Global Market Outlook: Trump’s Ceasefire Extension, Macro Resilience, and Crypto Legal Shifts

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 Your daily briefing on the indefinite ceasefire extension, consumer resilience, and high-stakes crypto litigation.

1. MAIN AGENDA

A surprise announcement from Trump on Tuesday evening shifted the market tone: Trump announced that he has extended the two-week ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. Trump cited the “severely fractured” nature of the administration in Tehran as the reason, stating he is providing time for negotiations to continue. The announcement came just before the market-anticipated deadline of Wednesday, April 22, and significantly supported short-term risk appetite.

However, this is a unilateral step. It remains uncertain whether Iran or Israel will officially accept the extension; the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed. The US delegation led by Vance delayed its visit to Islamabad yesterday, and Brent crude briefly touched $100 amid fears that talks had collapsed. Following the extension decision, oil pulled back to around $98, while S&P 500 futures rose +0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained +0.6%.

Markets, which sold off sharply over the weekend, returned to a recovery momentum this morning. Yet the structural problem remains: the closure of Hormuz imposes a daily cost on the global economy. United Airlines lowered its 2026 profit forecasts yesterday due to jet fuel costs, and manufacturers in Yiwu, China’s Christmas decoration hub, are reporting that US buyers are postponing orders.

2. MACRO FRAMEWORK

Wall Street faced slight selling pressure on Tuesday: the Dow fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.63%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.59%. The Nasdaq’s longest winning streak since 1992 (13 days) ended on Monday. Apple stock fell 2.5% following news that Tim Cook will hand over his role to John Ternus in September. Trump’s ceasefire extension announcement came immediately after the closing bell; S&P 500 futures turned 0.4% higher overnight.

The Asian opening is mixed this morning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new record (59,691), settling at record levels following Japan’s trade data. On the other hand, Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.42%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.98%—profit-taking in indices that had rallied sharply last week.

Kevin Warsh passed his “independence test” during his hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh stated he had “made no promises to Trump regarding interest rate cuts” and emphasized central bank independence. Democrats, meanwhile, questioned his personal assets reaching up to $200 million and his ties to hedge fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. Republican Thom Tillis reiterated his opposition to the confirmation until the Department of Justice investigation into Powell is concluded. The committee has not yet set a final vote date; Warsh’s confirmation will likely surpass the May 15 expiration of Powell’s term.

March retail sales released on Tuesday came in above expectations: a 1.7% monthly increase, the strongest monthly gain in a year. The expectation was +1.6%. This is one of the best retail sales reports in recent months. Sales grew by over 4% compared to this time last year. This data should reassure those concerned about demand destruction from the Iran conflict. High tax refunds and the pullback in oil prices continue to support the spending outlook. The data strengthened the consumer resilience thesis ahead of the Fed’s May meeting—which pushed down rate cut expectations and provided support to the dollar.

3. CRYPTO

Bitcoin climbed above $78,150 this morning, showing a +2.9% 24-hour and +5.3% weekly performance. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced it purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion at an average of $74,395—the company’s largest purchase since November 2024. The total position is now 815,061 BTC and is in net profit for the first time in months with a cost basis of $61.6 billion. According to CoinShares data, global crypto funds saw net inflows of $1.4 billion last week—the strongest week since mid-January. BTC received $1.12 billion, ETH $328 million. XRP saw net outflows of $56 million, and SOL $2 million.

Structural signals support the continuation of the trend. BTC is holding above the short-term holder realized price of $69,400; recent buyers are sitting in profit rather than loss—this historically reduces the likelihood of capital liquidation. A Nomura survey shows that 65% of Japanese institutional investors hold Bitcoin for portfolio diversification, 31% view the market outlook positively, and most plan a 2-5% BTC allocation in their portfolios over the next three years. $80,000 is the critical threshold to break the 46-day negative funding rate streak; if a short squeeze is fully triggered, the target zone extends to $81,000-$84,000.

On the regulatory front, April was definitely lost for the Clarity Act, but according to a Galaxy research note, the window hasn’t completely closed. A Senate Banking Committee hearing in May could still make it possible for the bill to reach a Senate floor vote by July. The sticking point is Republican Senator Thom Tillis’s negotiations with the banking sector regarding stablecoin reward programs. Galaxy: “The probability of it being signed in 2026 is about 50%, possibly lower. The uncertainty stems not from a single issue, but from numerous issues that must be resolved sequentially under intense time pressure.” The post-election lame-duck session in November may remain a last resort.

A prominent news item on the legal front: Justin Sun, founder of the Tron blockchain, has filed a lawsuit against World Liberty Financial (WLFI), backed by the Trump family. Sun reportedly invested $45 million in WLFI tokens in 2024. The indictment alleges that WLFI management is engaged in an “illegal scheme to seize property,” claiming the company added a “blacklist” function to the token smart contract in August 2025, granting the power to freeze tokens in specific wallets. According to Sun, this change was not submitted to a management vote and was not disclosed to investors. The allegation also states that WLFI pressured Sun to mint $200 million worth of USD1 stablecoins on Tron. Sun further claims that Chase Herro threatened to report him to US authorities. A WLFI spokesperson did not comment. The lawsuit may increase regulatory skepticism toward politically connected crypto projects.

4. COMMODITIES

Gold recovered from Tuesday’s lows to around $4,765; as oil pulled back following the ceasefire extension news, inflationary pressures eased. With the extension, the market perceives a path out of the crisis. If the ceasefire ends and clashes resume, the dollar would strengthen, oil and interest rates would rise, putting pressure on gold. The EMA50 ($4,779) acts as resistance just above the price, while the EMA20 ($4,759) serves as support. Standard Chartered: “Precious metal prices are dependent on Middle East ceasefire headlines and liquidity needs. Recent upward movements are fragile and carry short-term correction risks; however, we still expect precious metals to recover, specifically expecting gold to retest record levels.”

Silver plummeted 3.8% on Tuesday to as low as $76.55 (the sharpest daily drop in a month) but recovered 2.19% this morning to $78.47. DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman: “Uncertainty regarding the potential extension as the ceasefire was set to expire is keeping investors cautious. A dovish signal from the Warsh hearing could compress Treasury yields, creating a supportive floor for silver.” The structural thesis remains: according to Silver Institute data, the 2026 silver market deficit rose to 46.3 million ounces (a 15% increase from 40.3 million ounces in 2025); the sixth consecutive annual deficit. COMEX registered inventory fell to 76 million ounces—covering only 13.4% of the open interest. Fibonacci support chains: $80 resistance (50-day EMA), $70 triple-tested support, $65 200-day EMA. The gap between BofA’s $135-$309 target range and the Reuters poll median of $79.50 indicates the market is dislocated.

Platinum rose 1.7% to $2,070, and palladium increased 1.9% to $1,561. Both industrial metals moved in parallel with silver: the softening of oil + dollar weakness provided collective support to precious metals this morning.

Copper is at $6.1107; the price is above all EMA20 ($5.92), EMA50 ($5.83), and EMA200 ($5.456) averages. The $6.20 resistance is being tested; if broken, the March peak ($6.60) is targeted. China’s Q1 GDP and demand for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips reinforce the structural copper thesis.

Wheat pulled back slightly to close at 611’4, but the structural outlook is maintained: the price is above all EMAs. As long as Hormuz remains closed, the agricultural supply chain premium will remain embedded in prices.

5. WEEKLY CALENDAR

Date	Event	Expectation / Note
Apr 22 — Today	Tesla Q1 Earnings (After close)	Webcast 17:30 ET. Opening of the Magnificent 7 earnings season. Focus on weak EV sales, Intel chip partnership, and SpaceX IPO expectations. Stock fell -2.5% yesterday.
Apr 22 — Today	IBM, AT&T, Boeing, ServiceNow earnings	A busy earnings day. Over 30 major companies, including Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research, will report.
Apr 23	Intel Q1 + Airline Earnings	American Airlines and Southwest. United Airlines lowered 2026 guidance yesterday (jet fuel). Chip shortages at Intel are expected to ease.
This Week	Ceasefire & Hormuz Situation	Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely yesterday. Hormuz is effectively closed. US blockade continues. Vance team’s Pakistan visit is delayed.
May	Clarity Act Committee Stage	Approval was missed in April. Committee action in May provides a chance for the process to continue. Galaxy: ~50% chance of enactment in 2026.