Week 5 of the War: Houthis Enter the Conflict, BTC Drops to $65,112 and Recovers
Monday, March 30, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.
MARKET SUMMARY — CURRENT PRICES
| Asset | Price | 24h | Weekly |
| BTC | $67,537 | +2.31% | -1.0% |
| ETH | $2,050 | +3.33% | -0.9% |
| SOL | $83.79 | +2.89% | -3.7% |
| XRP | $1.3554 | +2.07% | -1.9% |
| AVAX | $8.86 | +3.02% | -3.2% |
| GOLD | $4,526 | +0.74% | +3% |
| SILVER | $70.70 | +1.37% | +2.4% |
| COPPER | $5.53 | +0.88% | +5% |
| Brent | $110-115 | Record High | +90% YTD |
| Wheat | 604’0 | -0.17% | +22% since start of war |
1. MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: HOUTHIS ENTER THE WAR
The war reached its widest scope today. Iranian-backed Houthi forces joined the conflict, opening a new front beyond the Gulf. This development pulled BTC down to $65,112 today.
Today’s escalation chain: (1) Houthis entered the war — a new front beyond the US-Israel-Iran triangle. (2) Additional US ground forces arrived in the Middle East. (3) Iran targeted two aluminum production facilities in the region — aluminum rose by 6%. (4) Wall Street Journal: Trump wants to seize Iran’s enriched uranium through a military operation.
- Brent crude rose 2.5% to $115 — up 90% since the beginning of the year.
- Today’s stock market openings: Korea KOSPI -3.2%, Japan Nikkei -3.4%.
- S&P 500 futures fell sharply at first, partially recovering in the second half of the Asian session.
- BTC recovered from a low of $65,112 to the $67,400+ level — finding buyers at $65K is noteworthy.
The importance of aluminum: After oil, aluminum has entered the second link in the inflation transmission chain. As the cost of aluminum—ranging from canned goods to car bodies, packaging to construction—increases, producer inflation further ties the Fed’s hands.
2. BTC $65,112: CRITICAL SUPPORT TEST
The pattern Bitcoin has formed since the start of the war was broken today for the first time.
BTC Bottom Trend Throughout the War
| Date | Bottom Level | Evaluation |
| Feb 28 (Start of War) | $64,000 | War bottom — starting point |
| ~Week 1 | $66,000 | Higher bottom — positive |
| ~Week 2 | $68,000 | Higher bottom — positive |
| ~Week 3 | $69,400 | Higher bottom — positive |
| ~Week 4 | $70,596 | Higher bottom — positive |
| March 30 (Today) | $65,112 | WARNING: Higher bottom pattern broken |
The 5-week higher bottom series was broken today. BTC fell to $65,112 — this level is just above the February war bottom of $64,000. The recovery is positive, but it is critical for the close to remain above this level.
- Death cross warning: A death cross formation is being reported in BTC — technical confirmation of short-term momentum loss.
- $12 billion short positions: There is an accumulation of short positions above this figure in the derivatives market. If the price breaks upward, a sharp short squeeze could occur.
- Stablecoin balances are strong: Capital is not leaving the crypto market; it is rotating into stablecoins.
3. BTC ETF: WEEKLY OUTFLOW OF $290 MILLION
Last week’s ETF flow table clearly reflected the risk-off environment.
- Cumulative outflow last week (March 24-27): ~$296 million.
- Largest single day: Friday with $225.5 million; the largest weekly outflow.
- BlackRock IBIT: $201.5 million outflow on Friday alone — the largest single fund outflow of the week.
- However, total BTC ETF inflows for this month remain net positive at $2.5 billion.
Pratik Kala, Head of Apollo Crypto: “$290 million is not that dramatic compared to current trends. ETF flows are not just directional funds — hedge fund basis trades are included in these flows. Therefore, structural conclusions should not be drawn from weekly flows.”
Josh Gilbert, eToro Analyst: “Triple-digit oil prices fuel inflation fears, pushing back interest rate cut expectations, which prevents risk assets from finding a floor. However, news of a ceasefire could ignite a strong recovery rally.”
In the Myriad prediction market, 56.8% of users are pricing in that it is more likely for BTC to fall to $55,000 than to rise to $84,000.
4. THE FED’S HANDS ARE FURTHER TIED
WSJ: A mood has been detected within the Fed that is open to discussing not only keeping rates steady but also the possibility of increasing them. Inflationary pressure is coming through tariffs, oil, and now aluminum.
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook: “Energy price increases caused by the Iran war are raising prices; persistent inflation is the biggest risk.”
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: “A rate hike may be necessary depending on the situation” — Goolsbee was previously in the dovish camp.
- S&P 500 EPS expectations have risen 3.6% since the start of the war — the fastest increase in 5 years. This value indicates that corporate earnings remain strong despite the war.
- Brent at $115 is +90% YTD. Macquarie scenario: If it remains closed until the end of April, $150.
Wall Street still sees the probability of a rate hike as low, but the fact that this discussion is happening is an important signal for the markets. A month ago, two rate cuts were being priced in for this year.
5. THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR
| Date | Data / Event | Why It Matters |
| Tuesday, March 31 | Consumer Confidence Index (March) | First report to measure the war’s impact |
| Wednesday, April 1 | ADP Employment (March) | Leading indicator before NFP |
| Wednesday, April 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Production health |
| Thursday, April 2 | Trade Deficit (February) | View on oil dependency |
| Friday, April 3 | EMPLOYMENT REPORT (March) | Critical data of the week — was -92K in Feb |
| Friday, April 3 | ISM Services PMI | Represents the majority of the economy |
| Ongoing | April 6 Iran Deadline | Trump’s new deadline |
The March employment report is the most critical data of the week. In February, a loss of 92,000 jobs was experienced. Whether the March data confirms this loss will shape the Fed’s next move. Weak data = the “more Fed pressure” paradox.
6. WAR MAP — ESCALATION CHRONOLOGY
| Date | Development | Market Impact |
| February 28 | US-Israel launched attack on Iran | BTC $64K, sudden spike in oil |
| Week 1 | Attack on Qatar LNG facility | LNG prices, gold sell-off |
| Week 2 | Saudi/UAE allow US base usage | Conflict became regional |
| Week 3 | Trump 48-hour ultimatum | Sharp risk-off movement |
| March 23 | 5-day extension / Iran rejection | 18-hour rally / immediately erased |
| March 24 | Pentagon 10K troops news | Gains wiped out |
| March 26-27 | New 10-day extension | Temporary relief |
| March 30 (Today) | Houthis entered the war | BTC $65,112, aluminum +6% |
| April 6 | New deadline | The most critical date in the market’s focus |