~90% of their deleveraging, suggesting the worst of the forced selling may be past.
An interesting shift is visible among investors: on Friday, foreign entities purchased a record 7.2 trillion won ($5 billion) worth of Korean equities—doubling the previous daily record—as major institutional players maintain faith in chipmakers, viewing the pullback as a “leverage event, not an earnings event.”
The takeaway from big tech earnings is that investors are no longer willing to continuously underwrite massive AI capital expenditures without clear profit visibility. With major tech reporting behind us, visible catalysts to propel the broader market higher are lacking, leaving elevated risks for August and the second half of the year. Approximately 20% of the S&P 500 reports this week; Tuesday features SpaceX and AMD, along with key economic barometers like McDonald’s, Costco, and Disney.
Individual stock performance post-Friday:
- AMZN surged 15.3%, returning to a bullish alignment.
- MSFT added another 3%, extending its weekly gain to 21.7% and entering overbought territory.
- AAPL dropped 7.35% following forecasts of chip bottlenecks.
- META posted a weekly loss of 6.5%.
Friday’s employment data will set the market’s directional tone.
Weekly Calendar
| Day | Economic Calendar | Earnings / Other Events |
| Monday (Today) | US July ISM Manufacturing PMI — first major indicator of economic health; Eurozone Manufacturing PMI | Trump-Iran talks today (no fixed timeline given); OPEC+ approves 188k bpd increase for September |
| Tuesday | June JOLTS Job Openings | SpaceX & AMD earnings; McDonald’s, Costco, Disney; Toyota (fifth consecutive quarterly profit drop expected) |
| Wednesday | ADP Private Employment | SanDisk; Kraft Heinz — final labor market indicators ahead of official payrolls |
| Thursday | US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; ISM Services PMI | Palantir; ongoing earnings flow (~20% of S&P 500 reports this week) |
| Friday | US July Employment Report — consensus ~88k (June was 57k); Unemployment rate expected at 4.3% (vs. 4.2%) | A strong payrolls report raises September rate hike odds; critical binary event for BTC |
| August 12 | US July CPI — key component for September FOMC decision; two inflation and two jobs reports ahead of September meeting | August 8: Senate summer recess begins — final window for the Clarity Act |