Global Markets Reprice Risk as Iran Deal Optimism Fuels Equities, Crypto, and Oil Volatility

Monday, May 25, 2026 | Daily briefing on Iran deal talks, inflation risks, Asian market records, and crypto volatility.

Main Agenda

We are starting the week with a sharp trigger in global risk appetite. On Saturday night, Trump announced on Truth Social: “An agreement between the U.S., Iran, and several other countries has been largely negotiated and is expected to be finalized. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.” This announcement pushed BTC from the 74,000 range to 76,700 on Friday night, followed by additional recovery during the Asian session. On Sunday, however, Trump shifted tone: “Negotiations are progressing regularly and constructively. I told my representatives not to rush — time is on our side.”

This message triggered a sharp selloff in oil: WTI fell 5.87% to $90.93, while Brent declined 5.58% to $97.76, marking the first drop below $100 for Brent this month. A recovery is visible this morning, but weekly losses remain striking: Brent -10.61%, WTI -11.10%.

Diplomatic momentum pushed Asian markets to record highs. Nikkei 225 surpassed 65,000 for the first time in history — up 2.86% daily with an intraday record of 65,408. Taiwan’s Taiex climbed above 43,000, reaching an all-time high. European futures indicate CAC 40 +0.9% and DAX +1.1% at the open, while the UK FTSE 100 remains closed today due to the spring bank holiday. U.S. markets are also closed for Memorial Day, meaning global liquidity is extremely thin.

Friday’s U.S. close had already established new records: Dow 50,579 (+0.58%), S&P 500 7,473 (+0.37%), Nasdaq 26,343 (+0.19%). We are clearly entering a renewed phase of risk appetite.

At the same time, skeptical voices remain loud. According to MS Now, the negotiated deal includes reopening Hormuz, ending hostilities, unfreezing certain Iranian assets, and guarantees for renewed nuclear negotiations. However, two major obstacles remain unresolved: Supreme Leader Khamenei’s directive that enriched uranium must remain inside Iran, and transit fees to be imposed on Hormuz passages. Tasnim Agency reported that disagreements regarding frozen asset releases could still collapse negotiations.

Macro Framework

Iran Deal: Optimism or Structural Deadlock?

Trump’s Saturday statement brought a critical stress test to the diplomatic environment. In Asia, oil inventories are already near operational minimum levels. Europe may face issues within roughly a month, while the U.S. could begin seeing problems by July.

Jeff Currie’s highlighted point remains important: global inventory figures are misleading because a significant portion of stored oil worldwide is not immediately usable. Part of it is required simply to keep pipeline and storage systems functioning safely. “Jet fuel inventories in Singapore declined, but diesel moved above jet fuel; the issue shifted from jet to diesel, it did not disappear.”

All barrels withdrawn from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are being exported to Europe. Europeans believe “there is no problem,” but this is unsustainable. Currie’s final assessment: “Iran’s bargaining power has never been stronger in 47 years; inventories are falling every day, strengthening Iran’s position.” Trump’s Sunday message — “I will not rush” — effectively acknowledges this asymmetric negotiating ground.

Inflation & The Fed: PCE Week

The key macro event of the week will be Thursday’s U.S. April PCE data release. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and will directly impact the volatile bond market environment.

March figures were already alarming: headline PCE reached 3.5% YoY (vs. 2.8% in February), while core PCE stood at 3.2%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. April CPI came in hot at 3.8%, providing an early signal for PCE. Market consensus expects core PCE to rise to 3.3%.

Three scenarios are on the table:

1. Lower-than-expected reading → relief following the recent bond selloff.
2. In-line reading → markets maintain the current “wait-and-see” stance; no cuts in sight, but no panic either.
3. Hotter-than-expected reading → the “higher for longer” narrative evolves into simply “higher,” putting pressure on equities, bonds, mortgages, and all cheap-money-sensitive assets.

On the bond side, the U.S. 30-year Treasury briefly touched 5.20% last week — the highest level since 2007. A widely followed global fund manager survey showed 62% expecting yields to eventually reach 6%.

Before the Iran conflict, markets were pricing 2–3 Fed cuts this year. Now, there is roughly a 40% probability of a rate hike by December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated last week that an Iran-driven energy shock could accelerate inflation and require tighter monetary policy for longer.

Kevin Warsh officially assumed his position as Fed Chair on Friday. The tension between Trump’s preference for rate cuts and the Fed’s currently hawkish stance will become a key market dynamic.

Senate Deadlock: Clarity Act Delayed

A critical development for crypto markets: when the U.S. Senate entered Memorial Day recess, lawmakers left without voting on the compromise bill funding DHS. The reason was a dispute over a controversial $1.8 billion “weaponization fund,” criticized by both sides as “dark money.”

Trump’s requested $1 billion East Wing ballroom funding had already been removed from the bill, yet this additional funding issue caused a deadlock.

This directly impacts the timeline of the Clarity Act. The Senate only has 19 working days in June, 15 in July, and 5 in August. During that limited period, lawmakers must also handle the compromise bill, the FISA renewal expiring in mid-June, and likely a housing bill.

The ethics clause remains the final obstacle for Clarity, while the White House still has not clearly defined what it is willing to accept. The bill could slip into September.

Asian Markets: Nikkei Record, China Positive

Nikkei 225 breaking above 65,000 for the first time is a structural moment. Weakness in the yen, expectations of Hormuz reopening, and rising risk appetite fueled the rally. Topix gained 1.19%.

Taiwan Taiex climbed above 43,000 as the leader of the AI supply chain — driven by TSMC and semiconductor names. Shanghai CSI 300 rose 0.91%, while India’s Nifty 50 gained 1.09%.

Hong Kong and South Korea remain closed for holidays. European futures indicate CAC 40 +0.9% and DAX +1.1%, while UK markets stay closed.

Because U.S. markets are closed for Memorial Day, there will be no trading in American equities today. This means global liquidity remains extremely thin due to holiday conditions — price movements may become exaggerated and momentum could extend in a one-sided manner.

Crypto

BTC trades at $77,297. Following Friday night’s drop into the 74,000 range, Trump’s peace-deal announcement attracted liquidity back into the market.

A key technical observation: BTC retested its previous structural breakout level on Saturday and rebounded successfully. The 77,000 support zone is critical today. Holding above it keeps the path open toward higher leverage zones; breaking below it could shift focus toward the 75,200 buyer region.

Between Monday and Saturday, large short leverage accumulated within the 74,000–75,000 range. Forced covering from liquidated shorts in that area may continue supporting short-term upside momentum. According to CryptoQuant data, the risk of a $10,000 short squeeze remains on the table.

On the other hand, Santiment highlights a clear structural weakness: BTC spot demand is at its lowest level since the beginning of the year — a four-month low. Liquidity is drying up, and Daily Active Address activity continues trending downward. Since Saturday, the rally’s underlying structure has not yet become organically supported.

A major infrastructure development this week: Nasdaq PHLX received conditional SEC approval to list cash-settled, European-style BTC options under the ticker QBTC. CFTC approval is still pending.

The details are structurally important: QBTC options will track the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, settle in dollars, and trade directly on Nasdaq’s equity platform. This allows investors to hedge BTC and trade volatility using existing brokerage accounts without needing separate derivatives accounts.

Each contract represents 1 BTC notional exposure (compared to CME’s 5 BTC contracts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars), enabling more precise hedging for smaller institutions and retail participants.

Structurally, this could significantly expand BTC options volume. Additionally, the Fed’s recently updated “skinny” master account proposal may open pathways for crypto firms to access Fed payment rails.

ETH trades at $2,103 and remains within a bearish flag structure. The 2,180 resistance level still has not been broken, keeping the structural short thesis intact.

As Santiment noted, ETH’s 60-day Realized Cap remains a critical support level. ETH must hold above this zone to avoid deeper weakness. Options data also indicates a strongly negative gamma environment weighing against ETH. There is currently no catalyst for structural recovery through spot demand.

Governance discussions around the Ethereum Foundation continue. Following criticism from Dankrad Feist and Laura Shin, the community has begun actively debating new governance structures for the ecosystem.

Commodities Environment

The heart of the commodity market this morning remains oil.

Brent retreated to $100.21 (-3.22% daily, -10.61% weekly), while WTI sits at $96.60 (-11.10% weekly). Trump’s “I won’t rush” statement triggered losses exceeding 5% during the Asian session.

Active diplomatic momentum extended downside pressure, but Currie’s warning from Carlyle keeps the structural issue alive: Asia is already operating at minimum inventory levels, Europe could face shortages within a month, and the U.S. by July.

Although oil withdrawn from the U.S. SPR is being redirected toward Europe, this is unsustainable. A physical supply bottleneck in Europe is approaching. IEA Director Birol’s “red zone” warning — that global energy markets could enter a critical phase during July–August — remains valid.

Oil prices are therefore oscillating between diplomatic optimism and structural inventory depletion. Iran’s two critical demands — domestic retention of enriched uranium and transit fees through Hormuz — could still sabotage the agreement at the last minute.

By Friday, Brent consolidating around $100 appears likely. If negotiations collapse, a rapid rebound toward $105–110 becomes possible; if a concrete agreement materializes, prices could slide toward the $90–95 range.

Gold trades at $4,550, with safe-haven premiums retreating amid diplomatic optimism. Bloomberg data showed gold reaching $4,564 overnight, but signals of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations pressured prices lower.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “good news may emerge from the Hormuz region.” Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller’s comments that “an energy shock could accelerate inflation and require tighter monetary policy” added additional pressure on gold.

The long-term thesis from the previous Holland Gold report remains intact: Goldman Sachs and Lombard Odier maintain 12-month targets of $5,400, while Q1 physical demand reached a record 790 tons. However, in the short term, gold appears trapped within a $4,500–4,700 range.

Silver remains stable around $76.20, while platinum and palladium posted mild recoveries (palladium at $1,360, weekly -4.06%). Precious metals overall continue trading neutral-to-weak amid geopolitical agreement headlines.

Copper once again outperformed positively: $6,379 (+0.58% daily, +1.71% weekly). The structural AI infrastructure demand thesis remains intact despite diplomatic momentum. Prices remain above all EMAs with strong momentum support.

NVIDIA’s Q1 beat, featuring 85% data center growth and continued global data center expansion, remains a major structural tailwind.

Wheat holds a positive weekly position at +1.65%, supported by higher transportation costs linked to oil volatility and persistent agricultural supply uncertainty. Coffee fell 4.30% weekly, while palladium lost 4.06%, with energy-linked weaknesses continuing.

Weekly Calendar

Date	Day	Event
May 25	Monday	U.S. Memorial Day holiday | UK Spring Bank Holiday | Asian market records
May 26	Tuesday	U.S. Consumer Confidence (May) | Dallas Fed Manufacturing (May)
May 27	Wednesday	China Industrial Profits (April) | ECB Financial Stability Report | Salesforce earnings
May 28	Thursday	U.S. April PCE Inflation | ECB Minutes | Dell Technologies and Costco earnings
May 29	Friday	Japan Unemployment/Retail/Production Data (April) | U.S. Chicago PMI (May)
Weekend	Ongoing	U.S.–Iran negotiations | China May PMI (Sunday)