Global Markets Report: Record Highs Amid Geopolitical Ceasefire and Macro Shifts

Thursday, April 16, 2026 Your daily briefing on geopolitical breakthroughs, historic market peaks, and the evolving crypto landscape.

1. MAIN AGENDA

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs last night. The Nasdaq closed higher for the 11th consecutive day, marking a record close above the 24,000 level, while the S&P 500 crossed the 7,000 threshold to record a new historic high. This rally was directly fueled by news of an “agreement in principle” regarding the extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. This news once again proved how eager markets are to price in the effective end of the war.

Last night on Truth Social, Trump announced that the first direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in over thirty years would take place today in Washington. Trump also reiterated that the Iranian war is “very close to an end.” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt announced that the second round of negotiations would likely be held in Pakistan again. However, it is known that in the first round of talks, the U.S. delegation did not compromise on the reopening of Hormuz and Iran’s complete abandonment of its nuclear weapons program; until this structural deadlock is resolved, any headline agreement may provide short-term relief but may not be sufficient for long-term pricing.

On the other hand, in an interview at the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings, World Bank President Banga stated that even if the current fragile ceasefire becomes permanent and Hormuz reopens, conflict-related economic disruptions will last for months. Banga’s warning serves as a significant counterweight to the actual economic picture underlying the stock market rally.

2. MACRO FRAMEWORK

GDP data from China exceeded expectations: the national statistics bureau announced that growth in the first quarter of the year was 5%; the Reuters poll average was 4.8%, and the previous quarter was 4.5%. Growth continued to be export-led, while domestic demand remained slow. This picture pushed up industrial commodity prices, especially copper; however, it is emphasized that the increase in energy costs caused by the Iran war continues to put pressure on the import-dependent Chinese economy.

Tensions are rising on the Fed front. Trump threatened to fire Powell again last night and stated that the investigation into the renovation of the central bank building should continue. Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15; Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his successor. Markets know that Powell’s era is now in its final days; the real uncertainty lies in which direction Warsh’s policy line will take shape. Any change in the perception of Fed independence remains a risk factor for the dollar and bond markets.

The dollar fell for the ninth day, retreating to a six-week low. This long-term weakening provides structural support for assets priced in dollars, such as gold and silver. ECB council members, meanwhile, announced a cautious stance ahead of the late April meeting; high energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty act as barriers to bringing forward potential interest rate cuts.

In the earnings season, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report today. It will be monitored whether the general picture in the sector maintains the line of resilience revealed by JPMorgan and Wells Fargo data; credit quality and signs of a slowdown in consumer spending will be the most sensitive indicators.

3. CRYPTO

Bitcoin is stalling at the $75,000 resistance for the second time. This level has been rejected multiple times over the last two months, with every breakout attempt ending in this zone. On Tuesday, BTC briefly rose to $76,786; according to on-chain data, investors realized approximately $1.14 billion in profit that day, marking the highest single-day profit-taking of the year. The 30-day exponential moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio is still at 1.16, indicating that investors are systematically selling against strengthening prices.

Funding rates in Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts are still negative, while open interest has declined slightly. This suggests that short position holders are resisting the rally. Additionally, one-month implied volatility is below three-month volatility; the 30-day delta-25 risk reversal continues to indicate that demand for downside protection exceeds the upside premium. In short: while a spot rally occurs, derivative markets remain cautious.

Jasper de Maere from Wintermute stated that $72,000 is a critical support; staying above this level keeps the breakout narrative healthy, while a break below could send Bitcoin back into low-volatility consolidation.

The Ethereum front presents a different picture. ETH gained 8.1% this week, outperforming XRP’s 3.6% and Bitcoin’s 5.4% weekly returns. The ETH/BTC ratio rose to 0.0315; analysts state that the weekly close must reach 0.035 to confirm a permanent reversal. Ethereum’s on-chain activity (200.4 million recorded transactions and $180 billion in stablecoin supply) proves that fundamental dynamics are trending well above the valuation. The key test analysts point to is this: if ETH can stand firmer than Bitcoin during the next moment of selling pressure, it is an indicator that capital rotation is real; if they collapse together, it means ETH has merely moved with Bitcoin’s high beta.

4. COMMODITIES

Gold is rising as the dollar index retreats to a six-week low. The price is holding above the EMA 20 (4,752) and EMA 50 (4,780) averages. Inflation concerns, cooled by peace expectations, weakened the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, and gold benefited. However, if the ceasefire becomes permanent, the risk of a reversal in safe-haven-driven buying should not be ignored.

Silver is approaching critical resistance at $80.80 in an ascending triangle pattern. According to FXStreet technical analysis, a break of this level could initiate a new move targeting the March high of $85.46. The 20-day EMA ($76.29) and the ascending trend line are in a solid support position; the RSI is at 57, outside the overbought zone. The combination of dollar weakness and Iran optimism creates an attractive risk/reward conjuncture for silver.

The China GDP surprise was decisive for copper. China’s 5% growth (the world’s largest copper importer performing above expectations) kept the price significantly above all short and medium-term averages. The RSI is strong at 67.5 but does not give an overbought signal. The medium-term structural outlook for industrial demand also stands out in June contracts.

Wheat follows a limited course while maintaining its war premium. ZW futures are above the EMA 20 and 50 averages. The impact of ceasefire news on the grain corridor is not yet clear; therefore, the market prefers to wait for a concrete development for direction.

5. WEEKLY CALENDAR

Date	Event	Expectation / Note
Apr 16 – Today	Israel–Lebanon Talks (Washington)	First direct contact in over 30 years. Trump seeks “breathing room.” May impact regional risk premium.
Apr 17–18	U.S.–Iran 2nd Round Negotiations (Pakistan)	Agreement “in principle” reached; talks reconvene in Islamabad. Hormuz and nuclear files are key.
Apr 21	Ceasefire Deadline	Term extended this week; however, structural issues remain unresolved. Critical date; most sensitive trigger for crude oil.
Apr 30	ECB Monetary Policy Meeting	Council members signaled a “cautious approach.” Rate cut expectations are weakening as inflation pressure persists.
Weekly	U.S. Crude Oil Stock Change	Supply disruption under blockade is the largest in history (10.1M barrels/day). Inventory data is more critical than ever.