Islamabad Talks Fail | US Hormuz Blockade | Oil $105 | BTC Trendline Rejection | Earnings Season Begins

Monday, April 13, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

1. MAIN AGENDA: ISLAMABAD TALKS FAIL, US DECLARES BLOCKADE

1.1 What Happened?

• Negotiations in Pakistan, which lasted 21 hours, collapsed after Iran refused to terminate its nuclear program. Trump’s definition of this point as “the only matter that really matters” reveals the structural nature of the deadlock. Iran, on the other hand, argued that the nuclear issue should not be a prerequisite for a temporary ceasefire.
• The US naval blockade will take effect today at 17:00 TSI. All maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports will be blocked by the US. Transit from Hormuz to non-Iranian ports will be permitted. However, Iran continues to claim that it controls the passage, which in practice means commercial ships cannot pass.
• The oil market reacted instantly: WTI futures surged 8.4% at the open to $104.72, while Brent jumped above $102, rising over 7.3%. This recoups all the premium lost during last week’s ceasefire rally. WTI is up a total of +55% since the war began.
• Trump acknowledged the political consequences of the process in a rare admission: he stated that oil and gasoline prices could remain high until the November 2026 midterm elections. This implies both economic pressure and that the Trump administration remains open to negotiation.

1.2 Market Reaction: “Peak Fear Has Passed”

• Notably, the market reaction remained much more measured compared to previous escalations. S&P 500 futures are -0.7%, Asian indices around -1%, and Europe -1.3%. However, considering these losses offset last week’s gains, the picture is less daunting.
• Global X strategist Billy Leung: “Markets have reached peak uncertainty. The reaction is no longer as extreme. They are pricing in Trump’s motivations better.”
• Ten Cap portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu: “VIX peaked a few weeks ago; this is likely the peak of fear and selling; from here, the market will try to correct itself.” This reading indicates that general market selling pressure has been partially absorbed.
• Important warning: The war powers resolution is back on the agenda in the US Congress. Trump’s window to continue the conflict without Congressional approval is narrowing, a situation that is no longer being priced in.

2. MACRO FRAMEWORK

2.1 Oil, Inflation, and the Fed: The Vicious Cycle Continues

• The March CPI (US Consumer Price Index) released on Friday came in at +3.3% annually (compared to 2.4% in February). The energy category alone increased by +12.5%. Core CPI remained relatively calm at +2.6%, showing that underlying inflation is still within reasonable limits when part of the energy effect is excluded. Before the war, there were expectations for two rate cuts this year; now the market is pricing in zero cuts.
• This dynamic intensified with the re-declaration of the blockade. As long as oil remains above $100, central banks are under pressure to tighten. The Japanese 10-year bond yield reached 2.49, the highest level in 29 years. European gas prices skyrocketed +18% during Asian hours on Monday morning.
• Deloitte’s scenario analysis offers striking figures for this world: in a continued conflict scenario (oil at $175), GDP growth drops to -2.8% (by December 2026), unemployment rises by +6.8 points, and CPI climbs to +7.5%. The only warning noted in the table: government policy responses were not included in the model.

2.2 Earnings Season: Time for a Stress Test

• The fact that the Q1 earnings season coincides exactly with the war period is not a conscious timing, but it is valuable in terms of showing the actual damage to the sector. Goldman Sachs reports earnings today, with JPMorgan and others reporting tomorrow. Investors will focus on two things: (1) loan loss provisions—how many troubled loans banks are seeing; (2) consumer fatigue—are gasoline prices crushing spending power.

2.3 Clarity Act: The Bright Side for Crypto

• Senator Bill Hagerty announced that the Clarity Act has secured bipartisan support and could go to a vote this week. This bill is positioned as the most comprehensive crypto regulation in the US: a stablecoin framework + digital asset classification. This development, ignored by the market amidst macroeconomic chaos, prepares the legal ground for institutional entry in the future.

3. CRYPTO: TRENDLINE REJECTION AND STRATEGY

3.1 BTC’s Encounter with the 6-Month Trendline

• The downward trendline, descending since the $126K peak in October 2025, was tested this week, and the price retreated. In technical terms, this movement is defined as a “trendline rejection”: sellers took control exactly where the bear market trend expected. Unless there is a close above the trendline with strong volume, the general trend remains technically down.
• BTC simultaneously maintains its position above the EMA 20 ($70,106) and EMA 50 ($70,738). $70K is vital to sustain the uptrend. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity: $65K is solid support, ‘paper hands’ have left the market, base formation continues, but a catalyst is needed for a new rally. If $68K breaks, it opens the path to $62K; on the upside, the trendline + $73K form a double wall.

3.2 Strategy: 766,970 BTC and ‘Think Bigger’

• Michael Saylor posted ‘think bigger’ on Sunday (as he has done before every major purchase since 2020). MicroStrategy holds 766,970 BTC with an average cost of $75,644. At the current price, there is an unrealized loss of $14.5 billion. The March monthly purchase was 46,233 BTC; almost three times the production of all miners (16,200).

3.3 WLFI–Justin Sun Dispute: A Structural Issue That Cannot Be Ignored

• Justin Sun ($80M), the largest investor in World Liberty Financial (a DeFi project linked to the Trump family), announced that the project secretly added a ‘blacklist’ and confiscation mechanism to its own token reserve. According to findings by on-chain analyst banteg: this mechanism was not in the original token contract; it was added in v2 one week before the token opened for trading. Sun’s assets were frozen. This case raises serious questions about politically connected crypto projects. Additionally, on Saturday, the WLFI project borrowed $75 million in stablecoins by using its own token as collateral. This has created significant question marks about the project. WLFI is a project associated with the Trump family.

4. COMMODITIES

4.1 Oil: The Return of the $100+ Era with the Blockade

• WTI $104.72, Brent $102+. Oil, which is up a total of +55% since the war began, recouped almost all of last week’s -11% relief in a single day. The market has largely returned to pre-ceasefire conditions; this time, the US also blocked 2 million barrels of daily Iranian oil. The most critical risk for Asian markets: the energy imports of Japan, India, and South Korea pass through this strait.
• Goldman Sachs had previously lowered its Q2 Brent forecast from $99 to $90; this forecast will likely be revised back up due to the blockade.

4.2 Gold: A Real Safe-Haven Problem

• Spot gold retreated to the 4716 level, the lowest since April 7. It has dropped 11% since the war began. The primary factor: oil is rising, inflation is rising, the Fed cannot cut rates; pressure continues on gold, which offers no yield. Unexpected correlations emerged as EM (emerging market) central banks sold gold to support their currencies.
• Energy-based inflation is temporary; if de-escalation begins, demand for gold will return.

4.3 Silver, Copper, Wheat

• Silver is at $74.35, down -2%, below the EMA 20. Copper is resilient at $5.88, above the EMA 20—the AI infrastructure demand story continues independently of the blockade. Wheat has turned in the opposite direction: following last week’s decline with the ceasefire, the food shipment risk premium is re-forming with the blockade.

5. CALENDAR OF THE WEEK

Date	Data / Event	Importance
Today, Apr 13	Goldman Sachs earnings	Q1 crisis-period earnings season begins
Tuesday, Apr 14	JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo, BlackRock	Loan loss provisions, consumer status
Wednesday, Apr 15	Bank of America, Morgan Stanley	General outlook of the banking sector
Tuesday, Apr 14	Clarity Act Senate vote	Critical for crypto regulation
Tuesday, Apr 14	US Producer Price Index (PPI) + China Q1 GDP	Inflation channel and global growth
Tuesday, Apr 22	New US–Iran deadline	Escalation or negotiation after the blockade