Trump’s Executive Orders & Macro Shifts: Global Market Intelligence Report

Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

1. Executive Summary & Core Market Drivers

Three major developments are converging today. First, President Trump signed two critical executive orders yesterday. The first mandates financial regulators to review crypto firms’ access to payment rails; specifically, the Fed Board has been directed to evaluate the access of uninsured depository institutions and non-bank financial entities to payment accounts. This move is a structural win for Wyoming SPDIs (Kraken received limited master account access this year) and stablecoin issuers. Second, the U.S. Senate advanced a resolution halting Trump’s military action against Iran. The resolution may not become law due to Trump’s veto power. However, it signals rising domestic political costs for war. This is especially true as gasoline prices surge ahead of the summer driving season and the 2026 midterm elections. Third, Putin is meeting Xi in Beijing, with the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline at the center of the agenda. The plan involves 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Yamal to China via Mongolia. A legally binding memorandum was signed in September 2025. However, pricing, financing, and delivery schedules remain open.

Market Data Snapshot:

• US 30Y Yield: 5.197% (Highest since July 2007)
• US 10Y Yield: 4.69%
• Equity Markets: S&P 500 (3-day losing streak), Nasdaq & Dow under sell pressure.
• European Open: FTSE (-0.6%), DAX (-0.7%), CAC (-0.5%), FTSE MIB (-0.4%).

2. Macro Framework & Monetary Policy

Fed and Bonds: Hawkish/Dovish Signals Awaited

The FOMC minutes to be released after the U.S. market close come mid-way through a five-day interest rate pricing cycle. A week ago, the market was asking “how many cuts until December”; now the question is “how many hikes until December”—the CME FedWatch probability for a year-end hike jumped to 40%, with a 50 bps hike at 9%. Wintermute’s note is clear: “In five trading days, expectations shifted from cuts to potential hikes; the market may need time to digest this repricing.” Kevin Warsh officially takes office this Friday with an inauguration ceremony; his first statements following yesterday’s G7 meeting will be closely watched. A key focus in the minutes will be the intensity of pressure from committee members to shift toward a neutral stance and whether the oil shock has been factored into the inflation outlook.

Trump’s Two Executive Orders: Crypto and BSA

The two executive orders signed Tuesday are structurally positive for the crypto sector. The first focuses on crypto payment rails. It directs the update of regulatory frameworks to “integrate digital assets and innovative technology into traditional financial services and payment systems.” Regulators will review existing rules within three months, with “innovation-incentivizing” steps to be taken within six months. The Fed Board will evaluate payment account access for uninsured depository institutions and non-bank financial firms; additionally, the authority of the 12 Federal Reserve banks to grant independent payment accounts without Board approval will be investigated. This is a direct gain for Wyoming SPDIs, stablecoin issuers, and Trump-affiliated crypto entities. ICBA CEO Rebecca Romero Rainey argued for a “pause and holistic evaluation of stablecoin, Fed master account, and OCC national trust charter policies”—underscoring the banking lobby’s clear concerns. The second executive order strengthens the Bank Secrecy Act to block undocumented immigrants from bank account access and scrutinizes the use of third-party payment processors and P2P platforms to circumvent reporting thresholds.

Iran: Senate Rejection, Oil Remains High

The U.S. Senate advanced a resolution to stop Trump’s military action against Iran. While it won’t become law due to a veto, the vote is a symbolic signal: the domestic political cost of war is rising. Trump stated yesterday that he was “one hour away from an attack on Iran” on Tuesday but postponed it at the request of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari leaders—explicitly confirming how close the attack scenario was. The oil market reacted neutrally to this message: Brent at $110.68, WTI at $103.68. September contracts are above $100, while December sits at all-time highs. Capital Economics’ “Brent at $130-$140 by year-end” scenario remains valid, as warnings of supply bottlenecks for Europe persist.

Putin-Xi: Power of Siberia 2 and China’s Strategic Calculation

Putin is in the second day of his two-day summit with Xi in Beijing. The main agenda is the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline: 2,600 km long, carrying 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Although a memorandum was signed in September 2025, pricing is unresolved—China demands Russian domestic market prices ($120-$130 per 1,000 cubic meters), while Moscow seeks double that, closer to Power of Siberia 1 terms. The war in Iran has disrupted half of China’s oil imports and one-third of its LNG supply via the Strait of Hormuz, giving the land pipeline new strategic importance. However, Kpler data shows China holds 1.23 billion barrels in land stocks (92 days of refining) and its domestic gas production rose 2.7% in April. Michael Feller of Geopolitical Strategy notes, “The pipeline deal signals that mutual interdependence is safer than the alternative.” The deal would make the China-Russia relationship nearly inseparable for the rest of the world.

Technology: Karpathy Joins Anthropic, Gemini 3.5 Flash Announcement

A new move in the AI talent war: OpenAI co-founder and former Tesla AI lead Andrej Karpathy has joined Anthropic—starting this week, he will lead the team accelerating Claude’s pre-training research. Meanwhile, Google announced Gemini 3.5 Flash; Sundar Pichai claims it offers similar capabilities to frontier models at half or even one-third the price. SpaceX has partnered with Goldman Sachs for its IPO, with the prospectus expected tomorrow—Musk’s latest valuation sits at $1.25 trillion. Nvidia announced a new research center in Singapore today focusing on embodied AI and infrastructure efficiency. Today’s NVDA earnings are the focal point for Wall Street; with expectations “sky-high” and the stock up 36% from its March lows, this is a trend-defining test.

3. Crypto Asset Dynamics & Derivatives

BTC is attempting to hold above $77,000—trading at $77,164 this morning following a limited recovery from yesterday’s $76,020 bottom-test. A K33 Research report differentiates the current environment from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. In those cycles, BTC collapsed under its own weight after aggressive leverage rallies following a 200-day SMA rejection. This time is different: the 30-day funding rate has been negative for 81 days (near-record), and the CME futures annual basis is below 2.5%—indicating traders have been consistently pessimistic since the February bottom. K33 views this “bottom-like” sentiment as a structural shift rather than a “bear rally.” Vetle Lunde’s base case suggests the $60,000 February low was the cycle’s maximum drawdown, setting the stage for a “measured bull market in 2025.”

Derivatives & On-Chain Risk Analysis:

• ETFs: $1.5B total outflows since May 7; Monday alone saw $648M (highest since Jan 29).
• Net Flows: May net flow has turned negative (-$396M).
• CVD Metrics: Spot (-$126.2M), Perps (-$368.5M) — indicating aggressive selling.
• Option Skew: Rose from 10.9% to 14.4% (Put premiums becoming more expensive).
• Liquidation Map: $3.4B long exposure at $74,700; $11B exposure at $70,000.
• Sentiment: Retail long ratio at 60.7% (RSI 74.9). Historical bottoms typically occur below 35%.

On the regulatory front, Trump’s executive order is directly positive for XRP, Ripple, and the stablecoin segment: the review of Fed master account access paves the way for firms operating under the Wyoming SPDI framework. The merger of the Clarity Act texts between the Senate Agriculture and Banking committees continues, with the ethics clause being the final hurdle. The Hyperliquid-Coinbase-Circle USDC deal is estimated by Compass Point to transfer $60-$80 million from Circle’s annual EBITDA; under Ryan Watkins’ framework, Hyperliquid could see $135-$160 million in annual revenue, potentially reaching $300-$500 million if stablecoin balances grow. This signals a structural paradigm shift in DeFi protocol-stablecoin economics.

4. Commodities & Precious Metals Landscape

Gold fell an additional 1.84% yesterday to $2,482—the lowest since late March. COMEX futures sit at $2,476 while spot is around $2,482. Today, it dropped another 0.59%. Rising global real yields and a strong dollar are the primary headwinds. With the 30-year U.S. Treasury at a record 5.197% and the 10-year at 4.69%, JP Morgan lowered its 2026 average gold forecast from $2,708 to $2,243. While the structural bullish outlook remains, the pace has slowed. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank notes the investment thesis is “intact,” and central bank buying will return once energy-driven selling pressure subsides. Silver fell another 5.7% to $73.25, platinum dropped 2.8% to $1,923, and palladium fell 3.3% to $1,371—a broad sell-off across the precious metals family.

The critical macro question: What signals will the Fed minutes send tonight? A hawkish tone would keep pressure on gold, testing the $2,450 support level; if broken, $2,350-$2,400 and eventually $2,000 come into play. If the minutes show a push toward a neutral stance—despite oil-inflation fears—gold could recover quickly. The current bond rally is fueled not just by inflation but by corporate borrowing for AI investments and signals of accelerating U.S. growth, which acts as a structural weight on gold.

Copper faces similar pressure, falling to $6,189. Although stable yesterday at -0.16%, it is down 6.73% for the week. The EMA50 ($6,000) is the structural support line; a close below this would challenge Citi’s thesis that AI data centers and energy transition drive all copper demand. Despite this, the structural trend remains bullish: Price > EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200. In oil, Brent is at $110.68 and WTI at $103.68; despite a slight pullback following Trump’s attack delay, the Hormuz crisis has a structural impact. China increased domestic crude production by 1.2% in April while cutting refinery throughput by 5.8%, signaling lasting demand damage.

5. Critical Macro Calendar

Date	Day	Developments / Economic Events
May 20	Wednesday	• Fed Minutes (Evening) • NVDA Earnings • Putin-Xi Beijing Summit (Day 2) • UK PPI Data
May 21	Thursday	• Walmart Earnings
May 22	Friday	• Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Official Inauguration