Strategic Analysis: Navigating Selective Transit Risks in Hormuz and the Return of Global Risk Appetite

16 March 2026 | ICRYPEX | Daily Newsletter

Monday, March 16, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts in Hormuz, macro trends, and the crypto short squeeze.

The week began with a strong opening. Following the U.S. strike on Kharg Island in Hormuz, Brent crude briefly surged to $106.50 before quickly retracing. Notably, two Indian LPG tankers transitioned through the Strait of Hormuz—the first commercial transit since the conflict began. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated, “The Strait is only closed to vessels of hostile nations.” Meanwhile, Trump claimed the U.S. is in talks with Iran; though Tehran denied this, the message was enough for the markets. This combination of news triggered a massive short squeeze across risk assets.

  • Oil: Brent is currently hovering around $104, down from its morning peak. WTI has slipped below $100.
  • Currencies & Equities: The Dollar weakened by 0.3%. S&P 500 futures opened +0.5%, marking the first gain after a five-day slump.
  • Crypto: BTC hit a peak of $74,000 and is currently trading around $73,700.

1. Selective Transit in the Strait of Hormuz

The situation is best described as “selectively restricted” rather than fully closed. Daily traffic has dropped from the usual 25 tankers to just two confirmed transits. However, the passage of Indian vessels and Iran’s “open to non-hostile nations” rhetoric suggest that cargoes linked to China and India may continue to flow quietly.

Analyst Warning: Many vessels are turning off their AIS transponders in high-risk waters, meaning the visible data may only represent part of the reality. Goldman Sachs warns that if the Strait remains closed through March, Brent could test the 2008 peak of $147.50.

  • Oil: Consolidation for Brent is expected slightly above $100. A break below $95 would signal the “melting of the inflation premium,” opening doors for risk assets. Conversely, a move above $106 would trigger a new wave of panic.

2. BTC Breaks Above 50-Day EMA for First Time in Two Months

A truly significant development for the crypto market unfolded this week. BTC hit a peak of $74,000, breaking above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average ($71,125) for the first time in two months, marking a weekly gain of +9.7%.

  • The Short Squeeze: This move was largely triggered by a short squeeze. Over the last 24 hours, $344 million in liquidations occurred, with $284.9 million (83%) being short positions. The largest single liquidation was a $6.94 million BTC position on Bitfinex.
  • Altcoin Performance: Evidence that this is more than just a squeeze can be found in altcoin performance: ETH +7.7%, SOL +5.6%, and XRP +4.2%. Capital is moving down the risk curve as altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin. ETH outpaced BTC by 4.6 percentage points, while SOL led by 2.3 points, signaling a genuine return of global risk appetite.

“A sustained breakout above the 50-day average could serve as a major turning point in the coming days.” However, caution is warranted: a similar breakout in early January lasted only two weeks before the sell-off resumed.

  • The Critical $75,000 Level: This is the key level to watch. It is where market makers currently hold billions of dollars in net short gamma positions. As the price nears this threshold, market makers will be forced to buy at higher prices to remain delta-neutral, which is expected to significantly amplify volatility.

3. Economic Calendar: A High-Impact Week

Today: Nvidia GTC 2026 begins. This four-day conference serves as a major catalyst for NVDA and AI-related stocks.

Tuesday, March 17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision.

Wednesday, March 18: Fed Interest Rate Decision + Jerome Powell Press Conference + Producer Price Index (PPI). Micron earnings. It is almost certain that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range.

  • The Main Question: How will Powell balance a “hawkish” stance against the oil shock versus a “dovish” stance regarding employment weakness?
  • Dot Plot: How many rate cuts will the dot plot show for the end of the year? The market is currently pricing in one cut.

Thursday, March 19: Bank of Japan (BoJ) + Swiss National Bank (SNB) + European Central Bank (ECB) decisions. FedEx earnings.

Macro Risk Outlook: The biggest risk this week is a hawkish tone from Powell combined with a dot plot showing zero cuts for the remainder of the year; this could trigger a sharp sell-off in BTC and altcoins. Conversely, a neutral to dovish tone would make a test of $75,000 inevitable.

Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Chart Data

  • Price: $80.00 (-0.72%)
  • EMA 20: $84.40
  • EMA 50: $82.00
  • EMA 200: $61.61

The price is currently compressed well below both the EMA 20 ($84.40) and EMA 50 ($82.00). Earlier this morning, it dropped to $77.09, hitting a three-week low.

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 44.87, it remains significantly below the RSI MA (50.61), staying in bearish territory with downward momentum.

Key Levels

  • Resistance Levels: $82.00 (EMA 50) → $84.40 (EMA 20) → $85.00–$90.00 (Recovery Zone).
  • Support Levels: $80.00 Psychological Support (currently holding) → $77.47 (Feb 20 Low) → $72.00 (Feb 17 Low).

Why is it falling?

  1. Profit Taking and Momentum Discharge: Following a rally exceeding 100% throughout 2025–2026, a technical correction was inevitable. In the “risk-on” environment created by the Hormuz Strait news, speculative capital is rotating out of silver and into crypto.
  2. Strong Dollar and Rising Bond Yields: The Dollar Index (DXY) is holding support around 100.50, with yields remaining high due to inflation concerns. As a non-yielding asset, silver is at a distinct disadvantage in this environment.
  3. Silver’s Unique Identity Crisis: A critical point highlighted by analysts: silver is neither a pure safe haven nor a pure industrial metal. The market is labeling it as a “high-volatility risky asset.” In a geopolitical climate like the Iran conflict, Gold attracts safe-haven bids while Crypto attracts risk-on capital, leaving silver caught in the middle.

Technical Risk: Head and Shoulders Pattern

Throughout February and March, a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern has been forming in both price action and the RSI. The RSI has already broken below the 50-neutral line. If this pattern is confirmed:

  • A close below $75: Opens the path to the $70–$65 zone.
  • In a more severe breakdown: The target becomes $50—which also aligns with the target of a potential bearish flag formation.

Two Scenarios

  • Bullish Scenario (Weekly close above $85): Targets open up sequentially at $90 → $97 → $100 → $117. This scenario would be triggered by a dovish FOMC, Brent falling below $95, and a return of broad risk appetite. Long-term support remains underpinned by industrial demand (solar panels, electronics).
  • Bearish Scenario (Close below $77.47): Opens the path to $72 → $65 → $60. FXStreet’s downside scenario specifically points toward the $72 mark.

Current Positioning Recommendation

While the $80 psychological support is attempting to hold, entering a LONG position is premature until the EMA 50 ($82.00) is reclaimed. Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will be the decider: a hawkish Fed tone could lead to a retest of $77, whereas a dovish tone may trigger a rapid recovery to the $82–$85 range. The risk/reward ratio only turns positive with a confirmed daily close above the EMA 50.