Global Market Outlook: The “TACO Trade,” Geopolitical Pivot Points, and the Lebanon Ceasefire

Friday, April 17, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, macro trends, and the crypto decoupling.

1. MAIN AGENDA

The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect yesterday at 17:00 ET (22:00 TSİ). Trump announced on Truth Social that he would soon invite both leaders to the White House, writing, “Both sides want PEACE.” This development is significant: the spokesperson for the Iranian parliament had previously set a halt to Israeli attacks in Lebanon as a prerequisite for starting US-Iran negotiations. In this sense, the Lebanon ceasefire serves as a structural step opening the way for official negotiations.

However, the permanence of the ceasefire remains a question mark. According to reports, the US informed some European allies that they would delay arms shipments purchased under the Foreign Military Sales program but not yet delivered. Meanwhile, at an event in Las Vegas, Trump stated that “the war is going very well, it will be over soon,” and made a new claim regarding Iran: he said Tehran agreed to reopen Hormuz, deliver nuclear material, and abandon its nuclear program. Iran has not confirmed these claims.

Markets are pricing this uncertainty through a familiar pattern. Economists call this the “TACO trade,” short for “Trump always chickens out.” The reference point is what happened during the customs tariff crisis in April 2025: when the index dropped by 12%, Trump declared a 90-day freeze, and stocks experienced one of their largest daily rallies to date. Markets have internalized this reflex and are pricing war news not as a permanent threat, but as a temporary headache. However, as Rob Williams, Chief Investment Strategist at Sage Advisory, reminds us, the Iran war has already caused damage to growth; the risk of growth staying below 2% for two quarters will have to be faced.

2. MACRO FRAMEWORK

The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 7,041 for the second consecutive day; the Nasdaq won for the 12th day, breaking its longest winning streak since 2009 and closing at a historic high of 24,102. The Dow Jones recorded a limited gain at 48,578. This performance is occurring in an environment where Hormuz is still effectively closed and the IEA has certified the largest oil supply disruption in history. As summarized by Joe Seydl, Senior Market Economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, the stock market is pricing 6 to 12 months ahead, not today; the market knows this cast and is just waiting for the script to be read.

The MSCI All Country World Index broke a record at yesterday’s close; in Asia, regional indices fell by around 0.8% accompanied by slight profit-taking. The Dollar Index is at 98.24, its lowest level since early March.

On the oil side, Brent fell by 1.35% to $98.14. Trump’s “war is going very well” statement and the news of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire created enough pressure to keep oil below the $100 resistance, despite Hormuz remaining effectively closed. The deep contrast between the pessimistic rhetoric of central banks and policymakers regarding the conflict and the market’s optimistic pricing appears “quite reckless.”

3. CRYPTO

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $75,000 resistance. This level was approached twice during the week, with pullbacks occurring each time. On-chain data clearly reveals the source of this resistance: the “True Market Mean” indicator, which tracks the average cost basis of active investors, indicates that the majority of active BTC holders are currently under loss. Since 2016, long periods spent below this metric have coincided with periods like the 2018–19 bear market and the 2022 FTX collapse. Parallel to this, the exponential moving average of the 30-day realized profit/loss ratio is at 1.16; as long as this ratio stays above 1, it means investors are selling into strength.

However, there is a notable counter-signal: funding rates for Binance BTC perpetual futures contracts have hit 2023 lows. This means the market is heavily positioned in short selling. If Bitcoin manages to hold its ground while this picture continues, short positions could be rapidly liquidated, accelerating the upward move; some analysts predict $125,000 within a 30 to 60-day perspective. The two readings are not contradictory: selling pressure fed by on-chain weakness and a sharp rally driven by a short squeeze could occur simultaneously; however, which scenario dominates will likely depend on the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations this weekend.

Additionally, the US government moved 8 BTC related to the 2016 Bitfinex hack to Coinbase Prime. This transfer cannot be interpreted as potential selling pressure: the federal court ruling requires that these coins not be sold but returned exactly as they are to Bitfinex. Bitfinex will use the returned amount first to fully redeem Recovery Right Tokens, and then allocate at least 80% of the remaining amount to UNUS SED LEO token buybacks and burns. The current value of the 119,756 BTC stolen in 2016 is around $8.9 billion.

XRP is the best performer among major crypto assets this week, up 6.4%. The price rose to $1.43; however, the rise appears to be a controlled accumulation with low volume, lacking speculative momentum. According to Coindesk analysis, this weak participation, hovering at about 70% of the weekly average volume, indicates that the breakout has not yet been confirmed. The 1.44 resistance is critical; this zone must be crossed with strong volume, otherwise, there is a risk of a pullback if market momentum weakens.

4. COMMODITIES

Gold appears stuck between the EMA 20 (4,752) and EMA 50 (4,779) averages; the contribution of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire to the peace process caused a marginal decrease in safe-haven buying. However, as long as Hormuz remains closed and the second round of negotiations has not reached a conclusion, it is difficult to draw a ceiling on the geopolitical risk premium on gold. This weekend is critical: a positive development could create pressure towards 4,750 and below, while a negative development brings the 4,860 re-test scenario back.

Silver temporarily crossed the 80.80 resistance but closed below this level and is currently at $78.75. EMA 20 (76.35) and EMA 50 (77.51) are solid support levels; RSI is in the neutral-strong zone at 54.5. According to FXStreet’s technical analysis, the rising triangle formation is intact; breaking 80.80 could open the way to the March high of $85.46. It is evaluated that silver offers a more favorable risk/reward profile compared to gold at this stage.

Copper continues to close significantly above all EMAs. China’s first-quarter growth, which was above expectations, reinforces structural demand expectations. China’s GDP data came in export-oriented; although domestic consumption remains slow, local industrial demand for copper remains strong.

Wheat showed the most remarkable commodity performance of the week: ZW futures rose to 606’2. It is significantly above the EMA 20 (592’4) and EMA 50 (580’4) averages; the side effects of the Hormuz blockade on grain corridors and agricultural supply chains keep the war premium alive among market players tracking Black Sea grain flows.

5. WEEKLY CALENDAR

Date	Event	Expectations / Notes
April 17–18 (This Weekend)	US–Iran Second Round Negotiations (Pakistan)	Trump said “probably this weekend.” Reopening Hormuz and ending the nuclear weapons program are non-negotiable US demands.
April 21	Ceasefire Deadline	If the second round of talks is held this weekend, the duration may be extended. If no results are obtained and talks collapse, oil could rapidly exceed $100.
April 27–28	BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting	Ueda did not signal a rate hike; expectations for an April move have decreased. Yen is at 159.48.
April 30	ECB Monetary Policy Meeting	Council members signaled a “cautious approach.” The energy shock weakened expectations for a rate cut.
May 15	Powell’s Term Ends	Trump named Warsh as a candidate. Concerns over Fed independence remain a risk factor for the dollar and bond markets.