Global Markets Recovery: BTC Breaks Losing Streak Amid Trump’s Geopolitical Pivot
Wednesday, April 1, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.
1. YESTERDAY’S KEY DEVELOPMENTS — THREE INDICES SEE BEST DAY SINCE MAY
On March 31, 2026, the last day of March, markets experienced a violent recovery. Four separate positive signals arrived simultaneously:
- Iranian President Pezeshkian told the President of the European Council that they have “the necessary will to end the war” (IRNA/Bloomberg).
- Trump told the NYT that the war is “likely to end soon”; he implied the strait would open automatically after the US exit.
- Wall Street Journal: Trump informed his circle that he could end the military operation even if Hormuz is not fully opened.
- CoreWeave: Announced an $8.5 billion investment facility — contributing to an early rally in AI stocks.
| Index | Close | Daily | May Ref. |
| Dow Jones | 46,341 | +2.49% | Best since May |
| S&P 500 | 6,528 | +2.91% | Best since May |
| Nasdaq | 21,590 | +3.83% | Best since May |
| 2Y Treasury | 3.80% | −15 bps | – |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.31% | −4 bps | – |
Warning: J.P. Morgan technical strategist Jason Hunter: “The headline-driven recovery is occurring while there is no clear technical evidence that the war has ended and multiple market key pattern support levels have been broken. Geopolitical news can create a V-shaped bottom — but the technical picture remains fragile until the market starts to exceed key short-term resistance levels.”
2. BTC MARCH PERFORMANCE — BROKE 5-MONTH LOSING STREAK
Bitcoin closed March with a 1.8% increase. This marks the first positive month since September 2025 and the end of a streak of 5 consecutive red monthly candles.
| Comparison | Figure | Note |
| BTC March Return | +1.8% | 5-month losing streak broken |
| Nasdaq March | −10%+ | Closed in correction territory |
| S&P 500 March | −7% | Worst quarter since 2022 |
| Gold March | −12% | Worst month since 2013 |
| BTC April Historical Avg. | +12.1% / median +5.04% | But out of trend since late 2025 |
| BTC January 2026 | −10.1% | Far below historical average |
| BTC February 2026 | −14.9% | Far below historical average |
- BTC is +1.4% since the war began (February 28). Nasdaq and S&P futures fell over -6% in the same period.
- CryptoQuant: Market bottom between June-December 2026, most likely window September-November. Many analysts speak of a sub-$40,000 bottom scenario.
- Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson: “The shortest cycle peak in history came 534 days after the April 2024 halving. According to the historical bottom pattern, it points to 912–922 days later — namely September–October 2026.”
3. ETF FLOWS — BITCOIN IS BACK, ETH BREAKS 8-DAY OUTFLOW STREAK
| ETF | Net Flow |
| Bitcoin ETF | +$69.44M |
| Ethereum ETF | +$4.96M |
| XRP ETF | −$2.31M |
| Solana ETF | −$6.17M |
The divergence is becoming clearer: While Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize, smaller assets continue to lose capital. BlackRock: Institutional money is in BTC and ETH — no interest in altcoins.
Easter Week Warning
- K33 (Vetle Lunde): Since 2019, BTC 7-day trading volume during Easter week falls below the annual average. Decline range: between 8% and 58%. Volatility can compress by up to 60%.
- Leveraged BTC short ETFs increased their positions by 22% to reach 9,012 BTC. Second highest level in history.
- Perpetual funding rate has been negative for 32 consecutive days — bearish sentiment has turned into a crowded position.
- Spot volume average $2.7 billion/day — lowest since mid-February.
4. CRITICAL TONIGHT: TRUMP 21:00 ET IRAN SPEECH
White House statement: President Trump will share an “important update on Iran” tonight (April 1) at 21:00 ET (04:00 TRT).
- Trump told reporters in the afternoon that he expects the war to end “in 2-3 weeks.”
- Defense Secretary Hegseth: “The coming days will be decisive.”
- Iran denies negotiations are taking place but confirms “exchange of messages” via mediators.
- The IRGC threat against major US tech firms remains an active tail risk.
- Iranian military attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker (off Dubai) — Brent under pressure.
Market reaction: A sharp rally if the speech gives ceasefire confirmation or a timeline; a sharp sell-off if it gives an ambiguous message or escalation. Tonight is the most critical geopolitical moment.
5. GOLD: UBS $6,200 TARGET — WORST MONTH MAY BE BEHIND
UBS CIO Mark Haefele: Gold could rise to $6,200 by the end of June — nearly 35% from today’s level. Year-end target $5,900.
- Why it fell so much: “History shows that gold does not always rise during conflict periods, especially in the initial stage.” Plus, interest rate hike expectations, dollar strengthening, and liquid assets being sold to meet margin calls.
- The sharpest 5-day drop in March was of a magnitude not seen in 40 years.
- UBS: We expect the Fed to cut rates this year. If this expectation comes true, gold enters a primary beneficiary position.
- March 31: Gold futures rose 3% to reach approximately $4,695.
Chart view: Price $4,685. EMA 20 (4,730) and EMA 50 (4,791) are in resistance positions. But CVD +46.4K — buying flow continues. EMA 200 (4,223) is still $462 below — structural support is maintained.
6. GOOGLE QUANTUM REPORT — BITCOIN TIMELINE COMES FORWARD EXPECTEDLY
Google Quantum AI technical report dated March 31, 2026: Cryptography protecting Bitcoin can be broken with 500,000 physical qubits. Previous estimate: millions of qubits. A 20-fold improvement.
- Google’s most advanced chip, Willow: 105 qubits. Far from the 500,000 qubits required for an attack. However, the gap is closing faster than expected.
- Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation: “My confidence for q-day in 2032 has significantly increased. At least a 10% chance — I think a quantum computer will capture a Bitcoin private key by that year.”
- Affected: ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Does not affect SHA-256 mining.
- Ethereum: 2029 full protection target. Bitcoin: BIP-360 merged in February but has not yet defined the full replacement of ECDSA.
Short-term price impact limited: An attack is not possible today. But the long-term structural question will increasingly enter the agenda, especially for institutional investors.
7. THIS WEEK’S CRITICAL CALENDAR
| Date | Data / Event | Importance |
| Tonight 21:00 ET | Trump Iran Speech | MOST CRITICAL EVENT OF THE WEEK |
| April 1 Wednesday | ADP Employment (March) — exp. +38,500 | NFP preview |
| April 1 Wednesday | Retail Sales (February) — exp. +0.4% | Consumer reality |
| April 1 Wednesday | ISM Manufacturing PMI — exp. 52.3 | Still in expansion zone |
| April 2 Thursday | Trade Deficit (February) | Oil import effect |
| April 3 Friday | EMPLOYMENT REPORT (March) | CRITICAL DATA: Feb -92,000 |
| April 3 Friday | ISM Services PMI | Majority of the economy |
| April 6 Tuesday | Trump-Iran Deadline | Most critical geopolitical date |
| April 10 | CPI (March) | Will measure inflation as real |