Market Analysis: Record Closings vs. Rising Energy Risks and Fed Hawkishness

Thursday, April 23, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical shifts, naval blockades, and the energy-driven inflation outlook.

1. Hormuz Tensions Hit Risk Appetite

The optimism sparked by Trump’s announcement on Tuesday evening regarding an indefinite ceasefire extension remained positive throughout Wednesday; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record closings. However, news arriving Wednesday night and Thursday morning swiftly dampened risk appetite. First, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard opened fire on three vessels in Hormuz and escorted two into Iranian waters. Subsequently, Reuters reported that the U.S. seized at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters—marking the first time the U.S. naval blockade has expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The diplomatic arm of the process has also stalled: the U.S. delegation led by Vance canceled its Tuesday visit to Pakistan after Iran refused to send a delegation. Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf announced that a full ceasefire is only possible if the U.S. lifts the naval blockade. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump has not set a specific deadline for the Iran proposal. The market is now pricing in concerns over whether the “ceasefire + blockade” status quo will become permanent.

Brent crude surged back above $100—for the first time in over two weeks. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, noted: “Brent’s return to triple digits has brought inflation concerns to the forefront and pushed gold back.” According to a Reuters economist poll, the Fed is expected to wait at least another 6 months for the first rate cut; the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 21%. Prior to the conflict, two cuts were expected in 2026.

2. Ceasefire Hopes Fade as US-Iran Standoff Deepens

Trump’s ceasefire extension decision was met with enthusiasm on Wall Street on Wednesday: the S&P 500 rose 1%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, and the Dow 0.7%. The S&P 500 marked its eighth record close of 2026, while the Nasdaq saw its fourth. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, said: “The ceasefire extension doesn’t really bring clarity, but for now, it’s enough for the market. Risk appetite is back.” Boeing shares rose 5.5% as it narrowed its losses and accelerated gross jet sales. Mega-cap tech (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) pulled the indices higher.

However, the Asian session opened mixed on Thursday morning and turned negative during the day. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI initially reached record levels—KOSPI hit a record 6,557—but profit-taking began following the Hormuz news. KOSPI fell 0.61%, Nikkei 1%, and Hang Seng 1.12%. European and U.S. futures are trading in the red: Dow futures are down 281 points (0.6%), S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.3%. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, stated: “The U.S. blockade moving beyond the Strait of Hormuz is a first. This will complicate peace talks and directly affect global trade flows.”

Tesla’s earnings report was released after yesterday’s close. Revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations, and the stock rose in after-hours trading. However, the company’s warning that 2026 capital expenditures would increase reignited concerns about how much mega-cap companies plan to invest in AI. Brian Vendig, CIO of MJP Wealth Advisors, commented: “Once the headlines settled, investors returned to fundamentals. Tech is seeing buying interest this month because it was heavily oversold in the early months of the year.”

3. Bitcoin Pulls Back Below 80K

Bitcoin touched $79,388 on Wednesday night but retreated before reaching the $80,000 threshold. On Thursday morning, it is trading at $77,687—up 0.4% in 24 hours but approximately $1,900 below yesterday’s peak. The price range is narrowing and momentum is slowing. Other majors are negative: ETH -0.7% ($2,344), XRP -1.7% ($1.42), SOL -1.5% ($85.83), BNB -0.6% ($635). Although BTC stands out with the best performance of the week (+4%), the rally’s concentration solely in BTC indicates narrow buying rather than broad-based excitement. Funding rates remaining negative for 47 days—a near-record streak—supports this positioning read.

The price action approaching $80,000 is interpreted by some as a sign of the digital asset industry’s maturation and institutional participation. This framework is difficult to reconcile with a market where BTC stands alone, altcoin participation remains limited, and derivative positioning remains bearish. Technical outlook: A close below $76,000 would mean $79,388 was the peak for this move. For further upside, either concrete progress on Iran or a return of real capital to the funding rate table is required.

Funding rate note of the week: According to Bloomberg data, BTC perpetual futures funding rates have been negative for 47 days—meaning the market is concentrating on the short side despite rising prices. This leads to one of two scenarios: either a massive short squeeze occurs if the price continues to rise, or a new leg down begins if the price falls below $76,000. Bitcoin dominance holds above 58%—major resistance is at 61.41%; altcoin season is still far off.

4. Oil Tops $100, Metals Weaken

Gold retreated to $4,716 (-0.5%). Brent’s return above $100 strengthened the outlook for inflation and higher interest rates, putting pressure on gold. Tim Waterer from KCM Trade noted: “Investors fear that if this ceasefire-plus-blockade balance persists for months, a short-term price spike will turn into a long-term inflation anchor. This is bad for gold in terms of yield.” Technical levels: The $4,537 decision zone remains the main support; a break below opens the $4,357 target. Warsh’s Fed chairmanship confirmation process is critical for the short-term outlook, amid Powell’s May 15 term end and investigation uncertainties.

Silver is seeing a sharp reversal, falling to $76.22 (-1.9%), erasing yesterday’s gains. After a 3.8% drop on Monday, it recovered 2.19% on Wednesday but is being sold again this morning. Yesterday was significant for the structure: dropping below the EMA20 ($76.99) is a condition for invalidating the LONG thesis. The $80.80 resistance was not reached, and the ascending triangle formation broke to the downside. Platinum fell 1.8% to $2,037, and palladium dropped 2.1% to $1,513. The precious metal complex generally cannot withstand the oil-induced inflation shock; yield competition is taking its toll.

Major structural news in the copper sector: China announced it will stop exporting sulfuric acid starting next month. Sulfur is sent from the Persian Gulf to China, converted to sulfuric acid there, and used globally in the copper leaching process. Sean Brodrick of Weiss Rating Daily said: “15-20% of global primary copper supply is vulnerable to this chemical bottleneck. Chile, Congo, and Zambia are the main risk areas.” This news, combined with Hormuz-related sulfur flow disruptions, strengthens the structural upside thesis for copper. COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) is the suggested instrument for this narrative.

The structure in wheat remains intact. As long as Hormuz remains closed and the ceasefire-blockade status quo persists, the agricultural supply premium will remain embedded. The strong structure above the EMAs has not changed.

5. CRITICAL CALENDAR OF THE WEEK

Date	Event	Expectations / Notes
April 23 — Today	Intel Q1 Earnings	Conference at 5:00 PM ET. Chip shortages are expected to ease throughout the year. Semiconductor outlook is critical following Tesla’s capex warning.
April 23 — Today	Airline Earnings (American, Southwest)	High jet fuel costs (Brent >$100) are putting heavy pressure on airlines. United Airlines lowered its 2026 forecast yesterday. The impact of price hikes on demand will be monitored.
Ongoing	Hormuz Tension	Iran fired on 3 ships and seized 2 in Hormuz yesterday. The U.S. seized 3 tankers in Asian waters—blockade expanded beyond Hormuz. Negotiations are effectively stalled.
Ongoing	Tesla Q1 Post-Earnings Adjustments	Revenue beat expectations, stock rose after-hours, but the 2026 capex warning reignited AI investment scale concerns.
Throughout Week	Shift in Fed Rate Expectations	Reuters poll: Fed will wait at least 6 more months. Chance of a 25bp cut in Dec fell to 21%. Energy shock increases inflation stickiness.