Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Daily briefing on Hormuz de-escalation, AI giant cash burn, soaring equities, and Bitcoin’s macro decoupling.

Executive Summary

The Strait of Hormuz deal is approaching, with oil down $24 from its June peak. According to Axios, Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to reopening the strait, with an announcement expected today; Qatar also reported progress in mediation. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $78.24, down from its peak of $102 in June. However, Iran has not yet confirmed participation in the talks, and caution remains high.

Equities are breaking record after record. The S&P 500 and Dow closed at all-time highs on Tuesday; the MSCI World Index rallied toward a new record, the Asia-Pacific index gained 2.2%, and the Australian stock market reached an all-time high. SK Hynix jumped 6.4%, and Nvidia rose 2% in extended trading. Lower oil prices and falling interest rate expectations also provided support to bonds and gold; the probability of a rate hike in September declined from 67% to 57%.

However, the ‘good, but not good enough’ penalty persists among AI giants. AMD’s sales and outlook exceeded expectations, but not by enough to justify its 142% gain this year, causing the stock to drop 9% in extended trading. SpaceX reported record revenue of $7.8 billion in its debut earnings report, but capital expenditure of $18.4 billion ($16 billion allocated to AI) sparked cash-burn concerns, dragging the stock down 7.5%. The bar is set so high that even record numbers are facing sell-offs.

Bitcoin failed to participate in these rallies for three consecutive sessions, trading sideways around $64,000. Cheap oil, easing rate expectations, and strong risk appetite would typically lift crypto, but failed to do so this time. Ether registered a weekly loss of 2%, making it the only major cryptocurrency in the red. As equities hit new records, Bitcoin remains nearly 49% below its October peak of $126,000. If a Hormuz announcement is made today, it will be the clearest macro catalyst crypto sees this week; if the market cannot rally on a confirmed deal, it indicates buyers are looking elsewhere.

The $63,000 region represents a key battlefield. According to Glassnode, over 3% of the circulating supply—approximately 515,000 Bitcoins—is concentrated around $63,000. This marks the largest concentration since the 78,000–82,000 range during the May peak. The price also almost perfectly aligns with the 200-week moving average ($63,657).

Today brings the first major data points of labor week. ADP private payrolls and the ISM Services PMI offer early signals ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Additionally, Fed Governor Cook is scheduled to speak. The earnings calendar is dense, featuring Uber, DoorDash, eBay, Eli Lilly, Disney, and Novo Nordisk. An official announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is also anticipated today; if delivered, it would signal significant relief across the oil-inflation-interest rate axis.

Main Agenda

On the Brink of a Hormuz Deal: Oil Drops to $78

The most concrete signal of resolution in the five-month conflict has emerged. Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement targeted for Wednesday; Qatar also reported on Tuesday that mediators are making progress in efforts to end the U.S.–Iran conflict. Oil responded with a decline: Brent crude fell 1.1%–1.5% to $78.24–$78.50, pulling back $24 from its June peak of $102. Over the last three sessions, oil has erased the majority of its war premium.

However, a complicating factor remains: Tehran refuses to confirm Trump’s claim that ‘talks are already underway,’ making specific details of the agreement difficult to verify. As a result, the market is pricing in leaked reports without official confirmation. Analysts point to an emerging risk: vessel tracking reports indicate that oil flow from the Gulf is higher than anticipated, raising concerns that if the Strait reopens—even partially—the market could rapidly shift into an oversupply state.

The narrative is reversing: prices that rose for months on supply disruption fears are now falling due to potential oversupply. This reflects another manifestation of the TACO pattern; as the worst-case scenario (a total blockade or broader war) comes off the table, the accumulated premium rapidly dissipates.

The pullback in oil provided relief across other asset classes: bond yields fell (with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.60%), the probability of a September rate hike declined from 67% to 57%, and gold rose for three consecutive sessions to reach a two-week high of $4,134. Today’s official announcement will reveal how concrete this scenario is; if confirmed, oil could test levels below $75.

‘Good, But Not Good Enough’ Penalty Hits AI Giants

While stock markets set new records, earnings reports from AI leaders highlighted a sharp contradiction: while corporate figures remain strong, the bar of expectation has risen so high that stocks are being sold off regardless. AMD posted sales and outlook figures above Wall Street forecasts; however, this was deemed insufficient to justify its 142% year-to-date gain, driving the stock down 8.8%–9% in extended trading.

SpaceX’s debut quarterly report as a public company provided an even more striking example: revenue reached a record $7.8 billion, topping expectations of $6.9 billion. The quarterly net loss narrowed to $541 million (down from $1 billion a year prior), while adjusted operating profit nearly tripled. The primary concern lies in cash flow—or the lack thereof. Quarterly capital expenditure surged to $18.4 billion (versus expectations of $13 billion), with approximately $16 billion directed toward AI infrastructure alone.

Analysts expressed concern that this pace of cash burn could force the company to seek additional market financing through debt or equity issuances; SpaceX bonds have taken a heavy hit in recent weeks. After climbing 9.4%–10% during regular trading, the stock surrendered most of its gains, dropping 6%–7.5% in extended trading post-earnings.

A key technical test looms on August 6, when approximately 912 million shares held by employees and early investors become eligible for sale, which could expand the public float and exert further downward pressure. SpaceX’s earnings report also disclosed that it maintained its position of 18,712 Bitcoins, though the asset’s value fell from $1.64 billion to $1.10 billion as Bitcoin declined 33% over the period.

Bitcoin’s Three-Day Silence

Bitcoin’s price action this week presents a telling narrative. While global equities achieved new records fueled by AI momentum, crypto failed to participate in the rally. Bitcoin traded sideways just above $64,000, displaying daily price moves of less than 1% and remaining virtually flat on a 7-day basis. Ether slipped to $1,864, down 2% on the week, as the only negative major token.

Softer oil prices, easing interest rate expectations, and favorable equity risk appetite failed to move crypto over three consecutive sessions, suggesting that the primary market drivers are internal rather than macroeconomic. Bitcoin’s core challenge currently stems from weak demand rather than external market conditions. The data illustrates this clearly: while equities hit all-time highs, Bitcoin trades roughly 49% below its October peak of $126,000.

In this environment, a key technical level stands out. According to Glassnode, the $63,000 area has become a central battlefield: as Bitcoin has traded between $60,000 and $67,000 for several weeks, $63,000 has transformed into one of the heaviest supply clusters. Over 3% of circulating supply—roughly 515,000 Bitcoins—is concentrated here, with the only larger concentration occurring around $78,000–$82,000 during the May peak. Furthermore, this price level coincides closely with the 200-week moving average ($63,657), historically recognized as a key exhaustion point in bear markets.

Chip Competition Intensifies

Competition in the semiconductor sector continues to deepen. According to Reuters, Samsung and SK Hynix are evaluating chip manufacturing equipment from China’s Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) for potential use in their Chinese facilities to hedge against U.S.-related regulatory risks. This signals an effort by the two South Korean giants to diversify supply chains in anticipation of tighter U.S. export restrictions.

This development carries dual implications. On one hand, it supports South Korean chip stocks: the KOSPI surged 4% on Wednesday, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. On the other hand, it presents headwind risks for U.S. equipment makers like Applied Materials and Lam Research, which currently supply etching tools and face increasing export restriction exposure.

This reinforces a broader ongoing market theme: China is shifting from a fast-follower to an active competitor within the semiconductor supply chain, threatening the market share of established players and diminishing the leverage of U.S. export controls. Asian chip equities tracked Wall Street’s record close higher today, looking past pullbacks in SpaceX and AMD as broader sector optimism overshadowed individual earnings disappointments.

Macro Framework

Rate Expectations Recede, Dollar Weakens, Labor Week Underway

Falling oil prices and reduced inflation concerns pulled rate expectations lower: the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 67% to 57%–59% in a single day. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.60%, offering relief to the bond market after recent pressure. The Dollar Index remains anchored around 99, near two-month lows, providing support for dollar-denominated commodities.

Signals from the Federal Reserve were mixed: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted she remains open-minded regarding the policy outlook, acknowledging that higher rates might still be necessary. Fed Governor Lisa Cook is scheduled to speak today.

Data releases are accelerating: today brings ADP private payrolls and the ISM Services PMI, leading up to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The Japanese Yen hovers around 157.7 following joint intervention efforts, though Japanese government bond yields continue to rise despite intervention. The Euro trades near a 1.5-month high at $1.1559.

Overall, signals of easing conflict and lower oil prices reduce pressure on the Fed to hike rates in September. However, given uncertainty surrounding Warsh’s stance and persistent hawkish tone from certain members, policy decisions remain heavily dependent on the August 12 CPI data and Friday’s payrolls report—the final major data releases ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Gold Hits Two-Week High, Silver Exceeds $60

Precious metals rallied for a third consecutive session, supported by falling oil prices and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Gold gained 1.4% to reach $4,134, marking a two-week high, as lower oil eased inflation fears while the dollar’s softness provided additional momentum. Gold’s relationship with oil remains intact due to the latter’s broad influence on global economic inflation expectations; a clearer roadmap for geopolitical de-escalation could drive gold higher.

As oil trends downward, Citi’s Q4 target scenario of $4,500 gains traction over $3,900 downside scenarios. Silver advanced 2% to $60.70, Platinum rose 1% to $1,751 (its highest level since mid-June), and Palladium hit a two-month high. Industrial metals showed continued strength, with Copper remaining firm on solid manufacturing data and ongoing AI-driven demand. Oil’s trajectory will remain decisive: if Hormuz reopens and oil declines further, upside potential for gold expands.

Crypto Market Update

Bitcoin Holds $64,000: Whales and Retail Buying in the $63,000 Battlefield

Bitcoin sat out the global equity rally, trading flat just above $64,000 with daily price moves below 1% and 7-day performance near zero. Performance across altcoins was mixed: Ether fell to $1,864 (down 2% on the week, making it the only major in the red), XRP dropped 1% to $1.07, and Dogecoin dipped below 7 cents. Conversely, BNB rose over 1% to $598 (up 5% on the week to lead major tokens), while HYPE gained 3% to $56.

From a technical perspective, the price sits at a critical junction. With Bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $67,000 for weeks, this range represents a dense supply area: approximately 515,000 Bitcoins (3% of total supply) are clustered around $63,000, while 362,000 Bitcoins are held around $61,000. This level aligns with the 200-week moving average ($63,657), historically serving as a key bear-market structural floor.

A constructive signal emerges from accumulation behavior: Glassnode’s 30-day Accumulation Trend Score shows that retail investors are the most active buyers at these price levels, while all wallet cohorts—including whales holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins—are currently accumulating. This indicates broad-based accumulation across both retail and institutional participants, a typical prerequisite for forming a durable market bottom. However, buy-side momentum is not yet strong enough to push prices higher.

Today’s central test rests on the expected Hormuz announcement. If confirmed today, it represents the cleanest macroeconomic catalyst for crypto this week. A market that fails to rally on the prospect of a deal—or on a confirmed agreement—signals that buyer demand resides elsewhere. On the institutional front, SpaceX maintaining its 18,712 Bitcoin position (whose value declined to $1.10 billion due to market drawdowns) highlights the valuation adjustments corporate treasuries experienced over the period.

Regarding the Clarity Act, the outlook remains unchanged; time is short as the Senate recess begins on August 8. Crypto’s trajectory this week will depend as much on Friday’s payrolls data and broad risk sentiment as it does on its internal regulatory timeline.

Equities Focus

Record After Record: AI Momentum Returns, but Selectively

Wall Street set new records on Tuesday: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.3%. This strong momentum carried into Asian trading; the MSCI World Index rose 0.4% toward a new high, the Asia-Pacific index gained 2.2%, the Australian stock market touched a record peak, and the KOSPI jumped 4%.

AI optimism returned, though selectively: while SK Hynix and Samsung advanced, AMD and SpaceX faced pullbacks despite strong top-line performance due to strict valuation metrics. This divergence demonstrates that the market continues to demand clear bottom-line profitability visibility tied to AI spending.

Today’s earnings calendar is heavy, featuring Uber, DoorDash, eBay, Eli Lilly, Disney, Honeywell, SanDisk, and Western Digital in the U.S., alongside Siemens Energy, Infineon, Heineken, and Novo Nordisk in Europe. This broad cross-section will provide visibility into consumer, healthcare, tech, and industrial sectors. On the macro side, investors await ADP employment figures, the ISM Services PMI, and remarks from Fed Governor Cook.

Falling oil prices and lower rate expectations create a favorable environment for rate-sensitive sectors and growth stocks. However, catalyst sustainability remains a key consideration: earnings from major tech firms have largely passed, leaving limited new catalysts to push markets higher outside of Friday’s payrolls report and potential relief from a Hormuz agreement. With equities trading at record levels, positive news is largely priced in, leaving the market susceptible to near-term disappointments.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event / Indicator
August 5	Wednesday (Today)	ADP Private Payrolls; ISM Services PMI; Eurozone Services PMI & Producer Prices; Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech
August 5	Wednesday (Today)	Earnings: Uber, DoorDash, eBay, Eli Lilly, Disney, Honeywell, SanDisk; (Europe) Siemens Energy, Infineon, Novo Nordisk. Macro: Potential Strait of Hormuz deal announcement (Axios)
August 6	Thursday	U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; Palantir earnings; SpaceX lock-up expiration (911.5M shares eligible for sale)
August 7	Friday	U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls Report (Consensus: ~88k, Unemployment Rate: 4.3%) — key binary catalyst for BTC
August 8	Saturday	U.S. Senate summer recess begins — final legislative window closes for the Clarity Act
August 12	Wednesday	U.S. July CPI Report — central driver for September FOMC rate decision (implied hike probability currently at 57%–59%)