Geopolitical Tensions Reignite: Hormuz Missile Attacks, The Samsung Paradox, and a New Era for Bitcoin

Tuesday, July 7, 2026 | Daily briefing on shifting energy supply lines, the Asian tech sell-off, FOMC minutes positioning, and Bitcoin’s base-building.

Daily Summary

• New attack in Hormuz: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels passing through the strait; an LNG carrier was hit off Oman, testing the ceasefire once again. Brent rose to $72.49. Trump: “Either we get a deal, or we finish the job.”
• Samsung announced a 19x profit surge (89.4 trillion won / $58.4 billion, more than the combined total of the last three years) but the stock tumbled -7%, dragging the KOSPI down -8%: the market is questioning the sustainability of AI demand, signaling a “the boom was announced, the sell-off arrived” sentiment.
• Strategy sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million, average ~$60,000), marking the official end of the “never sell” era; it reported an $8.31 billion unrealized loss in Q2. BTC digested the sell-off: hitting $64,400 before holding around $63,000, finishing the week +7.6%.
• Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time; SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 today, but the historical examples of Palantir and MSTR serve as reminders that index inclusion is not an automatic buy signal.
• Saudi Arabia slashed its Arab Light Asia price by $11, marking the biggest cut in over 20 years; the UAE pushed production to a record 3.8 million barrels following its OPEC exit. The supply side is turning increasingly aggressive.
• Trump is in Ankara today: A bilateral meeting with Erdogan is scheduled, followed by a summit with Zelenskyy tomorrow; European nations prepare to announce tens of billions of dollars in weapons deals. Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes remain the week’s primary macro event.

Main Agenda

Hormuz Heats Up Again, The Most Serious Test of the Ceasefire

On Monday night, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired at least two missiles at commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (according to Axios, citing two US officials); the vessels sustained significant damage but no casualties were reported. The UKMTO also confirmed that an “unknown projectile” struck an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, sparking a fire; the hit vessel is reported to be a fully loaded LNG carrier transporting Qatari gas. This marks the most severe escalation since the late-June ceasefire.

Trump’s reaction was sharp:

“Either we reach a deal with Iran, or we finish the job.”

With Tehran continuing to show defiance following the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the military option is back on the table. The initial recovery in strait transits has halted, with crossings dropping to single digits and no sustainable improvement in sight. Despite this, Japanese tankers headed out of the strait carrying Saudi oil; operators remain cautious, but traffic has not completely ground to a halt.

The Samsung Paradox: Record Profit, Sharp Sell-Off

Samsung projected its Q2 operating profit at 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion)—19 times last year’s 4.7 trillion won, beating consensus expectations and exceeding the combined profits of the last three years. This marks the third consecutive record quarter. Revenue guidance came in at 171 trillion won (up from 133.9 trillion won in the previous quarter). Yet, the stock plummeted -7%, and the KOSPI sank -8%.

Why the disconnect? The rally in AI stocks was partly fueled by capital fleeing broader economic and inflation concerns, meaning the tech sector became an inflated “safe haven”; now that profits have materialized, investors are selling the news. McCarthy from Moomoo noted: “Investors want AI exposure, but they are very nervous about valuations.”Considering the KOSPI has surged ~90% since the beginning of the year, this volatility is hardly surprising.

In parallel developments: SK Hynix launched a $28 billion US stock sale, drawing up to $7 billion in interest from major institutional investors; Broadcom extended its custom chip development partnership with Apple until 2031.

Strategy is Now a Bitcoin Seller

Strategy raised $216 million last week by selling 3,588 BTC at an average price of ~$60,000—112 times its symbolic 32 BTC sale a month ago, officially closing the “never sell” era. The rationale provided was to fund distributions for its STRC preferred stock, which pays a 12% dividend, and to replenish its dollar reserves ($2.55 billion). Its Q2 balance sheet is heavy, recording an $8.31 billion unrealized loss as BTC fell from $68,000 to $60,000.

Following the buy-sell zigzags of recent weeks, the company net-gained only +69 BTC despite spending ~$20 million in additional capital expenditures, implying an astronomical cost of over $289,000/BTC for these extra coins. The company retains its spot as the largest corporate holder with 843,775 BTC (average cost $75,476).

Market Reading: STRC is recovering (+2.1% close to $90; it was below $75 last week) because the sales are perceived as a dividend guarantee. Cash reserves now cover 17 months of dividends—where 18+ months is considered a “comfort zone,” meaning the immediate need for large additional sales may have decreased. But the net takeaway for Bitcoin remains: the iconic buyer of the bull narrative will no longer provide steady, unconditional bid support.

Dow Surpasses 53,000, SpaceX Enters the Index Today with a Historical Warning

Wall Street closed strong on Monday: the Dow rose +0.29% to close above 53,000 for the first time (53,056), the S&P 500 added +0.72%, and the Nasdaq gained +1.12%. A chip sector recovery led the way: Western Digital +7%, AMD +6.6%. Trump celebrated the launch of “Trump Accounts” (a new investment vehicle for children) by ringing the NYSE and Nasdaq opening bells directly from the Oval Office; Dell jumped +4%, boosted by Trump’s encouragement to “buy their computers.” Meanwhile, Microsoft slid following the announcement of 4,800 layoffs.

Today, SpaceX (the largest IPO in history, valued at $75 billion) officially joins the Nasdaq-100, but history urges caution: when Palantir entered the index in December 2024, it marked a local peak followed by a ~25% drop over subsequent weeks; MSTR entered the same day, having peaked a month prior, and now sits ~80% below its high. SpaceX has already retraced ~28% from its $225 peak down to $162; the stock lost another 1% yesterday. Index inclusion brings passive buying inflows, but the optimism is usually priced in well beforehand.

Saudi Price Shock and UAE’s Record Production

Two aggressive moves shook up the oil supply front: Saudi Arabia slashed its August official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light to Asia to $1.50 below the Oman/Dubai average—an $11 cut from the previous month, its largest in over 20 years. This signals a fierce defense of market share. Meanwhile, following its exit from OPEC+ quotas in May, the UAE pushed June production above 3.8 million barrels, its highest level since April 2020 and well above pre-war baselines. On Sunday, OPEC+ had approved a modest +188,000 barrel increase for August.

Waterer from KCM Trade commented:

“The supply recovery has eased the immediate risk premium, but the market doesn’t place much trust in the ceasefire due to the volatile, fluid nature of US-Iran relations. Positive supply news is largely priced in; the next move depends on whether physical reality aligns with optimistic headlines, especially regarding Chinese demand.”

NATO Summit in Ankara, Weapons Deals, and Zelenskyy Meeting

Trump arrives in Ankara this afternoon: a welcome ceremony followed by a bilateral meeting with Erdogan, and then the NATO leaders’ dinner. Wednesday features a working session, bilateral meetings with Zelenskyy and Syrian leader Shara, and a final press conference.

The summit takes place against the backdrop of Sunday’s massive Russian strike on Kyiv (leaving at least 11 dead), which occurred just a day after a 90-minute “constructive” phone call between Trump and Putin. Trump remains optimistic: “Putin feels the pressure, he wants to end the war… I think we will get it done.”

The tangible agenda: European governments are preparing to announce tens of billions of dollars in weapons deals ahead of Trump’s arrival. US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker noted: “The goal is for Europe to take over the continent’s conventional defense. We aren’t leaving, we are just doing less.”

Macro Framework

Tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes – First Document of the Warsh Era

Wednesday’s release of the June minutes will reveal the internal debates of the first meeting chaired by Warsh. Nine members had projected at least one hike this year, but those projections came before the crash in oil prices. The 10-year yield is quiet at 4.483%. Following weak non-farm payrolls, the market is firmly betting on a pause in July; September remains an open question. Is the committee as hawkish as Warsh, or are there dovish voices inside? No major earnings reports are due today.

Yen at 161.79 – GBP/JPY Hits Highest Since 2007

After trading on the weaker side of 162, the Yen recovered slightly to return to the 161.79–161.83 band. No official intervention has occurred yet, but the market remains on high alert; traders are emboldened by the regulatory silence, deepening their short positions on the Yen. A striking cross-currency movement: GBP/JPY approached 217.09, its highest level since 2007, proving that Yen weakness is widespread, not just isolated against the dollar. Today’s risk event: Japan’s 30-year bond auction. Yokoo from MUFG warned that if the auction shows soft demand, bond yields will rise, accelerating the Yen sell-off. The Dollar Index is flat at 100.89; EUR/USD is at 1.1440, GBP/USD at 1.3389.

Asia Outlook and Korea’s Brutal Day

The KOSPI suffered the region’s steepest drop, plunging -8% (closing at 7,408 in index data); its weekly loss reached -12.6%. The Nikkei slid -1.97% to 68,367. The second big story on Korea’s painful day: Hanwha Ocean cratered -23% after losing Canada’s 12-submarine tender—which could reach $100 billion over 30 years—to Germany’s TKMS. Outperforming the region was India, with the Nifty up +0.30% and the Sensex at 78,546, marking a weekly gain of +2.70%. Elsewhere, Sapporo established a Southeast Asia-focused joint venture with Carlsberg ($643 million for a 25% stake).

Crypto

BTC at $63,058 – Digests Strategy Sell-Off, $64,400 Tested

Bitcoin returned to around $63,000 after touching $64,400 overnight; flat on the day, +7.56% on the week. Critical observation: the market absorbed Strategy’s $216 million sell-off news without breaking the recovery structure; the price quickly recovered after dipping from $62,900 to $61,900 at the exact time of the announcement.

Second critical observation: the Asian tech sell-off (KOSPI -8%) failed to drag crypto down—providing a second weekly confirmation that the correlation active throughout the last quarter has officially broken. The new risk is Hormuz once again: energy-shock-driven sell-offs hit crypto in the first half of the year; the strait coming back into focus brings this macro risk right back.

A notable “bottom” argument from the derivatives front: According to Fakhro from ARP Digital, institutional buying has almost completely vanished, with CME futures open interest sitting at a 32-month low and the term structure at its tightest since early 2023. But the real standout data: the 6-month option skew (the cost of downside protection) spiked to its fourth-highest level in history. Previous parallels were June and November 2022—both near major cyclical bottoms. Fakhro’s reading:

“When downside insurance becomes this expensive, the market might be paying a premium for protection when the worst is already priced in.”

This suggests the washout may be in its late stages rather than early ones. For a sustained rally, ETF inflows need to resume. For Bitcoin, which closed the first half down -20%, this is an attempt at base-building, not a confirmed structural reversal.

Commodities Environment

Oil: Hormuz Attack Clashes with Supply Pressure

Brent is trading at $72.49 (+0.69%) and WTI at $68.99 (+0.64%). The Hormuz attack pushed prices up, but the move was measured; on Monday, prices touched pre-war baselines. The market is weighing two opposing forces: on one side, Iranian missiles and strait transits dropping to single digits; on the other, the Saudi $11 OSP cut, the UAE’s record production, and the scheduled OPEC+ increase. The RSI is firmly in oversold territory (29–30) for both benchmarks. The next price move will be determined by whether optimistic headlines turn into tangible physical blockages.

Gold at $4,138: Waiting Ahead of the Minutes

Spot gold edged down -0.42% to $4,138; silver fell -1.07% to $61,26. Weekly gains are being held (gold +2.85%, silver +2.99%), but momentum stalled ahead of the FOMC minutes. Technicals: OBV turned DOWN in gold, and the Bollinger Band position is at 45%, showing short-term indecision. Copper maintains its BULL alignment at $6.20. Cocoa stands at $5,602 (+2.16% daily, +48.91% monthly) and coffee at $363.95 (weekly +25%).

Equities Front

Mixed Futures Following Record Dow

Following a record close for the Dow at 53,056, futures are trading mixed: Dow futures +0.1%, S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq-100 -0.9%, overshadowed by the Asian chip sell-off. Bernstein from Janus Henderson commented: “We are seeing new highs across various indices, and it makes sense; earnings growth is not only strong, but abundant. It’s broadening out across the markets.”

The Dow’s technical picture continues to signal overheating: RSI is at 71 (overbought) and the BB position is at 98%. The S&P 500 stands at 7,537 (+0.72%), a mere 1.1% away from its 52-week high. The VIX remains low at 15.57—increasing the risk of market complacency. Europe: The DAX is in record territory at 25,818; European futures are slightly negative today.

Company Moves

• TSLA $419.77 (+6.69%): A strong bounce-back after Thursday’s post-delivery sell-off, moving 5.6% above its EMA200.
• AMD $552.05 (+6.61%): Leading the chip recovery, sitting 5.6% away from its 52-week high. TSM $451.79 (+4.06%).
• AAPL $312.66: Remaining 1.5% away from its peak, with additional support from the Broadcom partnership extension to 2031.
• META $600.29 (+2.98%): Reclaiming the key $600 psychological threshold.
• Vertex / Crinetics: Vertex is acquiring Crinetics for $10 billion ($85/share cash); Crinetics nearly doubled in extended trading, while Vertex fell -2%.
• Rivian -9%: Slipped following the announcement of a 75-million-share public offering.
• Walmart: Slightly negative following Trump’s social post claiming “they will cut prices drastically, close to 15% on ground beef,” marking losses in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Development
July 7	Tuesday (Today)	SpaceX officially enters the Nasdaq-100; US May foreign trade data; Japan 30-year bond auction
July 7	Tuesday (Today)	Trump arrives in Ankara: Bilateral meeting with Erdogan + NATO leaders’ dinner; BoE financial stability report
July 8	Wednesday	FOMC June minutes (Warsh’s first meeting); Trump-Zelenskyy meeting; RBNZ interest rate decision; BTC options expiry
July 9	Thursday	NY Fed President Williams speech; PepsiCo Q2 earnings; existing home sales data
July 10	Friday	Delta Air Lines Q2 results
July 13-14	Mon-Tue	Clarity Act Senate process; Q2 earnings season kicks off with major Wall Street banks
Next week	—	Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee